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Live from the NASDAQ Market Site,
In the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A make or break moment for Apple. The company getting ready to kick off its worldwide developers conference. Can next week's event impress investors and get the stock back in rally mode? We'll debate that. Plus, deal or no deal. U.S. officials set to meet with their Chinese counterparts in London on Monday. Can the two sides come to a deal on trade? And what could it mean for the markets?
And Tesla's rebound loses steam even as the dust settles in the Musk-Trump feud. Lulu's big lemon a day after earnings. And energy stocks get energized to wrap up the week as this is the start of a longer-term rally. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to your live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Bono and Eisen, Courtney Garcia, and Steve Grasso. And we start off at the
Countdown to Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference kicking off Monday, 10 a.m. Pacific time. Expectations seemingly lower going into this event. The company last year unveiled Apple Intelligence, but it hasn't fully delivered on what was promised. Shares of Apple rising over a percent and a half today to lock in the stock's first back-to-back uptrend.
up weeks since mid-February. Still, the tech giant is down almost 19 percent this year, thanks in part to its lagging AI strategy, terror fears, and a murky outlook for the second half of the year. It shed over $700 billion in market cap this year alone. For more on what to expect next week in Cupertino, let's bring in Steve Kovach. Steve.
Hey there, Mel. Yeah, Apple's developer conference does kick off on Monday, coming at the midpoint of a bruising year for the tech giant so far. Apple's facing numerous threats, perhaps more happening at once than at any other time during CEO Tim Cook's tenure. Shares are down around, like you said, 18% year-to-date. So WWDC is Apple's chance to have a reset moment and show investors it has a path forward.
to get things back on course. But it's all with the backdrop of numerous challenges. Let me give you a quick recap of what's been going on this year. President Trump's tariffs and the trade war, of course. Most recently, Trump threatening new tariffs on Apple products at the end of this month if they're not made in the United States. And then the failure to execute on artificial intelligence
After revealing Apple intelligence system at last year's WWDC, most notably it indefinitely delayed the AI update to Siri. In April, court forced Apple to allow apps to accept payments from the web, skirting apps for fees. Apple is appealing that case, but major apps like Spotify and Amazon Kindle, well, they're already taking advantage.
And then there's the Johnny Ive defection to open AI. The design guru behind the iPhone now says he cracked a code for a unique AI device that'll wean us off smartphones. Well, you shouldn't expect Apple to address any of those issues directly. Investors are going to be watching WWDC for any hints at a path forward to mitigate them, Melissa.
In terms of the perception, the narrative that it's behind in AI, last year, obviously, that was what set the stock on fire for some time. This year, is there anything that can change the narrative in terms of announcing a partnership with a different AI chatbot or anything else that can sort of revamp that or reignite that?
Yeah. So last year when Apple Intelligence was announced, Melissa, they did announce that ChatGPT integration and said, by the way, we're going to open this up eventually to other AI models. They, in fact, called out Google's Gemini model by name. So it's possible they announced that partnership is ready. That could help things a little bit, kind of fill in the gaps. And then last month, Eddie Q, he's the services boss over at Apple.
He was testifying in that Google antitrust trial, and he said Apple's actually looking at Perplexity. That's the AI search engine startup, which already has deals with phone company Motorola. They're rumored to have a deal with Samsung. And so that could also help as well, plugging it into Siri until Apple can get Siri updated the way they promised us they would last year, Mel. All right, Steve, thanks. I know you're headed there. Safe travels, Steve Kovach. Thank you. All right, can any of these things...
reignite the shares and or justify the 28 times forward multiple, Tim? I doubt it. But again, we've been surprised before. I think the bar is so low has been noted. And I think the dynamic with China is something that, if anything, maybe there's a little bit of positive here in the last couple of days in terms of overall China trade. The competitive nature for Apple and China, I think their best days are behind them.
I think their best days for them in AI or Apple intelligence are ahead of them. And I think that's part of why I'm relatively bullish. I hate the valuation. I think some of the concerns on the regulatory front are overdone. I think the dynamic around services, the dynamic around where we're going to be, ultimately the way they are going to be, how AI is distributed amongst, I think, most people in the world. I still believe that. I own the stock. I don't expect much. The best days of Apple intelligence have to...
to be they both that there have been a bit of a day so far I bring it bring it on I did that you but that's not my point to you wait in a 28 times forward multiple stock for those days to come yes sir so
Here's where I think Apple was dumb like a fox. What's the saying? Something like that. But when you look back, you have no idea what you're talking about. Sly, sly like a fox. It's supposed to be an ironic thing. So if you go back to the DeepSeek headline, the rest of the Mag7 names traded off precipitously lower. Apple was up 2% to 3% within the first week and outperformed a month out. What kills Apple is China, China.
tariffs, Trump talking about making the product here. But everything that killed the others is Apple's strength. They haven't invested in AI. So that's their tailwind, that they haven't spent $86 billion. They could just do sort of a plug-in for AI with perplexity. That's where I think you're going to get a tailwind. And so negative the story has been, I think it's due for a pound.
