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cover of episode Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 6/26/25

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 6/26/25

2025/6/26
logo of podcast Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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B
Brendan Foley
J
Jim Cramer
通过结合基础分析、技术分析和风险管理,帮助投资者在华尔街投资并避免陷阱的知名投资专家和电视主持人。
S
Sasan Ghadarzi
Topics
Jim Cramer: 我认为,如果你不喜欢现在的市场,那你也不会喜欢任何市场。过去十年,股市上涨主要由少数科技股带动,这种狭窄的上涨模式的可持续性一直备受质疑。但我认为,市场窄幅上涨可能会崩溃,但也可能扩大,推动市场持续上涨。1988年的经历让我意识到,过度担忧市场宽度可能会错失良机。从那次经历中学到,不应该让市场宽度影响我的做空决策,而应该寻找市场领导者扩大的机会。现在市场是牛市,空头因之前市场的狭窄性而受挫。现在金融、工业等板块表现良好,可以关注市场的其他领域。今天标普500涨幅前十的股票表明,1988年的经验教训仍然适用,市场已经从狭窄的科技股上涨转变为更广泛的行业上涨,那些警告市场过于狭窄的人现在面临损失。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the recent market rally, questioning its sustainability given its initial concentration in a few tech stocks. It draws parallels to past market trends and discusses the importance of market breadth in determining the longevity of a rally.
  • Market gains initially concentrated in tech stocks (FAANG, Magnificent Seven)
  • Concerns about sustainability of narrow rallies
  • Historical parallel from 1988 summer rally
  • Lesson: narrow rallies can broaden, leading to sustained growth
  • Importance of observing market breadth

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
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Get a new Dell AI PC starting at $749.99 at dell.com slash AI-PC. How those ahead stay ahead. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramerica. I'll be your main friends. I'm just trying to make real money. My job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach you. So call me at 1-800-743-CNBC. Tweet me, Jim Kramer. If you can bring yourself to hate this market,

then you'd hate any market that's how i feel after looking at some of today's top performers in an otherwise strong session where the dow gained 404 points sb climbed 0.8 closing a smidge below its high and the nasdaq jumped 0.97 all helped by a statement out of the white house that said the upcoming july 9 trade deadline wasn't critical good news because we have only seen one deal so far with the uk and we're getting more than a tad nervous about what would happen two weeks from now

For much of the tremendous run over the past decade, critics love to point out that most of our gains were coming from a small cadre of tech stocks. First it was FAANG, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google. Then it became the magnificent seven, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. Over and over again as the market roared higher, we were told that the rally was so narrow that it could not be sustainable.

You couldn't have a handful of companies that were worth trillions of dollars, then hundreds of stocks in the tens of billions, but nowhere near the valuation of these tech titans. Made no sense. They told us it was only a matter of time before these false idols would be smashed and your gains would go up in smoke. I get that view. I've heard it all my life. There was a time I even believed in it.

But if you're actually in the market every day from scratch, trying to notice what doesn't work, what can get you hurt, what can keep you out of tremendous gains, then you know there's another way this situation can play out. Sure, narrow rallies can collapse in on themselves. That can happen. Or, you know what they can also do? They can broaden out. And then the market keeps chugging higher and higher, chugging higher and higher without the sages who told me to get out.

See, I learned this lesson way back in 1988. I know, a long time ago. But we had one of those summers where only a handful of stocks led the market. I grew increasingly worried that I was riding the same stocks over and over again. Especially, yes, tech stocks. I was haunted by the notion that I was somehow whistling past the graveyard because a bull market with so few participants just had to collapse under its own weight. Sell, sell, sell!

I used to hang out with a lot of other portfolio managers, hedge fund hotshots, you know, the analysts. They all said the same thing. It's too narrow. You had to do some selling. You had to do a lot of selling. And ultimately, you had to get short.

And so, because I was young and not particularly discerning, I took their advice. I sold many of my longs and began to put my put options on stocks that were similar to my biggest winners, kind of as a hedge against the looming crash. Why not? We just had a crash year before. Why couldn't we have an owner? Heck, we were due, weren't we? But the crash never came.

Instead, a narrow summer rally developed into a wider fall upswing and then turned into a full bore multiple sector stampede. Fortunately, I was able to sell the put options, but many of the stocks I'd hedged went up and the stocks I'd shorted moved up, too. That canceled out my upside. I finally got in long enough, bought enough stocks in the early to late fall.

When I stopped talking to other money managers and decided to take my own counsel, well, let's say I made a lot of money, and I never again let the breadth of a market drive me into a short stance. Instead, it was the opposite for me there going forward. I was always on the lookout for the kind of widening of leadership that can crush the shorts like the widening we had today because I never wanted to get steamrolled by a runaway bull again.

Right now, we have a runaway bull for certain. In fact, it's a bull jailbreak, for heaven's sakes. And the bovines are running rampant, trampling the bears who were possessed with the narrow nature of what brought us this hide to begin with. They were staying short. They still are, probably. In turn...

