Last published episode: 'Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 04/10/25
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The U.S. and China are competing for global leadership. The country who wins will define the world we live in. U.S. international assistance is vital to our national security. It helps prevent terrorism and avoid costly wars. It fights diseases and saves lives. It helps keep America as the number one economy in the world.

U.S. international assistance protects our interests at home and abroad. If America doesn't lead, China will.

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Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome, everybody. Welcome to Kramerica. I'll be my friends. Hey, look, I'm just trying to make a little money. My job is not just to entertain, but to educate, teach, call me at 1-800-743-CBC. Tweet me, Jim Kramer. One of the most stunning things that's happened in my lifetime was when Nixon went to China totally out of nowhere. 1972. We thought we'd done something unthinkable. We'd embraced Mao Zedong. We decided our mortal enemy was no more.

We were going to be acquaintances. In 1979, we normalized relations between the two countries. We did a billion bucks in business in the next year. In 1985, we imported nearly $4 billion from the People's Republic of China. 2001, China got into the World Trade Organization. We bought over $100 billion in goods from the PRC. 23 years later, the number is roughly $439 billion, an insane amount, especially given how little they buy from us.

But those days are over. Now, excluding the first three and a half months of the year, it will be almost nothing unless the president can cut a deal, something he doesn't seem that eager to do. I don't know about how you think it is. Hey, by the way, the Chinese aren't too eager either.

Now, I think that what's dawned on people today, and it was not a pretty sight, is that maybe there is no deal for some time. That's why Dow's tumbling 1,015 points, S&P plunging 3.46%, NASDAQ plummeting 4.31%. Okay, it came on top of some amazing results yesterday, but the sell-off decimated some areas and left us think that this China issue could be with us for a while.

We now have 145% tariff on Chinese goods. You know, a number that high, frankly, isn't really a tariff.

It's more of an embargo. Almost nobody's going to pay that much of a markup. It's a recipe for losing money. I think Trump knows that, and he seems more angry at the previous presidents who gave away the store than he is at President Xi, whom he always says he respects a great deal. As much as I sympathize with what President Trump is trying to do here, and I do, we simply aren't ready yet for this. As a nation, shamefully, we've gotten addicted to cheap Chinese imports.

Last year, we imported $127 million in electrical equipment alone. Think smartphones, computers, lithium-ion batteries, video games. We brought in $85 billion in Chinese machinery like computer hardware, industrial equipment, toys, games, sports equipment, $32 billion. Plastics, $21 billion. $20 billion in furniture. And you can expect, as you figure, it's Walmart, it's Amazon, Target, Home Depot, Dollar Tree. They were the big importers.

Now, I want you to imagine what happens when these imports dry up. It is not good. We do not have enough sourcing capability around the globe to make up for this lost merchandise. Now, layer on our companies that have high revenue exposure to China. Las Vegas, Sands with 63%, Qualcomm, 62%. Wynn Resorts, we just saw them, 47%. Corning at 33%. Intel, 27%. According to Goldman Sachs, and I got to tell you, they're all hung. And then figure out which companies are China, using China as a major base of manufacturing. Apple, 70%.

Hewitt Packard, 40 percent. Dell, 40 percent. HP, 30 percent. And that is harrowing. These numbers are from Bank of America Research. Much longer set of numbers available on CNBC.com if you're intrigued by this. Long story short, hate it or like it, and I hate it, our economies are deeply intertwined. I don't want it.

But I don't know about this way of doing it. Our people are definitely going to take a real hit from this. We'll survive, but it's incredibly disruptive, very inflationary. I fear that the Chinese will have more stamina than we do. Their people might have a higher pain threshold than we have. They live in an authoritarian dictatorship. They're on a warrior footing. We aren't.

Now, it's possible that we can find alternative sources for some of these things, but you can imagine empty shelves in almost all the stores for Christmas. A Dick's, a Best Buy, a Target, and maybe not a Walmart, maybe a Macy's. We know there are other countries that are clamoring to make the things that China makes, but it's not realistic to believe they can pull it off in such a short period of time. The companies that are dependent on China, companies like Apple, are going to have a very hard time moving their manufacturing. They'll have to take a monumental hit. I have said own Apple, don't trade it for years.

But boy, oh boy, will Apple suffer if the White House doesn't cut a deal or at least give Apple a needed exemption, as it should have given because it's pledged to do so much here. Is the market reflecting any of this? No. But something else is happening, too. People are investing in companies just started yesterday that don't have all that much exposure to China or none. You can see it in health care, excluding drugs, which are still facing the possibility of their own set of powers.

