California Takes ‘Good Cop/Bad Cop’ Approach to President Trump
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From KQED in San Francisco, I'm Mina Kim. Coming up on Forum, we catch up on state political news. California Attorney General Rob Bonta has filed a host of lawsuits against the Trump administration as Governor Newsom tries to stay in Trump's good graces to safeguard federal disaster aid. It could be a good cop, bad cop strategy from the state, according to KQED's politics team, who joins us to talk about how the Trump administration is shaping state politics.

We'll also look at who might be eyeing the governorship to replace termed out Gavin Newsom. Kamala Harris, perhaps? Who would you want as California's next governor? Join us. ♪

Welcome to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. As House Republicans pass a federal budget that makes deep cuts to programs California relies on, and as federal disaster aid hangs in the balance, I'm here with KQED's politics and government team to unpack how the Trump administration is shaping state politics in blue California. Here's Long Beach Congressman Robert Garcia. We want to make sure that we're fighting fire with fire. We are not rolling over and allowing Republicans to

to stomp all over our rights, our freedoms, the federal agencies that people depend so much on. And it's really important that at this moment, Democrats are tough, they're aggressive, and they don't allow Elon Musk to raid in all the programs that we care about. We'll also look at who might succeed, termed out Governor Gavin Newsom, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, as

As voters appear to move to the right on crime, immigration, and homelessness, what state political issues are top of mind for you? Joining me, politics correspondent Guy Marzarotti. Hi, Guy. Hey, good morning. Politics correspondent Marisa Lagos, also co-host of KQED's Political Breakdown. Hey, Marisa. Hey, Mina. And senior editor Scott Shaver is here, also co-host of Political Breakdown. Hey, Scott. Hey, Mina. So let's just get right to it.

By the way, it's really nice to have all three of you around the table with me. Will Kamala Harris, Scott, run for governor? What are your sources saying? Well, time will tell. You know, I think she's thinking about it. She's keeping her options open. It seems like she's got a group of advisors around her. You know, obviously, she's 60 years old. She's been vice president. She would have a lot of opportunities outside of politics if she wanted to, either in the corporate world, foundations, universities.

But I think once you've been that close to power, and she also was, of course, attorney general here. She's won many statewide elections in California as senator and AG and presidential nominee. So, you know, she's thinking about it. Clearly, it's a logical next step for her if she wants to stay in the arena. But I do think if she decides she wants to run for governor, she's going to have to first decide she's not going to run for president in 2028, because I don't think you can do both. Why? Why?

Well, I mean, she would be taking office as governor in January of 2027. The race for president is in some ways already underway. It'll certainly be very well underway by that time. And, you know, Jerry Brown was governor and ran for president three times and never won. And after a while, people want you to focus on the job you were hired to do, which is a governor. And California is facing a lot of issues. I just don't think it would be a good look.

to view getting elected governor as a kind of consolation prize. And I think if she comes into the campaign, if she decides to run and has that sort of attitude, voters are going to be able to tell. And I don't think it'll wear well. It'll give people like maybe Antonio Villaraigosa a way in or Eleni Kounalakis, the lieutenant governor, to have people give them another look if they get a sense that she doesn't really want to be governor. She really wants to run for president again. Marisa, do you think Harris will run for governor?

I think it's like 50-50. But I mean, if you're her, it seems like in some ways a better path than trying to run for president again, because I don't think on the Democratic side, like Republicans have more of a history of sort of anointing the next person. I mean, I know with someone like Clinton, we saw something different, although Barack Obama kind of messed that up. Well, Biden, well, right, Clyburn jumped in on that one. But, you know, I think that

There's no indication to me that anyone in the Democratic Party is open to sort of assuming that she would be the next nominee. Right. And I also think there's a lot of baggage that comes along with being someone from California right now, which also poses challenges for our fair governor. But it is sort of interesting. And I think it gets at this question of like.

What are her strengths and weaknesses? I mean, obviously, she would politically have a lot of strength going into this. But like, who's her team? Like who what is she running on? I think these are really interesting questions that I hope she's thinking deeply about, because, as Scott said, if you're just running to sort of hold on to power, people kind of see through that. Yeah. What's your why? But I would say she has more time than most people. Right. There's there's already a lot of Democrats in this race. They're raising millions of dollars.

Kamala Harris has the benefit of name identification that she can take many more months to make this decision, right? The reason people get in to a 2026 governor race two years ago is because you need to introduce yourself to the state. You need to start raising money up and down the state to run a statewide television-centered campaign. Harris doesn't have to worry about that. If she gets into this race in May, June, she can still raise a ton of money. Democrats across the state know who she is. So she has the luxury of, I think,

being able to take her time on this decision more than most Democrats. And, you know, to Guy's point, you know, we know all these folks because we cover them. That's our job. We know who Lenny Kounalakis is and Rob Bonta, the AG, Tony Atkins, you know, and on and on and on. Most voters don't pay very close attention. There was a poll last, I think it was October before the election, looking at name ID. I think the highest name ID was 14 percent. And that was Katie Porter, who was running, you know, had run for the U.S. Senate.

It takes a lot of money to get name ID, just to get name ID, like who are you in California? And Kamala Harris, as Guy said, she has that already. So that affords her some extra time. So then, Guy, who are the Democrats? You've kind of given us a little bit of a preview, but who have announced or are seriously eyeing the election?