Look at the other totems. Look what's working. How about stocks like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs, two stalwart financials both going crazy, or Caterpillar and Boeing doing quite well. The communications stock's plowing ahead. Sometimes, though, it helps just to look at what's working on a given day. So in recession, I called up the top 10 winners in the S&P 500 today just to see how broad the list might be.

It proved that what I learned in 1988 was a stock market life lesson. One of the few benefits of getting old, the one I'm giving to you now. At the top of that list, that sainted list today, Enphase Energy. Oh boy, a roughed up solar company. Oh, it's driving that? Possible congressional break that could preserve some solar tax credits. Then it was Freeport-McMoran. That's the copper miner. Copper's been a loser for years, but periodically the Chinese order tons of it. We buy it in bulk for the data centers.

I don't want to own Freeport, even as copper is up 25% per year. Freeport's a trading vehicle, and we don't do that around here. But it certainly demonstrates the diversity of this top 10 list. Next is Alborno. This is a chemical company that produces lithium. I honestly don't know where this one's coming from. We haven't suddenly seen a surge in electric vehicle sales that I've seen or any tax credits in the congressional bill. It's a broadening out mystery. Could be happening.

Then we've got McCormick, the spice company. This one's a shocker because most of the food stocks have been given up for left for dead. Turns out some parts of the food industry are getting it right. Their stocks are going up. We've got McCormick on tonight to find out more. Next, Coinbase. All right, the cryptocurrency stocks, they just never want to quit. And this is a group that matters. Even if older portfolio managers don't care, look the other way. I think this one's going higher to who knows where.

There was even a tech stock, and it isn't a magnificent one. We're talking about Arista Networks, which makes networking equipment. Long time Kramer fave. After that last quarter, some thought that Arista had lost a step. I didn't see it that way, but you had to wait a bit before it seemed to matter. There was another data center play. This time it's Supermicro, an important partner of NVIDIA. Now, I think that not Supermicro, I think Dell is the right investment in this space. But there's no denying it. This stock is doing quite well.

Then there's NRG. I mean, it's part of a small group of utilities known for their relatively clean power. And a lot of tech companies want clean energy for their data centers. NRG works directly with them and also partners with GE Vernova, a travel trust holding that makes the turbines for their power plants. We then had Insight. That's a biotech company.

It just got a new CEO, Bill Murray. He's an industry veteran known as a dealmaker. Makes sense. Murray was previously the CEO of Karuna Therapeutics, which he sold to Bristol Myers for a very nice premium. That better start working soon. Before that, he was chief commercial officer at Allergan. It's a company famous for its dealmaking. Finally, rounding things out, we have APA, the old Apache. Can run, but it can't hide. This is an oil and gas company, primarily natural gas. Apache's been a huge disappointment over the years. Maybe now it's APA. It won't be.

Well, anyway, maybe M&A's picking up. I had to wonder whether there's something going on here because otherwise it shouldn't be going up. I still prefer Kotara for natural gas. Still, no denying that Apache's cheap versus assets and no denying that it's not a tech company. Here's the bottom line. For years, we were warned that our rallies were too narrow.

Now we got a broad leadership group. Today was the solar, couple of minerals, crypto platform, two data center stocks, a utility, biotech, and a natural gas producer. That's what I call a real bullish rally. Everyone who warned you that the market was too narrow to go higher is now either closing out their short positions or getting their faces ripped off. Neither is a good thing. Why don't we go to Corey in Tennessee? Corey!

Hey there. Good evening, Jim. Good evening. First, I just want to say thank you for your stock insight. I'm a more recent viewer of your show than probably most of your callers, but I've been watching for several months now and really appreciate your take on things. Well, I am glad you joined us. I'm glad you joined the list of Cray-Maricans. We come out here every night hoping to have more population. You're terrific, terrific to add to it. How can I help you?

Absolutely love it. I'm trying to iron out my conviction in Google, at least in the short term. I currently hold a position. I'm a believer in the company long term. I think the company has a lot of great things going for it. YouTube, Waymo, Gemini, Cloud. I think they did start a little bit behind the competition when it comes to AI development and had to play catch up a little bit. But I

I think they've now not only caught up, but are, in my opinion, poised to maybe be considered the leader among the competition. So I'm a believer long-term. In the short term, though, I do work...

Well, look, I do not think it's the leader. And I do think that it's going to be challenged because it has to balance the basically it's old Google business with a Gemini. And I don't think that's going to work out. But also, I was concerned about the Justice Department suit when I sold the stock. That was a mistake because I think that the all that would ever happen is they'd break it up and then you would get YouTube. You would get Waymo and you get search. So I don't like it.

but I understand the long side thesis. Today was a perfect example of a very broad market rally. Anyone who said the market was too narrow to go higher, they've got egg on their face if they still have a face. On Mad Money tonight, I'm sitting down with the CEO of McCormick. We'll put some spice on that face after earnings to see if the company could add some spice to your portfolio. And Deere's been running terribly. What the heck is that about?

