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How those ahead stay ahead.
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Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramer. I'm just trying to make a little extra money. My job, not just to entertain, but to educate, to teach you how this business works. So call me, 1-800-743-CNBC, or tweet me at Jim Kramer.
The next time you get too down about the stock market, I want you to remember this wonderful quarter where we got knocked down the campus after Liberation Day, only to eventually rally all the way back and then some. I keep hearing the word resilient. I say, how about stellar?
It was never easy, including today, when the S&P and the Nasdaq hit record levels, then reversed after President Trump broke off his trade talks with Canada because it imposed a digital services tax, made it retroactive to 2022. But then the market eventually shrugged off the Canadian spat, with the Dow gaining 422 points and both the S&P and the Nasdaq climbing 0.52%. The latter two closing at record highs.
None out of 11 sectors were up today. This kind of stuff, so rare for so many years, has become commonplace in the last part of this quarter. Still, I think this market will remain strong, even in the face of a jarring story like the Canadian tariffs. The individual investor has learned that the best way to make money is to stand pat, stay in, maybe even add money into the declines, which has been the best strategy of all. While institutions flitted in and out and in and out and in and out,
There's data that shows that the individual investor stayed in and even bought more on weakness. Yes, they bought the dip. It turned out to be right. That's pretty incredible. Incredible. To stick with stocks during this period, you had to hold on through Liberation Day insanity, the endless calls by the president to get Fed Chief Jay Powell to step down.
Because Trump wants immediate rate cuts, the nonstop chatter about how the economy will crumble under the weight of trade wars, the relatively high interest rates and the endless breathless chatter from Fed heads who end up not mattering anyway. It's a parade of horribles that requires you to hold your nose, avert your eyes and keep by. So I salute you for staying in.
I know it couldn't have been easier to hang on through this decline, but it sure was worth it, wasn't it? OK, now we did have this one anomaly at the end of the day, the annual Russell rebalancing. And that's where the Russell 1000, 2000, 3000 rebalance to reflect changes in the market's capitalization. This is a big deal because there's really very little liquidity in some of these smaller stocks. Look for many of the most egregious moves that were done at the close today to be undone Monday morning, both on the buy and the sell side.
People didn't seem to know about it. It's kind of strange because it used to be such a big topic of conversation. Now, also after the close, we got stress test results for the banks. It's an annual affair, which gives the banks that get good grades a chance to buy back a lot more stock. All 22 banks passed their stress test tonight. Not unusual.
So maybe we can see a bunch of buybacks announced next week based on these good grades. I know that I have been very upfront about how Capital One, COF, good piece in The Wall Street Journal, has an opportunity here. That would be the one that I think could do the best in terms of what people are thinking about going forward. With that out of the way, what's coming up next week? All right. A week that's really just three and a half days, frankly, because of July 4th falls,
It falls on a Friday this year, and Thursday's now a half session. It's a slow week, but it does end with a bang. All right, now on Monday, we have a very special interview with Andy Jassy. He's the CEO of Amazon. It's a huge position for my travel trust. We'll talk about everything from investments and rural delivery to new and improved Alexa to the growth of Amazon Web Services, the juicy gross margins of Amazon advertising, and why we love being Prime members.
Given its retail presence, Amazon's got a great read on the consumer. Its international business seems to have turned the corner. We need to talk AI and whether its own chips are a threat to NVIDIA's best semiconductors or just something that can be made to augment them. And of course, we're going to talk about China. Right now, I'm concerned about the consumer after we got some weak consumer spending data today.
I hope Amazon's Jassy can give us some color about how consumers are really spending. They seem stalled right now, something that should make the Federal Reserve think twice about whether they can really afford to wait before they start cutting interest rates again, which is really something that's very much on the table. Now, I'm not worried about the industrial portion of the economy, which has been pretty strong, but I am trying to figure out if the numbers have been distorted by orders pulled through because of the tariffs.
That's why I'm more interested than usual in something called the Chicago PMI. I think it's the best indicator of the industrial economy, and it could influence interest rates if it is weak, putting even more pressure on the Fed to start cutting again. Right now, the market's pricing in an 18.6% chance of a rate cut at the July meeting, but a more than 93% likelihood to cut it by September. I don't know if we can wait that long.
On Tuesday, we get results from former market darling Constellation Brands. What a fallen idol. There's so much to unpack here because this consumer packaged goods company is a microcosm of what's gone wrong with this now pathetic group that used to be the place to go when there's a slowdown. First, Constellation is an alcohol company, so all of their products are being hurt by the GLP-1 drugs, which can blunt your creativity. For booze, that's especially true for the big beers, which are Modelo, Corona, and then GF.
a new popular favorite, Pacifica. Second, increasing surveys show that there's a switch from beer to cannabis because smoking weed is theoretically less fattening. I say theoretically because while alcohol has way more calories, it doesn't give you the munchies.
