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And like Mark has said, in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Housing headaches from builders to construction equipment to home furnishing, a wrecking ball coming. For anything in the housing trade today, can the group get back on solid foundations? We'll debate that. Plus, a market mystery. Bond yields rising even as the rest of the risk-off trade catches a bid. What's behind the not-so-parallel moves and what does it say about what is next for the markets?

And later, big deals in biotech, all the headlines out of the ASCO conference in Chicago. Time to buy Disney, why the chartmasters are suddenly bullish on the House of Mouse. And live from the Arctic, Brian Sullivan joins us from Alaska with the latest on one of the biggest U.S. energy infrastructure projects in decades. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. I'm the desk tonight. Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Guy Dami, and Julie Beal.

We're going to get to that market mystery in just a few minutes, but we start off with the latest blow to a housing sector already on a shaky foundation. Construction spending falling in May for a third straight month as economic uncertainty mounts and mortgage rates stay high. That sent the XHB home builder ETF to its lowest close since late April. The group now down 11 percent on the year. Big names like D.R. Horton, Lennar, Toll Brothers, KB Home all seeing losses. But the bleeding doesn't stop there. Housing adjacent names like Restoration Hardware plunging

more than 7 percent. Well, our house, Stanley Black and Decker, Williams-Sonoma also kicked off the week in the red. So with nothing seeming to work in the space recently, how do you play the housing names, if at all, Guy? I think you stay away. And we've been pretty consistent on this one. They all sort of peaked out. And I'm looking, I mean, right around November of last year. And it's been basically a straight line lower. Now, things have bounced since April, like

you know, a lot of the broader market has. But with that said, it hasn't been a pretty robust bounce. And I will tell you, I mean, you could trade that, in my opinion, you could trade down the levels that we saw in the fall of 2023, which, by the way, coincides with the low of the TLT. If you remember, that's when 10-year yields went higher. So definitely about yields. I think it's also about the employment picture. Yes, it's also about consumer confidence. I mean, these were April numbers. April consumer confidence was terrible. May, we saw a bounce back. We could see a bounce back a little bit.

in May in terms of housing activity? I think we probably will. In fact, I think based upon just what the market has done, there is some correlation to that. But back to the pain in the housing sector and really where things peaked, I mean, 2024 overall was the worst week for weekly mortgage applications since that data was put together back, I don't know, it was even pre-2008. So some of those numbers were starting to get better in the first quarter. And I think as of Liberation Day, they probably get worse. But back

to the homebuilders, I mean, there have been some that have been trading just on interest rate sensitivity alone. And I think he can only go to the well so many times on that trade. I think he also got to a place where the housing, the homebuilders were...

You know, not terribly priced in terms of valuation, but at some point also those that were eating some part of the financing cost and building that into the overall margin profile. You know, it's it's so look, I think we're still in a difficult place. I think the consumer, despite a respite, I think is still somewhat strapped. But, you know, again, soft data is what it is. The hard data hasn't been that bad.

So, I mean, the underpinning for sure is rates, right? And if we look at the 30-year, that's just going to be such a super strong headwind.

This cycle, I think that, you know, we talked, Tim talked about what they eat in terms of lower rates. They don't seem to be so inclined to continue while they face some other margin pressures. I mean, I look at something like copper today going up a lot. That's probably not great. And they've had, you know, it's been a difficult time. So my biggest exposure, single biggest exposure related to housing is Zillow. And I love that asset light model. Remember where they did that terrible foray into owning houses and flipping them.

They got out of that. But until then we see a lot more activity. This platform isn't going to be able to show how profitable it can really, really be. They've also been making a lot of leeway into rentals, right? Yes. So that is a great, excellent point. Thank you for bringing that up. That has been an excellent addition for them. But CoStar is also in that space and trying to, you know, they're all trying to eat each other's lunch. Redfin, we saw a deal there. So it's competitive, but we just need more volume.

this rate, things also on Hope Depot, Lowe's, that's not great for them either. I mean, speaking of eating some of the costs for a mortgage on the part of the homebuilders, Julie, I mean, I read that you can get a mortgage for 5 percent through a lot of these major homebuilders. I mean, you compared a mortgage rate of 6.79 percent on a 30-year. What are they eating and for how long can they do this? And the fact that we are seeing, you know, some resistance forming on the part of the consumer to diving in, even with those buy-downs, you know, that's a consumer who's still on the sidelines.