I'm going to talk to the CEO. First, Intuit just unveiled a virtual dream team and A1, actually AI, agents built to boost your portfolio. I am sitting down with the CEO fresh off this announcement, and you're going to want to hear about it. So stay with Kramer. ♪

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Heather is a nurse practitioner from UnitedHealthcare. We meet patients wherever they live. During a house call, she found Jack had an issue. Jack's blood pressure was dangerously high. It was 217 over 110. So they got Jack to the hospital and got him the help he needed. He had had a stent placed in his heart, preventing a massive heart attack.

If it wasn't for my guardian angel, I wouldn't be here. Hear more stories like Jack's at UnitedHealthcare.com. Benefits, features, and or devices vary by plant area limitation and exclusions apply.

Tonight, after the close, we got some big news from Intuit, the consumer and small, medium-sized business software company behind TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and MailChimp, with the stock that's been on fire since it reported a blowout quarter late last month. Now, though, Intuit has announced a transformative new suite of artificial intelligence agents designed to act as a kind of virtual team for businesses, helping them save time, improve their decision-making, and generally do more for their clients. But what does that mean for the company, and maybe even more importantly for you and I, the stock?

Earlier, we got to sit down with Sasan Ghadarzi. He is the CEO of Intuit. Take a look. Sasan, I think I've seen the future. I have looked at this virtual AI product that you have. And I think if I were running a business, and not a small business, but a small or medium or even a large business, this is a game changer. And I have seen a lot of stuff you've done, but I think this is the most important thing you've done.

Well, first of all, it's great to be here. Jim, this is the biggest innovation we have ever launched and it's been five years in the works. And in essence, it's a virtual team of AI agents and AI enabled human experts that will do everything for our customers from lead to cash. And it's a big day and I'm excited about how it will power and fuel the benefits and growth for customers. How many people is this replacing if you had your own company?

And how many different interactions are there with actual AI using this? Well, let me first start with like, what does it do? And then I'll answer your question. In essence, the platform helps you manage from lead to cash. So we are launching a customer agent, a payments agent, an accounting agent, and a finance agent, just to name a few. So what do they do? In essence...

The customer agent helps the customer manage leads in Gmail, manage it through their pipeline, send an estimate and an invoice, give them our payments agent will help maximize their cash flow, help them get paid, give them access to line of credit. And all of these things, Jim, happen in a business feed. So we share what the actions are, the recommendations are with customers, and we do all of the work for them. And here's the most incredible part.

we have accounting, AI accounting agents that will also do all of the work for our customers. It will engage with our accountants, it will engage with the AI agent, it will ask the customer questions and automagically do the work for our customers all through a business feed. And really the thing I hear from customers is we've been, you know, we have several hundred thousand customers that have been on the platform before we go GA. And the biggest thing I hear from customers is,

i don't have to use a bunch of apps you're saving me time i know how my business is doing and by the way you're consolidating my spends i'm spending less and it's really revolutionary to answer your question around number of people it depends on the business if the business is growing they can deploy their headcount to the biggest growth areas rather than hiring more because in essence customers have been spending two three days a week trying to manage all

all of their business now we do a lot of it for them so they can deploy their assets which is exciting reason i'm focused on this and we got to talk about the businesses businesses on fire it's because many people claim they have ai i'm not kidding they come in the ai ai this is the first time i've seen actual tangible evidence of using ai to make a lot more money and save a lot of money to save time now that is also that we got to talk about how turbo tax live

47% revenue growth. I was looking for 20. I was at the high end. That too, powered by AM.

Yeah, well, first of all, we had breakthrough adoption this year. As you can imagine, the majority of folks, whether it's a consumer or business, will use a pro, will use a tax accountant to do their taxes for them. And we hire those very folks, but they sit on our AI platform. And so what we were able to do this year is have absolute breakthrough adoption. And as you said, our customers on TurboTax Live, which is connecting you to an expert, it grew 24%. Revenue grew 47%. And I just think

the the what's possible is ahead of us and it's all because of data and ai one of the moments that i love best in your conference call you talked about companies having people they're over digitized meaning go ahead you say because i thought it was brilliant analysis so i spend 30 40 of my time with customers both businesses and our large accounting partners and the biggest thing that i hear from them is they're over digitized what that means is they're actually using like 10 15 apps to run their business from managing leads all the way to cash

And the biggest surprise that I wasn't hearing three years ago, but today I hear is I'm spending more money. All of my data is trapped across all of these apps. So I spend more time trying to figure out what's going on in my business and I'm getting less benefit. And I think that's sort of where you started this discussion. That's the power of what we've launched, which is it's a one-stop shop.

a virtual team of AI agents and AI-enabled human experts that will do all of the work for you so you can consolidate your spend and feel your growth. Now, I would think that this kind of pampering of a business is what I would get if I spent millions of dollars on enterprise resource planning, which most small practitioners are never going to get. But you're giving it to them. Yeah. I mean, we win based on everything I hear from customers is based on experience.

price and total cost of ownership. I mean, the reality is with just depending on the size of your business, you can consolidate all of your spend and from lead to cash, run your entire business in one place and little things. You and I were just talking about this before we started, like