Yeah, I tend to agree in terms of your patience, in terms of them being able to deliver on Apple intelligence because they haven't had the robust CapEx spend. I think if we're in this situation and they still hadn't been able to deliver and they had spent 50, 60, $70 billion, then I 100% absolutely agree. Like there's really not much upside there. The other thing is like,
the tariffs and local manufacturing, these are all challenges that everyone else is also facing. There is some idiosyncratic risk in terms of them not being able to really lean into the India build-up that they had, you know, that was like kind of like their first pivot. So there is some idiosyncratic risk, but we're all dealing with the whole tariff thing. I think what you want to see out of this WWDC conference
is them addressing developers because the ruling about processing and fees and fee circumvention for developers, they still need to establish themselves as being the preeminent place where developers come and where they can continue to have that service engine on that robust user install base. I think that's really the one thing. I think anything else as it pertains to Apple intelligence is likely upside for the reasons that we all stated.
And they're going to have to do that at some point, right? I mean, realistically, you're going to have to stay up with the times because it will go by the wayside. I mean, BlackBerry used to be the phone we all had and then Apple came in. And if they don't have some sort of artificial intelligence, you're going to see someone like an open AI who makes that AI device and it could take over. And that's really what investors are a little worried about.
When you look at it and its valuation, I mean, Apple trades about 28 times next year's earnings, which isn't that dissimilar than Nvidia, like 29 times. When you look at sales going forward, it's like four times sales growth over the next 12 months for Apple versus like, what is it, 40-something times for Nvidia? I mean, it's a huge discrepancy. So when you're looking at slowing growth, they're losing share in China, they don't have an AI story, they have
to get that at some point or their valuation isn't going to be justified. Services is growing at 23%. In the last couple of years, it was only growing at 10%. By the way, it's crazy like a fox. That's what I was thinking. All right. So services is probably... I would not have even gone back to it. I mean, we'd move past that. We'd let it go. I wanted to prove that I could recapture it seven minutes later. Completely non-appropriate. Non-Sequidor. Non-Sequidor.
But services is what you're paying for Apple and the two point three five billion installed utility. It's what the utility. It could be a utility. But I mean, but I think they haven't wasted money to Bono's point. They haven't wasted that money yet. So eventually when they do it, it's going to be a hell of a more efficient spend than the others. Could we be at a BlackBerry moment? I mean, I don't want to say that we are or that.
If we're at a BlackBerry moment for the iPhone, then there's a lot of other moments. There's a lot of other technology and hardware out there that we're at a BlackBerry moment for as well. I mean, you can't tell me the move to the small screen is over. And in fact, I think the Johnny Ive news is a total, I think it's total.
total overreaction if, in fact, you think this is the beginning of the end for Apple. There's no question if I also look at all the other market cap increase. Look at the Mag 7, all the other names, for the most part, outside of possibly Google certainly had some issues as well. But you can't tell me the fact that we haven't priced in any AI into Apple in a market where their mega cap peers have. And ultimately, I think it has to go through Apple. That's positive. It's not negative. And at this point, it's in the price.
You know, there's been several wearable devices, you know, whether it was the pins or the badges that they try to come out with. The brooch. The badges? No, I'm kidding. What are you talking about? Like the wearable pin. The pin? Oh, really? I didn't know. Not a writing pin, a wearable. Well, that's the Johnny Ive clip. It's supposed to be like some kind of brooch. But there's been other iterations of this. I don't wear brooches anymore, but when I did, I mean, I can imagine what my Apple would, yeah, anyway. It would be cool. Yeah. Yeah, point being is, like, I,
I do think there is some truth to eventually all of these AI functions are going to be much more integrated into us as the individual person. And so to completely discount that, I think perhaps is swinging too far to the left. Do I see it being an imminent threat? So is it a rim moment really?
really is what we're getting down to. I really don't think it is. If so, to Tim's point, you've got to be looking at social media. You've got to be looking at a whole swath of things that essentially use this phone, smartphone, as their engine for operations.