United Health Group and Humana are good examples. They were up once again. I mean, it's really incredible. Former up nearly 3 percent. The latter up 2 percent. Sancora and McKesson, you know those middlemen, they always work. Kroger rallies 3 percent. Why not? American grocery store chain. Con Ed is doing well. Utility, Verizon, perfect. Coca-Cola, waste management. Yeah, these are timeless.

The best, you know what's the best? TJX. A ton of retailers will have to order a lot of inventory to be able to get through the holidays. Too much inventory. And they'll then have to offload their unsold merchandise to TJX. There is a reason the stock keeps finding itself on the new all-time high list, other than the fact that I'm next door to one and I go there all the time. Finally, and most obviously, there are three retailers with the balance sheets to win and to own. It's Amazon, Walmart, and Costco.

Take a look around at all the other retailers. They could be in their death throes. Death by withdrawal.

With the exception of the two big box hardware stores, I don't know how they can make it if they're up against those big three. On the other hand, there are a lot of hidden problems. Companies that are relying on some key elements from China. I was looking at a deck on Stanley Black & Decker, a stock that we fortunately sold at a good price for the Chapel Trust. $1 billion in their cost of goods sold came from China. They said that a 10% China tariff is equal to $90 to $100 million for them.

We're doing 145%. Best Buy, ooh, another tough situation. Oh man, they got a source from China. No, thank you. Of all the companies that we'll never know that need parts made in China, parts you never heard of, well, that's gonna come too.

these companies, the auto companies, the trucks, the machinery, all the automotive after parts, all the stuff that we thought we were making, they've been making. Sure, we can do without their sandals and their pens. We don't need their gift wrapping, their printed bags. We can get Samsung stuff from Korea to substitute for Apple, even though we certainly don't want it. They're the winner. Yeah, Korea. And the best company in America is the loser because it bet too big on China.

Remember, this all happened because our previous leaders decided that we might as well outsource our manufacturing to other companies because they could do it cheaper than we could.

I like to mention my dad's business because it's so pertinent. My dad represented the best gift wrap companies in the world in Philadelphia. He sold the very finest champions, St. Regis. I stole some of the rolls from 50, 60 years ago. They are gorgeous. But China came with this real cheap, nasty gift wrap. And America likes cheap. One by one, the mills that my dad worked for went under. It was a terrible business. Then one day, he switched sides, worked for the Chinese because they made themselves the only game in town. All the American guys were out of business. They all got wiped out.

He sold their plastic bags. And hey, they treated him fabulously. He developed a terrific business starting at 72. It was still bubbling at 92 when he died. He had a great last month. I know, I had to pay the taxes. But how about the people who were in the mills popped repped?

Who knows? And from the heads of both parties, who cares? Sacrificial lamb shanks. I think what we saw today was the beginning of a sorting period between those that have no China exposure and those that do. Unfortunately, those that do employ a lot of people and are excellent companies, but they may not be excellent enough to make it through this new environment. And that is a real shame.

Oh, I'm sure we can live without China. Really. But America will be a far more expensive place with lots of unemployment and reliance on other countries outside of China. Yes, I think we have to take them on now or never. But there'll be lots of pain ahead, more than we might be willing to take. And we got to do some changing some portfolios. So the bottom line, is it worth it?

Depends. I think it's worth some temporary pain to drive a hard bargain, though, and get a more favorable trade deal out of the Chinese government. But it's not worth it to go back to $439 billion in imports to zero. Unfortunately, I'm actually thinking that might be where we're headed. Hey, how about Tanya in South Carolina? Tanya!

Hey, how are you? Tanya, I'm dynamite. How about you? I'm wonderful. I'm excited to talk to you, but I have a question. This is my first time investing in stocks. So what do you think about Coca-Cola? I love that. I think it's true. James Quincy is terrific. It's got a good dividend. It's really well run. It's got an international presence, but at the same time, it's not as a China problem. And it's doing well in this environment. You have.

We have a winner. Hey, why don't we go to Josh in New York? Josh. Hey, Jim. Josh. First time caller. Big fan. I was born in Philadelphia and I've got a baby on the way. So I'm bullish about my own future here. I like everything about you so far, Josh. This is the best date I've ever been on. Well, second, my wife was dynamite. That was a great date. That was a blind date, believe it or not. Good.

All right. And I wanted to see what your thoughts are on Estee Lauder. The stock hit an all time high. No, Josh, it's just a total turnoff, man. Everything was going so well between us. And I got to break up this date right now, right here. Estee Lauder is one of the worst companies I've ever invested in. I don't want you to do that. As a matter of fact, they have four and 99 others that I like more. I am very sorry, but we're going to have to end the relationship right here, right now. Let's go to Mikey in South Carolina. Mike. Jim, how you doing? I am doing well, Mike. How about you?