You can have a handwritten note or a picture of a receipt. You take a picture and our platform will create an estimate, an invoice. It will do the accounting for you. And imagine the amount of time that you save by very basic things like uploading files, us being able to read your Gmail and create estimates for you.

it's revolutionary and by the way it's hard we've been at this for five years because the accuracy of what we do matters a lot and it's really amazing to have our ai agents and ai enabled human experts work in harmony to deliver the benefits and the experience i'm sure there's still people out there who say well wait a second there there's no way an accountant would ever recommend this they would want that business isn't it the opposite you flipped the whole paradigm

well our accountants as we've been walking them through the platform some of them have been part of our process of beta and alpha what the thing they've shared with with us is i can actually now do advisory work rather than doing a bunch of manual work cleaning the books taking all of this files and receipts and figuring out how to put in the platform you're doing it for us and i can actually advise the business uh

So it's good for them, it's good for the business, and it's great for Intuit. I would have to believe also that one of the things that you and I both know trips up most businesses, the government, and it's because you don't comply. This by itself would give you a lot of ability to be able to comply with all the state and Fed tax organizations and all the other regulatory organizations because you've got the documents right in front of you. That's right, because the business has to do their taxes. There's also payroll tax. There's sale tax. And when you have...

the data investments that we've made, all the machine learning and gen AI investments that we've made, we do a lot of that automation. And if we detect an anomaly or an error, this is where our AI agents take over and will automagically engage with a human expert to get it right for the customer, which means less penalties. - It means, Credit Karma is doing incredibly well.

hey you just gotta tell us people that people just are people i mean i got people who check every day now i don't know if they should do that but the numbers are pretty great well first of all you know we bought credit karma to integrate it with turbo tax so we have one platform in one place that you can manage you know from credit building to wealth building and all of the innovation the team is driving is what's driving the growth well look i'm sorry you know some people say what you're a homer for this

Look, I used your stuff. I have a lot of small businesses. We would be helpless without what you do. But more importantly, we would be spending way too much money without you. And now with the AI, I mean, it is cool. We're excited about the future. Congratulations. Thanks. Dustin Godarzy, CEO of Intuit. Coming up, this agriculture play has been running fast as a deer. But can the stock continue to keep the pace? Kramer plows for answers next.

Say you've always wanted to take a spontaneous trip to the Caribbean. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the most out of your money so you can get out and live a little. Isn't that why we work so hard? To have some fun with our money. Like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one.

So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 19 million customers today at Empower.com. Not an Empower client, paid or sponsored.

Heather is a nurse practitioner from UnitedHealthcare. We meet patients wherever they live. During a house call, she found Jack had an issue. Jack's blood pressure was dangerously high. It was 217 over 110. So they got Jack to the hospital and got him the help he needed. He had had a stent placed in his heart, preventing a massive heart attack.

If it wasn't for my guardian angel, I wouldn't be here. Hear more stories like Jack's at UnitedHealthcare.com. Benefits, features, and or devices vary by plant area limitation and exclusion supply.

The past 12 months have been incredibly chaotic, but one thing has remained constant. Deere and company keeps chugging higher and higher. Much like Bambi when he grows up, this Deere cannot be stopped. Over the past year, the stock's rallyed more than 35%, trouncing the 12% gain in the S&P 500. Over the same period, it's up over 20% so far for 2025.

This marks a huge change of pace for the farm equipment maker. Deere caught fire in 2020, but then traded sideways from early 2021 all the way through late 2024. In May of last year, I told you that Deere was finally taking control of its own destiny, even if that might take some time to play out. And in retrospect, that was a good call. So now that this stock's become a semi-permanent resident on the new high list, can it keep climbing?

Funny thing about Deere. While the stocks roared over the past 12 months, the company hasn't been putting particularly good numbers. In fact, Deere's reported seven straight quarters of year-over-year revenue declines, six straight quarters of earnings shrinkage. And we're not just talking about slight declines here. This is full-on George Costanza-style shrinkage.

When Deere reported in February, their sales were down 35%. Their earnings had almost been cut in half versus the year before. Oh, my God. But even though the numbers have been hideous in absolute terms, Deere's results have consistently come in better than expected. How is it possible? Simple. This company is hostage to the agriculture market, which means their business rise and falls based on factors that they've got.

Let's say no control over. They sell farm equipment, which means they're hostage to crop prices. Most farmers can't buy these big ticket items without financing, which means they're hostage to interest rates, too. Deere gets more than 40% of its sales from overseas, makes them hostage to currency fluctuations. A lot of hostages. So while the farm equipment industry has struggled, Deere keeps beating the estimates because this company generally does a great job of controlling what it can control, managing their costs well.

and calibrating their production and inventory levels to match the market environment. More important, the stock's been roaring because crop prices, interest rates, and the dollar have finally started going in the right direction, at least from the US perspective. When you look at some of the top agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, what you see is that after a moldier bear market, prices have bottomed at some point last year. That hasn't necessarily translated into big rallies, thanks in part to the tariff turmoil, but they're no longer going relentlessly lower.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar has weakened dramatically. This is really important versus foreign currencies. Dollar index is down 12 percent from its January highs, which makes Deere's merchandise cheaper when they try to sell it overseas. Big change there. As for interest rates, OK, they remain stubbornly high, which hurts Deere just like it's hurt the homebuilders, the automakers and every other company whose customers need financing. That means they need credit.