Yeah, there's a few. So Eleni Kounalakis, the current lieutenant governor. You have Tony Thurman, state superintendent of public instruction. Tony Atkins, who Scott mentioned, she used to be the Senate pro tem in Sacramento. There's some Republicans have already gotten in. Chad Bianco, the sheriff in Riverside. And then there's a few who are we're kind of watching. Right. Katie Porter, who.

was a swing district congress member in Orange County. She ran for Senate. I think she's still kind of weighing her decision. Antonio Villaraigosa has announced a campaign for mayor of L.A. So there's a lot of candidates who I would say have kind of parochial name identification. People in L.A. might know Villaraigosa. People in the state legislative world would know Tony Atkins, but there's no one who has kind of that statewide presence

that Kamala Harris would. The real question is how many of these people would stay in the race if Harris got in, right? I think there's a lot, you know, the Democratic Party has an establishment in California that I think would pay a lot of deference to Harris. And you'd see people say, you know what, if she's in, I'm going to run for some other office.

which I don't think that will sit well with voters, but I do think that's on the minds of a lot of these Democrats. Like, I'm not going to run against Kamala Harris. So then I think it leaves, who are the people who feel like I have nothing to lose? I don't care if I'm running against Harris. I'm just going to go for it. And to Guy's point, you know, we have Michael Tubbs, who was the mayor of Stockton, kind of a young, up-and-coming public official working in the Newsom administration. He's running for lieutenant governor. And, you know, he, looking ahead, his advisors are seeing what could happen if Kamala Harris jumps in. And

others decide to run for lieutenant governor and he's raising you know millions of dollars to kind of like warn them hey i'm here this i'm planted the flag i'm raising a lot of money so if you're going to run against me you know it's not going to be as easy as you might think we're talking with scott schaefer marisa lagos and guy marzarati all part of kqed's politics and government team and you our listeners are invited to join the conversation what state political issues are top of mind for you who would you want to be california's next governor

You can email us, forum at kqed.org, find us on our social channels at KQED Forum, or call us at 866-733-6786, 866-733-6786. So, Marisa, tell me a little bit more about the Republicans who are eyeing this job. And, I mean, how hard would it be for a Republican to actually win, right? Yeah.

Pretty hard if you believe in math. I mean, yeah, just the voter registration in California makes it a very uphill battle. The last Republican, obviously, to win as governor is Arnold Schwarzenegger. And I don't think...

I mean, even taking away the sort of policy and political differences between him and the kind of more conservative MAGA wing of the party that's taken over. I mean, he was a celebrity like he had his own wealth. He had his own name ID. It's a very different thing than, say, Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, who's announced that he's running super right wing former Oath Keeper member, somebody who has really campaigned around a lot of these sort of immigration concerns.

crackdowns, but also public safety broadly. He was an outspoken proponent of Prop 36. And he's sort of that's the lane that he is trying to carve out public safety. And he's saying that because something like Prop 36, you know, did so well around the state across party lines that maybe he'll have a shot. I think that that is a

Yeah.

the more interesting question is a sort of self-funded, you know, more centrist figure like a Rick Caruso who ran for LA mayor against Karen Bass, spent a ton of his own money, um, was a Republican, then an independent, now a Democrat. I mean, but would clearly be coming from outside of the democratic structure. Um,

I'm really interested to see what someone like him challenged Kamala Harris. I think he would be happy to challenge an Eleni Kunilakis or even maybe a Vera Ragosa. I have no idea what their personal relationship is like. But even within, I think, someone like him who's an outsider, do you look at someone like Harris that just has this enormous star power because of her time in the White House and ask that question? I mean...

The real question for anybody, you know, who's not part of the Democratic establishment is could they pose sort of enough of a threat to make it into a top two primary? Because that's where the rubber kind of meets the road here with an opening for a more unexpected candidate.

You know, we do not have a system for folks who don't recall of just having a Republican and Democrat making it to a runoff. Anybody can if they're the top two vote getters. And so that does sort of shuffle the deck a little bit. Although I still think if you had, you know, a Chad Bianco make it into a runoff against any of these Democrats, the Democrat just you'd put money on the Democrat if you were a betting person. Yeah.

This listener writes, what's a better way for Harris to demonstrate the leadership capacity she possesses in order to substantiate any later presidential run than being California governor? Wouldn't doing something be better than doing nothing? Do you want to be governor?

of California while Trump is president, Scott? Well, it's a great platform. I mean, if you want to be a foil, I mean, we're seeing Gavin Newsom, who has for years been one of Trump's biggest critics. He's debated Republicans on Fox TV. He goes on Fox News. He's been in the spin room after debates, trashing Donald Trump. And now he's really making nice. He put out a press release thanking the president just yesterday for $315 million for a reservoir. He's

really, you know, went back there, tried to make sure he gets money for L.A., for recovery from the fires. You know, so what kind of governor are people looking for? Are they looking—I don't mean just Democrats, but independents. Do they want somebody who's going to be taking it to Trump? You know, but on the other hand—

He's only going to be around perhaps through 2028. So it really depends on what people are looking for. I mean, the thing about Kamala Harris is she's been pretty cautious as a politician. She's not somebody generally, you know, when she was governor, I mean, when she was a senator, when she was attorney general, who was known for taking a lot of risks and putting herself way out there. It really depends on what voters are looking for and whether she feels she has the stomach for that. And then also, being governor is a big job. You know, it's an executive position.

