Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
Hello and welcome to the Battleground podcast with me, Patrick Bishop and Saul David. In a moment, we'll be speaking to intrepid Hungarian war reporter Boldi Giori, who has recently witnessed the emotional return of some of the Ukrainian soldiers released in the recent prisoner of war swap. It's an extraordinary bit of reportage, very powerful information.
And moving. But first the news. And the big question this week is, have the scales finally fallen from the eyes of American President Donald Trump with regard to Russia? It might appear so from recent statements.
first came on Sunday after three days of massive Russian drone and missile attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine, which killed dozens of people. Referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a post on his Truth Social network, Trump said,
I'm not happy with what Putin is doing. He's killing a lot of people, and I don't know what the hell happened to Putin. I've known him a long time, always got along with him, but he's sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don't like it at all. He went on, he's gone absolutely crazy in his habitual block capitals, exclamation mark,
Yeah.
Yeah, well, we'd hope so. And this news was followed by an announcement from the new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Monday that in response to Russia's mass drone attacks, Ukraine's Western allies, and that includes the US and the UK, have all agreed to lift remaining range restrictions on the use of their weapons. Now, this
Patrick, potentially it's huge news. Mertz went on to say that Ukraine would be able to defend itself with long-range fire, as he put it, while French President Macron called for massive retaliation against Russian aggressions, particularly with regard to sanctions. Now, if Mertz is to be believed, the end of strike limitations will give Ukraine the ability to hit military targets, including drone launch sites, deep into Russia.
The move was announced by Mertz and then confirmed by the White House. But what is not yet clear is whether these strikes will include Germany's long-range Taurus missile. Mertz would neither confirm nor deny that they've been supplied to Ukraine, but if they have been, it would almost certainly be a game changer as they have a range of 300 miles and can hit targets almost as far as Moscow. Yeah, but I was struck by how ambiguous Mertz's
position is sore. If we go back a little bit, when he was in opposition and Olaf Scholz was leading the government, the SPD party in the driving seat,
They were under a lot of pressure to send tourists to Ukraine. Most of the pressure coming from one Friedrich Merz. But now he's actually got the means to do so, to carry out what he was actually demanding himself. He's being very coy about it. He's suggesting in one breath that the missiles are not going to be sent very soon. And if they were, it would be done in secret. Now, one reason he may be doing this is being so coy about
is that he's still keen to hand over the Taurus missiles, but he's very reluctant to say so openly because he doesn't want a public row with his SBT coalition partners. So let's hope that that's the case. I'm not quite as convinced as you are, Saul, there would be
such a big deal. Obviously, if they did come through, they would give a large extra capacity to Ukraine's deep strike capability. But the question is, how long is it going to take to come through? We've seen this in the past, haven't we? There's big announcements, it all looks good. And then three months later, they're still not there. Six months later, in some cases, the kit still hasn't shown up. So the immediate effects on the battlefield are by no means going to be immediate.
Now, just to get back to Trump, he then followed up his first tirade against Putin with another one on social media saying, well, Vladimir Putin doesn't realise that
If it weren't for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia. And I mean really bad. He's playing with fire. And then there was the usual talk, of course, that those around him that he's considering new sanctions because of the way things are going. But, you know, as always, there's a lot of talk, but it doesn't translate into immediate action.
So what do you think is going on? Do you think he finally lost patience with Putin or is that too much to hope for? Yeah, I mean, I don't know, Patrick, like you, it's really hard to tell. But this language that he's using is actually much tougher than we've heard for a long time. And he may finally be losing patience.
We did think rather optimistically, I suspect, that it might happen a while ago. And if it has happened now, it's taken Putin's brazen and ruthless attacks on civilians at scale, of course, to make Trump finally see sense. But a lot could change, as you pointed out. And even that report that you mentioned in the Wall Street Journal has caveats in it that basically Trump may just walk away.
As for Russia, how has it reacted to this Trumpian rhetoric? Well, it doesn't appear to be particularly worried. First, we had Kremlin mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov playing down Trump's, as he put it, emotional reactions before saying this is a very critical moment, which is fraught with emotional stress for everyone.