Yeah, I think it's exactly the rate I think is the much larger picture and driver in terms of what's happening with this business. The biggest challenge that they have is that really no one wants to pay these higher rates. And not only that, you still have a consumer that is locked into a lot of their long-term mortgages and with no real rate relief in sight. You know, it's like I listened to a lot of these home builder conference calls and they all talk about this kind of vanishing horizon of when interest rates come down.

And I think what's important to mention is like, yes, we are technically in restrictive territory, but we're not super high on a relative basis historically in terms of interest rates. It's just most home buyers are really used to rates being much lower. So I think the real question is, is what does this business model look like if rates kind of stay maybe 100 basis points lower than they are right now? Are these businesses really as robust? Are they always going to have to offer these discounted rates?

Well, meantime, let's get to a major riddle forming in the markets today. On top of that weak construction number, the ISM manufacturing index dropping for a fourth straight month. That disappointing data helped traditional safety trades like gold rally, the precious metal settling at its highest in nearly a month.

Bonds, on the other hand, couldn't seem to catch a bid. The 30-year yield hitting 5 percent again, while the 10-year closed back in on 4.5 percent. So why isn't this part of the risk-off trade working in light of signs of a weakening economy? We were musing about this on our 1230 conversation.

call that we have on a daily basis we were musing we muse about many things. In fact, I think I was using about you how you doing with your Yankees yet a tough week. And it's a good thing about baseball they play one 62 to get overly excited in May and June like some Mets fans that I will we play we play we should be amusing on the show to know. Every day here too as well so if you think about today's market

It was the combination of, I think, the most important forces right now, which are the Fed. We had Waller yesterday. We had Goolsbee today. We had some Powell rhetoric sprinkling through that the Fed actually could be closer to rate cuts. This was the most recent rhetoric. And that's obviously good for the markets. I think if you look at where we are seeing leadership again from the market, it's not massive and it's not out of control. But I look at this relative performance of the Nasdaq to the S&P and

And we're inching back to levels where we're getting close to the all-time highs. The index is where it is, but as we say, we were at relative highs back in July of 2024. So that stuff's interesting to me. Semiconductors continue to still outperform a little bit.

The dollar weaker, I realize if you're looking at a weaker dollar and a weaker treasury market and a weaker equity market, we start thinking about all those things around deficit and the rest of the world. But for equities just in isolation, a weaker dollar for a lot of these companies is actually very strong. I think that was part of the uptrade today.

So I think part of it, though, you talk about the deficit. I think that for sure, you know, there was a story today on PIMCO and Double Line is sort of on strike, right? Not willing to be in the long bond and, you know, wondering, all right, as this bill makes its way, what will it end up being in terms of how much it will add to the deficit?

And I don't know, it's at some point, who knows when, but maybe that's just starting to weigh. Now we'll have to see how they choose to fund. Right. Probably towards the front end of the curve, probably bills. Right. But is there is there another reason? Is it that people think the tariffs will be inflation coming back later or soon? I don't know. Right.

Jamie Dimon, I'm sure you talked about this on Friday, but he obviously talked about another, I don't know exactly what he said, but disruption in the bond market will crack.

You know, they're positioned for 5 percent. They said they'll do very well. And I absolutely believe them. But, you know, when he says things like that, you don't have to agree with them. But I think you absolutely have to listen. And I think if the economy, if the soft data wasn't as soft as it was, yields would be much higher. That's the only thing helping the bond market right now is the fact that the economy is weakened, I think. I mean, that's somewhat, I mean, counterintuitive. I mean, that's what you have to be rooting for if you want rates lower. But I still think 10-year yields are going much higher from here.

Just one more thing. What's helped a lot in the inflation picture is energy. So low. Yeah. Right. That's been a huge tailwind for getting CPI down. But so now if that turns right, we saw a nice pop today. Right. Move today in energy. Definitely.

Right. Well, one of the investors profiled in the big short is not willing to take on a lot of risk right now. Let's bring in Steve Eisman, host of the Real Eisman Playbook podcast. He's former senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. Steve, great to have you with us. Thanks for having me back. Podcaster. I mean, look, he goes from Steve Eisman's suit and tie. And now he's got a podcast wardrobe. He always looks good, though.

Thanks to Valerie. Great job. Anyway, my wardrobe has been redone by my wife and daughters. As it should be. All right. So in terms of not willing to take risks, why not? Are you worried about valuations? Now, what is your biggest concern? I have one concern, and that's tariffs. That's it. I mean, the market's gotten pretty complacent about it. But, you know, in any...

trade negotiation, the details really matter. And I think negotiating with Europe about tariffs is incredibly complicated because each country effectively has a veto on any issue that it wants, that thinks it's important. And I don't know what's going to happen with China. I don't know how to handle, I just don't know how to handicap this because there's just too many balls in the air. So, I mean, I'm long only, I've taken some risks down and I'm just sitting pat.

