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cover of episode Belief Over Fear: Markets Defy Gravity Amid Uncertainty

Belief Over Fear: Markets Defy Gravity Amid Uncertainty

2024/11/25
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D
Dan Nathan
知名金融分析师和评论员,常在 CNBC 上提供市场分析和评论。
E
Elizabeth Young Thomas
G
Guy Adami
经验丰富的华尔街交易员和金融分析师,知名媒体人物。
Topics
Guy Adami认为市场近期上涨是由于对新任财政部长提名的积极反应,并指出这是历史上罕见的因人事任命而导致市场剧烈波动的情况。他还提到市场对财政部长人选的预期反应强烈,金融类股票表现尤其突出。 Dan Nathan指出新任财政部长提名是市场参与者关注的焦点,并可能影响其与美联储的合作方式。他认为未来几周债券市场走势将对明年初市场方向有重要影响,并表示个人认为收益率将继续上升,但市场对通货膨胀的担忧有所缓解。 Elizabeth Young Thomas认为市场预期准确,对财政部长人选的积极反应推动市场上涨。她指出对更低监管和更高增长的预期,以及对财政部长人选的积极评价,增强了市场对未来增长的信心。她还提到长期来看,减税可能会刺激消费,从而导致通货膨胀反弹,需要关注通货膨胀的来源和驱动因素。

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The discussion focuses on the market's reaction to the announcement of a new Treasury Secretary, with expectations of lower regulations and cyclical growth into 2025.
  • Market participants were most focused on the Treasury Secretary pick.
  • Expectations of lower regulations and higher growth are driving market enthusiasm.
  • The rally in the market is seen as a continuation of the existing momentum.

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Welcome to the money addition of the podcast guy at down me here, always done by dana. And then how are you? I do a great guy a little a bit Young.

Thomas SHE have so far, I know you're well because the packing ers of Green bay are just steam rolling the rest of the league, if they were in any other division, theyd be sitting at a top of perch looking down at everybody else. But of course, the detroit lions are kicking everybody. Has you like to?

How are you? I am fantastic. You're right. Steam rolling.

They are beat the miners yesterday. The miners have taken us out of the playoffs. Seems like every year for the my entire life. So IT always feels good .

to beat the minors does, by the way, a injury riddled miners. But you know what, in the end, fill. Nobody cares. Nobody cares.

do you? You don't points for style like the wind to win.

Speaking of style, and the market is styling and profiling. This morning, as we're sitting here, S, M, P, features up again. And my senses is on the back of the announcement we heard for the treasury secretary, which I take something that was IT was either hammer worse, both of them were sort of one a and one. And you know what? I think in this case.

they got that right now. Yeah, I mean, listen, you know, relatives, just some of the other pics. I think this was the one that a lot of market participants were most focused on, obviously. And really, there's probably some interplay with how IT might work with the fed.

I just can't remember the last time I saw like a person l decision even going back to two thousand and seventeen or I guess late sixteen during that transition that could cause a seventy five basis points opening in the S M. P. Five hundred.

I mean, the market is raging and less. You know, one of the things that that took me away friday afternoon, I was messed around a little bit doing other things during the market, and I looked up at two thirty. And the way that banks and anything else financially oriented was raging IT was kind of intimate, I think, something about who that treasury pic might be.

Yeah, the market definitely anticipated IT and the market anticipated IT correctly. I think we found out the ana came time early dinner time on friday night. And here we are about to open been on monday morning. And I think a lot of enthusiasm more wind at the markets back, if you will.

And I think we already had a decent amount of wind at the markets back, especially from what we would consider a wall street perspective and a banking perspective, the expectation of lower regulations and just higher growth, more signal activity into twenty twenty five and now what people are taking as a friendly pick for business activity as well in twenty twenty five. So I think that this rally, if there was any question whether not the rally could continue through a year. And I think this treasury secretary pic reduces the question mark.