For more on what to expect out of WWDC, let's bring in Craig Moffitt, partner and senior managing director at Moffitt. Nathan said he's got a sell rating, $141 price target on the stock. That is the lowest target among analysts tracked by FactSet. Craig, it's always great to get your take on things, all things Apple especially. Good to see you. The expectations going into WWDC are so low, and at the same time, that is sort of the table setting for...
a nice upside surprise. I'm just wondering, is there anything that could come out of this conference in your view that can at least allay the fears that Apple is completely behind in AI? Yeah, I think so, Melissa. I agree with what your panel has been saying. The expectations are really low. And so that is obviously a better setup than the other way around like we had last year. What I would say, though, is the one thing that I haven't heard anybody discuss is
If you end up having to partner with, say, a perplexity or if you go off-device to a cloud-based solution like OpenAI,
Just be aware that the problem with that is that takes off the table the upgrade cycle argument that has been really the driver of the multiple for so long. So remember when they came out of the last WWDC last year, the argument was that in order to do agentic AI on your device,
You're going to need at least 8 gigabytes of memory and you're going to need a neural processor for AI. And therefore, you're going to have to upgrade your device and it's going to accelerate iPhone sales. You don't need an upgrade if you're going to do all of that in the cloud. And I think there is real pressure on Apple to find a solution and very likely it's going to have to be a cloud-based solution.
The other extreme isn't good either, right? That is the deep-seek type of model that is so small that it can operate on the device without an upgrade either. So they're trying to thread a needle, which is it needs to be sufficiently demanding of the device that you have to upgrade your device, but not so demanding of the device that they fall behind what can be done in the cloud by their competitors. And it's a very, very challenging
tight window that they're trying to get through here. So, Craig, I like your call. I like when you really put it out there being the lowest on the street because that really differentiates yourself from the street. But when you look at the headlines coming out of DeepSeek where they literally had a tailwind behind them because of the lack of spend, I get what you're saying, but the longer they lag in AI,
That's a time decay. You would think that they're due for some sort of success. And I always believe that the upgrade cycle is about the camera. The camera is easier to improve than the rest of the phone. Well, look, if the camera is the upgrade cycle, it's hard to imagine that you get to the accelerated upgrade cycle. And one of the you guys have all been talking about the challenge posed by the high multiple issue.
If you're going to put an upgrade cycle into the multiple in your terminal growth rate assumption, you're assuming that it's not a one-time cycle, but that you're permanently accelerating the rate at which people refresh phones. And it's been declining now for almost a decade. So you really have to change the way people think about upgrades. And it's going to take something pretty dramatic, I think, to say, no, I need to now start thinking about upgrading my phone every two or three years again.
instead of what it's up to now, which is pushing for. So the camera's probably not going to do it. I'm not sure whether I agree that being late to the party in AI makes it necessarily more efficient, because the challenge you get is that Apple's would-be competitors in AI and the agents that are out there
are starting to define the game in ways that may not be advantageous for Apple, right? I mean, the other bull case for Apple, I suppose, is they develop an agent that you pay $20 a month for and that it's just part of your services revenue for Apple.
The problem with that is you have people like Manus that are developing their agents and others that are developing agents. And if the agent development goes on without Apple for too long, there's a very real risk that that becomes a business that is paid for by advertising and isn't subscription-based.
or you have all these different companies with different agendas. I think Meta would say they don't want it to be subscription-based. They want it to be advertising-based. Probably Google the same. So you have a lot of deep-pocketed players that are trying to aim at the same space with very different agendas. Craig, thank you for your time. Great to see you. My pleasure. Good to talk to you.
All right. So let's say that that upgrade cycle is, you know, muted, let's say, almost. There's no reason to upgrade because you don't need a new phone to operate whatever they have on the phone right now, which is not Apple intelligence. What is the stock worth? Oh, boy. Well, if we're calling it. In owning the stock, are you assuming an upgrade cycle based on AI? I.
I'm assuming that there is a traditional upgrade cycle. I'm assuming that the AI is not the end-all, be-all. I think people are going to continue to upgrade their phones. And I continue to think that a lack of penetration of AI apps out there, there hasn't been a major engagement with the developer community on AI apps. And when they do, and that's part of what's going on here, it's going to go back through the iPhone. And it will lead to more, I think, software and services revenue. So I'm not...
nobody's priced in a crazy upgrade cycle. Well, and I think that's why it's come down from its highs, right? Because everyone was excited about this upgrade cycle that they promised everyone, and that's why you got more sales of this iPhone saying, oh, if you buy this one, like, don't worry, down the line we're going to have some AI, which hasn't happened. And now you're seeing the valuation has come down somewhat on that for that reason. So, yes, I mean, if that super cycle happens, that would increase it if it happens. I think that's the question we're all trying to figure out, which we're losing hope.