And, you know, she's yes, she's been attorney general. She ran that office. But she you know, she has to decide if she wants to be in charge of a state with 40 million people almost and a lot of problems. Scott Schaefer, a senior editor for KQE's California Politics and Government Desk. Guy Mazzarotti is a correspondent on that desk. So is Marisa Lagos. Marisa and Scott co-host.

political breakdown. And we're talking about state politics this hour and hearing from you, our listeners, the kinds of issues that are top of mind for you, the questions that you have about what's happening in the state and what California's priorities should be. Stay with us. I'm Mina Kim.

You're listening to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. We're talking with KQED's politics team this hour about how this Trump administration is shaping California politics. We're also looking at who might succeed. Termed out Governor Gavin Newsom. Scott Schaefer, Guy Marzarotti and Marisa Lagos are with me. And so are you. Listeners at 866-733-6786.

866-733-6786. We're on Blue Sky, Facebook, Instagram, Threads, a KQED forum, and at the email address forum at kqed.org. Tell us what state political issues are top of mind for you. Who would you want to be California's next governor? What should California's priorities be during the Trump administration?

Are you calling your elected representatives over any issues at all? If so, tell us about those two. Guy, one thing I wanted to ask you about was the fact that Attorney General Rob Bonta dropped out of the race. First, remind us why and what's your reaction to that?

Well, I think, you know, the stated reason he has a pretty full plate right now as attorney general, that that office is going to be kind of at the vanguard of taking on the Trump administration. We've already seen Bonta file lawsuits against the federal government just in this short time since Trump has taken office. But it was interesting when he made that announcement. He also said,

somewhat endorsed Kamala Harris, basically saying, you know, I'm not running, but if Kamala Harris decides to make this run, I'm getting fully behind her, which to me is just another indication that you are going to start to see if Harris makes this move. A lot of the Democrats who have been rumored to have interest kind of throw their weight behind Harris because there's also some personal ties here, right? Like Eleni Kounalakis has a very longstanding personal and professional relationship with Harris. Katie Porter, who was...

appointed by Harris when Harris was AG to oversee the mortgage settlement. So there's a lot of connections. Are these people really going to challenge Harris in a primary? I somewhat doubt it. I almost feel like, look, back to Maurice's point about the math, the most likely scenario is

If Republicans coalesce around a single candidate, if Harris is in, Democrats coalesce around Harris and you have an uncompetitive Harris versus GOP general election. I think that's for all the talk about the top two. And I think really the top two at its best works in state legislative races where the differences are really between Democrats and you have moderates and progressives and that kind of gets, yeah, that kind of gets borne out.

But in these statewide campaigns, what we've often seen is there's enough of a Republican vote share that a Republican makes it into the general election alongside a Democrat. And you have races like you have for U.S. Senate this year, where it's Steve Garvey, Adam Schiff, and really not a really competitive campaign.

Before the break, Marisa, Scott was talking about the balancing act a California governor would have to do with a Trump administration. And you've talked about how kind of Rob Bonta and Gavin Newsom are playing sort of bad cop, good cop or good cop, bad cop. But tell me about that. Do you think that's an effective strategy?

I think it is at this point because Newsom needs Trump right now. He needs help. You know, California needs help with the L.A. fires. So much of what the House budget, you know, could do to the state's health care system and others matters.

is really important. And so, you know, maybe I'm Pollyanna-ish, but I actually take Bonta's word a little bit more. I mean, obviously, the prospect of Kamala Harris jumping in is one thing, but I do think his day job got more important and not just from a like, you know, resistance sort of like, is this what I think is right thing, which I think Bonta, you know, is a very staunch sort of progressive lefty. It's also...

serving to raise his profile, like to do the thing. So if he wants to run for governor in a future year or run for Congress or something else, like I do think that this era is going to potentially, I mean, depending on how he handles it, because I think most average voters don't remember Javier Becerra from the first time around. Um,

But I think there's political reasons, too, for sitting out a sort of messy, you know, even if Harris doesn't get in, what could be a sort of messy Democrat on Democrat primary in the governor's race? But, yeah, I think in terms of Newsom, I mean, I think Newsom, it's not just Newsom.

yes, he's trying to figure out how to deal with Trump and how to get what California needs from this White House. I think he's also trying to chart his own path forward. As we talked about, I don't think there's a lot of, you know, excitement on the left about nominating another Californian in 2028, although that's very far away. So who knows what happened since then? But like just this morning, we heard in Politico that he's launching his own podcast where he wants to be say he said he wants to be having debates with MAGA figures and doing these things, you know, sort of

His second podcast. His second podcast, not the one with Marshawn Lynch. Not debates, though. Conversations. And I think like, you know, that shows you that he's trying to, I think, lean into some of the critiques we've heard him articulate in the past about the Democratic Party and sort of figure out like what his next act is going to be, whether it's running nationally or not.

And so, you know, I think you can never take anything any of these people do in a vacuum. It's all sort of part of the broader chess that they're playing in the political arena. Well, Steve, on Discord Rights, Newsom's way, way down my preferred list of Democrat candidates for president. I lost pretty much all faith in him with that French lottery debacle during the COVID crisis.

lockdowns. Well, Scott, while it's become harder to confront Trump as a Gavin Newsom governor with the L.A. fires and everything looming over us, it has also become harder for the California legislature to confront Trump, too, to some degree. Talk about this a little bit. Why is it hard for lawmakers as well in California? Well, I think there are some lawmakers that are in purplish districts in

But I think, you know, the election, everyone took a look at the election results. You know, Trump did better in California than he did in 2020 or 2016. And you look at issues like immigration, border security, undocumented immigrants, cost of living, regulation. I mean, there are a lot of Democrats have owned California for a long time. And this is something Republicans have been saying, like they broke it. They own it. It's their fault.