What do you make of the action in the bond market? And I know, you know, we've been on a number of panels in the past and you said, I can't think about the deficit. It matters. You were talking to Jamie Dimon before. Every couple of years, with all due respect to Jamie Dimon, who's a great CEO, Jamie Dimon likes to get on his soapbox and start uttering nattering nabobs of negativism.

Hold on. Nattering nabobs of negativity. That's very Dr. Seuss. That's alliteration, guys. That's what we call alliteration. William Sapphire wrote that in the 70s for Spiro Agnew. It was actually very famous in its day. I like to use it once in a blue moon. That was the time. It was. Well done. So when Jamie gets on that nabob soapbox of his, I tend not to pay too much attention. All right.

All right. So you don't want to take a lot, but you're still long only and you're still long and you're still in, I would assume, Mag 7 heavily. I am. So you're not, have you changed that position at all? Lightened up? I mean, I've lightened up a little bit on pretty much everything, but I'm pretty invested.

So I think it was the last time that I was on when you were on, you talked about Nvidia and Jensen Huang. Yes. And how you have never seen anyone sort of, I don't know if it was confident or something to express confidence. I mean, those numbers were wild. Yes. So that was a wild back. I mean, when you think about it, what is this, a $3 trillion company whose revenue grew 69%? I mean, it's unbelievable when you think about it. It's insane.

So I just think the AI revolution is early. But, you know, if, God forbid, there's a trade war, none of that will matter in the near term. It just won't. What do you make of the gold market, Steve? Because, I mean, it sells off, but then it comes back on days like today, raging back. Karen mentioned copper. I mean, I think the gold market is trying to tell us all something. Thoughts?

I'm not a gold guy. I tend not to pay too much attention to gold. I really don't. So, by the way, Steve, it is a real Don Johnson look you're working tonight. And so that's I'm using that as my wife and daughter, hopefully, are watching and they're taking the compliment. 100 percent. It's a compliment. And that was probably when Miami Vice was was run. It was probably the last time we balanced the budget. Now, I know you don't care about the deficit on some level.

But I do think it's relevant, at least when, at least around the times it appears that this administration blinked when we had a 10-year auction and there was some, there was certainly, like the rest of the world was paying attention and we were seeing a spike in the tenure. That was a combination of a lot of themes you've at least listened to for years. A lot of these themes aren't new. In fact, you, you know... Not new. They're 40 years old. Correct. So therefore...

You at times have played that theme, at least the theme around where the system was either over levered. I never played the deficit. Right. I mean, I sat in a room with Pete Peterson in the 90s when he was nabobbing about the deficit back then. So I. But our foreign investors nabobbing about about investing. I really just don't take all that all that seriously. You know, people like to pontificate. You know, the deficit is Wall Street's version of virtue signaling.

People like to come on shows like this and say, I'm against the deficit. And then the next guest comes and says, oh, he's not. I'm much more against the deficit than he is. It's an all-virtuous thing. But at the end of the day...

Yeah, the 10-year has gone up, but it's still 4.5%. It's not like there's some massive crazy sell-off. So, like I said, it's virtue signaling, but I don't take it all that seriously. At what point, though, do you get concerned about the level of the 10-year? Is it 5? Is it 5.5? I mean, if it's over 5, 5.5, yeah, we'll have a conversation about it. But, you know, until then, I mean, think about it, though. At 5, 5.5, you know, relative to where it's been because rates were zero, it's high. But relative to history, it's not that high.

What will get you concerned about the deficit? Anything? You know what the problem is? The issue is that the entire financial system of planet Earth runs on the dollar and runs on treasuries. Period. Seems like a good thing for us. Right. But that's my point. There's trillions upon trillions of repos happen in the banking system every single night on treasuries. So if there was an alternative to treasuries...

I might be worried more about the deficit because I'd say, well, if we don't balance our budget, then people will sell our treasuries and buy something else. But what else are they going to buy? They're not going to buy Bitcoin. It's not big enough. They're not going to buy Chinese bonds. That's ridiculous. They're not going to buy European or Italian bonds. It's absurd. So until there's actually an alternative to treasuries, it's virtual signaling. That's how I think about it. Okay.

