286. Colonel Khazan on Peace, Unmanned Systems, and Ukraine's Future
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Hello and welcome to Battleground Ukraine. In today's episode, we're finally bringing you a conversation that's been a long time coming, an insightful discussion recorded back in January when we were on the ground in Kiev. Despite the delay in its release, the insights shared remain incredibly relevant and offer a crucial perspective on the ongoing conflict and the future of Ukraine.

So join us as we sit down with an old friend of the podcast, Colonel Pavlo Hazan. So we're back in Kiev and we're very delighted to have remade the acquaintance of Colonel Pavlo Hazan, who listeners who've been with us for a long time will remember first appeared on the podcast in the summer of 2022.

He's made many appearances since then, but we met in person, of course, on our last trip to Kyiv in the summer of 2023. And here we are 16 months later and we meet again at a, you know, possibly a hinge moment in the war. Any time will tell. Patrick and I are not so foolish as to make predictions about what's going to happen in the war. But anyway, momentous events could happen in 2025.

Pavlo, tell us what your current role is in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. My current role in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, I'm an electronic warfare officer and I'm serving in the general directorate of electronic and cyber warfare of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And currently I cannot tell you, of course, because it's a big part of my job.

It's not public, of course, but I'm responsible for electronic support. This is my current job.

And it's a particular couple of projects on electronic warfare. And this has been a hugely important part of the development of warfare for all nations. But of course, it's actually in the crucible of war in Ukraine, the use of unmanned systems, electronic warfare. The Russians have obviously been increasing their capability. And therefore, Ukraine has to stay one step ahead without going into any details, Pavlo.

Could you say as the situation is at the moment that you are still one step ahead? Yeah, actually electronic warfare as well as unmanned system on my mind are the most important and crucial issues in the war because this war is completely different than the Second World War. And we have to be much more smart.

because we have no enough personnel in the Ukrainian army. That is why as much as we will be creative and smart using most progressive and modern technologies,

in IT and electronics, we can win in this war. We've seen, Pablo, and certainly we've been covering on the podcast, we don't know anything about the secret details of what you personally have been doing. We do know that you used to be responsible for unmanned drones in the territorial force.

but we can see with our own eyes the success of the unmanned systems in the Ukrainian armed forces, the marine drones, which have made a mess of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, to say the least. And of course, these long range drones that we were hearing today can actually have capability to fly as far as 3000 kilometers and eventually go even further than that. Not only that, they can fly that distance and not

be destroyed. That's the real key. You can go as far as you like, but you've got to get to your target and then you've got to hit your target. And the result of all of this is that, as far as we can see, Russia's ability to fight its war is slowly being degraded. Of course, it's got its own economic problems, but if you can take out its oil, if you can destroy its support systems for its troops at the front, then sooner or later, this humanity

huge army which really relies on manpower and numbers to make any kind of progress at all will be forced to come to a grinding halt. So can you just say something in more general terms about that because it seems to us an astonishing achievement. Yeah, you're absolutely right because as I said unmanned systems and electronic warfare are the main keys and now what we can see on the battlefield is

unmanned systems now getting much more part of the war and even I can say eating some percentage from artillery from tanks from other forces because unmanned systems aerial system and ground system UAVs and UGVs and also marine system and crude systems they are very effective and very efficient

because we are spending less resources to create this system, to make these systems, and also to operate. Because if we target an armored vehicle or we target some electronic warfare or complex, it could cost a million of euros.

And the unmanned system, the striking drone could cost 1,000 euros. And this is, of course, very efficient. But we also looking on some combination of unmanned systems and electronic warfare.

And in the nearest time, I believe that such as combination of these technologies will be the main players on the battlefield. But as we were saying earlier on, Pavlo, before we began recording, even though you're having these great successes, the Russian way of making war really defies conventional thought, doesn't it? Or the normal rules of warfare, you could even say. Yeah.