But obviously something big changed last fall when the Fed became our friend. Even though we only got a few rate cuts before they stopped, the general consensus is that the Fed's on track to put through more rate cuts this year. It might not happen the next meeting. I don't think it will, but it's coming. And if rates are headed lower, that's phenomenal for Deere's business. Plus, when these guys reported their most recent quarter in May, the numbers were quite a bit better, relatively speaking, of course.

Deere's earnings were down 22% year-over-year, which looks terrible in a vacuum. But in the previous quarter, their earnings were down 49%, and the latest numbers were actually much better than expected. Their sales were down 18%, much better than the 35% decline in the previous quarter, and substantially stronger than what the analysts were expecting. Remember,

It has to do with analyst expectations, not the actual number. The actual number matters, but it's the expectations being beaten that really matters when it comes to the stock market. In other words, there's a feeling that your financial results are troughing.

They were finally getting past the worst point. On their latest conference call in May, management was still pretty guarded about their outlook. They always are guarded, this company. It's very conservative. The rest of the year, they were worried about the tariff situation. Pretty reasonable. However, they also offered some reasons for optimism, citing strong demand from U.S. farmers, early signs of pickup in South America, especially Brazil, which is a big market for deer, and even green shoots in Europe.

The company's order books are starting to look better, and it makes sense that the agricultural equipment business would bottom not too long after crop prices bottom. Long story short, over the past 10 months, New Year's biggest headwinds have started turning into tailwinds, all while management has done an excellent job of controlling the things that are within its power. Plus, there are all long-term reasons to

to like Deere that never really went away. This company is still the king of farm equipment with best-in-class technology. They're using data analytics and even autonomous driving to make farms more efficient. They're pioneering that. This is something that the analysts at Mellius Research pointed out earlier this month when they updated Deere from hold to buy, raising the price target on the stock to $750. That's a bold call. The stock is currently trading at $508. Mellius stated right at the top of their upgrade, and I really liked it, quote,

The timeline to cyclical recovery and to the market's appreciation for Deere's extraordinary position is still uncertain, end quote. But they argue that the company's, quote, leading position in ag tech will deliver transformational value to farmers and that the company will share in a meaningful part of that upside, end quote. In particular, these analysts like how Deere's advanced technologies come with recurring revenue because the high end equipment includes so much software.

As Melia Sandals put it, quote, we see Gears tech opportunities as differentiated with the best competitive moat we have seen, and we don't think tech investors are here yet, end quote, before explaining that the company's tech leadership will allow its stock to keep trading at a premium price-to-earnings multiple.

Good. I couldn't agree more. That's why I'm totally comfortable with Deere now selling for 27 times earnings. That's somewhat higher for a machinery company, considerably higher than the S&P 500's PE multiple. But I think you can justify it given the tech angle. Plus, Deere is a cyclical stock, and the cyclicals always seem expensive near the bottom. It looks pricey because the earnings are at a very low level. But if crop prices can bounce and interest rates come down, Deere will be able to report much better numbers. So here's the bottom line.

After years of trading sideways, this stock's finally had a major breakout over the past 10-odd months, even though Deere's end markets are still in pretty rough shape. But the stock's working because the company always had great execution and the agricultural equipment business is turning around. That's why I think its rally so far can be justified and why I think it will continue to run. Let's take some calls. Let's start with Lewis in Florida. Lewis.

Yeah, Jim, I've been watching your show for 20 years. Thank you. Well, thank you for watching for two decades. I'll take that. I'm retired. I don't need the money right now. But I'm a little concerned about my nice gains that I have in my energy positions. So my question is, do I hold or trim Enterprise Chevron Exxon triple?

OK, I'll tell you how I feel about the oil business. I don't like it, but I do like the dividends because the dividends I'm willing to to bless them. But if they didn't have good dividends, believe me, I wouldn't come near the group because I think that the group is just not in good shape. Let's go to Eton in Pennsylvania. Eton. Hi, I have a question about a stock that I bought at a high and then been a bit downhill ever since Target.

Right. Now, remember, we don't care on this in this show. We don't care where a stock is going. We care about we don't care where it's come from. We care where it's going. And I've got to tell you, this stock, obviously, everybody's got almost every single person in the country has a loss in this thing right now. So that doesn't matter. It yields four point six.

I happen to think that it's been able to be, ever since it got into the high fours when it came to the yield, it stopped going down. I think it will continue to be the case because they do have an excellent balance sheet. So I'm going to say you can hold it. I'm not going to tell you to buy it. Let's go to Milton in Indiana. Milton.

Hey, Kramer. Thanks for taking my call. UnitedHealthcare. I bought some three weeks ago, half of what I was going to buy, like you suggest.