No, I I think, listen, going to learn a lot over the next couple weeks. This week is a tough one to gauge, obviously, because it's a holiday short ten week. So I don't want to put a lot of stock in to what yells doing stuff.

But if we're going to know a lot more in the next couple weeks, whether that the bond market wants to continue to sell off and yields to continue to move higher or if that sort four a hf percent then we saw a week or so ago we can have or so ago is the top for the foreseeable future. Now I want to be Crystal clear. I'm still one the people out there that things yields are going higher in the suggest to pause. But with that said, I think the markets can take a lot accused over the next couple weeks in terms of the direction for the beginning of next year.

yeah. And I guess IT comes down to what is your view on inflation. We have the most favored inflation reading later on this week.

I I want to go back to best because I think this kind of wraps up this conversation a little bit. So the new jc reaction right is to send yields lower on the ten year here. And you know this is something is that i'm reading this from the wall sty journal.

Basit sees a coming global economic reordering. And so he's talking about, you know, this policy of three, three, three IT was obeys in in japan his three arrow. The three arrows include getting the IT deficit to three percent of GDP by twenty twenty eight spring GDP growth of three percent through deregulation and producing an additional three million barrels of oil or its equivalent, a date.

I think that was of an interesting sort of think. But my question for you is if you get policy going towards three percent p growth, right, you extend the tax cut. Isn't that massively inflationary? Obviously, the oil thing is to bring down, I guess, the cost of oil, right? But this speaks to greater demand in the economy.

And wasn't this exactly what we were dealing with in the second half of twenty twenty and most of twenty twenty one, where we saw inflation get going off of very low levels? Now we have this cumulative set up from the last four years or so. And now if you do all of this, isn't this massively inflationary.

I think, over a longer term period perhaps? But what the market is reacting to today is two tenets of what you just mention. So as ten year yields crept up to four and a half percent, Marks started to get nervous that beyond foreign a half percent, that is happening for bad reasons.

And two of those big bad reasons where that the deficit was growing and getting out of controlling and was going to keep getting higher or and or that inflation was reigniting and we weren't going to to keep our arms around IT, the fed was doing something wrong. So if there are two tenets in what you just stated, that the deficit might get more under control and that oil Prices come down, keeping inflation more under control, there's a little bit less nerves in the market today. So I think you're seeing this fall in the ten year because of that also, guy, I don't know if you've noticed.

but the two tone is inverted again.

Yes, you are the first one who noticed that. So we're inverted again at the tooths. I think this is the initial medic reaction that, okay, maybe deficits are not as big of a problem.

Maybe inflation won't be as big of a problem. And not only the the fear of inflation becoming a problem because of oil, but if we're producing more now, it's not as easy to just say like go producing more barrels every day. You have to find where to do that from.

You have to there's a lot that goes into IT. There were our costs that go into that. But if we're producing more, that means we're less reliant on oil imports, were less sensitive to attention in middle east.

I think a lot of that is baking through into what's happening in yields today. And that's fine. That's all logical. But then to your point, if we stretched this out over a longer term period, yes, I think in theory, tax cuts will spur consumption.

And if we spur too much consumption, then you run the risk of demand again outstripping supply, in which case inflation reignites. What I wrote about a few weeks ago, we got the last C. P.

I. Report, was that so far, yes, inflation is still maybe a little bit of a problem, but IT continues to be the usual suspects of housing and car insurance. So we have to watch the numbers both in P, C, E and C, P. I.

Where is IT coming from? What are the drivers if IT starts to be the consumer again? I think we get into a little more trouble.

Know it's dance, said PC wednesday, which I I think is going to be interesting and will see at the interpretation of the market. It's a tough week to sort engage things because with light trading, things seem to typically levitate risk as that typically do well in weeks like I will see. But that should be an interesting number as we go to thanksgiving.

The other thing that is just mentioned, which I think is really important, is the fact that once again, whether we're flat or inverted, the fact that the two year yelled down has gone as high as it's done since the fed cut rates in september. Is the real sort of eye opening, sort of head scratcher to me. Ten years, make sense.