Tell us a bit more about your analysis of that, the way that Russia is able in the 21st century to make war with this complete disregard for the

Lives of its own people. Yeah, I believe it's it's it's really very interesting phenomenon if we're talking with the scientific terms and this is the really serious topic for researching by historians by psychologists by other scientists why this nation and

could do that in the 21st century? And where this nation is mentally? Maybe 100 years before or 1,000 years in some middle age? It's a really interesting question and it is very important to answer on this question.

And it is not very regular logic because everybody would like to analyze this situation with Russians.

Using the normal logic that, yeah, according to normal logic, it is unbelievable how in the 21st century, one nation can destroy and would like to completely kill all the people of the neighbor country. It is, we can say that according to the human rules, according to the normal understanding, it is impossible. But nevertheless, it's possible. And it's possible anyway.

every day and everything what Russians doing they optimizing on all their resources for that war

So now the life of Russian Federation concentrating first of all on destroying Ukraine and on destroying the civilized world. Because this is not just Ukraine, because now we're talking about, of course, about the Russian war in Ukraine, but this is just the battlefield. This is just the front line for Russians, because this is the big war against civilized war. Because

This is the war in cyberspace. This is war in informational space as well. Now, we are at a hinge moment, as Saul says, 2025 is going to be

a very significant year, I think, for the war. Perhaps the year the war ends. We won't speculate about that. But there are really two possibilities going forward, aren't there? Knowing that America really is the most significant player on this side of the fence, of course, Putin on the other. So we've had two possible scenarios. One is that the

worst one one would imagine from your point of view that America or the Trump administration decides it's not going to carry on supporting Ukraine to the same level as it was or indeed not supporting it at all and sells it down the river effectively by making forcing you to come to terms that are going to be very disagreeable for you can you tell us about if that is the case will you go on fighting and

if so, how and if it's not the case and Trump does continue support in a significant way how that would change your situation as it's all how you would you would Work with that what your strategy would be if that was the case maybe start with a second one first so that the premise is that

Trump, despite the signals the country does carry on supporting, giving significant military support to Ukraine. How would the war develop in those circumstances? Of course Ukrainians have to continue the war because we have no other way because we have only one country where we can live. But at the same time there is some parallels with Second World War.

and participation of different countries, actually the United States in the Second World War. And it is just a question about where are these milestones of participation and participation with what conditions. Because on the one hand, it is...

not only challenging for Ukraine in case if American government will not support us with equipment and weapon,

Of course, it's a very big problem. Everybody understands that this is a terrible problem. But on the other hand, this is a very good chance for Europe because this Russian war is a war in Europe. It's not just a war in Ukraine. This is not a war on a small territory because this war in Europe, and this is not only our war, this is the war of all our friends.

And in that case, I believe that other countries will feel their responsibility, their concrete role in this war.

And as I said, this is not just only battlefield, but this is also the cyber war. This is also many different provocation on the borders because, for example, Russians, they jamming the neighbor countries in Nordic direction as well. So this is only some small cases what they are doing.

But this is also the destabilizing of political situation, social life in other countries. That is why the question that we have to estimate clearly

and we have to have the good prognosis. It is very important that this situation with American elections, we respect the choice of American people, of course, because this is their country, their choice. And this situation could give a very strong signal to Europe and to all European countries, because this is also our common responsibility to

to keep civilization here in Europe, to keep the world order stable. You seem to be suggesting, Pavlo, almost that Europe can't, Ukraine can't, Europe can't and shouldn't expect its security to be guaranteed by the United States in the long term.

And therefore, a withdrawal or at least an indication of withdrawal by Trump may be good for Europe in the long term. He's already said pretty robustly Europe's not paying enough for its defense. Why are U.S. taxpayers having to do? And this has clearly struck a chord with U.S. taxpayers. And slowly but surely, more of NATO has been.

begun to get close to the sort of sums necessary. But of course that was before there was an emergency against Russia. Now there's a real problem, isn't there, with, as you say, a voracious Russia that may not stop at Ukraine, if that's what it comes to. But I think the bigger question for all of us is, you have a son, you know, we were talking about your son Andrew, he's a sergeant training people to use unmanned systems. Obviously as a parent you would like the war to come to an end.