This younger generation cares more about their health than previous ones. Sounds fanciful, but it is true. Third Constellation said its sales have been hurt by concerns in the Hispanic community about mass deportations. The stock's been steadily declining all quarter. It's been downgraded by analysts jumping ship from the company that used to beat and raise and beat and raise over and over and over again. Used to be a big position for my trust.
That was then. Now we expect consolation to miss. We'll get the results Tuesday night and the conference call will start on Wednesday morning. You'll probably see the stock jump up when it reports. That's what it typically does. And then it declines through the rest of the day. So let's be careful. OK. Also on Wednesday, we get mortgage application numbers and these have become an albatross for the entire economy.
As long as rates remain this high, we've come to accept anemic home sales. And given that housing punches above its weight, we know that this end of the economy will not be improving. Thursday is the key day of the week.
All right. That's when we get the June non-farm payrolls report. It's an important number. It always is an important number. If we get a weak number, the president is most likely on that day going to call for Jay Powell's head again. Maybe we'll name Powell's successor that day much sooner than expected, if only to push Jay to start cutting rates or quit his job, which I think, by the way, he's not inclined to do.
I don't think any one-week number, even one as important as the labor report, will matter all that much. But if we see very few new jobs created match that with lower or flat wages, perhaps the possibility of a July rate cut will be back on the table. The bottom line, we're headed for a shortened week after a terrific quarter, one that started horrendously and finished incredibly strong, showing you that staying the course is the only logical way to approach this often mercurial and treacherous market. Let's start
with questions. Let's start with Rick in California. Rick. Hey, Jim. I'm calling in from Napa. From Napa? Oh, my God. I was there last Friday. Oh, I had such a good time. Yeah. I probably saw you. I was in Calistoga. Oh, yeah. Right on. Cool. Absolutely. Jim, the stock I wanted to ask you about, it declined from its peak during the COVID days, but I believe it's in connection with healthcare and biotech.
uh gives it a lot of potential for growth uh the stock i'm thinking about is thermo fisher
This stock is unbelievable. It's a great company. Mark Casper does a terrific job, but we own Danaher for the Chapel Trust, and it's as bad as Thermo Fisher. I am urging you to not buy it until we see a pickup in Chinese orders. I know that seems strange, but this stock has crushed a lot of people. It does seem like it's bottoming, but I am not going to push it because it's related to China, and anything related to China is bearish. Why don't we go to Chuck in Illinois? Please, Chuck.
Jim, I bought a stock one of your viewers called in about. It's a great stock. I wrote it up 100 points and sold it. It dropped during the pandemic. Afterwards, it was fairly stagnant, so I bought others. Then it's up 25, 50, or 100 every time I see it. I'd have to sell some PIMCO with a 10% dividend to buy it. Should I buy it at over 800?
Wait for a major pullback. Wait for a big split. The stock is AXON Industries. If you let me, look, I think Rick Smith is great. I have often thought about putting this on my, in the bullpen for this, for the travel trust, but it just won't quit. I think you have to buy, look, if you want to buy 100 shares, buy 25 Monday.
And then you got to wait for it to come down. You can't just buy it all right here. Because then I feel like that could be just the kiss. It would be just terrible if the stock came in. Once again, all time high today. Let's go to Frank in New York. Frank.
Hey, Jim, Mr. Professor, the other night, Micron, I mean, what a statement they came out with and a fantastic forecast. The stock runs up and then it fades. What was that all about? All right. Well, this is not unusual for Micron. I've seen this happen many times in Micron. This stock went literally from 60 to 126.
And they did a fantastic quarter, but there's no way that a stock that goes from 60 to 126 can go higher, no matter how good it is. This is a momentary pullback, and then you're going to have to start buying the stock all over again. I like the stock of 120. All right, listen, as we come up on the last day of the quarter next week, it's worth remembering that this is a market that rewards staying the course. Wow. What made money tonight? Samsara.
is down on the year because of tariff concerns. But should investors take a closer look at the Internet of Things? That's a similar way as IoT. Don't miss my exclusive with the CEO. Man, we've had an impressive recovery in tech, haven't we? But Apple, what do we do here? Hey, we'll tell you what to do because there's a certain point where Apple's too cheap. I'll give you my analysis. And the investing club members met this week. And you know what? We got some amazing questions left over from the monthly meeting. So I'm answering those questions today.
because I do anything I can to help club members. So stay with Kramer. Don't miss a second of Mad Money. Follow at Jim Kramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Kramer. Hashtag Mad Mentions. Send Jim an email to madmoneyatcnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-CNBC. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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Also needing to know you won't be hitting any bumps tomorrow. That's why they handle over $17 trillion in payments smoothly and effectively every year. And we're also named one of America's most innovative companies by Fortune magazine. After all, that's what commercial payments are all about. Steady, reliable expertise that keeps money flowing in and out like clockwork.
