The two most significant sell-offs discussed were the one-day crash of 1987, known as Black Monday, and the rolling crash of 2007-2009, which was the financial crisis. Black Monday saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 22% in a single session, while the financial crisis led to a prolonged bear market that took six years to recover.
The 1987 crash was considered a mechanical sell-off because it was caused by market dysfunction, particularly the overwhelming power of the futures market in Chicago over the stock market in New York. Portfolio insurance policies, which used dynamic hedging with futures, accelerated the decline as they failed to protect against losses and instead exacerbated the selling pressure.
The Federal Reserve, under Chairman Alan Greenspan, responded to the 1987 crash by providing liquidity to stabilize the market. Greenspan enlisted multiple Wall Street firms to help put in a bottom, leading to a remarkable two-day rally that took the Dow up more than 400 points from its lows.
The key difference was the nature of the sell-offs. The 1987 crash was a mechanical, short-term event unrelated to the economy, while the 2007-2009 financial crisis was a prolonged bear market driven by systemic economic issues, including the collapse of the housing market and major financial institutions.
The flash crash of 2010 was caused by a gigantic error in sell orders that overwhelmed the market, leading to a rapid decline in stock prices. The futures market again played a significant role, as buyers disappeared, fearing there was a substantial underlying issue, when in reality, it was a mechanical breakdown.
Jim Cramer advised investors to determine whether a sell-off is related to economic fundamentals or market mechanics. If it’s mechanical, it may present a buying opportunity. He also recommended using limit orders during crashes to avoid terrible prices and focusing on stocks with strong balance sheets and accidental high yields.
Portfolio insurance, which involved dynamic hedging using futures, was supposed to protect against losses by locking in gains. However, during the 1987 crash, it failed and instead accelerated the decline as the futures selling from these policies overwhelmed the stock market, causing massive losses for investors.
The COVID crash was straightforward, driven by the government shutting down the economy to combat the pandemic. In contrast, the flash crashes of 2010 and 2015 were mechanical breakdowns unrelated to economic fundamentals, causing confusion and panic among investors.
Circuit breakers were introduced post-1987 to cool declines by temporarily halting trading. However, they failed to work properly during the flash crashes of 2010 and 2015, creating a false sense of security. Fear and panic cannot be regulated out of the market, and mechanical breakdowns can still cause significant declines.
Jim Cramer recommends investing in solid companies with good balance sheets that pay dividends, which can be reinvested. He advises against chasing excessively high yields, as they may indicate underlying risks. During market declines, he suggests focusing on accidental high yielders—stocks with strong fundamentals whose prices have fallen, increasing their dividend yields.
Listen to Jim Cramer’s personal guide through the confusing jungle of Wall Street investing, navigating through opportunities and pitfalls with one goal in mind - to help you make money.