I'm doing great. Hey, thank you so much for taking my call. And before we get started, I just wanted to say that on behalf of myself and family here in Ohio, that we love you and appreciate everything that you do, man. All right, guys. I'm looking at my staff telling them how great this is. Thank you so much. You've been a couple of challenging days. Holy cow, getting up at 2 a.m. to see people wrecking the market and stuff and then not being able to get back to sleep. You bet. What's happening?

Hey, I've held Shopify now for more than five years and wondered if you thought it was still worth accumulating shares, especially better than ever. The shop master. I think it's great. Harley's great. I love those guys. I think you got a total winner. I would not trade. I would not move a share. Shopify. Yes. I just don't think it might be worth the pain to go from a

I have a trillion dollars in trade where the country is zero like that. And from this tape, it looks like the market agrees with me. Remember, I share the goal of the president. I just don't want it done as precipitously. OK, I mean, it's hard to find winners in this volatile tape, but I've spotted some opportunities in domestic food retail space that I think could work here. You might even know that constant stream of tariff updates, not from here.

Then I'm taking a look at one lesser known farmer named Sherry. If the recent decline could be a buying opportunity or not. As I just said, this market is shying away from anything with China exposure. So should you invest? Maybe you should turn to a regional bank, a key corp when I'm looking at a financial. I'm getting the latest from the company's top brass. So stay with Kramer.

Don't miss a second of Mad Money. Follow at Jim Kramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Kramer. Hashtag Mad Mentions. Send Jim an email to madmoneyatcnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-CNBC. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.

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Because while allergies are unpredictable, staying prepared is easy. For whatever happens next, grab Kleenex. Although we've now been liberated from most of the Liberation Day tariff announcements, we're still left with a very challenging market, aren't we? Because we're dealing with 145% tariff on China.

our third largest trading partner and a 10 duty everything else with the possibility of more than more than that once the 90 day pause runs its course the universe of stocks that can work in this environment simply isn't that big it shrinks all the time it was bigger than it was two days ago but can we still find potential winners if we know what we're looking for which brings me to casey's general store

And Cracker Barrel. These picks are based on the idea that we'll still have a somewhat soft consumer spending environment. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if we still have a recession. That's why we want stocks that are mostly immune to the tariffs and that can work in a slowdown that, of course, are domestic. KC's and Cracker Barrel mostly consist of off-highway locations, perfect for a stop during a cheap road trip, which I think will be the preferred mode of vacation travel now that people are a lot more worried about their money.

At the same time, they both offer great value, and I very much believe that consumers still crave value. They'll crave it even more in a severe slowdown. So let's take a closer look, starting with Casey's. That's the Iowa-based convenience store chain with nearly 2,900 locations across 20 states, mostly in the Midwest, offering self-service fuel, a wide selection of groceries, and freshly prepared food items. In particular...

Their pizza is very popular, even though some of these formulations sound downright criminal if you live in New York. A bacon, egg and cheese pizza. I mean, I'm sorry, where I come from, that that belongs. That's a sandwich. But the great people of Iowa, they choose to disagree with me.

Now, Casey's has grown gradually over the years to become a true powerhouse. It's the third largest convenience store chain in the United States. It has the fourth most liquor licenses among U.S. retailers. And it's even the fifth largest pizza chain in the country.

Yeah, but I tell people I like this one who live on either coast, they think I've lost my mind. Until I hear someone from the east or west say, yeah, man, I love that pizza. That pizza's so good. I know we are still early in the Casey's game, and I can recommend it to you. More importantly, Casey's knows exactly where its merchandise sells best. Small towns where there's convenience stores, principally a cornucopia of essential items. I wonder if they even know what a tariff is. I mean, wait a minute.

When you're in the heartland, people don't tariff things. Two-thirds of the stores are in towns with less than 20,000 people. Not a lot of tariffs there. Case is also vertically integrated with its own distribution centers and a large fuel tanker fleet, which helps give it the scale to negotiate favorable contracts with its suppliers.

Whatever they're doing at Casey's is clearly working, as this has been a fantastic growth stock for years on end. This is up 40 percent over the past 12 months, and it's giving you a monster 2,391 percent over the past 20 years. I'd eat breakfast pizza every day for games like that. But I feel confident recommending it here because the stock never got hit all that hard during the volatility over the last couple of

of months. While Casey's pulled back nearly 15 percent from its mid-February to early March, the company then reported phenomenal quarter set the stock soaring to a new all-time high by the middle of last week. And it's still within a couple bucks of its high despite the tariff terror since then. Oh, I wish I'd recommended it into that pullback, which I bought from a charitable trust for heaven's sake. But honestly, Casey's has been at or near its highs every time I've talked about it.