So Fifth Third does that. But commercial payments are also about building new and disruptive solutions. So Fifth Third does that too. That's your commercial payments a Fifth Third better.
This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed daily market preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash market update podcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.
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Let's talk about Samsara. That's a software infrastructure play. It's focused on the connected operations cloud, a system that lets companies connect their physical operations directly to the cloud in order to find better ways to run their business, to save money.
Earlier this week, Sam Sarra held this Investor Day out in San Diego. Management told a positive story about the state of their business, mentioning some new product launches that could make their platform more enticing. We've got to hear about those. So with the stock down 9% for the year on worries that this tricky economy will make their enterprise customers less willing to spend on software, could this be a buying opportunity? Or is the stock down for no good reason? I don't know. Let's check in with Sanjay Biswas.
He's the co-founder and CEO of Simsor to find out. Mr. Biswas, welcome back to Mad Money.
Hey, Jim. Thanks for having me. Okay, so I don't understand this. I know that when I call you and I ask you for a package, I save money immediately. And I'm trying to tell our viewers the exact selling proposition you have because you are in truly operating rarefied air. You and Palantir are the only two companies that have a huge amount of recurring revenue and growth. I'm trying to figure out what's wrong with this picture.
Well, Jim, I think the most important thing to understand is the customer perspective. These are businesses that have been around in some cases over 100 years. They're our supply chain companies. They're the construction companies, utilities, the folks who really power our planet. And they're always looking for ways to save money, be safer, more efficient. So I think for them, they're looking at what's going on in the macro. And of course, they want to be smart and making wise decisions. But they're also thinking more broadly about digitization. And that's what we're
We're really selling into it. All right, so I'm Home Depot. I'd say maybe one of the top five retailers in the world. And I'm a smart guy, and I want to know about what my drivers are up to. I want to know about my vehicles. I bring you in, what do I get?
Well, first and foremost, you also have a very large frontline team. So you've got folks making deliveries out of job sites, and you want to make sure they're being kept safe. Most companies at Home Depot scale, they're self-insured, so they have an economic interest that's very aligned with that safety message. So that's a very big priority for them. And then, of course, you want to be efficient. You want to be running your routes as
smartly as you can. You want to be saving as much fuel as you can. So going digital helps with all of that. Having it all in one place, having a system with AI that's helping make those smarter decisions. Now, we're in a world where one of the biggest concerns is safety.
And one of the reasons, candidly, for business people, there are more safety rules added every single year. It's a remarkable thing to have a small business, medium-sized business, because every single January, it's new safety rules. What do you guys do to be able to make things safer?
Well, the key for us is helping reduce risk. A lot of what that safety concern is about is just understanding what's causing accidents. And those accidents can be very costly for business owners of all different scales. If you think about a very large company like Republic Services, for example, they're in the waste management industry. They're dealing with risk all the time because they're operating over the road with well over 10,000 vehicles in their fleet. They want to make sure their drivers aren't taking a glance at their mobile phone, that everyone's wearing their seatbelt,
They're maintaining following distance. These are all habits. And so we can use AI to help coach those drivers. It's not that Big Brother's watching them. It's that the AI is helping them out. That reduces risk, breaks bad habits and saves the company money. We've had Republic Services on. They are a company that pinches pennies, which is absolutely the right thing. What else? How about what can you do for fuel management?
Well, so Republic Services actually was at our conference earlier this week. They won an award for excellence in operations and using technology. Safety was a lot of what they were working on, so 50% reduction in mobile usage. But they can also do things like understand engine idling. If you think about a garbage truck, it gets a very different miles per gallon than our sedans. And so that's the kind of thing where...
understanding a couple of percent of idling and low utilization can save them millions of dollars. This is a company that spends hundreds of millions of dollars on fuel every year to run their operations. So they're always looking for ways to find that little bit of an edge. Now, speaking of a little bit of an edge, there is a remarkable thing that happens on job sites where, and we talked about this once before, where people lose, they lose equipment. Now, I know that if you're watching at home, you can't imagine you'd ever lose something as expensive as a tractor. But
But when you're doing gigantic jobs, it's incredible how often it occurs. Unless we hire your company, we don't even know where the stuff went.