All right. Meantime, a date has been set for the next round of trade talks between the U.S. and China. President Trump posting on Truth Social this afternoon that representatives for the two countries will be meeting in London on Monday. This after a report that China had granted rare earth licenses to suppliers of the three big U.S. automakers. For the latest, let's bring in Eamon Javers. Eamon.
Hey there, Melissa. Yeah, we know where, we know when, we know who. It's going to be Besant, Lutnik and Greer representing the U.S. side in London on Monday. What we don't know is what they're going to be talking about. The president in the Oval Office yesterday hinting that there had been some agreements discussed between himself and Xi Jinping on that phone call that they had early Thursday morning.
but not giving any detail as to what exactly they discussed. The president suggesting that that needed to be finalized by staff in a follow-up meeting. This will be that follow-up meeting in London. So the question for Wall Street is going to be, do they paper some kind of a deal here? Even on
you know, minor elements that can give you a sense that they are getting traction on some of these trade items? Or is this a meeting to have a meeting and you walk out of it on Monday afternoon with no major headline suggesting that any progress had been made? I think that's what investors are going to be watching for. It's certainly what folks in Washington are going to be watching for as they monitor that development in London, Melissa. But as of right now, we don't know what the items were that the president suggested might be close to the line here. So we're all going to have to just watch and wait.
Eamon, was there any language out of the White House yesterday that would point to a deal having been made on any level? You know, the president said we have a deal and we're going to finalize that deal. But, you know, if the deal is not finalized, you know, do you really have a deal? Right. I mean, he's often said you have a deal.
Right. Exactly. Exactly. And he's also often said, you know, we have a deal and that deal is the tariffs I put in place and they're on pause right now. And if they want to go back to that deal, they can go back to that deal. Right. So the president is saying he's willing to go back to the higher tariff levels if they don't get some kind of agreement here. But it's clear nothing's finalized or else the talks wouldn't be ongoing. Right. Yeah. All right. Eamon, thanks for clarifying. Eamon Javers, have a great weekend. You bet.
All right, so things are very much up in the air. There is no deal, or there is a deal, but it's not the deal that the markets want, which is why we didn't react at all yesterday. But that's every deal we've had so far in tariffs has been a deal, but it hasn't really, we don't know what the deal is, and it hasn't really been a deal that was fully structured. And I think the deal that was announced by the president yesterday was something along the lines of rare earth. We have some accord. We have some place where we see some progress. There was a discussion.
uh... those are dynamics that i think first of all
I think communication and the building of dialogue is important. I think leading to the fall of key staffers, she and Trump should not be the people cutting this deal anyway. And I think that's exactly where we're going. I think that's what we got yesterday. And it's consistent with how the White House and the president have talked about deals. If you look at it, as long as the dialogue continues, it's positive for the markets. As long as neither side says, I'm done talking. If that happens, the market's down 3% to 5%.
as long as there's an ongoing dialogue that's positive. Positive or market neutral? It's positive. Okay. Yeah, I think it's positive because we factored in a lot of the negativity but watch MP Materials as your barometer to all this because it was up for two days out of five, up 10%. Because no rare earths were coming in. Exactly. It's like always the inverse of whatever's happening. So now all of a sudden if you start to see those rare earths that comes down but if you really think about it, Mountain Pass
is the only rare earth in the United States. So this company is valuable regardless, but it is going to be extremely volatile with these talks.
This feels like a game that I play with my young kids called Hokey Pokey. Your kids are three and basically just born. Three months and two years. Two years. Which clearly is plenty of... And sorry, that game is Hokey Pokey. Hokey Pokey, where you stick a foot in and then you pull a foot out. With the right foot in, the left foot out. And I'm just wondering, if you continue to put a foot in and pull a foot out, are you actually marching forward? And to me, it seems the answer is no. How many times can we continue to go to the same well where...
you know, OK, well, we're making incremental progress. We have something. We weren't talking. OK, this actually isn't constitutional. The tariffs must be paused. Or now that now, you know, you're handicapping my ability to negotiate. To me, it just feels like a bit of us running around in circles. And until you— Well, hold on. That's DuckDuckGoose, though.