Is it time to buy the other half or wait? Well, I've got to tell you, there's going to be what I think is a clearing event on July 29th where they're going to talk about it. And I think that you might have to pay up 50 points if it turns out it's a good event. But I'm not going to tell you to buy more right now. Why? Because they had irregularities and irregularities mean to me that maybe it's more of a dice roll than you think. I happen to think, by the way, that Steve Hemsley, who's the CEO, I think the world of him, that makes me inclined to say keep the stock.

But I can't tell you to pound the table. I can't pound the table because in the end, UnitedHealth did some things that were wrong. And when you do something that is wrong, I do not put my name on your stock.

I think things are finally looking up for Deere. And with the ag business turning around, I think Deere can keep winning. Watch where I made money at. I included my exclusive with McCormick, one of today's big winners. How has the spice and flavor company been backed into a changing consumer and tariff landscape? I'm going to talk to the CEO. Ben, how do you take a look at the stock of Nvidia lately? You could have made a lot of money if you'd just done this one thing. And I'm going to tell you what it is. Of course, calls, light and loud. So much ahead. Stay with Kramer.

This morning, we got a tremendous quarter from McCormick, the number one maker of spices and seasonings. It took a lot of people by surprise. Wall Street was worried that McCormick would be hampered by the volatile consumer environment, especially with all that tariff turmoil. But these guys reported a strong quarter with inline revenue, forced earnings beat off a 65 cent basis, even though management only reaffirmed their four year forecast with the quarter. The stock still shot up higher.

Because they explained how they were mitigating the cost of the tariffs for the second half. I loved it. So did you miss this one or could their stock have more room to run? Let's check in with Brendan Foley. He's the chairman, president and CEO of McCormick. Brendan, great to see you on Mad Money again. Good to see you, Jim. Thank you for having me. You started out by saying we are a growth oriented company. At one point I would have said, what does that mean? But in your industry, this is just stellar.

You know, Jim, we are a growth-oriented company. And think about us as just completely focused on flavor. I mean, the best way to describe McCormick is while others are competing for calories, we flavor them.

You know, and we're driving some really strong volume-led growth across our business, and we're investing in our brands. You know, we're driving more brand marketing, more innovation, more distribution. We had a good quarter, another good quarter, really driven a lot by consumer volume growth across our business. No, it's incredible. People just say, well, wait a second, GOP-1s are going to be the death of you, the new younger consumer who doesn't want to have their body wrecked.

to buy additives, that'll be the death of food, and people are eating more at home. Well, those are all yours. They go to your strong points. You know, we're focused on meeting the consumer where they are right now, and that's always been driving us. But when we look at our consumer portfolio, we think we're really, you know,

positioned well for the future, both the short term and the long term, because this product portfolio really does help you eat healthier at home. But also our flavor solutions business benefits from this. It's a growth opportunity for us. Right. Now, we do know that when we look at all these, that the amount, the number of calories your stuff produces is almost nil. It probably takes more, probably takes more to eat your stuff than it is the calories they produce. You know,

Products like French's Mustard or Frank's Red Hot, there's not a lot of extra stuff in there. And they're really just quite high-integrity products when you look at the ingredient statement. But you did point out in your conference call that the CPG, the center part of the store, they're still not doing well, and they are some of your customers.

You know, we're still seeing a lot of growth across the store. The great part about McCormick is we're end-to-end flavor, and so we play in so many different areas when you think about the world of flavor, whether it's the consumer business. You know, we're flavoring food and beverage brands across the world, but we're also in the food service industry, too, and we still find growth. You know, we're working with a lot of emerging brands right now that are fast-growing, and they're bringing a lot of those health benefits to the consumer shelf, and so we're helping them flavor their products.

Everything needs flavor, Jim. And so this is why a growth opportunity for us. We're also seeing it in food service. Well, I also saw APAC at Asia Pacific. Nice little turn. We are. You know, our business in China is starting to show some gradual growth. That's great. I remember when it hurt you. I mean, I would speak to your predecessor and be like, oh, no, China. But it's showing growth. It's always a long-term game. Right. You know, when we look at it. We're also seeing some nice growth in our QSR business there, too. And QuickServe. Yeah.

Well, that's good because that was something we were concerned about, too. I mean, but you have such a balanced portfolio. I always felt that not one of these can take you down. No one. It hasn't happened. And it just kind of goes like this. Yeah, it is a portfolio that allows us to take advantage of all the different opportunities, no matter whether people are eating at home or away from home. We have an opportunity to still find growth across the world in flavor.

Well, now you're a person who knows growth, you know taste, you know what people are looking for. But whoever thought that with your 17,000 unique items that you have to get from 90 countries, I mean, I can't, it must take you weeks just to calculate the tariffs.