But every Ukrainian must be faced with the same problem as well as people serving with their children serving is that we're not going to accept a peace at any price. So I suppose what's really in the back of our minds is we're thinking or we were hoping that the war would come to a conclusion. But I'm guessing, I mean, this is my question to you. What sort of peace would you find acceptable in the short to medium term? It's really a very complex question. First of all, everybody in Ukraine would like to have a peace.

And it is absolutely logic. I would like that my son will demobilize and myself will be demobilized and we come back to our normal civilian life.

And we have enough interesting thing to do. At the same time, we understand that there is no any backgrounds now for stopping this war. And if we're talking about guarantees, it's very interesting questions about guarantees. Who could give you guarantee? And what guarantee is? Because if we're talking about some physical laws, yeah.

You can guarantee that this physical law can implement in that situation where this physical law works. But in this situation, it is impossible that somebody will guarantee something. What will be the background of these guarantees? Nuclear weapon.

or troops standing on the border, or unmanned systems, the terrible amount of unmanned systems which could be used against Russia. It is a very complex question because in the modern life,

There is no real guarantees which could guarantee you that the absolutely mad terroristic state and terroristic nation could give some actions against you. So that is why I believe that the only guarantee which we could have

to be prepared, to be enough power, and to have trained people, to have people ready, every citizen ready for mobilization, and to protect their motherland. If we need to have a guarantee, we need people ready to protect their houses, their country, their motherland. And this is a real issue, isn't it, Pavlo? And although Ukrainian forces have fought brilliantly, they've been innovative, they've

They've been bold. With the resources they've got, they've used them very cleverly by and large. But there is a fundamental structural problem with the military, isn't there? And part of that, a very large part of that, is the whole question of manpower, of training, and of a very simple situation that we find very surprising, which is that there are people like you in uniform doing your bit, your son doing his bit. All your friends, all your circle seem to have felt

felt the call of duty and obeyed it. But we also see, observationally, around on the streets, lots of young men who aren't in uniform, and this is a recognised problem. Can you tell us something about why that is and how you would deal with it in an ideal situation or a post-war situation when you're going to build up your defences again to, as you say, get that fundamental guarantee, which is your own actual resources are going to be

up to the job of deterring your neighbor. - Yeah, you are right. We are in the war since 2014, and Ukrainian society still not completely reconstructed or rebuilt according to the situation. And it is, on the one hand, it's really strange because for my understanding, it's absolutely clear that everybody have to protect their land.

It's clear for me, but it is not 100% clear for everybody. That is why it is necessary to change the education on different level and the training on different level. Finally, I think that we can come to the system like Israel has with the obligatory army service.

for men and for women, and not only obligatory service, but this is like a common understanding that this is our responsibility. This is not just responsibility of somebody. This is not just responsibility of the armed forces, which is very limited number of personnel, but this is the responsibility of everybody. And I believe that

This ideology should be also the idea of other European countries. Because we have known so many people in Europe. And that is why if we're talking about other countries, the situation will be the same like in Ukraine.

So how many people we can mobilize to oppose Russian army? So that is why we have to mobilize everybody who could be mobilized. Well, this is something that some of your neighbors have understood very well. I'm thinking of Poland and then further north in the Baltics.

So do you foresee a situation where you will have an alliance among these states who have got the message, who are already doing something about it in Poland? The military is actually a very attractive option if you're a young person now as a career, not just as something you do temporarily. So could you see some sort of Central European bulwark of strong militarized states emerging?