You said you are worried about the trade war. Are we in that trade war now, though? I mean, was the trade war April 2nd when the tariff situation— We're not in a trade war yet. We're not. Okay. But like I said, the negotiations on these types of things are very complicated. They take time. And anything could happen. I mean, nobody wanted World War I to start, and yet it happened.

So I don't know what's going to happen. Would it surprise me if a year from now there's an actual trade war? It wouldn't surprise me. Am I hoping for a trade war? Absolutely not. Do I think that's the base case? Probably not. But it's not a de minimis risk.

You're so optimistic, Steve. It's like almost it's a breath of fresh air, actually, you know, instead of all the negative nabobbing that goes around. Nattering nabobs of negativism. But what does keep you concerned about this market? It's the tariffs. It's the tariffs and what's going on. I mean, for example, you know, was it last week or the week before President Trump got all angry about Europe?

Well, the reason why I get, I think, angry about Europe is the EU, this is something I found out fairly recently, has total authority on tariffs. But they don't have authority on anything else. So let's say they're negotiating to try to get more agriculture into Europe.

France doesn't like that. So if France says no, they have veto power over the entire EU on that one important issue. Each country in Europe basically has effective veto power over issues that they care deeply about. That's a very difficult negotiation to engage with. And one of the reasons why I think President Trump did what he did threatening the other week is like, you know, if you don't negotiate, we're going to hit you.

But, again, that doesn't necessarily mean that the EU is going to bend. I don't know how it's going to come out. I really don't. All right. Steve, thank you. Great to see you in your new regalia. Steve Eisman, the real Steve Eisman Playbook podcast. Julie Beal, what keeps you up at night about the markets? Is it just tariffs? Is it something else?

I would say it's mostly tariffs. And I think like, especially after this whole taco situation, I think actually, if anything, that adds fuel to the fire and determination to President Trump to follow through with these choices that are absolutely uneconomic and really problematic for how we get goods.

around the world. And so I think that that's actually more concerning to me in the near term. For sure, to me, deficits are always concerning in terms of interest rates. But I think the bigger issue right now is we do not have any kind of predictability around tariffs. The dates change weekly and the numbers change by orders of magnitude. And to me, I think that just makes all the flow of business more difficult.

If you look at the market and you look at a chart, it's a V. Okay, so we've come all the way back and if the rhetoric even tonight whether it's Steve or whether it's you know, Julie saying what I was saying, I mean this basically says you should be going back then to buy the things that were working before. Now I think some of that's true until it doesn't work but I mean we've spent a lot of time in the last month talking about the holes we could blow in a handful of the biggest companies in the world whether it's Apple, whether it's Google, a lot of people are worried about Nvidia, I'm not one of them.

I think that today's price action was fascinating because also you have industrial metals, parts of the economy, parts of the investment spectrum that actually were working that haven't been working. So, again, I think you can follow some of these miners and metals plays. I think you can follow some of the utilities plays. And I think we're going to talk about that.

Coming up, ad blockers, why the group is getting hit as Meta leans into its AI ambitions, and what the ad industry should brace for if other tech giants do the same. That's next. And some pharma deals making headlines, how Bristol-Myers and Sanofi are bolstering their pipelines and the major moves and the names they are teaming up with. Do not go anywhere. Fast Money is back in tune. This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.

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Welcome back to Fast Money. Meta shares jumping more than 3% and closing at their highest level since late February. A new report today saying the company plans to allow brands to fully create and target ads by using AI by the end of next year. Content would be personalized based on metrics like user location. That news sending stocks, shares of advertising companies like WPP, Adrepublic, and Omnicom sharply lower today. This is a really interesting move, Karen, considering Mark Zuckerberg talked about this very thing

like a year ago on an earnings call. Right. I guess then it was much more pie in the sky. And if it was a year ago and I don't know what the time frame at that time was at the end of 26 then.

that might have been enough time we're like okay well that was sort of the metaverse time frame also i don't know so i mean this is fascinating obviously you got to think about those advertising stocks how much they're down how much could meta on its own on its own incomes right their own sgna how much could they how much more efficiency could they gain doing that as well as how much more advertising interest could they get by supplying that product so uh i mean

Still think the stock's not crazy expensive at all. That was a pretty big move. Not expensive at all. It hasn't been. That moved, what did it get down to, $480 or something in early April? I mean, that was a staggering move to the downside. But we talked about this almost a year ago that, along with Walmart, Facebook was really the only company that figured out how to sort of lever AI. And now you read this and you're understanding what's going on, which I think actually makes it more attractive on a valuation basis. Shouldn't we then extrapolate this ability to use AI to target customers?

adds to an alphabet or any others that derive a lot of their income from advertising? Yeah, and I think we have. But I think it is...