Oh, I'm sorry. No, do the Hokey Pokey and you turn yourself around. That's what it's all about. Oh, that's what it's all about. But that's Duck, Duck, Goose, though, I feel like. Well, listen, it sounds like we're playing all the games. That's crazy like a fox. We're playing all the games right now is the point. It's not working. No.
No. All right. It's not working. Coming up, a Tesla turnaround. What is next for the hard-hit EV maker as the stock recovers to some of yesterday's big losses? The long-term impact of the knockdown drag-out brawl between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump. Plus, we're taking a look under the hood. Robinhood already doubling in 2025. What is next for this high flyer? Next, more Fast Money right after this. Hello.
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Welcome back to Fast Money. Tesla attempted a comeback, stalling out after its worst single-day market cap loss in history. Yesterday's drop fueled by a firework-filled online feud between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump. Tensions have cooled somewhat since, with Musk even agreeing with the post from hedge funder Bill Ackman, calling for the two to reconcile. Still, the stock recouped less than a quarter of what it lost yesterday and clocked its worst week since October 2023. So what do you make of this somewhat anemic trend?
Rebound, Tim. I think before we got into yesterday's game of mutually assured destruction, it was a case where Tesla traded from 360 to 320 into yesterday. Even before, I mean, you could make some, maybe some of this was bubbling up. We already knew there was some discontent.
but yesterday's fireworks weren't the beginning of this pullback. And I think you take this back to even Elon, even before he joined the government. So, you know, take it, try to look at the company in the context of before he joined the government, before he left the government. And I think you're left with a company that a lot of people are questioning really whether there's a whole lot to the valuation
That's much beyond the hardware. There is absolutely something is is is driverless. All it's supposed to be. I'm not so sure to me. It's a valuation call. Markets catching wind of that. Yeah. And that's really what I think investors want to see here is some sort of like self-driving vehicles, the robo taxis, which we might get some news on here soon. So I think that's what people really want to see, because clearly you're not buying it at this kind of valuation just because it's a car company. I mean, it trades almost 140 times forward earnings.
But I think the trouble comes is that that full self-driving, a lot of that will take government regulations. And if he's no longer in as much with the White House, is that actually going to go through as much people thought or will they get pushed out of the future? In which case, is this valuation justified? And that's why it went down yesterday more than anything else. And so I think until there's some sort of resolution here, you're going to continue to see some pressure.
Not even in favor with the White House. Now he is an enemy of the White House, which is a much worse position than before the election. Yeah, the most powerful thing, as Court said, was the regulatory ace that he could pull out of his deck whenever he wanted it. And there's so many things that he's relying on right now. That's why the stock did not bounce back. There's too many wild cards that Trump can drop on him now, even as things get smoothed out.
They both have leverage on each other. Trump needs his his his marketplace, needs his media. But he certainly needs the regulatory ace.
Yeah, I agree in terms of the trend already being down before yesterday's fireworks of sort. But I really was trying to kind of parse out what was going on on the back of just the happenings yesterday and today and how the market was kind of perceiving that. And so I looked at the options market actually to try to get an idea of what the dailies were doing, the options that were actually expiring today. And the battleground of sorts seemed to be that 290 strike.
So as opposed to seeing people play from the upside, some out-of-the-money calls and really expecting to be a robust bounce back, what you saw is people that were actually bullets in aim looking to take in premium selling downside and equally, you know, on the other side, people being willing to take
who take the bet that some steam was coming out of this. And this traded a wide range from $0.03 to $4.90, again, that $2.90 strike. So at $277,000 in terms of volume versus I think it was $11,000 or $12,000 of open interest, you're really seeing people make pretty aggressive bets on daily options. There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
We're back right after this.
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Welcome back to Fast Money to our chart of the week now. Robinhood surging more than 13% since Monday, setting a record close today. Shares are now up six days in a row in five straight weeks.
The crypto craze certainly helps. They're going for higher net worth individuals as well. Yeah, I think the Bitstamp acquisition is certainly also a driver for people thinking that this business model is growing. And I think the question is, if the market wasn't back to 6,000, would...
Would hood have performed proportionately? In other words, the beta that it has to the market, which is, I don't know, let's say 1.2, 1.3 times. In other words, this stock is a function of, of at least a lot of, you know, market dynamics that I think are not necessarily all about fundamentals. I do think that the company has proven they've broadened this business model and it's a much bigger demo.
uh agreed the beta is two and a quarter i'm just looking at it i think somebody had to do that right you are really on on point there well i was lost in my beta but thank you well but i mean but i think the underlying premise is very is is very spot on in terms of is this kind of like just riding the wave higher now i do think their core cohort of retail traders is strong and i think the crypto craze
definitely helps that. I actually have concerns about them essentially trying to grow into a full service financial institution. I think that you'll likely see a lower multiple based on that. I think the attrition, them having to kind of like promote and spin in order to attract that user base, I think will be a bit costly.