That's right. So tracking assets, making sure they're utilized, and also making sure you get them back. It's very important for most of our customers. And they have very large, complex operations. They might have tens of thousands of pieces of construction equipment. There's accessories and buckets and all kinds of things that attach to those. So they need to make sure they get all that back. Otherwise, they have to go pay to replace it. And that can be tens of millions of dollars for a number of our customers. So when you...
When you have your conference, do you stress to people, look, this is a new thing that's come up since we've seen you last? I mean, is that one of the reasons why? Because obviously people are trying to save. If you can save $150,000 and you're a $4 million business, that's great. If you can save $1.5 million and you're a $40 million, it's just kind of pyramids. Are these companies looking for the new way to save a little bit?
They are. They're looking for ways to really innovate in their operations. They're always trying to find that little bit of an advantage, whether it's safety or efficiency. If you think about some of these companies, they're operating at such massive scale that making smarter decisions saves them millions of dollars. I'll give you one more example. Mohawk Industries was at our conference, very large flooring company, one of the largest, I think, in the world.
They saved close to $8 million by figuring out how to run their fleets in a smarter way, deliver to their customers in a more efficient manner, and they consolidated their fleet. So they took three different fleets that didn't really know about each other's operations, brought them onto one platform. And that's the kind of thing that just makes common sense, but it's hard to do unless you have the right technology. Absolutely. The last thing I want to do and ask you about, we can't go by, can't leave you without asking about wearables because you do have new wearable technology. You sounded pretty sensible to me.
We do. And so wearables are all about keeping that frontline safe, not just on the road, but also at that job site. A lot of these folks are working on their own. They might be delivering food and beverage at 3 a.m. or checking on an oil well in the middle of nowhere. And so being able to get them help if anything happens is very important. And if you think about these operations, they have to run in all different kinds of weather. And so if there's a weather hazard on the way, we want to be able to alert them.
That's a lot of what we announced at the conference was bringing in all this data, connecting the front line and getting them real time help in case they need it. Let me ask you, these new ideas, do they come because you hear from the customers that they need something? Or do you just have people who are very inventive at your company who would say, you know what, this is something that all companies could use?
Well, Jim, it's absolutely a conversation with the customer. And that's why we put these conferences on. We get thousands of operations professionals together, folks that are leading their teams. They understand their industries. They understand the challenges. And we bring in our engineers, our product managers, and really everyone from our company to listen to them. And that's how we brainstorm with them is we say, hey, would this help? Would this move the needle? And then if it's a great idea, we come back a year later or two years later and show them that product in action. So that's been what works for our company. What is the cost?
of going to Samsara and asking what you can do for us as a customer? What's the cost? Well, we really try to keep it simple. We love just getting involved, understanding your operations. This is not a hardware-intensive business. You don't need to buy thousands of dollars of product to see it work. We do free trials. And it's really about software, and it's a software-as-a-service model. So the idea is that you try it out. If it works for you, great. If
you pick up a subscription and that might be for one or two or five products. It doesn't really matter. We just want to go make an impact in your operation. Well, now I know why you have such great annual recurring revenue, because there's common sense. And that is Sanjit Biswas. He's the co-founder and chairman and CEO of Samsara. Thank you so much, Sanjit. Good to see you. Thank you, Jim. Great to see you too. And the symbol, by the way, is IoT, Internet of Things. Everybody's back after the break.
Coming up, is Apple on sale? Kramer's digging in and seeing if now is the time to buy into the tech giant on weakness or whether you should hold off taking a bite. Next.
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We've had an incredible run over the past few months, but somehow it doesn't feel complete with Apple lagging far behind the averages. Granted, the stock still bounced off its early April lows, but it's not even back to where it was before President Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs. For the past month or so, Apple's been trading sideways, basically hugging the $200 level, while the rest of the tech sector's been roaring.
And look, as much as I love Apple, the company which makes the world's best product, in my opinion, there's a reason why we own it for the child trust. I get that lack of enthusiasm. When the company reported its most recent quarter, management gave tepid guidance. Because of our mercurial president, clearly he has Apple in his crosshairs.
He's threatened to hit third Indian-made iPhones with that 25% tariff because they wouldn't move their manufacturing back to the United States. President Trump was also, I think, miffed that Apple CEO Tim Cook didn't join him on his grand tour of the Gulf monarchies last month. Meanwhile, Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference earlier this month, it didn't yield anything groundbreaking, especially on the AI front, although I didn't necessarily expect it would. People were very hopeful.
There are renewed concerns about the App Store, too, after some adverse court rulings in recent weeks. And now we need to worry about what the numbers will look like when Apple reports again at the end of July.