The message here is that Meta is in a pole position to really dictate the terms and dictate the terms. You know, I mean, like advertising dollars make the world go around, so it speaks. But on some level, they are in a position to really determine just how effective those dollars are. And the measurement of that is another big part of it. And I think, you know, at this point, you can't really fight Meta. And that's what you hear from businesses. But I think it's what you're hearing from advertisers as well.

I'm wondering, does Meta really want and or need TikTok to be around now so that they don't get an antitrust outcome that says you're the only game in town? We've got to dismantle this as opposed to having a very serious, real competitor. Right. Yeah. Yeah. What do you think, Julie?

Yeah, I mean, if I think about the power of the algorithm, particularly for TikTok and its ability to create commerce that's really specifically targeted, right? I spend way too much time on TikTok. I have bought so much of this like new PDRN salmon sperm stuff. If they sent that to Tim, Tim's too smart for that. He's not going to buy it, right? But

But their ability to, well, I just don't, Tim's so smart, you guys, he'd never do that. But me, I'm an easy mark on that kind of thing. And I think that the thing is that the ability to even be able to create more of that ad content that's so targeted, it's really powerful and it's really efficient for anyone trying to sell anything, literally anything. What is Julie buying on? What are you buying? What is that again? It's like, it's the Metacube makes this salmon dish

DNA that's super good for your skin, PDRN.

And it is like this pink jelly stuff that goes on your skin, makes it very like luminous, whatever. It's being sold to me by like 20-year-olds. Like what business do I have paying attention to that? Weren't you walking around with that pink jelly stuff on you? I tell you, you are glowing. You are glowing right now. And it's a little fishy. It's either your LED mask or your salmon DNA. Anyway, free advertising for all these products today. A lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

Pharma firming up their pipelines as drug deal headlines send stocks soaring. The names jumping and what we're seeing in the biotech space. Next, plus the Alaska gas gamble. What the nation's biggest energy project could mean for U.S. output and the companies that could benefit or be left behind. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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Welcome back to Fast Money. Biotech outperforming the broader health care sector today with the XBI gaining 2.5%. The move coming amid several new deals in the space. Blueprint Meds up 26% after the immunology company agreed to be acquired by Sanofi for $129 a share. And BioNTech surging while Bristol-Myers also finished higher in the news that the two will partner on the development of a new cancer drug. Angelica Peebles joins us now from ASCO in Chicago with more on the oncology developments to watch. Angelica.

Hey, Melissa. Well, that deal was definitely the talk of the day, the one between BioNTech and Bristol-Myers Squibb. So Bristol is paying BioNTech $1.5 billion up front and up to $11 billion to get its hands on this drug, which goes after two cancer targets. Now, this is an area where we've seen a ton of investment over the past few months. We've seen Merck, Pfizer all getting in. But this one is especially interesting because BioNTech originally licensed this drug from a Chinese company for $55.

million dollars and then they went and they acquired the company outright for about a billion dollars just in February and now they're turning around and they're partnering with Bristol to co-develop and so that has been the talk of the day everyone talking about the price tag and just the interest in this space there's a lot of people who are excited and there's also a lot of naysayers so that is one to watch and this drug is part of what's called

a bispecific antibody. And again, the idea is that it goes after two targets for cancer. And so we also talked to another company that's developing a bispecific for head and neck cancer. It works a little bit differently. But the CEO of Marist telling us that, you know, I asked him about the hype. Where are we in this cycle right now? Here's what he had to say.

We view the trajectory as really promising and moving forward. We think that a number of other approvals that have happened recently only support the strength and the opportunity for bispecifics. So there is a ton of excitement in this area, and it's definitely one to watch, whether it's large pharmaceutical companies, smaller biotechs like Marist. So again, Mel, a lot to watch in that space.

All right, Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. The outperformance we should know in biotech not just today, also in Friday's session. So it's putting together a string of nice gains here. Yeah, I mean, we don't really talk about ETFs, but IBB, if you go back and look, in the fall of 23, traded at 112. Look at the low we made in early April, 112. Gilead, I think we've collectively talked about. That had a huge run, sold off back on the horse. That's 9% of the IBB. I think you want to be long IBB here, Melms.

It's a fascinating time because all we do is talk about GLP, but, you know, immuno-oncology is a hot space and it's a place where some of the also-rams, and I know I'm saying that facetiously or kind of tongue-in-cheek because Bristol-Myers is not an also-ram, but they haven't been part of this GLP movement. In fact, almost no one else has other than Novo and Lilly. And this kind of

looks to further increase the lead they have. What's interesting about this is this, at least this deal is around a drug that will be taken on Keytruda. And it seems like it's another one of those knocks against Merck and really a flagship that they've had for a long time.