I think they're in a nice niche. I understand the need to grow, but I would expect some multiple compression if they are going to to grow into a much larger player, so to speak. And we're coming off a time right now when you look at after Liberation Day, it's been retail investors who have been buying this debt more so than institutional investors, which is going to benefit like a Robin Hood because you're going to see more trading activity happening from the retail side of things.
But I do agree. Bonwin brings up a good point is the valuation straight about 60 times forward earning. So the question is, if you're going to have that kind of volatility and be at least at this point in time, it is a lot more transactional and things like cryptocurrency, which are going to be more volatile. Does it justify that over the long run? And that's that's what gives me the pause here.
It's become a trusted name. When this stock first came out, people didn't trust it because it was a new name. You didn't want to bring money there. Now they entice people to bring over 401k money there. User growth is growing. Stellar earnings, crypto, gold, everything you can slice into the financial system, they are servicing people on. So the user growth, I think, is what they're getting paid for now. I get a little bit nervous when you look at the stock chart.
This has had a meteoric rise. So I'd probably take a little chips off the table right now. But remember, if it gets added, hundreds of funds. To the S&P 500, which is the rumor. Correct. Hundreds of funds have to buy it. And it's already had that long run. But you probably get a further elongated bounce. Coming up, a better than expected jobs report boosting stocks to end the week. But is a reaction justified? Weekly Financial's Peter Bookvar joins us next to make sense of what he calls a confusing report. Stay tuned.
Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money Podcast. We're back right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks jumping to end the week on the back of a stronger than expected jobs report. The Dow jumping 443 points. The S&P crossing above 6,000 for the first time since late February. And the Nasdaq locking in its fourth positive day in five. Meanwhile, Omada Health.
And it's debut here at the Nasdaq. The health care tech company jumping as much as 42 percent in its IPO close up over 20 percent. Plus, Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation surging after President Trump this afternoon signed an executive order aimed at speeding the development of electric air taxis and drone tech in Chicago.
And check out the XBI biotech ETF up almost 2% today. It's up more than 20% since early April when the chart master, Carter Braxton Wirth, said to buy this group. Today he's saying it is time to harvest those gains.
Well, one top investor is questioning the street's enthusiastic response to the jobs report. CNBC contributor Peter Bookvar is chief investment officer at Bleak Leap Financial Group. Peter, good to have you with us. Were you surprised at the market reaction? The market seems to want to believe the best case scenario here. Well, it was interesting. Once that data hit, the S&P futures went up like 50 points. And I'm going through the numbers and bonds sold off, too. So I'm trying to square our stock celebrating numbers.
Maybe weakness, because when you include the revisions, but then what's the bond market looking at? So there wasn't really a clear message with the 10-year closing at 4.5%. So I was somewhat confused. I'm a little more clear on the actual number. If you take the downward revisions of 95,000...
Compared to what the market saw at 829, we really only added 44,000 fresh jobs because of the number itself minus the revision. Then you had the household survey that fell almost 700,000. You had the highest number of people working part-time that want full-time work since April 2019. But then you had wage growth that was good. So there were a lot of cross-currents. But I think overall...
The pace of job hiring is slowing. I would not ignore what ADP also said on Wednesday. But the bond market is resiliently higher in terms of yields because they don't believe that the Fed is going to really cut. And even if the Fed cuts, that doesn't mean long rates fall in conjunction with that.
So overall, it sounds like you're reluctantly acknowledging that the data right now is supportive of where we are in the markets? The data to me still remains very uneven. You have the pockets of strength with upper income spending, anything related to AI spend.
And up until we'll see what this budget looks like, government spending has been a massive support to economic growth over the past couple of years. But that rate of change is about to slow. On the weakness side, we know manufacturing is in a recession. Lower to middle income consumers are stretched. The pace of existing home sales are 30-year lows, with the population more than 25 percent higher. So it's very mixed from what I'm seeing. So the rubber is going to hit the road.
Yeah, and then we'll have to see what the impact is in the back half of the year with tariffs because we know businesses, not me saying it's what they're saying, dealing with all the stress and juggling so many balls with tariffs if you are, you know, getting stuff from overseas. Are you optimistic about a China deal, which supposedly was reached yesterday but apparently is not reached because it's the same deal as before, and there might be another deal in the coming?