But then voters still don't want to elect a Republican. But I think you're seeing and Guy can speak to this probably more than I can because he's been watching it really closely. But you're seeing some subtle things around some legislation. There was some hesitation to pay for that extra money for Rob Bonta to sue Donald Trump and

how that money was going to be used by advocates for immigrants and undocumented immigrants. So I think it was the election was a bit of a wake up call for a lot of Democrats. Like, hey, maybe our message needs to be retuned a little bit. Yeah, Guy, we're hearing about this rightward shift, but put that in context for us. What does a rightward shift in the state of California and among California Democrats potentially look like? Yeah, I mean, well, if you compare it to the first time Trump took office, 2017-2014,

Then there was like 80, 82 Democrats in the state legislature. That's when Democrats actually first won their supermajority in the Assembly and Senate. Every single Democrat in the legislature in 2017 represented a district Hillary Clinton and won by 10 or more points.

So there's there was no incentive or no kind of thinking in the mind of a lot of Democrats. Why do I need to be wary of kind of leading this this banner of resistance? You fast forward that to now it's about a dozen Democrats in the legislature who represent districts either that were within 10 points or actually in a couple cases, Trump actually won those districts. That's a completely different calculus. If you're someone like Melissa Hurtado and Bakersfield state senator.

you're in a district Trump won by nine points. Your entire political future rests on winning over voters who voted for Donald Trump. So when you get to Sacramento and the first piece of legislation that's being offered is, hey, we need you to vote on this bill that's going to set aside money to sue Trump.

That's a difficult political calculus. So with all that being said, I think the job of the legislative leadership is a lot harder than it was in 2017 for Mike McGuire, for Robert Revis. And I was actually impressed with Revis in the way he kind of pulled together Democrats around these bills to not only put aside money to sue Trump, but also put aside money for legal aid, because it is a much more fractured caucus in that regard. And yet you also have a lot of progressives who felt like, wait, why are we

taking a back foot? Why are we letting, you know, Republicans in the legislature kind of lead on this and give pushback to the idea of setting aside this money? There's still so many Democrats in the legislature who come from districts that Harris won by 30, 40, 50 points. So Rivas has to kind of balance these two things. He has the majority of his caucus, which are coming from really deep blue parts of California, but also these members who represent

Well, and there's also just like the fact that this isn't like the most fun time to be a lawmaker or leader. You know, back to even the governor's race, like and someone like Harris and how she's considering it. You know, we have...

You know, state leaders have done a decent job of sort of cutting, clawing back the deficit. But there's a lot more cups coming from Washington. The economy is super uncertain right now. You have a hostile administration who, you know, not only just through like the normal course of business, through like the Medicaid cuts or the proposed Medicaid cuts could really hurt California. But, you know, I mean, Trump can be pretty aggressive.

Vindictive. Vindictive, I guess is the word. Yeah. And so I think that like this is just a tough time to be. It's way more fun to be in power when you have a bunch of money to spread around. Right. And so I think that when you add what Guy is talking about, the like electoral math with a real uncertainty, because we have seen such big swings in these districts over the last few cycles. And so I think it actually makes it really hard both for.

for more moderate Democrats in Sacramento and, quite frankly, for more centrist Republicans in D.C. from some of these purple districts to kind of figure out where the electorate is at. Because really, ever since COVID, we've been kind of all over the map. Well, and I think we've got a taste just recently here in San Francisco of just how broad and deep the tentacles of the Trump administration, the federal government can be. He's trying to dissolve the Presidio trust.

which is really a backhanded way of going after Nancy Pelosi, who helped create that and trying to sell what they want to sell the building named after her on seventh and mission. And so if you're, you know, a legislator in one of these or a member of Congress in one of these districts, you know, you have to think twice there because there are so many ways that they can mess with you in terms of funding programs, all kinds of things. And, you know, vindictive is one word, you know, that is just vengeful. I mean, there's just a lot of ways to,

that he can cause a lot of problems for your state, your city, your district. But on the flip side of that, Scott, that said, can this also be a way for Democrats to start to find their footing? I mean, last night, the Republican budget, the House passed that. It calls for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts for the wealthy and a $2 trillion reduction in federal spending on programs that benefit the poor and working class. I imagine that's not going to be very popular even in red districts.

Strix and California. Absolutely. And we've seen how the dissolving USAID is hurting farmers who sold a lot of their crops to developing countries. Veterans are being hurt. And the problem is, and this is very much a strategy, this sort of flood the zone strategy that Steve Bannon and Trump talk about, where there's just so much stuff coming out. That first couple of weeks was just, it was crazy just how many different things. And a lot of it isn't even real. It's not really happening. He'll just say, well, I'm going to turn the water on to

put the fires out. That has nothing to do with what he did with the water supply in the Central Valley. And so I think Democrats are trying to figure out what is their message. Do they focus on the threat to democracy and the Constitution? Do they go after how people

people like Elon Musk are kind of screwing over working class people and veterans and seniors. We're going to see just how they're going to do, how this budget is going to be implemented. And these, you know, trillion dollars, I think it's $4 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years for the wealthiest Americans. And you've got to cut entitlements. And so that's where the, that's where the

pain is felt. And I think Nancy Pelosi, among others, really understands that that has to be the message you have. Democrats lost because they weren't focused in November. They were lost because they weren't focused on sort of kitchen table issues. And I think they realize that that's part of the way back for them is to talk about things that people care about that really affect them directly. Which will be easier when we have more meat on the bones of this budget. Less meat on the bones.