And then a more emollient tone, I suppose you could argue, was then struck by Maria Zakharova, the foreign ministry spokesman, who said work was continuing on a draft of a peace proposal and that once the document was ready, it would be handed over to Ukraine. She added, Russia continues to develop a draft memorandum on a future peace treaty, defining a number of positions such as the principles of settlement, the timing of a possible peace agreement and a potential ceasefire for a certain amount of time if appropriate agreements are reached.
And then finally, Patrick, we had Kremlin attack dog Dmitry Medvedev. That's the former president. He was really just standing in for Putin while he did his stint as prime minister. Well, he gave a pretty crass response to Trump's latest comments, saying, regarding Trump's words about Putin playing with fire and really bad things happening to Russia, I only know of one really bad thing, World War III. I hope Trump understands this. Now, I don't know about you, Patrick, but as far as I'm concerned, I would have imagined that
Trump doesn't strike me as the sort of person who responds well to threats. What do you think about that? Well, Saul, I think it depends on where those threats are coming from. If it's from someone who he holds in low regard and regards as weak, then yeah, he will hit back viciously.
But if it's coming from someone strong, particularly if it's coming from Vladimir Putin, then he has a very different attitude. Trump still seems to admire and indeed envy Putin, doesn't he? The tone of the Truth Social posts is sorrowful rather than angry. That line, I've known him for a long time, always gotten along with him. He sounds like a jilted lover, not a world leader. The relationship has always been strangely emotional.
And I don't think Putin really has to do much by way of concessions or by way of apology for Trump to rush to kiss and make up again. And I fear that his vindictiveness will once again then be directed at Zelensky again.
and Ukraine. So I think, Saul, you really need to be a psychiatrist rather than a strategist to work out what's going on here. Well, certainly from Russia's behavior, they don't seem to feel they're in any kind of jeopardy. We've seen, as we've been talking about, these intensified missile and drones attacks, Shahids with larger payloads against cities, obviously designed to break morale. And so Putin seems to be pretty confident he's in the driving seat.
It's not just the attacks on the cities. You've got the buildup to carrying on the threat to the Sumy oblast opposite Kursk, where Putin is aspiring to establish a buffer zone. And that seems to be proceeding pretty well from a Russian point of view. Russian forces captured four more Ukrainian villages close to the Russian border and just 25 kilometers away from Sumy.
So what next, Saul? Do you think that we're going to see any of these words translate into action and that these sanctions, much threatened, will actually come to pass?
Well, I'd like to think so, Patrick, but we're long enough in the tooth now in this conflict to realize that they could be a fair way from us yet. It's possible, but it's also just as likely, as I said a minute ago, that Trump will throw his hands in the air and say enough and walk away. And that, of course, is the one scenario Ukraine doesn't want and Russia does.
Now, as promised, we have an update from Hungarian war reporter Baldi Giori, who was present when some of the Ukrainian soldiers recently returned home in the POW swap and also spoke to a couple of Ukrainian snipers who told him about what they've been up to. But Baldi, let's start with the returned prisoners of war. Where did the exchange take place and what were the scenes you witnessed? Hi, Saul and Patrick. It's good to be back in the podcast. Yes, as you said, I was present when the buses arrived.
back from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, packed with skinny and bald soldiers. I cannot disclose the exact location, but it was a major northern Ukrainian army.
city close to the Belarusian Ukrainian border. I have to admit, I'm not sure I will forget the day I was there. It was a three-day process and I was present at the second day when approximately one-third of the promised 1,000 soldiers arrived. It was a clinic, a hospital of the city where the buses took them to make sure because of the conditions these soldiers were kept in, it was to make sure everyone is healthy and
before they are released to their loved ones' home. The garden of the clinic was packed with civilians, mainly mothers and wives, holding flags and pictures of their loved ones, not knowing whether they will be on the bus or not.