Our teams did a lot of work around this. You know, we've done a nice job mitigating the tariff impact as we think about through the, you know, 2025. One thing about our business that's important to understand, when you think about all the products that we're selling in the United States, you know, over 90% of them are made in the United States. But,

A great majority of those ingredients we have to source outside the United States because we can't grow them here overall. So this is a big area. Agricultural impact is probably what we're focused on when you're looking at tariff impact. Yeah, no, I mean, it seemed like that when I looked at some of the things that you have to do with agriculture, I mean, it's not like you can necessarily switch from one country to another, can you? Or does it work like that? I mean, get it in Brazil instead of get it in Argentina, that kind of thing? You look at a product like black pepper.

We can source that from many different countries. And so it might be, you know, in Brazil, it might be in Indonesia or Vietnam. But we're going to source that from many different markets around the world. Now, let's talk about what's going on with your others in your industry. They're being called in by HHS, by Bobby Kennedy Jr. saying, listen, got to get rid of these colors. But the idea that maybe, you know, Fruit Loops is bringing people to making people eat candy, sugared stuff.

I don't see your portfolio having a problem with the HHS and the things that Bobby Kennedy Jr. is talking about. Our portfolio is really allowing and enabling consumers to flavor their meals at home. If you think about our consumer portfolio, and you can see some of the products that we have here. These are some of our new items that we've got. It could be heat-flavored like

Thai style chili pepper or hatch chili chili pepper. Those are areas where we can continue to drive innovation for the consumer and allows us to really meet the needs of where they are right now. And so we see a lot of opportunity in this environment. And how many different kinds of hot sauce have you been coming up with?

Well, Cholula, we've been expanding this. Yeah, I know. I see them because you used to be free at my Mexican restaurant. Now there's like a dozen of them. Well, these are our cremosas. And those are coming out now this summer. We launched this one last year, which is extra hot. This is really by consumer demand. We learned this online, you know, just through all the commentary. And they said, you know what? I like Cholula. I'd like it a little bit hotter. So we came out with extra hot.

You know, these are the opportunities that we see across our portfolio. But you're right. They're fundamentally pretty healthy. It's a great way to flavor. And this is, you know, where we see a lot of opportunity across our consumer portfolio that will drive growth for us. Hey, speaking of online, the minis that you introduced are still going crazy online. It's a great way to test new flavors. You know, one of your, I know one of your favorite products is French's mustard. You know, dill pickle is a big trend in the last year. We launched a mini size of dill pickle just to get people to try it. It's a hot new item right

No, you're pitting against me and my pickles this year. Of course, I use your spices. One last thing. I was concerned. You want to have a different countertop-worthy new package? You're not going to change it too much, are you? You know, our gourmet line is one of our premieres. This is the best material we can find around the world. And so here's an example, you know, with just a countertop-worthy package.

I see. You know, you've got a gold cap. It's kind of sealed right there. And these are the types of products that consumers are looking for on their countertop. And so we're relaunching our Gourmet line this year. And so it's a great opportunity, and we're going to grow new dishes. So in other words, you're not changing me. I'll know. I've got my typical that my mom had and my grandma had, right? This is the premium end of our line, which is just the best that we can source. Well, I've got to tell you, I knew when you came in that you would have –

A very growth-oriented, exciting view of things. And, boy, whoever thought how much we need those. All right. That's Brendan Pulley, Chairman and CEO of McCormick. Yes, 52-week high, deservingly so. Look at these. It's what you have. It's what you own. Everybody's back in. Coming up, Kramer takes your calls. And the sky's the limit. It's a fast-fire lightning round. Next. Next.

It is time. It's time for the lightning round. And then the lightning round is over. Are you ready, Ski Daddy? It's time for the lightning round. We're going to start with Ned in Ohio. Ned. Good afternoon, Professor Kramer. How are you, sir? I am good. Thank you for calling, Ned. How can I help?

Well, I wanted to talk to you about Marathon Petroleum Company. It's the largest petroleum refining, marketing and transportation company in the U.S. Yes, and it's a good one. I think you want to own that stock. I like it very, very much. And I just think that it's one of the few in that group that I actually want to own. Let's go to Robert in Connecticut. Robert. Hey, great big boy out to you, Jim, from the Nutmeg State.

Jim, I want to get your take on the only autonomous trucking company with pilotless vehicles on the road as we speak.

I know the company, and here's what I'm going to say about it. There'll be another time in this show where I said, listen, that's too speculative. But I have seen these speculative stocks go up and up, and I'm not going to make you sell Aurora Innovation when a headline would cause that stock to double. Let's go to Braden in Florida. Braden. Braden, you're up. Booyah, Jim. How's it going? I'm doing well. How about you, Braden?

I'm doing great today. Listen, I'm a young stock picker on the TikTok, and I'm a big fan of QXO. I love Brad Jacobs. I'm a little concerned the company's been a bit over its keys with debt. I think true value is around $12. Is this a good time to buy, or should I hold off? I am going with Brad Jacobs. He's the Houdini of people. He's a billion billion. How to make a billion makes a billion when he walks down the street. He makes a billion when he looks out the window. I want to be in his billionaire train. Let's go to Gary in Alabama. Gary.