And it is, you know, going to be... I think we do need to underscore what a tricky position Mike Johnson and even the Senate finds itself in, right? I mean, this budget resolution last night barely passed because there is this sort of, you know, in the center you have, you know, Republicans from districts in places like New York and New Jersey and purple places where they're very worried about these cuts. And then on the right, they want the debt to be cut even further. And so...

You know, I think if you were to talk to someone like Pelosi, they'd probably say, you know, and Hakeem Jeffries, the minority, like we're going to let them fight amongst themselves. And it is going to be a challenge for Republicans. Oh, yeah. I mean, to take it back to California, if you look at the places where Republicans made the greatest gains and Trump made the greatest gains in California in 2024, those are the same districts that have the largest share of residents on Medicaid.

largest share of residents on food stamps. If you look at David Valadao represents this area north of Bakersfield. That was the biggest pro-Trump shift of any district in California in 2024. Two thirds of the residents in that district are on Medicaid, most in the state. So that's a really difficult position for someone like Valadao to be in. And it's beyond the Central Valley, like places in the Inland Empire where you really did see

a pro-Trump shift in 2024. Those are the districts, a lot of them currently held by Democrats, where you have a lot of residents on Medicaid and on food stamps. So there's a real political opportunity, I think, for Democrats to target Republicans if these cuts ended up going through, which look, $2 trillion in cuts, you're not going to get that by firing park rangers, right? This is like... It has to go after entitlements. It's going to have to go after entitlements. There's no question.

But that's not to say there's not going to be difficulty for Democrats, right? California relies on a lot of Medicaid funding. If they roll back the ACA expansion, that's like $10 billion all of a sudden, a hole in the state budget. Right. So we're talking about how tricky it will be for legislators. But at the same time, right, I mean, we rely, our budget relies a third of it on federal funding. So just...

Step back for a second, Guy, and just can you give me a sense of what kind of hit we could see our state budget take? I mean, could California struggle to fund just core services? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, like, so, yeah, the Medicaid expansion part of the ACA where the federal government is picking up like 90 percent of the tab, if that goes away, it's going to be a big hit.

that's more than $10 billion out of the state budget. If there's further cuts to who's eligible for Medicaid, that could be another 10 plus billion out of the state budget. So that's going to be, and the key thing to think about here is California does not have a trigger cut. So it's not as if when the federal government cuts Medicaid,

there's automatic cuts. It will be up to Newsom and up to the Democratic leadership in Sacramento to actually carry out these painful cuts to whether it's healthcare or elsewhere. Now, you could say that's a political opportunity. I'm thinking if you're really savvy, you have the HHS director in Sacramento send out a letter to everyone who loses their Medicaid funding and says, this is a result of the budget passed by the House Republicans and signed by President Trump. But

The fact is they are going to have to carry out really painful changes to the budget if Medicaid is cut because there is so much money that comes from California. Yeah, and also, you know, a lot of people might be saying, oh, well, we have a rainy day fund. Isn't that what it's there for? And yes, we do. But the cuts, the magnitude the guy is describing is just there is no way the Department of Finance said this last week. There is no way. There's no expectation that we can fill the holes that will be left by these massive cuts to Medicaid, transportation, education. So, you know, there's going to be real pain felt.

Exactly. This is not a discord, right? It seems to me that now in this current landscape of politics is created by Trump's own doings.

that being cautious as a leader or governor would be not prudish, but foolish. Marisa, I hear a lot from listeners when we do our shows that they're kind of like, what are the Democrats doing? What are their plans? How are they going to push back? They're real worried about not feeling like they found their footing with regard to a message. How worried do you think we should be about that or Democratic voters should be about that kind of thing? Well, I want to remind everyone that we are in February. Yeah.

I mean, it's about to be March, but we are not even two months in to this Trump administration. And so I do think that and I do think we're seeing signs of life on the left, so to speak, including with these so far pretty successful lawsuits. We've seen folks like A.G. Bonta and others file lawsuits.

Most of them are in very early stages. But I saw one Washington Post article today saying that like in six out of seven cases, they have had courts rule in favor of these Democratic AGs. And so and then we're seeing, I think, you know, on the ground sort of an upswell of pushback. Yeah.

To me, the thing to watch is not just how Democrats sort of try to reorganize in this moment, which they absolutely need to. And I think it's worth noting there is no natural leader right now, the Democratic Party. And I think that's part of the problem. When Trump or Elon Musk was on TV, the entire world watches when Hakeem Jeffries speaks.

it doesn't make as big of, you know, and so I think that part of this is going to be figuring out like who are the messengers and who are the effective messengers and the ones that can actually get attention. But I also think

think that a lot of these cuts and these things we're talking about are not only going to hurt Democratic states and cities. And I think that that is actually where there's going to be power for Democratic members of Congress and activists on the left is to lean into what we already saw over last week's congressional break. Sure, did Indivisible and move on and left wing groups organize some of the protests?