And it's always turned out to be a good time to buy the stock. Plus, even after its big gains, the stock isn't all that expensive, trading at roughly 28 times the next year's earnings estimates. It's a great growth stock, so that's all right. Given the company's track record and consistency, I'm happy to pay a multiple that high. As for Cracker Barrel, well, this one's a much more of a turnaround story under relatively new CEO Julie Messino, who took over in August of 2023. Now, we haven't tracked the progress of Cracker Barrel since the last spring. I told you to wait until the company cut.

It's once over large dividend and something that happened shortly thereafter. After that, I started to truly get on board with this one. Now, we've had Messina on the show a couple of times over the past year, and she's making solid progress on the turnaround. Refining the Cracker Barrel brand, enhancing the menu, involving the store and guest experience, improving the company's digital capabilities. I am impressed at the end.

onset of a store refresh effort, Cracker Barrel tested a couple of different types of remodels with various cost levels. They wanted the benefit of store remodels, but they didn't want to overspend if they didn't have to. I thought it was very smart. All the while, Messina's not losing sight of Cracker Barrel's fiercely loyal customer base, and she's also offering them great value. Now, initially, this stock roared as Cracker Barrel's turnaround started playing out.

It's rallying from the mid-30s to the mid-60s in late January. Unfortunately, this led straight into the broader market sell-off, and the stock's been wrecked since then, plunging into just under $39 as of today. But here's the thing. There were no real negatives about Cracker Barrel, specifically during this period.

I think it's pure guilt by association. Unlike Casey's, which is part of the consumer staples cohort as a convenience store, Cracker Barrel is a consumer discretionary play. And those have been hated since consumer confidence numbers started softening earlier this year. As those concerns morphed into outright recession fears.

People just sold the whole discretionary sector down, even the ones that represented good value like this one. Also, unlike Casey's, Cracker Barrel's quarter couldn't save the stock. But if anyone cared to dig into the numbers, this was just another strong quarter. Same restaurant sales up 4.7 percent, nearly double what Wall Street was looking for. They also posted a solid revenue beat, a 30 cent earnings beat off a dollar weight basis.

Management even raised the four-year forecast. I think it was absolutely insane that this $38 stock is now down $27 from its January highs. Do you know at this point, this turnaround stock sells for just 14 times this year's earnings estimates, thanks to the recent decline in now sports and nearly 2.5% yield after they got the dividend.

If yesterday's 90-day pause on most of the large tariffs means that we can stop dumping whole groups like the consumer discretionary sector and start evaluating companies on their individual merits again, then I think it's a great moment to bet on another Cracker Barrel comeback. Here's the bottom line. Even after yesterday's rebound, I still think you need to think critically about what kind of environment we have and what stocks are working here. And that's why I'm steering you toward these purely domestic terrific conversations.

Yes, maybe niche. Casey's General Store and Cracker Barrel has plays on budget conscious vacations this upcoming summer with cheap gasoline on the road. There are different stories with different investment cases. Casey's a long term outperformer. Cracker Barrel is a turnaround story. But you know what? I like them both very much going forward. Stay with Crick.

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On Tuesday night, Denise in New Hampshire called in to ask about this thing called Organon, which is a drug company focused on women's health that was spun off by Merck four years ago. She wanted to know why it was doing so poorly. And, you know, a pharmaceutical company that outsized dividend yields to 9.4% at the time goes back down to 8.6% today. Well, this sure looks like the kind of recession-proof man that maybe we should be buying, right?

Yet, Organon, it's been a nightmare. And its current level of $11 has changed. This stock is down more than 50% from its highs last August. Now, if you pull back the chart a little further, this thing's down 71% from its all-time high back in March of 2022. And it's barely above its all-time low of December 2023. While I know of Organon, I've never really followed it all that closely. So I told Denise that let me take a look at the darn thing, get back

After a woman's had a better idea of what went wrong here. So let's take a step back for a second. A few years ago, Merck spun off this business in order to bolster its growth profile. Merck wanted to focus on cancer and immunology and vaccines. It didn't want to manage the flattish or declining sales from its women's health business.

along with the big generic drug portfolio. Now we've seen similar transactions from Pfizer, which merged Upjohn Generics business with Mylan, spun it off as a business called Viatris, although slightly different, GlaxoSmithKline, spun off its consumer health business as Halion for similar reasons. It wanted to keep the faster growing pharma division and jettison the slower growing consumer division.

The products of these spin-offs, from Organon to Viatris to Hyaluron, they won't give you much growth, but they're typically very profitable and usually feature very high dividend yields. That said, I've become wary of these big pharma spin-offs.