Long story short, the stock is just plain out of favor right now. There's no getting around it. But as I've said before, I'm inclined to stick with Apple despite all the uncertainty. Tim Cook and his team have earned the benefit of the doubt. I've been around long enough to remember all the times when things have looked very bad for Apple. And in hindsight, they've all proven to be great buying opportunities. All of them.
I often say, only somewhat facetiously, that I worry about Apple when I start seeing people walking around with Samsung phones because everybody I know uses the iPhone. But with the stock stuck here at just over $200,
down nearly 20% year to date, and devoid of any momentum whatsoever. I want to approach this thing from a different direction. As Apple's sputtered along over the past few months, I've been wondering about something. When exactly does this stock become too cheap to ignore?
Is it only a question of valuation? Right now, it trades at 28 times this year's earnings estimates. That's down from 35.5 times their earnings at its peak valuation last July. I think it's much more complicated than that, though. We're going to walk through it. Several years ago, just before the pandemic, Apple stock was re-rated higher.
Basically, Wall Street completely changed the way it views this company. Rather than valuing Apple like yet another hardware play, the market finally gave the stock a premium multiple. That was the right decision. I always used to wonder how the greatest company in the world could have a lower price during his mobile than a Procter & Gamble or even a Colgate, especially when it has an extremely robust service revenue stream. People finally started paying up for Apple in 2019. Then during the early part of the pandemic, the stock rallied hard, up 80% in 2020.
even as there wasn't much of an uptick in earnings. In late August of 2020, this thing was trading at nearly 39 times earnings. That's high. So if we're talking about Apple's valuation historical respect, I don't think it makes sense to consider the days when it used to trade like any other tech hardware name. Apple's just too good for that. And that mostly recurring service revenue has now become nearly 25% of the overall business, and it's growing faster than the overall business.
That means we can only go back to 2020 or so. Now, just in the past two years, we've seen some serious sell-offs. From the July of 2023 to October of the same year, the stock tumbled 16% on week sales numbers. Then after Apple recovered and reached a new high at the end of 2023, there was an 18% pullback from December 2023 to April of 2024. In both of these cases, the stock bottomed when its valuation dropped about 25 times earnings. That's a key number.
During the post-liberation day meltdown this April, Apple briefly traded below that level, bottoming at 23.7 times earnings before quickly recovering, with the stock currently selling for 28 times earnings. It's not too far from what maybe could be called a floor. Now, if we go back to the last true bear market in 2022, when the S&P fell 27.5% from peak to 12 and Apple fell 32.1%,
That was a little different. In 2022, the stock's forward price earnings multiple plunged to exactly 20 times earnings before it bottomed. In retrospect, that looks like a pretty clear line in the sand when investors finally said enough is enough and began to buy Apple handover fast. By the way, after the stock bottomed at the end of, I'm sorry, at the start of 2023, it went on to rally 93% over the next two years.
Okay, now, let's look at this in a slightly different way. You can't look at the price-to-earnings multiple in a vacuum. You have to factor in the earnings growth rate.
Why? Because money managers will pay up for growth. They always do. Apple's expected to put up 14 percent earnings growth in the current calendar year, while the S&P 500 as a whole should only see earnings grow at a 9.4 percent clip. So Apple stock deserves a premium. And that's what it's getting. It trades at 28 times earnings while the S&P now sells for 23 times earnings.
But how much of a premium does Apple deserve? I always like to look at the peg ratio, P.E.G., the price to earnings multiple relative to the growth rate. The S&P 500 has a peg ratio of just under 2.5 right now.
Apple's peg ratio is just under two. So you could argue that Apple's already undervalued here if you simply just give it to the same peg ratio as the S&P. Then the stock should sell at 35 times earnings. And that would make a $250 stock. Now, I'm not saying that's definitely where it's headed, just that it would be rather easy to justify. So let's put this all together now.
When we look at the past couple of years of Apple's price earnings ratio, the multiple has repeatedly bottomed at 25 times earnings. When we briefly breached that level after Liberation Day, the stock quickly bounced back, even though the headlines read terribly at the time. If Apple were to revisit that level, meaning if the stock falls below 180...
then I think you have to buy it. Buy, buy, buy! But if the company can shake off the negativity that currently surrounds the story, I'd argue that the stock deserves to trade at something more than 35 times earnings, where it's roughly where it peaked last year. Bottom line, though, there's clearly a point where Apple stock becomes too cheap to ignore, and
And recent history says that's around 25 times earnings. Now, write this down. That means down about 20 points from here. I certainly don't want to see it revisit that level. It's something we talked about, by the way, at our Charitable Trust meeting earlier this week. That's the level. But if for some reason the stock gets clobbered, you know what?