Fine. But those are constituents, too. Right. And I think that when you see, again, the details of these budget proposals, when there's more understanding of what these federal layoffs mean, what these gutting of a lot of these core programs look like when you can't get a parks reservation this summer on your vacation in a very red state like Wyoming. I think that that happens.

has the potential at least to give the left a little bit more, you know, oomph in its message. We're talking with KQED's politics team about how the Trump administration is shaping California politics, about the impact the Trump administration's actions and policies are having on California and will have on California, and who might succeed turned out

Governor Gavin Newsom. We're talking about it with Scott Schaefer, senior editor of KQED's California Politics and Government desk. Guy Mazzarati and Marisa Lagos, correspondents on that desk. Marisa co-hosts Political Breakdown and needs to leave us at the break. But Scott and Guy will be with us. And I see you callers, too. And I'll get to you right after the break. You are listening to Forum. I'm Mina Kim.

Welcome back to Forum, listeners. What state political issues are top of mind for you? Who would you want to be California's next governor? What should California's priorities be during the Trump administration? And are you calling your electeds over any issues at all? Tell us about it by emailing forum at kqed.org, finding us on our social channels, Blue Sky, Facebook, Instagram, threads at kqedforum.org.

Call us at 866-733-6786, 866-733-6786. And put your questions and comments to Scott Schaefer, co-host of Political Breakdown, senior editor of our Politics Desk, Guy Mazzarotti, correspondent on KQED's Politics Desk. Let me go to Tom in Redwood City. Hi, Tom. Thank you for waiting. You're on.

no problem thank you for having this conversation uh... my kind of comment in question is that as a kind of long time democrat i think there is room and an appetite for more fiscal conservative democrat adding to issue that got brought up a lot uh... they might panic circle is uh... affected trump tax cut of the ten thousand dollar federal

and then also just the cost you know that the basic inflation whether the product uh... because of the grocery store excuse me uh... so is there someone on the democratic ticket that most likely going to be someone from that ticket to win that is a little bit more fiscally conservative uh... socially kind of

progressive or liberal, but kind of focuses a little bit more on the on the financial side. Tom, thanks, Guy. Yeah, I guess if you're referring to like the folks running for governor, I would say maybe Antonio Villaraigosa, like that was something he tried, a lane he tried to fill when he ran for governor in 2018, maybe a little bit more fiscally conservative.

Some of the policies you refer to, like the state and local tax deduction, that's a huge issue in California because a lot of people pay very hefty property taxes. They used to be able to deduct a lot of that from their federal returns. That got capped at $10,000. But that's also a proposal that progressives are not going to get behind potentially because the benefits from that really go to the top 1% in the country. So that's one where I'm not sure you're going to see a lot of Democrats jump on board with that.

But I would say Villaraigosa may be someone who can try to have more of a centrist message. And it might not necessarily be around the budget. It may be more around issues that a lot of big cities in California deal with, like homelessness, where there's a feeling that there's not a lot of oversight on spending or that the state government could be providing services a lot better than they currently do. So maybe that's an area.

that that via rogoza could run on and i'll also say like it's early we could we could see more democrats get in to this 2026 governor's race and we could also see some of these democrats maybe try to define themselves in different ways if they see like look my lane uh in this primary is a more moderate lane let me go to caller david in san jose hi david you're on

Hi. Yeah, I am a medically retired Marine Corps veteran, and I spent a lot of time at the VA. I'm here in San Jose. I grew up in San Jose. I'm an Arizona resident. But I'm here on a fact-finding mission to, you know, think about moving back to somewhere where I can be safer from Trump's policies. But that's just going to save me a year or two, I figure. I'm wondering why there's not...

This may sound crazy, but I'm wondering why there's not more discussion about secession. California is the fifth largest economy in the world. We should be able to make it on our own or with other blue states.

I'm hearing a lot about it, not just when I went to the VA in San Jose recently for a medical issue, but even in seemingly red Arizona, I'm hearing these grumblings from other veterans about we all swore to protect the Constitution and the Constitution is being shredded. Do we need to start a new country? Do we need to start over? Well, David, thanks.

There has been a little bit of a surge of secession talk, Scott. Well, for many years, there's been the State of Jefferson, which is a more conservative movement up in the northern part of the state in southern Oregon. They feel that they have been forgotten because of the liberal policies coming out of Sacramento. There was also something on the ballot a few years ago from Tim Draper, Silicon Valley guy, to split the state into, I think, six different states together.

That failed. I mean, the problem with... I mean, David's not the first person. I've talked to a lot of people who say, what would it be like for us to be our own country? Nevada's not going to invade us. And

And I think that's a great topic for a college course. It really is. I mean, I think it'd be fascinating. Like, what would our Constitution be? Would we have CEQA? It would be interesting to kind of recreate California legally, constitutionally. But, you know, the barriers to states seceding is really high. Congress would have to approve it. And there's just too much that, you know, for all the criticism of California, there's too much the United States gets from California in the way of taxes and products and

You know, culture, movies, you know, music. They're not going to just, quote unquote, let us go. In some ways, they probably enjoy having us as, you know, kind of a battering, someone to batter when they are looking for someone to criticize for liberal policies. But, you know, I do think it'll be really interesting to see, like, how would California, Oregon and Washington do as their own country? Yeah.