Hey, Jim. I first want to say that I'm a new club member. I finally joined yesterday. Excellent. I watched your monthly meeting, and it was fantastic. I think it's already paid for itself, and I want to encourage everyone out there to please join the club. You won't regret that. That is fabulous. I did not tell. I don't know Gary from Alabama. I don't.

And I greatly appreciate that, Gary. Thank you. Well, you're welcome. I'm so glad I did. Anyway, I've made money on this stock a couple of times. It's a Josh Brown favorite. I actually bought it yesterday, and then I thought, what the heck did I do that for without talking to you?

My stock is toast. Oh, I know that Josh likes that. Now, I like toast, too, because I was in the restaurant business. I thought it was a commodity. It's proprietary. They're taking out the whole world by storm. You got a good one there. And thank you for joining the club. And that led them, including, up the lightning round. The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

Coming up, there's been plenty of noise around Nvidia, but with shares hitting new highs, Kramer reveals the intelligence driving the rally and why it's anything but artificial. Next. It seems so easy now if you wanted to make money in Nvidia. All you had to do was hold the stock and you did great. There was no sweat to it at all. Right back at action, right back to the all-time high list. Except that's just not true.

Holding Nvidia for most of the year was one of the most grueling interludes I've ever seen. Just think of what happened since the stock last hit new highs back in January. First, the company had to deal with President Biden's last-minute AI diffusion rules, which restricted where Nvidia could sell its best chips. The Biden administration made a list of 18 friendly countries that were free of restrictions, but tons of close allies didn't make the list, including many EU countries, as well as Mexico, even Israel. It was totally absurd, but Nvidia had to comply.

Then we learned that there was this Chinese athlete called Deepsea. They come up with a new way to train AI models for a fraction of what the hyperscalers are spending. Deepsea never actually broke out their hardware costs, but everyone assumed these revelations were deadly for NVIDIA. And of course, like so many other companies with lots of international exposure, NVIDIA got crushed on Liberation Day with the tariff terror sending the stock down to the mid 80s.

Then the Trump administration told him that they couldn't sell even their older AI chips to China, something even Biden had allowed. The company had to take a $4.5 billion charge on inventory it had made for China that couldn't be repurposed to sell anywhere else. It was then effectively shut out of what CEO Jensen Wang said was a $50 billion market.

In return, the AI diffusion rules were at least bagged in May, allowing many more countries to buy Nvidia's best chips. You could argue it was kind of a nice trade-off, but the Chinese market shut down much larger.

And throughout this whole period, we were told endlessly that Nvidia was charging too much for its merchandise and that the customers were rebelling. We heard that Amazon was going to go against them with its own chips multiple times on that one, that the other hyperscalers weren't happy with the prices they had to pay and were balking at its prices, that it was absurd for Nvidia to have the same valuation as a software titan like Microsoft or a hardware titan like Apple.

And hey, what would happen a couple of years down the road when the competition finally caught up to these guys? Wasn't that the deep-seeked message? Weren't these customers spending way too much on these chips with not enough to show for it? Oh, and wasn't the stock way too expensive? Wasn't that why Jensen Wong was selling tens of millions of dollars worth of stock? It was such a nonstop torrent of negativity. Oh, my.

Now we look back and we realize that while China mattered, there was plenty of other business to go around. While Amazon made some chips for itself, they weren't nearly as powerful as Nvidia's. The deep-seek revelations, I'm calling them bogus. And it turns out that the AI spending was much more justified because these companies need these chips for robotics, self-driving cars, digital twins, accurate and generative AI platforms. If they need it for the future, or there would be no future.

Plus, when Nvidia bought them in April, it was selling for just 20 times its earnings, making it cheaper than the average stock in the S&P 500. In reality, even though the stock fell off a cliff in January, nothing had changed at the company.

NVIDIA was unchallenged and remains integral to the new industrial revolution. It's behind the new industrial revolution. It didn't just matter that it was just a semiconductor company any more than Microsoft was just a software company or Apple was just a cell phone company, which really isn't even true. All these winners, including NVIDIA, are much more than what they're typecast as. NVIDIA really isn't a semiconductor company. It's a platform of chips with tons of software that makes it truly unassailable, run by arguably the greatest visionary on Earth.

but unless you had that conviction you never would have made it this through this gauntlet negativity it's the only reason we were able to stick with nvidia for the chapel trust despite almost three months of hideous losses let me leave you with one last thought this call it may seem like a one-of-a-kind steeplechase for this amazing company but these barriers to ownership have been put up again and again and again through the many years that it took for nvidia to become the biggest stock ever

It's caused millions of people to jump out of it rather than into it and stay with it, like so many CNBC investing club members have told me that they were able to do. Congratulations to those few of you who made it through. Congratulations to CEO Jensen Wong, who never lost his heart, never lost his temper, and never lost his integrity. He and his team just keep their heads down and push the plow for you, the intrepid shareholder. Jensen, thank you. No one has ever done it better.

Like I said, there's always a bull market somewhere. I promise you I'll find it just for you or your own man, buddy. I'm Jim Kramer. See you tomorrow. All opinions expressed by Jim Kramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium.

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash madmoneydisclaimer.

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