Coming into being and sometime in the fairly near future. Yeah, it's actually interesting about the militarization of states and it is also interesting is it Militarization because on the one hand yes, this is me the militarization on the other hand I believe that this is the increasing of responsibility. Yeah, it sounds like a pejorative term does that militarize but there's a better way of putting it which I think you yeah, it's like people understand what

what state is for them. Because if I'm responsible for that state, what is my clear responsibility? Just to go to the work and to pay taxes and to be a good citizen, to follow rules and legislation? But this is not enough. So this is the principal change we

which we learned from Russian war in Ukraine, that this is not enough. So our responsibility also should be the protection of our land. And that is why, yes, it's more understandable for, I believe it's very clear for British, it's clear for Nordic countries, for Poland, for Baltic, but it's less clear for other countries, unfortunately. And I believe it's also clear

the role of Ukrainian people to bring these ideas and to promote these ideas because we are feeling that every day since 2014 and we are participating, we are also in all this situation now but it is not very clear for people in other countries because they are not getting missiles and shakets every day

It is a bit different to be in Ukraine or to be in other countries. Nevertheless, I believe that we will come to this understanding and we will come to that system. It is, of course, not everybody would like to serve in the army. It was also not my dream.

as well and dream of my son Andrew and of my family but nevertheless it is the real situation what we faced in 21st century okay we'll take a break there do join us in a moment

So you mentioned your son Andrew and you also told us that he volunteered at the age I think of 23 which of course is before he needed to the limit for conscription then was 27 it's now down to 25. External voices have called for it to be reduced even lower. What's the feeling generally within the armed forces and your own personal feeling as to whether or not that age should come down further?

If you're talking about the changing the age, I believe, first of all, this is not the question of the age. This is the question of changing all the system of mobilization and the understanding in the society. I believe we need to pay much more attention into educational process.

to convince people that this is also their responsibility. And this is not like your lottery that people just came to the service and you are good or bad in this lottery. But

it should be in the understanding of people that this is a part of their life. And this is again what the example for me, the Israeli society in that sense is an example for me because

for them is there is no any discussion if their children sons and daughters and grandsons and granddaughters have to serve in Israel army. Pavlo the last thought from me I mean we've come over as Patrick says possibly a momentous time I mean the new Trump

presidency. He is determined, at least he's gone on the record as being determined, to bring peace to Ukraine. But of course, we're all asking the same question at what price. Is it acceptable at all for the Ukrainian nation, for politicians and the people who the politicians in the end are answerable to, including those serving in the armed forces, to

to get anywhere close to what some of the trump advisors have suggested which is a freezing of the lines as they are at the moment then we'll talk about things in the future and we'll give some kind of security guarantees you've already mentioned it's almost impossible for external forces to give guarantees that that's happened before with the budapest memorandum i seem to remember and and you know all our listeners will know uh

that that didn't work out so well. So is that pie in the sky really that the Americans can get any can get the Ukrainians to agree or the Russians for that matter, those sort of terms? I believe that we should first of all to read on the proposals because still no any proposals. It's still talking of the possible peace, but the possible peace could be based on some background. And what is about the background of this possible peace?

Are you sure that Russians could guarantee something? You believe that the administration of the Russian Federation could guarantee ceasefire? No.

We had this experience since 2014. It was Minsk agreements and it was many times that it was declared ceasefire. And I remember how in Ukrainian armed forces how was organized the special peacekeepers, like peacekeepers who are visiting the front line and they are looking on the situation.

If we're talking about the war with the zero line of the war, yeah, it's possible, theoretically it's possible. But again, what will be the guarantees? Because if we will stop somewhere and we will stop our fire,

We understand that Russians will prepare new and new capabilities. So we should not underestimate them because they are working on their capabilities in every sphere. Not only preparing new or mobilizing new personnel, but they are working on electronic warfare, on unmanned systems, on producing new missiles, on producing new Shahids and so on and so on. And it is...