Two years, not so much a list. But so i'll ask you, in the context of what we've seen historically, this sort of reinvention, I guess, of the yield curve, I don't really know what to make of IT. And quite Frankly, I bet a lot of these feed heads can't figure out either.

Yeah, I I don't know that the market knows what to make of IT. And the the ten year, I think even there were quite a few technical factors at play. Two, once IT knocked on a half store, you saw buyers come in.

So there was more demand and and not something that drove, yelled back down too. So I don't think IT was just a pure economic play or a pure Scott cant play. I think there was.

Some technical factors that made IT attractive at those levels. But to your point, the two years rising as much as IT has since the started cutting rates doesn't make a ton of sense when you just look at at broad brush. But we know that since the beginning of twenty twenty four, the expectation of rate cuts has come down from six and out.

We're probably going to see four. We're only expecting in the market two cuts for the entirety of twenty twenty five. And I think there was actually a firm, maybe IT was gold man, that might be wrong about that. Who is coming out saying that no cuts might happen in twenty twenty five if growth recognized the way that people are expecting since the two year tracks what the fed is going to do or what people are expected the fed to do that sort of makes sense to see the rise in the two year. But at some point, and so far, I think it's spent foreign alf in a ten year, at some point, equities will not like that rise in yields anymore, and the fed won't like that rise in yields because IT constricts activity too much and starts to work against them.

Well, I take government sex doesn't seem to care then because Scott rub nor who I am not familiar with but he has a note of saying we tell evora is accelerating across equities and crypto. Just stocks enter their best seasonal trading pattern. Corporate demand for buybacks is also increasing, adding why thinks there could be a year and rally in the days to come.

The consolation face seen all last week is typical. And then he says, historically, good year tend to follow more good years for equities, generous when capital gets deployed from the largest asset base. He's placing his order for an S N P.

Thousand cap now. So clock a tickets to about this and and you think about, okay, what you guys just mentioned about rates. So if rates remains somewhat restrictive, but you've had this two year consecutive twenty five plus gains, right? And you just mention what golbin suggesting for that third year.

Think about crypto o that is doubled in the last three month. So so that's a trillion dollars that just kind of made its way through the investing public. Now all of that not here in the U.

S. But you have an S M P that's up twenty six percent, a maza that's up twenty eight percent. You have a wealth effect that's been created, right? And then tack on the potential for the seventeen tax cuts to be made permanent.

right? And you say yourself and you keep hearing, I know guy, that switch you crazy this term animal spirits in the light here are we reflected an asset bubble that reminds us very much at twenty twenty one is the other thing i'll just mention to you. Does that think about all of these IPO s there to come to market?

Think about some of the very aggressive, you know, M A activity that's going to come to market that's not too dissimilar with a cyp franzy than what we experienced in twenty twenty one. And we know that twenty, twenty two was a difficult year, but it's hard sider. The fact that, oh well, everyone so bullish right now, whether be on markets, whether to be on the economy, is soon gonna.

The housing market despite mortgage rates not going lower, commodity market should go crazy. Maybe people are going to start to think that china may be a slightly more difficult rhetoric with them on the terror t leads them to kind of believe that they can be once again, a greater participant in the global economy. And all the sudden, everything is coming up roses here, you know. So again, that's the scenario of that I think all of us would get nervous about because IT brings us back to twenty twenty one.

It's interesting a list and china and tariff s know. I don't think a lot of people realized I sort knew IT, but I didn't know to the extent over the last year or so, mexico is now our biggest trade partner. We import more from mexico than any other country, china in canada, by the way, or in a dead heat for second.

And IT looks as so at some point. Soon canada will take over for that. So terms are important, but I think with the market or maybe with a some of the stone fully comprehend is china doesn't really have the same standing in terms of our relationship just on the export side. That one maybe did four.

five years ago. Yeah well, I think the important takeaway that terabits work to change basically the the world order of how trade, I don't know that they've worked so far to make us entirely you know, more nationally protective in the sense that we're self sufficient producing all of our own goods and services. We're still importing. We're just importing from different places. So terrible do have an effect.