Let's back up the truck at 180. But if Apple can shake off its current shroud of negativity, maybe they make noise at President Trump somehow. I could justify paying 35 times earnings for the stock, which is why I'm simply not ready to give up on this one. 180, that's the level. I need to go to California and California. California. Yeah, right here, Jim. You heard it right.
I did? Not a mistake. Yes, you did. Not a mistake. What was your mother's name? Wyoming or something? It was Catherine, actually, but my dad's a surfer, so he had to get me back out here one way or another. I hear you. I hear you. Excellent. Let's go to work. All right.
All right. So my dad and I are members of Reinvesting Club, and we are big on data center trends. We're looking at GE Vernova. We know you keep talking about buying GE Vernova, even if it keeps going up. But we have one question that we're not really sure about. Sure, let's hear it.
So if G so on your last, last time you had the CEO on that, he mentioned that they are not planning to increase plant capacity for Nova's books being logged through 20, 30. How does that impact the growth estimate? And where does that,
mean whether we should be waiting for a pullback or really buying at $0.23? I thought we should be waiting for a pullback, California. And the reason I did say that was because if they're not going to put up more capacity, how are we going to raise numbers? Now, obviously, they can, I guess, charge more. But the fact is that this industry has been burned so many times they expand that these guys are unwilling to do it. I think that they have to open up their pocketbook and start building more plant so that they can have more turbines. And I think you're absolutely right. I want to thank you for joining the club. And I
remember when it comes to apple i'm still not ready to give up on it i think it could get down to about 25 times earnings that's the level where it could be too cheap to ignore much more mad money in earlier this week we held our monthly meeting for members of the cbc investing club as i just mentioned and we've got some amazing questions that we figured we'd answer some more of tonight then a wave of money is being transferred from baby boomers to future generations
I'm sharing my strategy if you're on the receiving end, and we're going to talk about this a lot in the second half of 2025. And order calls rapid fire tonight's edition of the Lightning Round. So stay with Kramer. On Wednesday, we held our Investing Club monthly meeting, where Jeff Marks and I get together to walk club members through our decision-making process for the stock portfolio. We discuss our current holdings, and we take questions from our club members. That's my favorite part of the meeting, taking your questions.
And since we have never had enough time to answer all those questions, I'd like to give you an inside look at what happens at the monthly meetings today, while also hopefully doling out some much-needed market advice. So remember, if you want to become a member of the club before the annual meeting come up next month, scan the code next to me or go to cmec.com slash investing club. I want to meet you, get my picture with you, and talk stocks, stocks, and more stocks.
First up, we have a question from Ira who asks, which do you think will lead over the next year or two? American Express, Visa, or MasterCard? Okay, this is a very hard question because Visa and MasterCard are valued much more highly, I think, than American Express in terms of PE multiple. I
I want American Express of these three, and I'll tell you why. I think American Express has got this younger demographic that is really exciting and not really built into the price-to-earnings multiple. That said, look, these are all great companies. I met with Visa. I met with MasterCard's management this week. I talked with Visa's management. You're not going to go wrong owning any one of these companies. They're three of the best companies in America.
Next, Rich in New York asks, as the deadline on EU tariff deals approaches on July 9th, are there any defensive plays you recommend? Well, the president's kind of said, listen, that's not that hard and fast a date. So we don't really have to worry that much.
So I'm going to say, look, let's not get too defensive. I think a lot of people got defensive about this. And that's one of the reasons why we had this kind of roaring bull at the end of the last month, because people said, listen, I don't want to be in because of what's going to happen. And then the president kind of switched the rules. So we're not going to be defensive if we have to be defensive. Here's what we do. We raise cash. A lot of people want to be in defensive stocks.
When you want to be defensive, you raise cash. All right, now let's go to John in Oregon, who asked, Jim, what is your current take on energy transfers? Is it still a buy? What's your outlook for natural gas? Natural gas, very hard to tell. I think that three to four is probably where it belongs. ET had a problem. They've got some...
Ethane issues, the government's holding up the ethane from China because we're trying to say, listen, you won't give us rare earth materials. We won't give you ethane. Now, I think that's a little misjudgment by part of our government because ethane is actually kind of a broad commodity that anybody can get anywhere. That has hurt E.T. It will make it so the numbers may not be as good. But the fact is, it's got a great yield and I think it's a pretty well-run company. I like enterprise product partners, too, but they, too, have the same ethanol problem.
Next up is a question from Gerald, who asks, you've talked about cyclical versus secular. How do you know if a company is cyclical or secular? You have to look back in the periods that we had declines, recessions, when the economy actually retreated, OK, when it contracted. And if you see that the company's earnings still went up during that period, you've got a secular grower in your hands.