Sure, yes, they got that great dividend yield like Oregon on. But I can't shake the thought that, well, the former parent companies keep getting rid of these companies for a reason. If these were really attractive businesses, would Merck and Pfizer and Glaxo have thrown them away or would they kept them?

And just look at the high level of financials for Organon. We can see immediately why the stock's done so poorly in its first four years of trading. The company's sales is relatively steady, just over $6 billion these past few years. But Organon's earnings per share have shrunk every year. Finally, it fell gradually at $6.54 per share in 2021 to just $4.11 per share last year.

Because of those slowly declining earnings, you'll see these off-patent, generic, no-growth spinoffs often have ultra-low-priced earnings multiples. Organon trades at just over three times this year's earnings estimates. That's lower than GM! Now, it might look very cheap to you, but do not be fooled. These are the ultimate value traps. Organon, for example, has missed earnings expectations for four of its last nine quarters. Hey,

Hey, other times, even when Organon's beaten the streets' low expectations, the company has still managed to disappoint investors with its forward guidance. And that's what happened the last time they reported in mid-February. Organon posted inline sales, which were flat year over year, managed a 3-cent earnings beatoff at 87-cent basis. Then the company disappointed with its four-year 2025 guidance, which was substantially lower than expected. And you know what?

They implied a year-over-year sales decline of 1% to 4%. Oh, man, a drug company with that decline. Now, there are a couple more factors that explain Oregon's recent poor performance. First, the company has significant revenue exposure to China, which is its second-largest market, accounting for roughly 21% of revenue, according to fact-set estimates. Kiss of death, China.

The U.S. is only 25% of the revenue, so China's almost as important for these guys. And as you might have heard, we now have 145% tariff on Chinese goods, and they have an 84% tariff on American goods. Anything that high is basically what I call an embargo. So a fifth of Organon sales might be at risk here. No wonder the stock's been obliterated. Then there's the other thing, which might be the biggest thing, even more significant than the trade war with China. See, Organon has a dicey bow

balance sheet. Sell, sell, sell. This is another typical characteristic of these big pharma cast-offs. The former parent typically uses the opportunity to foist a big chunk of their debt off on these businesses that they spin out. It makes sense in theory, given that these spin-offs, companies do typically have strong cash flows that make them better suited to pay off debt. But if you're looking at these companies as fresh investments, heavy debt lows are major negatives.

Now, for Orionon specifically, the company ended last year with nearly nine billion dollars in debt, which is roughly triple the company's two point nine five billion dollar market capitalization. Now, let's say you back out the six hundred seventy five million in cash and cash equivalents. You get a net debt load of about twenty eight point two billion dollars.

Given the Organon's guiding for just under $2 billion in earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization this year, that means the company has what we call a leverage ratio of 4.2. That is very high, even without the possibility that the company might lose a fifth of its sales thanks to the trade work.

Oregon's debt load has some major implications. First, the company simply has a huge interest expense obligation every single year because of that debt, over $500 million. The good news is that most of Oregon's debt doesn't mature for a few years, but there are some large maturities starting in 2028. As that gets closer, if Oregon can't refinance its debt, well, guess what? The company might have to make some tough decisions. And you know what one of those might be? How about whether they should pay a $300 million a year dividend?

Again, I don't want to stress, I got to stress this. Not an immediate concern. Company's not saying anything. I'm just looking at the balance sheet. If you're long-term, you need to worry about a potential dividend cut here a few years down the road. So to recap for Denise in New Hampshire, yes, as a steady pharma company with a nice dividend yield, you'd think that a stock like Organon should work in this environment.

But you look into the company's fundamentals. This is just not a very attractive business. The company's earnings base has been shrinking since the spinoff from Merck four years ago, and they now regularly miss expectations when they report. Worse, the company has a lot of more China exposure than I'm comfortable with. And soon enough, you're going to have to worry about debt loads and maybe even a dividend cut.

Bottom line, I'm not in the habit of recommending businesses that are in decline, especially when they have ugly balance sheets. And by the way, I write in the blast zone of this trade war. There's just too much to go wrong with Oregon and that very little that could change the overall trajectory for the better. Denise in New Hampshire, I say live free. Don't buy. Don't buy. Richard in California. Richard. Don't look at me. What's happening?

Richard, this is Tony, Jim. Hey, what's shaking? What's going on? Oh, Tony. I got one question. Tony, doing great. Tony from Florence, New Jersey. And I got one question for you. Oh, my God, of course. Yeah. Yeah, and it ain't a high-flying stock. It's Pfizer. I'd just like to know, after they've taken a beating with the P.E., where it's at—

And the yield at 8%, is it a buy? Is it not a buy? I don't know. Okay, well, let me tell you something, Tony. Right now we have a government that is trying to figure out whether it's going to tax the heck out of drug companies, raise tariffs out of drug companies or not. I can't make a prediction anymore. It yields at 8%. Normally I'd say fine. But you know what? Let's say they decide, you know what, we need big tariffs on Pfizer. You'll say, wow, I'm buying that stock at 18 rather than 21. So I'm going to have to say, pay.