And I would say legal going into twenty, twenty five, then I think we should probably bank on expectation that we're going to hear a lot about terms and then there will be some changes and there will be some implementations of terrorists have been some really big threats of sixty percent tariff s and I think that would be tough to get that through at this point. But I think we should expect that there will be some volatility because of IT and and we can really affect what comes from china, what comes from asia, no matter the country that were targeting. We can actually affect IT.

especially over the long term. Yeah and you know this goes back guide to the first tropical administration. Remember, they had this bug, abo, about nfa, right enough to goes back thirty some years.

And what we saw enough to, obviously a lot of manufacturing here, U. S. Moved two places like mexico and canada, as know, discussing this. And you know, not too long ago, candidate trump was threatened a company like john deer with like a two hundred percent tariff in an effort to get their manufacturing that to the us.

And I guess the thing that we've been talking about reassuring for the last few years, right, as a related to supply change disruptions about cover and like, I mean, this is all really inflationary too, right? So think about this. You don't enough to throw terf on china, you can threaten them.

And I know some of the comments at best and had about the tear of gun. And he was speaking, this is earlier in the summer about how it's really of instrument right to get these folks you know, going in the direction that you want them to be. But with mexico in canada, it's a much harder sort of proposition, right? Because the idea of john dear, bringing manufacturing that here to the U.

S, well, all of that machinery becomes that much more expensive, right? The inputs to making that machinery, you know, the creation of that, the labor as a relates to soak. This is not easy stuff. And you think about that three arrows, and you think about some of the stuff that x think is setting up this global reordering of the economy near term and and must set this recently near term, there could be a lot of pain. So that could be a headwind to some of the things that at least the markets are interpreting right now.

It's really ancient is that know this market just continues to sort of do the levitation. I think R B C just had a note that they think that the S M P get the sixty six hundred and twenty twenty five, but they expect to five to ten percent correction prior to that, which you know a lot of people made similar comments, which is all well and good, and I think that makes sense. But the market doesn't seem to be up on that right now.

The vicks, we have back down either side of sort of fifteen or so. All fear seems to be taking out geopolitical risks, seemingly don't matter. Yields going higher, yields going lower, none of that seems to matter. This sort of levitation we continue to see in the five hundred sort of belies the fact that there are a lot of concerns out there that nobody y's really seeming to paying attention to.

So there's something that my mom has said for my entire life, especially around the holidays.

please get your act together.

I was always on the good life. You have to believe in order to receive. And the power of belief is very, very strong. And I think right now, to your point guide, no matter what the headwind is, no matter what the commentary, no matter what the risk, no matter how dislocated some of yelled seem from things, no matter how dislocated some stocks seem, no matter how overblown the belief that we are going to be OK and that the soft landing has happened and that everything is gonna get Better in twenty twenty five is completely overpowering anything else. And I think that will continue for a while.

So this, even if IT seems completely irrational, the belief, I think we'll get us there now about the Price targets that we've gotten and even the commentary that we might have a five to ten percent correction in between. Here's the other thing that happened in the last two years. In twenty twenty four, we did have two, five percentage corrections, right? The one in spring was a little less dramatic than the one in August, but we had two, five percent corrections.

So we got out of seemingly unscared as if they never happen, and then went up, reignited a rally on other side. So when people here we might have a five to ten percent correction, it's like, sure, go ahead. That's a great buying opportunity.

They're still this by the deep mentality we have not revisited. And I don't see us revisiting IT, especially before you and a time where Normal numbers will come into play. So a Normal correction in the S M.

P on an annual basis is about fourteen percent, thirteen or fourteen percent. We haven't seen something like that in a very, very long time. I think if we got above ten percent, people would start to freak out a little bit because we're just not conditioned for IT anymore. So it's this belief that we might have many corrections here and there, but we will get through. No problem.