You spoke with Nancy Pelosi recently. What is Nancy Pelosi saying in terms of what the Democrats should do with regard to what they should focus on? Should it be the shredding of the Constitution and democracy and so on? You said it was Medicaid in part, right? And we actually have a clip of her from your conversation talking about the importance of issues like that. Let's just hear that real quick. It's a middle income problem.

benefit. People think of Medicaid as for poor children, and it is, rightfully so. But a high percentage of the money goes to middle-income families for the long-term care for their parents. Without that benefit, their parents would be living in their homes, in their attic, in their basement. But instead, they have their independence.

Because of Medicaid. So Pelosi is no longer speaker, but her power to shape the message for Democrats didn't go away along with that, did it? Well, no. And she is why I think the party respects her and values her advice so much. I mean, what you're hearing her say there is focus on things that matter directly to people.

you know, focusing on democracy and the Constitution and the threat to free and fair elections. I mean, that does matter, and that is important. There's no question about it. But who is it going to move in terms of voters? Are you speaking to the choir? Are you talking to people who are already inclined to vote for you? Or should you be talking about, like the earlier caller, the threat to veterans' benefits and farm subsidies and all the rest, things that, you know, people don't think about much but which they benefit from, whether they're farmers or veterans or seniors and seniors

I mean, there's just so many things that the federal government does, schools, that people don't necessarily think about. And I think what Pelosi is saying is that has to be the message. You have to say it over and over and over again because that's what people care about.

And increasingly, as the budget comes out and is implemented, there is inevitably going to be cuts. I mean, Guy mentioned the cuts to the Affordable Care Act subsidy through Medicaid and Medi-Cal here in California. That is going to affect lots and lots of people. And they're not all Democrats, believe me. You know, so many of these benefits, in fact, at least as many, they're equally distributed.

You know, there's a lot of veterans in Texas and Arkansas and Wyoming and Montana. And so I think that's the Achilles heel, perhaps, for the Republicans as they go about this mass cutting and brandishing chainsaws. I mean, there's a lot of people who are going to be hurt by that. But part of that quote that was so fascinating to me is like the focus on Medicaid, because I do think the next month what you're going to see is this race to define medicine.

Medicaid. And Pelosi, you talked to her a few weeks ago, so she was kind of ahead of the curve on this. But I was reading the statements from Republicans after they passed that budget framework last night. And Ken Calvert, who represents this Inland Empire district, it was one of the swing seats in 2024. He said he voted for the budget framework and he said, quote, I do not support cuts to Social Security, Medicare and the safety net programs vulnerable Americans rely on.

I read that as he's not naming Medicaid, number one, and he's not thinking of Medicaid as a safety net program that Americans rely on. I think you're going to see the Republicans really try to define that program as having expanded beyond...

a true safety net to, you know, in the case of Medicaid expanding in the ACA to cover people, you know, who are low income, maybe not disabled, maybe not with kids. So it's this race to define, I think, for the American people, what is Medicaid, who benefits from it? And that, I think, will determine in a long way the political feasibility of cutting it because Republicans lost that definition battle

And I think that's one reason Republicans really were so dug in against the Affordable Care Act is that they realize it's very hard to get people to vote for themselves.

cut, much less eliminate, an entitlement that people become used to. It took a while for people to appreciate the Affordable Care Act. And I forget how many millions of Americans, it's upwards above 35 million, I think, participate in that in one way or another. People have forgotten that before the Affordable Care Act, if you had a pre-existing condition, you could be denied health insurance. If that all goes away in one way or another, people are not going to be happy about that.

Tria writes, like so many people, I've been overwhelmed on a daily basis by the unprecedented recklessness and mean spiritedness of this administration. I've decided I may feel less powerless if I am at least funding those organizations that can best push back to see that our fundamental principles, the most vulnerable among us, are defended. Another listener writes, I agree with Trump that we need a strong border, but how it's done ought to be humane and appropriate. The means can't be justification for the ends.

Another listener on Blue Sky writes, do you think we can expect an attack on California's clean air regulations? Guy, you want to take that? I mean, we've certainly already seen in some respects like California, there was these rules around clean diesel for trucks that got dropped once Trump took office. And I do think we could continue to see climate change.

being a battleground between the Trump administration and the state government here. But to be honest, for all the talk about like Democrats versus Republicans or California versus the Trump administration, California's got its own problems when it comes to climate change and affordability that I think Democrats who...

control all, the complete state government are gonna have to figure out amongst themselves and it's not gonna be about blaming Trump, right? The state has these affordability issues that climate change is exacerbating, whether it's people's homes burning down, whether it's the lack of ability to get home insurance because of that,

whether it's utilities having to spend all this money to protect power lines and then passing that along so that people's energy bills are unaffordable. I mean, those are all questions that are on Democrats and the leaders of California right now to figure out. And it's not really a Washington or Trump conversation. It's really difficult tradeoffs and choices that are going to have to come here. And you've also got car companies, for example, who they don't make their long-term plans based on elections. They have really, many of them, committed to making clean vehicles. Right.

here and in Europe. And to just pivot away from that and be jerked around by the federal government is not something that they particularly appreciate either. Scott Schaefer, senior editor of KQED's California Politics and Government Desk. I'm Marza Roddy's correspondent for KQED's Politics and Government Desk. And this is a fundraising period for many public radio stations. You are listening to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. Let me go to caller Matthew in Petaluma. Hi, Matthew. You're on.