It should be the principal position that we can win in this war and we can stop this war in case if Russian capabilities will be completely destroyed. If civilized world will be ready to destroy it, to demolish all Russian military capabilities.

the stores, the flights, the armored vehicles and headquarters and so on. If we will be ready to destroy everything which could give us potential threat, military threat to a civilized war, then we can say about our victory and about the ground to stop this war.

You're much better placed than we are, Pavlo, to get into the head of the Russians and in particular Vladimir Putin. I think our view is that it is Putin's war. There's not a war party in Moscow that is enthusiastically in favor of this, who shares his rather bizarre imperialistic vision.

So, do you think that his fate hangs on the success of this war and that, or rather, on an outcome that he can present as a success? And anything that's likely now, it seems to me, he could not really sell to his own people and his own circle as being worth the fight.

Forget the human losses because they probably don't concern them but the economic damage that's been done to Moscow and Also its pretensions to be a great power I believe it's also we can see how much support Russian government could have and this is not just the Putin's war. This is a Russians war This is a Russian nation war against civilized world because they have completely support of

of all activity what their government doing and it is still very eatable for Russian people. It's still very attractive, it's still very good for them. So this is there as I said before it's

their understanding this is their existential idea to destroy other nations and particularly to destroy Ukraine that is why when they could stop it's a very good question when their resources will finished

It also will depend on the price of oil. It will depend on other prices on the market. It will also depend on how other countries will support the Russian economy. Because it's still a very big question about the sanctions, because they are still importing

many, especially semiconductors and electronics and optics and some other necessary needs, necessary spare parts for the war. They're still importing. It's also quite interesting. So Trump has made the first statement

admittedly on on social media about what he hopes will happen next i'm just going to read it out to you because one of the things we've been discussing with other people who uh you know have a bit of insight into the way the war is going is the extent to which the noose is beginning to tighten on russia's war economy you know they are beginning to tighten up sanctions as even before trump gets in and the differences is making i'm just going to read this out to you because

Trump's literally just said this in the last few minutes. He always written. He began his post on Truth Social expressing his love for the Russian people and his good relationship with Putin and then issued a direct warning to stop this ridiculous war. It's only going to get worse if we don't make a deal and soon

I have no other choice but to put high levels of taxes, tariffs and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States and various other participating countries. It's time to make a deal. No more lives should be lost. And it strikes me that although there's a lot of, you know, room for maneuver within that sort of statement, but is...

this tightening of the screw by America, one of the potential ways out of this impasse, really, because otherwise we could be talking about a war that continues for a very long time, Pablo. Yeah, of course. I believe it's very important that politicians have to find some political solution for that.

Nevertheless, we need to take into account the real situation. So politicians should not be out of real situation. They need to look on the statistics every day. How many people died? How much losses we have? And to understand the real situation and to understand what their decision will influence on this real situation.

Because if these political declarations will be still political declarations, it means nothing. And you mentioned the Budapest Memorandum. And this is the documents we are discussing from the beginning of the war, from 2014.

Many people said that how is possible, but we have this Budapest memorandum. Nevertheless, it's possible. We can learn from all this situation during this war and understand that not only rule of law, social justice and the democratic principles change,

can manage the situation. And in this situation, we need to have very strong power. And I believe that dictators

like Putin, can understand only very, very huge power and to feel the big potential risk for him and for the country, for his country. Thank you, Pavlo. It was a pleasure and a privilege to talk to you as usual. Thank you very much. Thank you, my souls. Thank you very much, Patrick. It's a big pleasure having you at my home and to be a part of your podcast. Thank you very much indeed.

Now, before we go, we have a special treat for you. The colonel, it turns out, is a man of many talents, including being a skilled musician. So we'll leave you with this. Goodbye. This is the military march of Ukrainian army. This is a very, very old march. It's the Ukrainian, it's called Ukrainian Povstanska Army. Povstanska Army

Bye.