Everything is fine. The market will continue up. One fascinating for myself is waiting for a video last week, seemingly the hand ringing that went on.

They report earnings last wednesday. The stock basically doesn't move in the subsequent days that makes the new all time high north of one fifty two. But here we are, trading below one forty.

I do not want to make a big deal this at all, but the lack of volatility round and video is interesting. And maybe for the first time, the lack of a really robust response to the upside is interesting as well. Now the S. M P, again, doesn't care today and videos lower today with the higher. However, I think that something to continue to watch yeah.

no doubt. I mean, the headline this morning is that amazon, we will mention this for months and months. Microsoft, amazon, a lot of their biggest customers are designing high and GPU for. Own data centers. And again, because the reliance on just in video has caused the pricing to go through the roof, right? We've talked about these seventy five percent gross margins in video has had crazy pricing pressure.

So maybe that's the headline that's causing some sort of i'd also mentioned that taiwan semis down two percent today on the heels of that, those two stocks which make up about thirty five percent of the S M etf that tracks semiconductor group. You are obviously very, very important there, the ones the way here, and i'll just mention this that I think tomorrow, after the clothes on tuesday, dell, which is obviously a big customer of invidia, is reporting earning. So I think that whole sort of ecosystem is interesting to keep an iron and share point that this stock could be acting this poorly a couple days after their earnings and the p in aztec are making new highs is definitely notable.

Could this diversion continue to go? sure. But at some point, you know, the way in video in taiwan semi go is the way that this whole ecosystems going to go. And then possible.

well, glad you mention deal, because this has been, I mean, again, this one hundred billion doll market cap company. This was the stock to trade, I want to say, then almost one hundred and eighty dollars in the spring of this year. IT subsequently was cut in half more than cut in half, by the way, like many stocks on August fifteen, bottom doubt.

And now we've seen almost an eighty percent rightly in this talk that nobody is talking about since that August th low. So i'm gonna honest with you. I don't know to set up in the earnings is good or if it's bad because given the run of of IT, really has to say something interesting.

And you know this seemingly was winning down on the back about we heard about super micro. But with that said, super micros probably rally you know six years seventy percent over the last week or so. So a lot of sort of messages out there.

My ground was also one of those names. Obviously, the memory that goes into you know these servers that go into the data centers, I mean, that's that had a very similar move. IT went from like you know one fifty eight in june down to, I want to say, low sixties in here IT.

Is that one of five? It's still trading below these levels that I got up to, I don't know, one fifteen or so. So this one is not acting particularly great. It'll be interesting to see what dell has to say their guidance stick around after the break, going to go through a slew of retail earnings that are out this week.

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We invite you to join eye connections to the upcoming event, salt eye connections in asia, taking place on november eleven through the thirteen th at mariner bay, sans singapore. Salt eye connections asia is the largest capital introductions event in the asia region, bringing together fifteen hundred leading asset allocators and alternative asset managers from around the world to explore more about eye connections events and gain access to their members. Only platform visit eye connections that I O so fine. The only one super APP for banking, borrowing and investing, or an industry leading A P Y, get great loan rates and trade stocks. So if I get your money right, banking products and loans offered by sofie bank N A N mls, six nine, six eight, nine, one road age and active investing products offers through sofi security L L C member S I P C.

Please, maybe you can help us on this. One guy has been talking a lot about this kind of a shape recovery as a relates to consumers, right? And we think about a dollar, jen, a calls, these stocks are trading like unholy death, right? So on the lower and consumer, but on the Operand, if you look at some of look at the best buy or some of these other department stores like a nord shrimp, they're acting pretty well.

And so we ve got a bunch of earnings this week. I think best behind will be really interesting as a relates to holiday spending. But we do have north jump, we have a nf.