If the company's earnings deteriorated and you saw this up and down thing, you've got a sickle grower. I favor secular growth and I'm going to pay up for it because growth is king and growth is safety in this market. Now let's go to John in California. He wants to know, do you think Dutch Bros would be a better long-term investment over Starbucks? No, I'll tell you why. Dutch Bros had a very big move. I like the stock very much and everybody knows that. Okay. But Starbucks has Brian Nichol.
And Brian Nicol was the man who turned around Chipotle when people felt that Chipotle was going to be an all-Saran, never really make it. He turned it. I think that he's done a remarkable job where he was before, and he's already doing a remarkable job at Starbucks because he's cut the throughput down for a minute time to be able to get a Starbucks. That's what he wanted to do. He's on to the next. He can sell China if he wants to. There's lots of buyers. I think he's got a better hand.
Better hand than Christine right now at Dutch Bros, even though I think Dutch Bros is terrific. You're not going to go wrong by it here. Next up is a question from Rich, who asked, what is Corby's relationship with Nvidia? Is it overbought right now? Should I stay away from it until it comes back down? I think it is overbought. I think it's up on a short squeeze. I think the stock is just way too high. All.
I mean, look at this. I mean, prices at 40. It should never price there when it did its IPO. People didn't like it. They didn't understand the balance sheet. Lots of hedge funds got shorted here thinking that this thing really was not worth anything at all. I recommended buy it the whole darn time, the whole darn time. So now that it's got here, if I recommended here, I don't need to recommend it again here. What I need to tell you is that if you bought it here, you can take off half of your position.
Half of it. And then you're playing with the house's money. Who doesn't want to play with the house's money? That's the goal. The goal, if you want to be a great investor, is the house's money. And that's what you have if you bought Corweave when we said that we liked it. The relationship with NVIDIA is very solid. NVIDIA owns a big chunk of Corweave. Now let's go to Bob, who asks, I've read and studied all the books you have written. When is your newest book going to be released? OK, it looks like it's going to be released at the end of September. And I think it's going to be one of those things where
well, I'm kind of, you know, well, look, let's just, this is, now this is a mock. This book is not the real book, okay? But this is the cover. It's what, we've done a lot of reiterations of it. It's how to make money in any market. I don't really want to front run it yet, but
But I'm very excited about it. We've gotten through, where am I right now, the proofing stage. And I'm very proud of it. What can I say? I think it's been real good. I think you're going to like it a lot. And I'm trying to work maybe something with club members to get it. But this is the book, How to Make Money in Any Market. And I'm very, very excited about it coming out in September. Thanks again to all our club members who sent in questions. Mad Money is back after the break.
Coming up, Kramer takes your calls and the sky's the limit. It's a fast fire lightning round. Next. It is time. It's time for the lightning round. And just to be clear, I don't record stuff. And then the lightning round is over. Are you ready? You know what I was talking about? Ian in Florida. Ian.
Hey, Booyah, Jim, how you doing? I am doing well. How about you, Ian? I'm doing great. TGIF. What is that? What stock is that? I don't know, man. No, it doesn't come up. I don't know what to do. It doesn't come up. All right, let's go. Jim, I wanted to ask you about a stock that's kind of in the quarry space. They kind of do the same thing. They rent out the GPUs.
What do you think about this company and is it a good time to enter? It's Nebbiest.
Oh, geez. My chief scientist has over and over and over again said Nebius is the one to own, not Corweave. Oh, no. He says just right now, he's just saying it's a second rate Corweave. We're not going to own either, though. Corweave has moved up too much. And Nebius, we are not going to trust. You know what? It's Friday. Why is everybody wearing? Why are other people working? OK, let's go to David Michigan. Dave.
Hi, Dave from Michigan, long-term viewer. Okay, Dave, you're up. When I visit my grandchildren in other states, I like to take them out for lunch. Can I get some grandchildren, please?
You can't help me. Go ahead. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. My granddaughter, she loves sweet greens. And I see you've been sweet on sweet greens. Choice having their CEO. But I have. But you know what? The stock's down 57 percent and they're not making money. And I've gone over and over and over. You got a certain point. Make money. It's just that simple. And if you don't make money, then people are not going to be attracted to your stock. They have to have a surprise quarter. That's the only way they can do it. Let's go to Stephen in Maryland. Stephen.
Booyah, Jim. Thanks for taking my call. My pleasure. I'm a proud club member. Wednesday meeting was great. Thank you for you and your team for everything you guys do. I almost lost my voice. Thank you, Jeff, for saving me. What's going on?