Now let's go to Richard in California. Richard! Hey, Jim. Hey, Richard. First, I wanted to tell you thanks for being a voice in the wilderness at this particular time. It's refreshing and really appreciated. Thank you. Thank you. And my wife would say, tiring. Like, are you really going to bed that early? Go ahead. How can I help?

Well, in this new environment, I believe my core holding is looking better than ever. This healthcare and AI company deals within the U.S. service sector, growing rapidly quarter over quarter with $750 million of dry powder on the balance sheet. It's needed for all healthcare services and for new AI drug discovery and developments. Maybe most important of all, it's only in breed. Jim, how do you feel about RadNet at this time?

Well, OK, so Ragnarok is being hurt because when interest rates go up, people are thinking rates are going up now. But unbelievably, it's a high multiple stock and those do not work in this environment. So I'm going to have to say let's take a pass on a company that was doing quite well. It is still doing well, but the stock is not going to do well. So I say no to Ragnarok. I'm sorry. Look, I've never been in the business of recommending a company that's in decline. I'm not going to start now, especially in an environment like this. I want to see strong balance sheets and more immunity from this trade war.

So we're going to say no to Organon. And Mad Money is just ahead with my exclusive podcast.

with Key Corp. Just ahead of bank earnings, I'm getting a look at a regional bank landscape from the company's top brass. They may have a really good consumer price index today, but could it be the last one for a while as Trump's tariffs threaten to stoke inflation? I'm sharing what I think could happen to a host of prices across our economy. And believe me, it's not a story that I really want to share, but I got to tell you. And of course, all your calls rapid fire tonight's edition of The Lightning Round. So stay with Kramer.

After a nice reprieve yesterday, we're right back in a world of hurt. We're desperately trying to figure out what kind of stocks can work in this environment. For example, what about the regional banks? These are fully domestic companies that don't have many direct tariff concerns as long as the trade war doesn't cause a full-blown recession. Something that's still very much a possibility, I fear.

Take Key Corp, parent of Key Bank. That's a Cleveland-based bank with an underappreciated capital markets business. This stock's fallen from $20 in late November to $13 and changed today, solely based, I think, on worries about the broader economy. Now, the company's currently in its quiet period ahead of its next earnings report, so we're not going to talk about the numbers. That comes out next week. But the bank's leadership was in the building today to ring the closing bell in celebration of their 200th

year anniversary. I think it would be a good chance to catch up, see what they're thinking. So let's check in with Chris Gorman. He's the chairman, president, and CEO of Key Corp. Mr. Gorman, welcome back to Van Money. Thank you so much, Jim. So great to be here. Well, first, congratulations. Not many companies have made it this far. What is Key's success

What is the formula for success to get to be around this long? Well, I think one of the things, and it's our current teammates and it's the teammates that came before us, is just really being resilient. And you think about all the different markets being able to take advantage when there's market opportunities.

and also positioning the bank through a range of conditions. And so I'm just so proud to have the privilege of leading this team as we celebrate our 200th birthday. A couple of interesting stats you might find. In 1825, there were only 24 states in the country and there were only 11 million people. So that kind of puts it in perspective

of how we've been you know along for the ride so to speak and a lot of banks in ohio have not made it this far there have been a series of legendary ohio banks that have failed but you've always kept your credits tight and you've always stuck to your knitting which is in many ways the local bank of where you are

Absolutely. And one of the things that enables, I think, banks to be really resilient, it starts with having a lot of liquidity and a lot of capital. And we fortunately are well positioned from that perspective. And also, you know, we're well positioned as we as we look at the rest of the year. So I think I think being resilient, taking the long view, really being client centric.

I think all those things have helped us. All right. So I want to bounce something off you. And you're the first one I heard you were ringing the bell. I said, what a good opportunity. Do you think that a year from now, in light of what's going on in Washington, we'll be thinking much more about companies that are American companies, not international companies based in America, and that the companies that are American will do better in the marketplace, maybe even get a higher price during its multiple, because they're not entangled with places that this current president wishes we weren't? Well,

Well, I don't think there's any question. If you think about COVID and you think about the disruptions in the supply chains, I think the notion of reshoring is real. And reshoring will probably be most people will have most of their supplier base in Mexico, the United States, and probably Canada. And so I think there's a huge opportunity. Most of our customers clearly are global customers, but many of them are thinking about reshoring and how they get their supply chains

And I do think a year from now, there'll be more activity in the United States. It does seem that both the president during his campaigns in Pennsylvania and Ohio and the vice president from where he's from uniquely understand the travails of people in the state of Ohio, the number of plants that have closed, the kind of destruction that happened to communities. Do you see any of that coming back?