There's a few others here. The one that I find really interesting, maces pulled their earnings for tomorrow morning, and employee was hiding a bunch of expenses to the two, maybe one hundred and fifty million dollars. And it's kind of this environment where you start seeing some of these sorts of, you know, I don't know if you want to call him rads, kind of come out.

So that's how we're kicking off this earning season. And then if you go back to last week, would target that down twenty percent move because of ory issues. I mean, IT might end up being a rocky sort of period is for retailers.

IT could be right now. The vibes is that people are spending and that holiday shopping is already off to a good start. And as we know, black friday starts in like october at this.

It's already happening. People have already been shopping for over a week for the holidays. So I want to read the definition of the wealth effect because I think that this is really important in your question.

The wealth effect is a behavioral economic theory suggesting that people spend more as the value of their assets rise, even if their income does not. So what does that mean? Why does that matter for a key shaped economy? Because who are the people that have all these assets?

It's the wealthy people that have the assets. So they're the ones watching their assets rise. Income perhaps hasn't changed, and we know that income growth has not kept pace with inflation over accumulative period.

So it's not the income that's changing things. It's not the income that's making consumer spend. It's the fact that watching their broken age account baLance rise continuously is helping people spend. So I think that's the big driver between this key shaped economy.

What I think we might see in this holiday shopping season is perhaps more inventory mismanagement, and i'm going to defend retailers here a little bit because IT is tough to try to forest that out, and they have to forest their inventories out further in advance, then they can really understand what consumers are gonna about IT. So if consumers change their tastes, change their behavior, change their patterns of where they even being, reuters have a really hard time keeping up with that from an inventory perspective. The thing about IT is, though we won't know about these inventory problems until january or february, so it's gonna take a while to find out which retailers did IT well in which ones did not. So the discounters you mentioned calls, calls is based in min ameni falls with scansion.

Fun fact, I summer there.

but some strange, very land locked city. I don't know that I would suggest that anyway, I I have a soft spot for calls, but you're right, dance. Some of those discounters have not done. And it's interesting though because the likes of walmart have done very well and costco has done pretty well. So some of the discounters are doing well, I think, because just managing their inventories, managing the flow of consumers through and really holding onto their s and and they have this base that is sticky and loyal, and I think that matters in an environment like this.

So quickly it's talk about coal since you mention IT from that wonderful town and in with consume. And this is a stock, by the way, that in two thousand nineteen, I think made in all time high, probably north vate hours. Not that that's all that interesting other than the fact that since then, it's been basically upper left, lower right.

And we're sitting here today around eighteen dollars. Then you have a stock that's basically trading at the same levels of laws that we saw in the fall last year and october last year and at some point, precariously close. The levels at a lot of stock saw obviously at huge cell off in the spring of twenty twenty does not trade well.

That's one end of the spectrum target sort of being middle target. A lot of their problems are target specific that just not Operating well. But when you have a walmart, which today made in all time high, a costco, which last week made in all time high, now seventy five percent of walmart customer basis earned a hundred thousand dollars or more, which I do think is interesting.

You throw a Williams sonoma, which is obviously the other side of the equation, making an all time high last week, and the dollar stores effectively trading at fifty two week close. I mean, that speaks to the wealth effect, that wealth casm that i've talked about for years. So I haven't to have nuts in if you're in the middle retail down right now, you're getting smoke. If you're in the lower end, you're getting smoke. But if somehow you can sort of garner that higher earner or sort of the middle ly earner that's trading down, you're in the catbird seat.

Is your point about the black right? Starting in late october IT means that we're going to have a heavily promotional sort of holiday season, right? And so I have to think that these retail hate having to report earnings the week of black friday, you know, right before thanksgiving and have to give because the target example that guide just gave is that IT is hard to manage your business right now with all of this economic uncertainty.

Know, obviously, that shifted over the last few weeks to something very positive. And I guess before we get out here, I just want to mention this. Maybe all of us can kind of point to one thing that we're watching this week.