It is due to security reasons that none of the parties, not the Russians nor the Ukrainians, publish who is going to be exchanged during the process. So nobody knows who will be on the bus. And I have to admit, most of these people were unlucky. Their loved ones were not on the buses, except for one or two people.
who, of course, reunited after months or if not years of separation and information isolation. Yeah, it seems a very strange way of doing things, doesn't it, Boldy? Because from what you're saying, it seems that anyone who has a relative who has been captured or gone missing might feel impelled to go to the reception center just on the chance that they might be reunited. Is that the case? Do you have thousands of people missing?
flocking to the hospital just in the hope vein, as it sounds, that they might actually be once again in the arms of their husband, brother, etc. Yes, Patrick, as you say, maybe if not thousands, but hundreds of people definitely showed up at the hospital. I had the feeling that those people are also prisoners of hope because most of them have lost their relatives without a trace, without a sign.
So one of the reasons these people went to this exchange is not necessarily because they expected their loved one to show up. Of course, they were hoping deep down it will happen. But the pictures in their hands was to show freshly released prisoners those pictures and ask them if they know or have seen that person during their stay in Russia or occupied territory prisons. And it was really heartbreaking experience.
to see some women go around and repeat this two-line sentence or like a mantra. Have you seen my son? His codename was Dancer. He served in this and that brigade. He's a handsome man. Can you look at the picture? Have you seen him? And all the prisoners, even though they're just the ex-prisoners, the newly released prisoners,
Although they were visibly incredibly tired and overwhelmed by the reception, they all stood still and took a careful look at every single picture that was shown them, shaking their heads, saying, no, I haven't seen them, but don't worry, there is a lot of facilities where they keep us. He might have been just in another barrack.
And then occasionally they either said good news or diverse news to the relatives who indifferently broke into SOPs or started crying, processing the information. It was really, I am...
Of course, all the journalists were crying as well with the relatives alongside. And I could not forget details my grandmother was telling me about waiting for her dad to return from Russian captivity after Second World War. And it was just the same. Relatives were lining up on the train station, asking those who arrived whether they have seen or heard something about their loved one. And...
The only difference between those since 80 years ago and today was just the presence of mobile phones in people's hands, but nothing has changed. I mean, we've all read a lot of the reports about conditions of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russian captivity. In fact, there was a report this week that at least 200 have died from no sort of obvious cause. Did you get a chance to get any details from some of the returning prisoners of war about the conditions in which they were held?
directly, no, because we were asked emphatically not to ask the soldiers about the conditions they were held in because that has a very good chance of re-traumatizing them. And so most of the journalists adhered to those requests, but
Obviously, just by looking at them, all of them looked very tired, very skinny, incredibly skinny. Some of them had their skin in a purple color, purple-ish color, which might indicate, I think, either frozen wounds or some other kind of maltreatment. They were all shaved, bald skin.
And I mean, it's not a coincidence that their first road leads to a hospital where they probably check them for other diseases as well. Yeah, but definitely malnutrition, it's a thing in Russian prisons. Did you get any idea, Boldy, of the mechanism by which the exchange took place? I think some listeners would be surprised to hear that there is a degree of cooperation and communication between the two sides that allows this to happen.
So, according to my knowledge, I'm not sure if this was the sixth or eighth successful prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia since the full-scale invasion began. And this is one of the few areas where cooperation is actually really good between the sides, mainly thanks to conveyors in the Middle East.
But this one was more brokered by, or at least under the pressure from Donald Trump. And just about the pure mechanics of how it takes place. According to videos shared on Telegram channels, the prisoners were brought to the border by trains this time.
And the trains went through them. On the border were already five, six Ukrainian buses were waiting for them. And then after the official jubilation and welcome on Ukrainian territory,
They were brought to this hospital where civilians and families and relatives could actually meet them for the first time. Uldi, I mentioned earlier that you'd also spoken to a couple of Ukrainian snipers. Tell us a little bit about them and what they've been up to. I've been very interested in how weather snipers still have relevance in today's battlefield. Since there are drones and other high precision weapons out there,
And so I approached the 3rd Assault Brigade and they told me they do have two snipers who has been doing this job in the last 20 years. One of them even lost his left leg in 2015 in Eastern Ukraine, stepping on a mine, but kept on fighting nevertheless with the prosthetics. The other one is also hailing from a sniper dynasty. His grandfather went all the way to Berlin as a sniper in the Red Army.
So there is no question what profession he would choose. Although he admitted that it has changed a lot since then.