I do. I think you'll see companies continue to flourish, but also the economy's changed a lot. So in spite of the fact that, yes, there's a lot fewer factories, but you think about medicine, you think about pharmaceuticals, you think about finance, a lot of the economies in Ohio have changed.

I'll tell you, though, we in Ohio have been very successful of getting people to actually move to Ohio, companies to move to Ohio. And so it's been... Give me some examples of what you're talking about. Well, so there's, for example, the Intel investment. Right. Huge investments by companies like Google and Amazon in central Ohio. And so actually a stat came out, Jim, that Ohio is the second best place to do business, which...

I think it's poor. And I give Governor DeWine and now Senator Husted, he was the lieutenant governor at the time, really a lot of credit for creating a great business environment in Ohio. OK, so also tell me what was why did Bank of Nova Scotia come down? Scotia Bank, a good bank. Yeah. And tie up with you.

Well, I think one of the things that Scott Thompson, who's the CEO of Bank of Nova Scotia, wanted to do is he wanted more exposure to the U.S. So Bank of Nova Scotia, as you might know, obviously a huge player in Canada and a significant player in Central and South America. And I think he felt that having a tie-up with somebody

uh... in the states particularly its middle market focus particularly that has capital markets capabilities particularly has a big wealth management business big payments business i think he thought it was a good fit work were just starting to scratch the surface and some of things we can work to work on together now what can uh... a president to add when it comes to regulation

Is there a way to make it so the regulators are not over-regulating? I know it's hard for a bank CEO to talk about this, but it does seem to me that there's got to be five different regulators of yours and that that's not necessarily good for the country. Well, I'm actually optimistic. Jim, I was in D.C. for two days last week. And as I made the rounds, I am optimistic that – and it isn't that anyone in our industry –

doesn't want regulation. Safety and soundness is critically important, particularly when you have markets like we've seen most recently. But I think to focus on safety and soundness instead of focusing on a bunch of other processes and procedures that don't necessarily pertain to safety and soundness, I think is great. And I'm actually optimistic.

Oh, good. Yeah. And I think it's going to be, and that will in turn give us the opportunity to lend more money and to help grow the economy. Oh, that's great. You know, it's gotten so convoluted. You're the first person that's told me, look, don't give up the ship. It's still possible that we have a light. We don't want poor regulation. We just want bankers to be able to lend and have good regulation from one or two regulators, not from five of them. Indeed. And so what we really need is balanced regulation. It's important for safety and soundness of the system.

And I think we can achieve that and also get some regulatory relief on things that, frankly, don't pertain to safety and soundness. All right. Well, look, it's great that you came in. You know I'm a supporter of your bank. I certainly like that yield, too. I don't understand what happened that all the banks came down because it doesn't make sense to me. And I like what you said to say about the new regime because we, too, need a we need banks that come back.

All right, we need them to collect. That's why I thank Chris Gorman. He's the chairman and CEO of Key Corp, K-E-Y. They report next week, and we'll be certain to catch you up on how they do. We have money back after the break. Thanks. It is time. It's time for the lightning round. Chris Bader, we're back for a long time. We'll start with... And then the lightning round is over. Are you ready? Let's get down to the lightning round. We'll start with...

Jonathan, Pennsylvania. Jonathan. Booyah, Jim. How's it going? I am doing well. How about you, Jonathan? Good. And quick shout out to my buddy, Brian Borderman from Doylestown. Doylestown. Love Doylestown.

Okay, so I'm looking to add a dividend stock to my portfolio in these crazy times. And this one has come down recently and is now yielding 8%. I'm calling about energy transfer. I'm going to give it two for that I like. I like energy transfer. And I like Pink, who is also from Doylestown. Yes. All right, let's go to Pat in Washington. Pat.

Hey, Jim. Thanks for taking my call out in the Pacific Northwest. I'm thinking of buying a stock called Snowflake. I like Snowflake. I like it. I think that, you know what, when I look at where that stock is now, they're hitting a lot of the tech stocks. That may be a good one to be able to be in right now. Yes, it's down a lot. It went down $6 today. I pulled the trigger. Let's go to Bob in New York. Bob.

Wow.

enterprise products, partners of stock to own now and going forward. Okay, now people are selling this thing because they have a lot of ethane business. They have a lot of certain natural gas liquids that are really stalled right here. I say don't worry about it. There's actually a fantastic choice. It's a happy chance to buy. And I do have some people that went out of the wall of shame. So maybe we just have to just we may have to pull that bad boy up again. Let's go to Curt in Florida. Curt! Jim, a big boy out to you.