Good morning. Speaking of voting inclination, by the time this administration finishes with the people's government, really the only issue that anybody who's running for president next time up,

is going to be re- and here's a good word, a 25 cent word, indemnifying the federal government, putting it back in order, putting it back to something that serves the people. It's the people's government, not some way for MAGA lackeys who are unelected to make money.

Well, Matthew, thanks for sharing what you think should be the focus or will have to be the focus of anybody who succeeds Trump. And a lot of people, of course, have weighed in on who they think should and should not be that person and who they think should and should not be the state's president.

Governor David writes, the state of California is sleepwalking into economic disaster by dismantling funding to the California State University system. Relentless budget cuts to CSU are killing the golden goose that built the golden state. Another listener writes, Harris should not run. She is out of touch. Not sure if they mean for governor or for president. But there you go. Another listener writes, Nicole Shanahan, a former Democrat who was RFK's running mate, is thinking of running for California governor. Hadn't heard that yet. But Richard writes, what's

What are the realistic possibilities for Gavin Newsom's political future? So Marisa said something interesting earlier in the show where she basically was saying that she doesn't think the Democratic Party is really wanting a Californian to run for president. Tell me why. Well, I've heard that about him and I've heard it about her as well. I think there's a sense. Yeah. Kamala Harris, you know.

I think part of that is that voters, no matter what the office is, they look for authenticity. You know, is this a real person who has core values that they truly believe in or are they taking polls and, you know, just basing their decisions and what they're doing and supporting based on what they think people want to hear? Now, Gavin Newsom has some very strongly felt convictions. I'm not saying that.

that he doesn't. But he does have, he is a little slick, you know, and he comes across, he talks in kind of word salad. He's not somebody, you know, there was a meme went out a few weeks ago. He went to some LA Fires press conference wearing like a, what somebody said was like a $5,000 cashmere sweater. The point is, he's not what you think of when you think of somebody who can really relate to the kinds of voters that Democrats have been losing.

working class voters, union voters. Now, it works for him in California, but if you're going to take that to Illinois and Ohio and New Hampshire and all these other states,

I think what that means when people say they don't want another California Democrat is they don't want somebody who too many voters are going to feel is a bit elitist, talking down to them, saying we can retrain you from your job and you can work in clean energy, where a lot of people worry about their culture. This is something that they feel is not respected by the Democratic Party when it comes to whether it's work or family, school, whatever it might be.

And so that's what I think they mean. That's not to say he couldn't get the nomination. I mean, he certainly could. He appeals to an awful lot of core Democratic constituencies.

Diane writes, I'm surprised that no one has mentioned Betty Yee as a candidate for governor. We need someone who understands public finance and public policy as well as the real needs of all communities. Betty Yee guy? Betty Yee, former state controller, who I would say back to this idea of like putting in place a Democrat who has maybe more of like a fiscal watchdog sense. That could be Betty Yee. She's someone who even before her time as state controller spent a lot of time in state government.

I think she worked under Gray Davis as either finance director or in his administration working on the state budget. So if elected, she would definitely bring that kind of sense of knowing the numbers, knowing the state budget. And I would say there are some structural issues with our state budget that Newsom came into office promising to work on and has not done anything. Most notably, the fact that we have such a progressive tax system, which Democrats like. It relies a lot on high income earners, but there's such a volatility there.

that comes with that. And Newsom has floated the idea of making changes to allow us to store more money in our rainy day fund to maybe, you know, make it so that rainy day expenditures don't count against the state spending limit. Things like that that actually would

kind of flatten out this curve that we see where it's like, oh, NVIDIA has this amazing year in the stock market and all of a sudden we have tons of money in our state budget. The next year, you know, the budget is back down in the red. Betty, maybe that's a platform that she could pursue. It's like this is really when the nuts and bolts of state government come down to the budget and there is just a lot of volatility. Guy, with looming funding cuts, you've talked about, you know, how maybe this has played a role in shifting the

People's priorities, whether with regard to ambitious proposals for how to address homelessness or even with reparations. Can you just talk a little bit in the last minute and a half that we have about some of the shifts you've seen in those areas? Yeah, I mean, I think that will be a big defining issue in Sacramento this year is like, to what extent does the federal cuts...

ultimately blunt ambitions for, you know, proposals that would take on new costs for the state. Reparations is one that I think the political winds have shifted a lot around. This was something that Newsom signed a task force to study this back in 2020. There was a lot of support. This was going to be transformative.

And Newsom and a lot of Democrats have honestly just kind of walked away from this and not really held it up as a priority. There was reparations bills in the legislature last year, many of which were watered down. Others, you know, one made it onto the ballot and it was voted down. So I think what I've heard from from black lawmakers in Sacramento who are pursuing this, especially with the federal climate cracking down on affirmative action, is there's a really narrow road ahead for this.

But there are still bills moving forward this year that I'll be following. The impact of the Trump administration on California and how it's shaping California politics. So good to talk with you about it, Guy Marzorati. Thanks so much. And you, Scott Schaefer, as always. Thanks for having us. And my thanks to Marisa for joining us earlier and also to our listeners for asking their questions, sharing their insights.

And thoughts about what is next for the Golden State. You're listening to Forum. My thanks as well to Caroline Smith for producing the segment. I'm Mina Kim.