The distances his grandfather shoot at is the distance today's assault rifles are capable of shooting at. So the distances just became larger and the targets more far. These days, because of their experience, they are mainly training new recruits of the 3rd Brigade. But of course, they are accompanying them to their first few missions to make sure everything is fine, as
as long as they, during the first few missions, so they make sure they know the lay of the land in the front line because it just cannot be conveyed completely to the training ground what it's like. And how do they operate? I mean, the old way of doing it was you'd
be very heavily camouflaged, you'd lie up in your position for hours and sometimes days awaiting a high value target. I think that's still the case that you're trying to shoot commanders, you're trying to shoot a lieutenant or a captain rather than any old foot soldier. Is that still the case? Yes and no. High ranking commanders are easier to spot and kill by drones these days.
And also they are not operating individually anymore. There are usually three of them, all trained snipers, but only one holds the sniper rifle. The other one is the spotter, or the way they are called in Ukrainian, korektorovchik, who corrects fire, measures the wind, etc., finds the target. And there is a third person who is there to protect them because...
Two are laying on the ground, looking into one direction, not necessarily paying particular attention to their close quarters. And also the sniper rifle is not designed to protect when it comes to small arm fire. So there is a third guy who is a security guy, checks the surroundings and has an assault rifle in his hand.
They usually take turns doing these tasks, even inside, even during one mission, because it's impossible to lay on the ground and pay attention for more than a few hours, especially when it's winter and it's cold or hot during the summer. And yes, you're right, Patrick, they are extremely well camouflaged, especially since the appearance of drones. They've said that now they have to pay particular attention not to be visible from above either, because...
Otherwise, they are a high value target. And as they said, everything flies into our direction if they find out that we are there. And lastly, Baldi, you mentioned before we started recording that you actually spent the last week in Kyiv. And we know, of course, that there have been massive drone attacks all across Ukraine, but also targeting Kyiv. Tell us a little bit about the effect on the local population of those attacks.
A lot of old images emerged again in Kiev, people running to the subway in the middle of the night, pulling sleepy children behind them in pyjamas, taking cover from ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and Shahid drones.
As Kyiv is running low on Patriot missiles, more and more Russian projectiles get through, as well as the Russians increased just the sheer number of rockets and drones they use for these attacks. And so just out of pure statistics, more will get through than before.
Therefore, a lot of Kyivians had to go to the shelter again. They haven't slept through the weekend, although there has not been much casualties in Kyiv. Children have died elsewhere in the country and just the psychological effect of not sleeping through a weekend and going into bed anticipating terror does damage to one's own psychological well-being.
And if you sustain this kind of condition for a population long enough, then their willpower will eventually break. No signs of that yet, but I don't know how much they will hold on. Okay, that was fascinating and very emotional, if I may say, Baldi. Thanks very much for your great reporting and keep on doing what you're doing. You're doing a fantastic job and we're all very delighted that you contribute to the podcast. Thank you. Thank you for having me.
Well, as I say, very, very powerful stuff. I'm sure you'll agree, Saul. Anyway, we'll take a break there. Do join us in part two for listeners' questions.
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Welcome back. Well, before we get to questions, I just want to give you a quick cyber update from our cyber expert, David Alexander. And he writes with regard to the recent news report on Russia tracking aid en route to Ukraine. Now, he gives details of a joint report from 21 intelligence and cyber security agencies that share the tactics, techniques and procedures that these various Russian hacking groups have used in their attacks.
Now, apparently they've been targeting organizations in the defense, logistics, IT services, air traffic and maritime sectors in 12 European countries and the US. They've been stealing data from their systems and attempting to track the movement of those goods into Ukraine by compromising access to CCTV cameras installed in key locations along the route.
and at borders. Now, they haven't apparently, according to David, used any tactics that are particularly novel. Instead, they've used tried and trusted methods, such as allowing access to IT systems and CCTV cameras run by commercial organizations, which do not have the kind of cyber countermeasures required to detect and defeat attacks by organizations with the capability and resources of a nation-state attacker, such as these Russian hackers.