I don't even know what a deal is going to look like. And when you look at the one in 2018 where they're just going to buy more soybeans and LNG, is it going to be any different? I don't know. So I don't know what one looks like. But I think both sides saw their pain points, us on rare earths, them on technology, among other things, us with small businesses getting stuff from their manufacturers, their manufacturing base wanting to sell it to us. So where this settles out, I don't know, but...
I don't know. I thought the bond market reaction was more interesting than the equities. And I know you've kind of said that. You at least saw both sides of it. They were inconsistent because arguably the expectations were it was going to be a weak number. So if anything, I think bond expectations were inconsistent.
And the negative here is that the move to 450 gets you back to a place where you're near a breakout on the 10-year. Not, you know, but... And for the right reasons or not. In other words, if the 10-year was only around 439 going into this print on fear of a weak number, the market is positioning for...
And I think the economic news could have been arguing for less buoyancy on the economy, but more concern on long rates. So it's a long way of saying I thought the bond market's reaction would be concerning if you're an equity investor that thinks because, hey, look, I want to see the bond market sell off. In other words, yields go higher on economic strength. But this wasn't that strong.
Right. There is a global aversion to taking much duration risk. We've seen that in Japan. We saw it in the UK. The bond police are driving around global bond market neighborhoods looking for those countries that need to issue a lot of bonds and that have too much debt. And I do think, to your point, it is very noteworthy, that bond response today to what was under the hood a softer jobs number. But it is a global thing.
Investors don't want to lend money to governments that are over-indebted for 30 years, or 10 years for that matter. So I think that this is a multi-year situation that we're in. We had a 40-year bull market in bonds with lower interest rates, and we're a few years into this bond-bear market. And I don't think you can just look at U.S. growth and inflation and then come up with a 10-year yield. There's a broader global thing going on here with sovereign bonds. So $6,000 is an important...
you know, level that we crossed once again today to the upside. Where are we at the end of the year in your view, given all this backdrop and given the uncertainty? And I know that's a very unfair question because even companies can't give an outlook. But what's your outlook for the markets? All I'm confident in for the rest of the year is that international markets are going to continue to outperform U.S. markets. The foreigners are rethinking the amount at which they want to own U.S. assets.
So that reallocation outside the U.S. is going to be reflected in a weak dollar. And where the S&P goes, I don't know. But international markets, this outperformance is not just a one-quarter thing. It's potentially a multi-year thing. All right. Peter, thank you. Great to see you. Peter Bookbar, Bleakly. What do you think, Courtney?
I mean, it's definitely there's a lot of mixed data here, but I think this is still going back to the soft data versus the hard data. And the hard data still hasn't fallen off here. And I think one important measure that came out, which markets were optimistic to see, was the fact that wages have been rising. And that is enabling consumers to continuing to spend even with inflation and which hopefully is coming down here. But even if tariffs kick in, that's what that's why the consumer is holding up. So I think that's why markets are positive here. But you have to continue to watch and see how it comes out in the future. Amiga Trades.
So when I see your Peter concurring on MIGA, I also think, you know, Gary Cohen, first of all, he was fantastic yesterday. And not only was he fantastic because he was a calm voice in a crazy afternoon, but like the MIGA trade, but he liked the MIGA trade. But one thing he said as related to the tax bill that he's very confident is going to get through in some capacity and we're going to balance this budget.
is that in 2018, when this deal went through, the amount of foreign participation in our market picked up. In other words, there was a very strong rally in here. And I think some of that really was, again, it was great. It's why he said it would be a disaster if they couldn't settle this thing. But ultimately, some of the structural reasons for investing in the US economy, I just think Europe's actually addressing those things themselves.
I think part of this is less anti-U.S. than Europe's been forced to actually stimulate their own economy, be less regulatory, be less predatory in terms of fiscal austerity. That's why you want to own it. Coming up, a high energy Friday for stocks. The beaten down sector coming to life today and leading the market higher. But are the gains here to stay? Plus, Lulu pulls a muscle with the athleisure stocks strained after a big warning in its earnings report. Will the cracks spread to the rest of the consumer space? We'll debate that right after this.
Welcome back to Fast Money. The energy sector leading the S&P today. The XLE up nearly 2% up for the first week in three. The group, though, still down about 3% in 2025. The stocks helping fuel today's gains, APA, Cotera, Halliburton, Devon Energy, EOG Resources, all with solid moves higher. Steve.