Yeah, Ted's just going to bring up Merck. I mean, so pressure's on Merck, right? They have a little time, but they've really got to come up with something. It does feel, Julia, like finally, we've been talking about the need to acquire, to improve pipelines, but it seems like companies are actually stepping up to the plate now.

Yeah, I think there's a real recognition that there needs to be a replenishment in terms of the new assets that are coming up. And it feels like people are actually willing to deal, willing to come forward. And we need that, right? I think part of the idea too is that some of these solutions may have a very specific application, but something that can be learned from it and applied to something else. And so when it reaches that point, that's when it really should be

glommed on to a larger franchise, a larger company that can really develop it and expand the applications beyond that. So I think that's the exciting part. And to see more innovation happening, these companies really need that refreshing. Coming up, a gas gamble in the last frontier, the White House pushing a major LNG project in Alaska. Our own Brian Sullivan is live in Alaska with more. Brian.

We are in Prudhoe Bay, the Arctic Circle. Going to wrap up our coverage, just for you, Melissa. We're going to hear what the Secretary of Interior has to say about stocks and competition if this Alaska LNG pipeline does indeed happen. That is after the break from literally the top of the world.

Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks climbing into the green to kick off June trading. The Dow up 35 points, its third straight day higher. The S&P rising a tenth, four tenths of a percent. And the Nasdaq up more than a half a percent. Shares of digital infrastructure company Applied Digital surging nearly 50 percent after inking a long-term AI lease agreement with NVIDIA-backed

CoreWeave applied digital saying it expects $7 billion in rental revenue during the 15-year period. CoreWeave also higher on the news now at more than 200% since its IPO in late April.

Just quickly, Karen, Corweave's short interest is a whopping. It's a whopping 31 percent of the float, not of the overall shares. But those aren't available for trading right now. So that's up quite a bit. I know, you know, the sort of narration of the narrative of change of AI story. But this is well beyond that. Yeah.

Well, energy prices surging today with crude, RBOB and natural gas all settling firmly higher and a big boost to nat gas production could be on the way with President Trump once again backing a near $40 billion project to build a new pipeline in Alaska. Brian Sullivan joins us live from the last frontier with more on how it could impact the entire energy complex. Brian. Melissa, by the way, quickly, speaking of oil, oil up today on the OPEC News.

The Alaska oil pipeline, I don't know if you can see those buildings back there. That's basically where it starts. That is well head zero. The Alaska oil pipeline, we were there earlier today, really dramatic. All right, so what they want to do, and they've been wanting to do this for 30 years, okay? But there's a new push to build a natural gas pipeline that would run basically alongside the Alaska oil pipeline till the very end. And then you'd sell that LNG, liquefied natural gas, to Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines, Korea, etc.,

This plan has been on the table for a long time. The cost estimated 38 to 44 billion, plus you gotta build the liquefaction, you gotta do all these things. ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, this is kind of their land right here along with privately held Hillcorp. They have remained noncommittal about whether or not they will kick in capital to build it. So for fast money, here's the thing.

There are two major publicly traded sellers of LNG, solo LNG, in the United States: Chenier, ticker LNG, and Venture Global, ticker VG. Obviously, Chevron, Exxon, and others are players, but for Chenier and LNG and Venture Global, that is their core business. So earlier today, way up here by the wellhead, we asked Secretary of Interior Doug Burgum, if this pipeline were to get built and we started exporting more LNG,

What would that mean for competition for other American natural gas companies? More American LNG we sell to our allies around the world, the safer the world is going to be. And in terms of price competitive, if there's a slight higher cost here in terms of transportation to get it from the North Slope down to the southern tip of the southern portion of Alaska,

It's made up because the transportation cost, if you can ship for eight days versus 24 days, you got one third the transportation cost to get to a place like Japan. And so net-net is going to be very competitive from a pricing standpoint.