David also points out that Dutch intelligence agencies have uncovered a new Russian cyber espionage group while investigating a security breach in its police force, which happened in September last year. They've given this group the name Laundry Bear. Bear seems to be the
the moniker for an attacker of Russian origin. And this appeared to be a new hacking group, which only started operations in mid 2024, and which attacks are primarily focused on supporting Russia's war effort in Ukraine, and on military and diplomatic targets. And he goes on to explain where they've been targeting their attacks. So interesting stuff from David. Thanks very much for that latest update.
As always, yeah, wonderful stuff. Going to open up with a question from Eleanor, which is about the rise of China in the Pacific. Eleanor lives in New Zealand, which she says is thankfully a long way from any current theaters of war, but she's interested in our thoughts on the rise of China in the Pacific through soft loans and infrastructure, all the stuff we know about, the Belt and Road Initiative, etc.,
She says there's also in local domestic politics, there's a backlash, she says, against the election of Trump in New Zealand, but also in the other Five Eyes nations. That is that intelligence coalition, which involves New Zealand as well as the UK, America, etc. And Eleanor asks, how durable is the Five Eyes coalition?
And what value does a small nation like New Zealand really bring? Well, the Pacific, I regard as being your bailiwick, Saul. So I'm going to bat this one over to you. Yeah, well, I mean, the answer to Eleanor is very valuable, actually. I mean, New Zealand, along with Australia, Canada, the US and the UK, the so-called Five Eyes Alliance,
produces without question the best intelligence on a global level. So any one element of that falling out would be a problem. Now, it's interesting, Eleanor's not suggesting New Zealand itself is going to fall out. It's more likely that the US is going to pull back. And that was definitely a concern I think we had, Patrick, over the whole NATO issue and whether or not the US was going to pull out of NATO. I think our fears have been allayed a little bit.
over that. And therefore, the Five Eyes arrangement is not going to be reduced in its capacity anytime soon. And with good reason, of course, because as Eleanor also says, China is a real problem. The US recognizes this, so do the Anzac nations. And for that reason, to keep this kind of intelligence gathering capability is even more important than ever.
Okay, moving on. We've got one here from Dennis from Berlin. In February 2025, he writes, Ukraine recovered parts of a new Russian drone with a jammer-resistant terrain-following system, a so-called Ter-Com. This shows how affordable such tech has become. Russia is already using cheap, off-the-shelf parts to build cruise missiles like the Bandarol. Given this, why hasn't the Coalition of the Willing focused on helping Ukraine develop its own long-range missile
2,000 plus kilometre cruise missile. It should be stealthy, carry a large warhead, be cheap to produce and easy to mass manufacture. Such a system could strike deep into Russia, hitting command centres, energy infrastructure and key factories. Do we have an answer to that, Patrick, as to why this hasn't happened? It seems quite straightforward, but it does, of course, cross that red line of firing deep into Russia, which it does sound from the information we've been relating from
Friedrich Merz today is no longer an issue for the Western allies. And indeed it was before, you know, there were back in the autumn, there were several recorded strikes deep into using British storm shadow French scalps
cruise missiles, uh, to, uh, hit targets pretty deep in Russia. So there is a precedent there. It's all a little bit murky, this idea of, you know, these red lines that are supposedly being crossed. But a couple of points here. One is that, you know, although Ukraine is definitely still got the agent in new, uh, battlefield technology, the Russians are doing a pretty good job catching up. So they are showing pretty high degree of ingenuity and, uh,
you know, making do amend and using what is available. And as it's pointed out here, official parts to actually build something pretty formidable. On the question of why aren't we doing more? Well, we don't really know. It could well be that we're supplying know-how components, et cetera, which don't actually work.
cause any big diplomatic ripples. But this really brings us back to the question of the German position and the Taurus missiles, doesn't it? They would, rather than building a whole new cruise missile, you've got a fantastic piece of kit. Here's got a range of 320 miles.
Beyond that, it can do all the usual stuff of hitting command and control and munitions, dumps, logistics centers, et cetera, et cetera. But, you know, its USB really is this bunker-busting warhead which could penetrate deep into the most well-protected command and control centers and wipe out very important senior commanders and, of course, the ability to command and control the actual kit itself, the communications kit itself. So,
That would be, to my mind, the most sensible course of action would just go full tilt at getting Tauruses into Ukraine.