Yeah, I think people overestimated the chances for a recession. These jobs numbers today probably put that into question. I still think there's a major lid on the price of oil, which is going to get in the way of large integrated names. Saudis are upping production by the tune of 411,000 barrels per day. OPEC upping production. There's so many headwinds right now. I would probably just play this really carefully in the energy space.
So speaking of energy, I know Tim also often talks about how airlines are some of the greatest trading stocks. I think if you look at some of the renewable names and you look at some of the uranium names, these are also presenting a tremendous opportunity for you to trade in and out. I would say renewables just in the last two weeks have probably had moves upwards of 30 to 35 percent. So I think that's just like another trading vehicle that you should look at.
tangentially to your OPEC-related servicers and integrators? One of the first, the couple sectors that outperformed, again, all the things we talked about, Peter Bookvar, were, hey, better economic strength, energy was one of them. And it was a case where I think we priced in GDP contraction in the energy sector in addition to supply dynamics. But the demand dynamics were out there. And I think that was part, I think they're oversold. I also think fundamentals and
At $65 oil, I think the big integrators look good. I like Chevron. I like Exxon. Yeah, and I think longer term, too. I mean, the supply and demand constraints here, especially as AI continues to have the kind of demand that it does, there's not enough energy to go around. So you're seeing this with some things like Meta and Constellation Energy earlier, like I think that was earlier this week that we saw that news. But you're good. It's kind of an all-hands-on-deck when it comes to energy. So, yes, it might trade here on some short-term news. But long-term, I think there's absolutely a play you want to be in. All right.
Coming up, Lulu loser. Yeah, your stock getting slammed on the back of a dire earnings warning. What this name had to do to get back in shape. Next, more Fast Money in two.
Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Lululemon plunging nearly 20 percent, its worst day since 2020, on the back of rough results from the retailer last night. Lulu beating estimates on the top and bottom line, but cutting its full year earnings guidance, citing tariff uncertainty and a cautious U.S. consumer. The CFO saying the brand is planning strategic price increases to help offset the tariff impact. They're assuming 30 percent tariffs,
from China goods and 10% on the rest of the goods. And that's sort of causing this whole concern about Lulu. Yeah, and tariffs are the concern that I think they're elating here. But I think the other issue is you're seeing that consumers are spending less on athleisure, especially post-COVID, but they just really have a competition problem. People aren't going to Lululemon as much as like your...
Your Viores and your Athletas, they have a lot of competition right now. And I think that's the bigger question is if the tariffs do get resolved, can they still bring back their consumer? And I think that's what people are trying to figure out right now. Jeffries, which has been right on on this name, Randy Connick.
Great job. The brand is rolling over as competition is rising. Big problem. Yeah. And it's and another analyst out there is calling this a show me story now. And that's a fair way to put it, too, because they were given the benefit of the doubt. They're given the benefit for leadership. They were deserving of a multiple.
Now they're talking about different things that are supposed to get you excited about the competitive landscape. I mean, this a line, no line legging, I mean, has me excited. I mean, I have to tell you. You don't like the line? Who wants that line on the legging? You mean like literally, like it's seamless? I don't know what it is. It's just what I read. I mean, I'm heard product launches. I mean, you know. Chief legging correspondent. All right. Off next, final trades.
Welcome back to Fast Money. We should note that we had the best time last night at our Fast Money live event right here at the Nasdaq. It was great to meet some of our loyal fans. We got to snack on some of New York's best eats. I think there's Nathan's Hot Dogs. Nathan's Hot Dogs, Krispy Kreme Donuts, J&J Snack. The food was almost as good as the company. These people were amazing. It was really fun. It was very nice to meet you all. And we'll let you know when the next one is. Time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Tim Seymour. Yeah, first things first. We have...
there always a good run of pages here from the NBC page program another superstar Asa Lawson Asa give it up where is he can we get the camera on Asa?
He had a smile every day. In a league of his own. Yeah, he is one of the best, and we appreciate you, Asa. So, final trade, I think we talked about energy. I think the European integrators look most interesting. TTE, Total Energy. Bono. Brown Foreman. The divergence that I'm seeing here between this name and the discretionary names is really a cause of concern. No real need to jump in and catch a falling knife. BF.
Courtney? The XLE. I do like the energy story here. I think it's something you want to play, especially in the long run, so I'd take a look at this. Steve? Know the EV car company that's the least reliant on federal subsidies? Rivian. Lucid. No. I guess they should have picked Rivian. Lucid, and I like the Saudi backstop. All right, thanks for watching FAST. Good luck ASAP. Mad Money starts right now.
Thank you.
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