So if this pipeline, big if, if the pipeline were to get built, how much LNG, natural gas, are we talking about? They estimate about 20 million metric tons a year. The world sells exports about 400 million. So you're looking at about 5% additional capacity to the global market in a market, by the way, expected to grow, according to Shell,

by 50% in the next 10 years, guys. The hope is that if this gets done, again, big if, if it gets done, it would supplant some Russian LNG. Of course, this would take about eight years, but down the road, it would supplant some Russian LNG. Factor this in your models for the Cheniers, the venture globals of the world. We're wrapping our coverage from literally the top of the world where this is as dark as it gets. Even at two in the morning, this is what it looks like.

outside as we learned last night i hope you brought your blindfold for going to sleep tonight and you're going to need it or blackout shades um all this production goes onto the market and prices come down i mean that would i think would think be bad in the longer run for an lng or a bg

So what the industry has said, yes, the hope is that it would supplant Russian barrels, Russian natural gas, so that prices could remain consistent. I'll tell you what the industry is a little bit upset about, guys. The Export-Import Bank, which is based in Washington, D.C., just gave a loan to Total Energies of France for a big LNG project in Mozambique.

So kind of the industry is saying, well, we're talking about this Alaska pipeline. Why is the Export-Import Bank giving a loan guarantee to a French company for a project in Africa that would also price compete with us? That's a geopolitical thing. Either way, the LNG market's growing. The question is, where do we get it? Qatar, Russia, United States. That's why there were three cabinet members here, a governor, a senator, and a beloved CNBC host,

- Who would that be? In terms of who pays the 40 billion? - Alex and Casey, great job. - Who would pay the 40 billion, Brian? - So ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Marathon Petroleum, which has the export terminal in the lower peninsula, they have all remained noncommittal. Basically, they're probably saying, "We're happy to put our gas in your pipeline if you build it." Who would build it? Short answer, probably be foreign loan guarantees,

Japan, Taiwan, Korea, if they commit to taking 20 years of capacity, that loan guarantee probably enough to create an FID, final investment decision, which will get it built. I don't think the Exxons, the Conicos of the world are going to put up the capital. But hey, we don't know. We just don't have a commitment yet. We'll see if this gets done. Brian, outstanding work. Thank you.

Thank you. Brian Sullivan from the top of the world. Pretty cool. Very cool. I hope his ears don't get too cold. He's got a hat. Yeah, he's got big ears, too. You know, no, he does. I mean, he'll laugh about it. Chenier is interesting. I know he's listening right now. You ever call him Baby New Year? I haven't yet. Okay.

Remember that one? Yes, he just did, basically. Sorry, Brian. Chenier, listen, made an all-time high in January, sold off hard. It's getting back to the levels. It's not expensive in terms of valuation. And I've read chatter that, you know, if more energy is going to get in the S&P 500, Chenier is a name that could potentially make it

in. So I like LNG here as well. All right. By the way, we are just days, days away from the next Fast Money Live event here at the Nasdaq market site. Thursday is the big show. Our diehard Fast Money fans are coming from all over the country and even from way down under Australia. It's going to be a jam-packed show. You won't want to miss a director of the National Economic Council and President Trump's first term. Gary Cohn will be here. We'll also hear from former J.P. Morgan chief global strategist Marco Kalanovic. All that plus

Guy will go amongst the people. We'll take questions from our fans live during the show. So tune in on Thursday for the big show. It really will be a big show. It's going to be great. Must see TV. Coming up, sports betting stocks going bust. The group contending with a new tax hike in Illinois. The details and what happens if other states follow suit. That's next. Plus, is there some magic in Disney's technicals? But the chart master is going long and whether you should make the stock part of your world. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

Welcome back to Fast Money. Gambling stocks rolling lower today after Illinois lawmakers passed a loss, a new state budget, over the weekend which raises taxes on sports bets placed in the state. The fee starts at 25 cents for the first 20 million wagers and increases to 50 cents after that. DraftKings, the hardest hit today, down 6 percent, its worst day since early March. Tim, do you think this is a big deal?

I think it can be. I mean, I think every state is looking to get theirs. And that was part of the reason why you wanted to own it on the way out, because there was a revenue stream that I thought was attractive. But I do think that there's ability to claw back as much as possible. I just think the competition in the space right now is everybody's everybody's eating each other.

And at some point, you know, we're going to talk about Disney and ESPN. I mean, there's a lot of places where you weren't expecting them to be a competitor. DraftKings was out front. There's a lot of other places that I think are also competing for their dollars. The August low last year, I think, was around $30 in DraftKings. It looks like it wants to get there. But, you know, we've heard news out of Illinois before regarding this. So...

Tim makes a good point. I mean, it's clearly something to be concerned about. The question is, at this price, is it pretty much priced in? I think you buy with both hands at 30 if it gets there. Then you overlay, you know, macro concerns about the consumer, Julie, and maybe you have a space that you don't necessarily want to be a part of.

Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, gambling holds up relatively okay in recessions. But I think this tax issue is a much bigger deal because if we continue to see more of the federal government trying to pull back spending on states, they're going to have to raise money somewhere. And this is a very easy, very popular way to raise money for them. So I think that's a risk as, you know, as one state goes, the rest may follow. And so that'd be a real concern I would have here. Yeah.

Coming up, a technical tale as old as time. Why the charts could be pointing to a whole new world for Disney and where the chart master is drawing the lines. That is next. More Fast Money in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. Disney shares basically flat this year, but have rebounded more than 40% from its April lows. And the chart master says that for the first time in a long time, he's seeing an opportunity to go long. Carter Worth of Worth Charting joins us now. Carter.

Well, sure. We have four identical charts before we get to them. I mean, the thing is, this is remarkably not a big company in the S&P. Think 40 basis points, literally four tenths of one percent weight in the S&P 500. And yet it's the mighty Disney. Let's go to the charts and try to figure out if indeed the way is higher. So here is a

long-term chart going back to and pre-COVID low with no lines, no annotations, no drawings, let's put some in. And if you see here on the second iteration, if we were to start the conversation from that COVID low, of course, Disney plunges about 50% in the COVID sell-off, and then it rallies hard from 80 all the way up to 200. And then it plunges again in the 2022 bear market. But

But you see how precisely it has responded to those trend lines, it has found that low three times and it responded and backed away from that downtrend line in effect since its

its high post-COVID bounce. So, the next chart is a judgment. And you'll see it here because it has no arrows but one. It's an up arrow. Others might draw differently and say, no, it's going to fail here, Carter, at the downtrend line yet again. But what's so important is look at how precise those lows are. Do you see there the COVID low is $79.07.

The 2023 low is $79.73. The 2025 low is $80.10, all within a dollar. Do you think that's PE, or price to sales, or enterprise value to EBITDA, or price to book? No, it's just that levels matter. And so final chart, it's an epic triple bottom. I would make the first conclusion that the lows are in. Now it's a question of whether it has upside. That's a little harder to figure out. That is my conclusion number two, that it does have upside.

Carter, thank you. Good to see you. Carter Braxton Worth of Worth Charting. Tim, do you like this triple bottom? I do. Who doesn't like a triple bottom just like that? All right. And that's a good one. And I think there's a lot of things going on here, including just profitability from streaming. I think ESPN is undervalued. I think some of the parts. I think there's a lot of cyclical headwinds to Disney's theme parks. But guess what? That's not what drove the stock to $200. It was all about streaming. Profitability is important.

Sandy's in my ear talking about salmon sperm. He wants me to say it on live TV, but I'm not going to say salmon sperm again, Sandy. But you just said it five times. Got to take out the March high, which I think was 124-ish. You get above 124, you buy it again and look for that breakout that Carter's talking about. Julie looks particularly glowy. Interesting. Salmon sperm. What do you think of Disney?

Yeah, I think seeing it's nice to see that the attendance is starting to improve at the parks because I think that actually is the real driver of earnings. Everyone is very fixated on the profitability of streaming because it's such a headwind to the overall business. But I think the parks are really where the money is made. And, you know, I think it looks like it's improving from here. And so that that makes me more optimistic. Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, this is a barometer in some respects of consumer spending, the consumer feeling good, and this is experiential. And it's also for your children, which I think people are probably less inclined to cut back on. Yes, I heard you were talking about do we take the kids on a sigh.

It will happen, I'm sure. I mean, you know, I'm not long dizzy. I haven't been long. And it's really had a nice run. I'd rather be in Netflix. I am in Netflix instead. Although we had a great time at the introduction of the Disney cruises. We did. That was fun. We had a lot of pictures together. Mickey. Mickey. Minnie. We were there with Minnie. And it was a good time. Yes. They do it well. Nice job. Yep. Up next, Final Trades. Time for the Final Trade. Julie Beal.

SSD, which is not for sperm salmon, but it is for Simpson, which I think will be negatively impacted by the housing, but they maintain their margin guidance, so I feel pretty good about that. Tim? I'm the only one that hasn't said the salmon thing tonight. I'm going to stay as the only one that didn't say it. I'm going to say Freeport. I think they've got a lot of gold exposure. They don't get priced in. I think we're in a five-year copper bull market. Karen? Yes, Amazon. I like the AWS business. I like the retailers. I also like the advertising business.

Kevin Pritchard, the president of basketball operations, huge fan of Fast Money, the Indiana Pacers. Congratulations, KP. Newmont Mining, though. Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money starts right now.

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