Okay, David Harrison here. I used to know a David Harrison, worked with a David Harrison on the Telegraph. I wonder if it's the same one. If it is, nice to hear from you, David. He says, good to have you both back in tandem. Thanks for that. Regarding the latest episode, with the greatest respect to Saul, I have to disagree with his statement that we all expected that Trump would finally lose his patience with Putin after the famous incident.
call, the two-hour-long phone call of last week. And Davis suggests a better phrase would have been, we all hoped with childlike naivety that Trump would finally lose patience. I think he's saying that we've been a little bit over-optimistic about what's
Trump's ability to actually see the light, if you like. Do you think that's fair criticism? Yeah, I do think it's fair, although David goes on to say he's very much in the Phillips O'Brien camp on this issue. And Phillips, who we've had on the podcast, is very much of the opinion, as David puts it, that Trump will never, ever, ever turn on Putin, nor even express any
mild irritation with him. Well, as we've already mentioned on this podcast, he has expressed mild irritation with him and a bit stronger than that. So I think he's moving in the right direction, David. But as Patrick's already suggested, how far this move will go is another matter, whether he'll properly turn on Putin by actually taking hard action. And he could do that in two ways.
One, as we mentioned before, the secondary sanctions and two, by upping the kit that he gives to the Ukrainians. But neither of those seem to be imminent. They're talking about possibly secondary sanctions, of course. But, you know, we'll wait and see until they actually happen, because until they do, I think David's right to point out we are being hopelessly naive, I think. Got one here about the recent surge in Russian strikes from Allen in Shropshire.
He says Russia has significantly intensified drone and missile attacks with record numbers reported recently. What is their tactical objective behind these attacks? And how effectively is Ukraine's air defense adapting to Russia's changing drone tactics, e.g. high altitudes, changing routes, use of decoys?
and so forth. Well, I'll answer the first bit, which is I think it is often quite difficult, I think, for laymen, if you like, and laywomen to understand what is going on here. But I think in one word, it's attritional, isn't it, Saul? It's attritional at two levels. One is at the military level, which is sending over these –
it would seem, ever-increasing numbers of missiles and drones. And that's got the object of forcing Ukraine to use up its inventory of very expensive air defence munitions, thinking in particular, of course, of Patriot missiles, which are high-wateringly expensive. And who knows how many more of them will be available if things go badly for Ukraine with Trump.
And the second attritional aspect, I think, is the ongoing war on Ukrainian morale. I think the message is, we heard a bit of this from Boldy, to the Ukrainian population from Russia, is that this is not going to go away. This is going to go on and on and on. Everything is going to be a respite. Forget it. And the intention, of course, is to fray further, undermine further civilian morale, increase
And hopefully with a political consequence, which will be negative for Zelensky. So it's not about causing big casualties necessarily, but they certainly wouldn't be averse to that. But to creating an atmosphere of fear and going on from that distrust in the ability of the authorities to protect the civilian population.
Okay, moving on to Oliver, who asks, Russian forces have captured several villages in the Sumy region and are reportedly massing near Kharkiv. What is the significance of these advances? Are they primarily aimed at creating a buffer zone, or do they represent a broader strategic shift to stretch Ukrainian defences? I don't see Russian forces having the capability to capture larger cities like Kharkiv. Well, I agree with the last point, Oliver, and I think your other two suggestions are both probably equally true.
The buffer zone, you know, it's not a defensive measure, which, of course, is what Putin's trying to make us believe. It's simply a question of gaining more territory in as many different places as possible so that when the freeze comes, if indeed it ever does come, that is the freeze of the front lines that was suggested by the Americans as a basis for peace.
Russia actually controls more territory. I don't think it's any more sophisticated than that. They will keep on fighting, keep on nibbling away at territory until they are forced to stop. So
The idea that it's a buffer zone, a defensive zone, no, absolute nonsense. Broader shift, a strategic shift? No, they've been trying to stretch Ukrainian defences for the last two or three years. So nothing's really changed there. Attacks all along the line in the hope, as I say, of gaining a little bit more territory. It's really no more sophisticated than that. Yep, I think that's spot on there, Saul.
Well, that's it for us for this week. Do join us on Wednesday for another episode of Battleground 45 and again on Friday when we'll be bringing you all the latest from Ukraine. Goodbye.