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cover of episode Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 12/27/24

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 12/27/24

2024/12/28
logo of podcast Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer

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Jim Cramer
通过结合基础分析、技术分析和风险管理,帮助投资者在华尔街投资并避免陷阱的知名投资专家和电视主持人。
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应对市场暴跌需要有应对策略,并根据暴跌类型采取相应措施。牛市容易参与,而大跌则更难应对,可能预示着熊市或更糟糕的情况。自他开始投资以来,只有1987年和2007-2009年的两次股市暴跌最为严重,即使是新冠疫情期间的暴跌也远不及这两次严重。1987年黑色星期一,道琼斯工业平均指数单日下跌超过22%。他亲历了1987年黑色星期一的股市暴跌,并回忆了当时的市场情况,以及股市在触底后反弹的过程。美联储主席格林斯潘的干预阻止了1987年股市暴跌的进一步下跌。2007-2009年的熊市与1987年的股市暴跌截然不同,其恢复时间长达六年。1987年、2010年和2015年的三次股市暴跌都与期货市场力量有关,期货市场对股票市场的影响力超过了公司基本面。1987年股市暴跌部分原因是“投资组合保险”策略的失败,该策略利用期货市场来对冲风险,但最终加剧了市场下跌。不要相信那些承诺低风险高回报的投资策略,这些都是骗局。1987年股市暴跌并非由于经济原因,而是市场机制失灵导致的。他在1987年股市暴跌前清仓了投资组合,避免了损失。建议为年轻的孙辈投资增长型基金,因为他们有足够的时间来承受风险。建议在股票业绩良好但市场下跌时,分批买入,而不是等待三天后再买入。他将提供关于股市暴跌的课程,帮助投资者应对市场下跌。1987年的股市暴跌提供了一个买入股票的机会,尽管这个机会需要一些时间才能显现。2010年的闪电崩盘与1987年的黑色星期一类似,都是由于市场机制失灵造成的,而非经济基本面。2015年8月的股市暴跌也与市场机制失灵有关,而非经济基本面。熔断机制并不能有效防止市场快速下跌,恐惧情绪无法通过立法或监管消除。区分由市场机制失灵导致的股市暴跌和由经济基本面导致的股市暴跌非常重要,前者可能提供买入机会。2007年开始的熊市与经济基本面密切相关,投资者应该关注经济状况来判断是否应该买入股票。判断股市暴跌是否与经济基本面相关的方法,以及美联储主席伯南克的声明如何扭转了2008年金融危机期间的市场颓势。判断股市触底的迹象,以及在2008年金融危机期间的投资建议。他建议投资那些财务状况良好且持续派发股息的优质公司。应对市场机制失灵导致的股市暴跌的方法,包括寻找“意外高收益”股票和使用限价单进行分批买入。他在2010年闪电崩盘期间通过使用限价单买入宝洁公司股票并获利。导致普通回调的各种因素,包括美联储的行动。美联储加息可能导致股市下跌的原因,以及如何应对。保证金交易导致的股市暴跌,以及如何识别和应对。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What were the two most significant market sell-offs Jim Cramer discussed?

The two most significant sell-offs discussed were the one-day crash of 1987, known as Black Monday, and the rolling crash of 2007-2009, which was the financial crisis. Black Monday saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 22% in a single session, while the financial crisis led to a prolonged bear market that took six years to recover.

Why was the 1987 crash considered a mechanical sell-off?

The 1987 crash was considered a mechanical sell-off because it was caused by market dysfunction, particularly the overwhelming power of the futures market in Chicago over the stock market in New York. Portfolio insurance policies, which used dynamic hedging with futures, accelerated the decline as they failed to protect against losses and instead exacerbated the selling pressure.

How did the Federal Reserve respond to the 1987 crash?

The Federal Reserve, under Chairman Alan Greenspan, responded to the 1987 crash by providing liquidity to stabilize the market. Greenspan enlisted multiple Wall Street firms to help put in a bottom, leading to a remarkable two-day rally that took the Dow up more than 400 points from its lows.

What was the key difference between the 1987 crash and the 2007-2009 financial crisis?

The key difference was the nature of the sell-offs. The 1987 crash was a mechanical, short-term event unrelated to the economy, while the 2007-2009 financial crisis was a prolonged bear market driven by systemic economic issues, including the collapse of the housing market and major financial institutions.

What caused the flash crash of 2010?

The flash crash of 2010 was caused by a gigantic error in sell orders that overwhelmed the market, leading to a rapid decline in stock prices. The futures market again played a significant role, as buyers disappeared, fearing there was a substantial underlying issue, when in reality, it was a mechanical breakdown.

What advice did Jim Cramer give for handling market sell-offs?

Jim Cramer advised investors to determine whether a sell-off is related to economic fundamentals or market mechanics. If it’s mechanical, it may present a buying opportunity. He also recommended using limit orders during crashes to avoid terrible prices and focusing on stocks with strong balance sheets and accidental high yields.

What role did portfolio insurance play in the 1987 crash?

Portfolio insurance, which involved dynamic hedging using futures, was supposed to protect against losses by locking in gains. However, during the 1987 crash, it failed and instead accelerated the decline as the futures selling from these policies overwhelmed the stock market, causing massive losses for investors.

How did the COVID crash differ from the flash crashes of 2010 and 2015?

The COVID crash was straightforward, driven by the government shutting down the economy to combat the pandemic. In contrast, the flash crashes of 2010 and 2015 were mechanical breakdowns unrelated to economic fundamentals, causing confusion and panic among investors.

What is the significance of circuit breakers in market crashes?

Circuit breakers were introduced post-1987 to cool declines by temporarily halting trading. However, they failed to work properly during the flash crashes of 2010 and 2015, creating a false sense of security. Fear and panic cannot be regulated out of the market, and mechanical breakdowns can still cause significant declines.

What is Jim Cramer's strategy for investing in high-yield dividend stocks?

Jim Cramer recommends investing in solid companies with good balance sheets that pay dividends, which can be reinvested. He advises against chasing excessively high yields, as they may indicate underlying risks. During market declines, he suggests focusing on accidental high yielders—stocks with strong fundamentals whose prices have fallen, increasing their dividend yields.

Shownotes Transcript

Listen to Jim Cramer’s personal guide through the confusing jungle of Wall Street investing, navigating through opportunities and pitfalls with one goal in mind - to help you make money.

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