Thank you for everything that you do. Quite welcome. Thank you. I'm calling about Applied Digital Corp. No, it's losing money, and I got enough problems with companies that are winning and making money. I can't go for the losers. I am sorry. Let's go to Betty in Tennessee. Betty.

Hi, Jam. Thanks a lot for all your hard work as a member of the Investment Club. We appreciate you. Thank you. Stay warm, man. We've been working. Oh, wow. Jeff and I have been crushing it.

Yes, a roller coaster ride indeed. Thank you. Thank you. Listen, with the president's interest in coal, I wondered what your opinion might be of Peabody Energy. Okay, I've got to be careful because I wrote a piece for the club about a month ago saying, you know what, I think he's going to bring coal back. We've got to look at Peabody. And it just didn't work because coal prices –

have collapsed worldwide. So even though I appreciate your thought process, mimics mine, we got to be careful. It's not going to make us money. I'm sorry. Oh, no. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Coming up, Kramer is talking the real cost of tariffs. Next.

We got a real good consumer price index reading today. Tame inflation, lots of categories showing actual declines in price. The best anything that touched energy, which is plummeting. This morning, David Faber and I interviewed a fellow by the name of Stephen Moran. He's the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. He was crying about the CPI. Fair enough. It was a good number.

But it might be one of the last good ones because things are about to go up price all across the board. Thanks to the tariffs that are already being erected, including the 145 percent tariff on China. It's essentially an embargo. President Trump's ecstatic that the tariffs are already taking in two billion dollars a day. He's thrilled that supposedly 75 countries are hoping to beg for something more reasonable than the 90 day pause when the 90 day pause comes to an end.

But what most people in this country don't seem to understand yet, even as Trump says it constantly, is that for years we've been allowing foreign companies to dump cheap goods on our market at low prices in order to crush their American competitors. And most people in this country loved it, with the notable exception of people who lost their jobs.

Now we're going to have to pay a price, a transition cost, as President Trump says. And then he predicts that we'll be in beautiful thing mode. But man, this is going to be a brutal transition. I don't think people realize what this truly means. They won't get it until we start seeing extreme price increases and even shortages for goods we used to get from China. Although we talk about cheap stuff like it's nothing, people are very sensitive to the cost of living. People hate inflation under Biden. They're not going to hate it any less if it ramps again under Trump.

When we put a tariff on drug companies, which I'm told is next, prices for drugs are not going to go down. They're going to go up. When we decide that we're going to tariff all sorts of auto parts, car prices are going to go up a lot.

When you go to Walmart, look aisle by aisle because you will not see those prices again. They are pre-tariff. Now, I have said that I am a fair trader, not a free trader. I want our companies to get a break to move their manufacturing back here. Perhaps a phased-in tariff overseas while the host country and its companies suffer the consequences. You want to hit China? Do it this way. Go to Apple. Say, listen, we're going to give you three years to get out of China. And that time, you've got to pay a small

but growing tariff until you're gone. That's how you do this without causing severe damage to the greatest company on Earth, and their departure will hurt China, too. And if you want to make Apple accountable for every penny, I don't care. Don't destroy their manufacturing base overnight. That's just...

That's silly. It's just giving a handout, a huge handout to Samsung. It's Korea first, not America first, because that's what the 140 percent tariff on China is going to do. 145 says, you know what? Samsung's the winner. And guess what? Apple's committed to building 500 billion dollars in projects here. How about Samsung? How did Samsung get the windfall? Has anyone thought this through?

In every case where a dominant American company makes goods in China, it's about to be toppled by an accidental winner who's ready to take our markets for themselves. Look, I know we'll be doing fine. Don't worry about it. Look, I'm going over all the oil market companies. And like everyone else, I'm seeing who has the staying power. I'm going to give you the names who's never moved overseas, never relied on those from overseas. They're the new winners in this environment. I love them.

I just want you to know that you'll be paying a lot more for most goods. And that money is going straight to foreign companies, companies that will charge higher prices because of the tariffs you put on them. Again, I am not some dogmatic free trader. No other country plays by the rules on trade. So we shouldn't either. But you need to do it in a way that doesn't do damage to our great American companies.

We just have to be more thoughtful about this or we'll end up doing more harm than good. Again, as someone who wants fair trade, not free trade, I am rooting for the president to pull this off, but not at the expense of great American companies that have done nothing wrong and are the best in the world. I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. I promise you I'll find it just for you right here on MadMoney. I'm Chuck Grammer. See you tomorrow.

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium.

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