I got a question about stock. I've offloaded my call spaces, but I'm wondering what to do with the rest. The stock is Monster Energy. The answer is you own it. Do you know that Monster since 1990 has actually been the best performing stock? I mean, it's unbelievable how good it is. Of course, NVIDIA. NVIDIA. But Monster since 1990, if you look at that time frame, I got to tell you something. That is just one smoking hot stock, and I would not walk away from that to save my life. I need to go to Dennis, North Carolina. Dennis!
Jimmy, happy Friday. What's up? Man, I feel like working all weekend. If only someone would pay me, I'm ready. Let's go, let's go. Hey, back in May, this company beat all analysts' expectations, posted record profits, but held the course on their guidance, and they've been paying for it ever since. If we liked it at $120, do we love it at $98? Do we buy, sell, hold Okta? You buy Okta.
Todd McKinnon is unbelievable. He came on the show. He said a lot of good things. I think that he's being conservative. I want to own more Okta. But to be sure, I like CrowdStrike and I like Palo Alto. I think both of them have a little more game than Okta. Let's go to John in Arkansas. John. Greetings from the natural state, Mr. Kramer. You betcha, man. I wish I were down there. I could go to work this weekend. It's a right-to-work state. What's happening?
Hey, I talked to you about 17 years ago. I was on a dividend reinvestment program with McDonald's, MCD. McDonald's? You know, I've been saying that you must own McDonald's. You must. The stock has never been down for longer than like a couple of months.
It's the time to buy McDonald's. Let me throw in yum. And don't forget, I think Texas Roadhouse is terrific, even though beef prices are high. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. A wave of money, a virtual tsunami, is gradually being transferred from my fellow baby boomers to the next generations. $100 trillion by some estimates.
And I'm determined to teach their kids how to become better investors. It's a big switch. I know most older viewers aren't paying much attention to it. I'm in the same demographic, and I don't want to think about my mortality either. But I see it happening, and I know that these young people like new stocks, different stocks, the kind of stocks where there's news flow that they can trade in and invest in.
Most other people just don't see this. They're not looking. They aren't glued to Robin. They don't read the Reddit business sections. They're unaware of 24-hour trading. They don't know how these new players invest in the market. But I know because I traded through the 90s. I was acutely aware that something different was going on. New investors coming into the market. At first, I couldn't put my finger on it because I was dealing with big institutions in my hedge fund, and they didn't know anything about it. They couldn't see the waves coming in. They were naive investors.
Me? I started thestreet.com in 1995. It's a daily site that catered to traders, so I saw what people wanted, and it drew me toward two firms, Ameritrade and E-Trade, where they did most of the business. I didn't know these firms at all, but I realized I had to get on the case. I talked to the excellent people who run both companies, and they described how the new buyers worked, what they thought, like, what they did. Typically, they liked the high flyers of the era, the dot-coms that were making them a lot of money, even as they rarely took the profits they should have.
This time, things are indeed different. The new money is much more sizable, and the investor is much younger. These buyers tend to be working with Robinhood, the rebellious brokerage that will forever be linked with GameStop, but it's become one of the greatest stocks of our era. The money is inheritance money, the instruction. Get some money into the stock market because you're young, you have your whole life ahead of you. Sure, there'll be money that goes into bonds, but they'll definitely want less bond exposure than their parents did, if only because of the age difference.
What's the younger person's mindset? Simple. They believe in the future and the companies that will be a part of that future.
They believe in big trends. When they read that the president, say, wants to boost electric power to keep our data centers ahead of our other countries, as we just read, they buy GE Vernova for gas turbines and potential nuclear power. They buy a company called Aklo. That company recycles waste into nuclear power using fission power. They believe in flying cars, so they buy Joby and Archer. They like crypto, so they buy any derivative of it, including Coinbase. Of
Of course, they buy a lot of these ETFs that invest in these momentum stocks, and they buy Palantir 24-7. The stock was down badly. I think it may have been today because of a Russell rebalance, but it'll probably start going up again on Monday.
It's my job to help advise you about what to do, not only with the Procter & Co. gates, but with the NVIDIAs and with the Corus. It's vital to know about nukes. I must study the quantum tech stocks. I have to be into the rocket stocks to know the mindset, even if, well, maybe I don't believe too many people in my position just don't care about this cohort or what they like to buy. But I see their stocks running. So how can I not care?
I'm going to redouble my efforts to learn these stories in the second half of the year to be helpful. It's no longer tenable to focus just on what I want to do. I have to focus more on what the younger viewers want. After all, it's their money now. I'd like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise you I'll find it just for you right here on Monday. I'm Jim Cramer. I'll see you Monday.
All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium.
You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash madmoneydisclaimer.
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