You know it's not too often that you see the major indices have big gaps up or down. So the day after the election, we had one in the s MPI. I've wondered, we had one in the nazi.

And some of the single names that we look at, they were much bigger than that of the indices, right? And we know that most gaps are meant to be filled. Our main man of breaks and worth often brings charts about unfed gaps.

Well, here's the biggest one that we've seen since early August. And when you look at a lot of the single names that are driving a lot of the enthusiasm about the stock market, I mean, they are going ballot right now. And so you have to assume that you're pulling forward a bit of excitement. We're seeing multiple expansion here. And at some point, to guy, in your point that you guys made earlier about twenty five minutes ago, is that if you have rates stuck here in, in that fourth thirty in the ten year and you have this inverted yellow curve, the two ten at some point, i'm not sure how much more multiple expansion you can get if we do not get towards that three percent G D P growth.

Yeah and spoiler alert. In my twenty five outlook, you're going to see charts about multiple. And I did IT in the piece that I wrote about semiconductors and software last week.

There's been about one third of the Price gains that we've seen in semiconductors has been driven by multiple expansion. Now that means that two thirds of IT has been driven by earnings s growth, which is good. We want to see the fundamental support behind IT, but that other one third is really fragile, and that goes for any industry, any stock when it's driven by multiple expansion.

The market gives that back very quickly in a time when it's changed its mind about that particular growth metric. So be careful if when you're buying things that you can look at and say, I know that a lot of this has happened based on enthusiasm. If you're looking at a company, an industry that there hasn't been a lot of new news on in the last few weeks and you're chasing, you have to sit back in question now.

And this is a portable labor management thing, and everybody's going to do this a different way. But something that I would, I would tell people to try to do a lot of times, if you're gonna, just initiate a position, start small, do IT gradually, right? Just get in the position and then watch IT move over a couple weeks because you might get a Better opportunity on one certain day to add to that position. So don't throw all your chips at one basket on a day like today where everything is running and the stuff that running has already seen this parabolic move.

Smart damon said in rounds, you shouldn't ever really throw the chips. Number one. Number two, what i'm looking at here then it's gonna on wednesday, initial jobless claims at eight thirty and then pending home sales at ten A M. I know that seems sort out from left field, but as we be interesting to see what numbers get snuck in ahead of thanksgiving, the souls of the two things among some of the things that i'll be watching them.

and then I just throw this out there for me. I I know all of us are kind of watching this you know experiment with microstrip. Gy, so as we're speaking is down five percent. You be tried to get to that one hundred thousand mark and and IT seems like that was one that folks were really I get excited about if you saw a turn in crypto, if you saw a levered play on bitcoin like microstrip gy have. And I think, guy, you mention this on market all last week, that reversal that we saw from that huge gap.

You that might be a sign not too different than twenty twenty one that some of the excitement around high valuation text tag might be coming in if you have an invidia starting to really under perform. You know on a relative basis that as that in the S M P, those are the thing that i'm most focused on. But guy, with some excitement about the best in picking in the like here in the market reaction, I just say, how do you like them apples?

Oh, I think you did. They are speaking of maples. Liza b. Makes an unbelievable currently apple pie with a comed crusting rumble and all.

Maybe we put that in the, I don't know how many times i've made this pie, but yes, I I make IT every year. And every year I tried to figure out what type of apples are going to make a Better. And I egano zed over what kind of apples to put in. And you know what tastes the same, no matter what apples are.

Interesting, but it's always good. It's grandma's recipe.

I never changed IT. It's been the same for many, many years, and i'll keep IT forever before we get add of you.

And I want to ask you one question or you somebody that likes vanilla ice cream with your apple pie, you keep IT just you wanted to be pristine and its apple pie form.

I I wanted to be pure and pristine and its apple pie form, I might warm IT up a little bit. Occasionally there's ice cream involved, but if given the option, I usually keep IT just .

clean apple pie. But by the way, guy, we have A A special drop on wednesday of the market call wasn't to be with us at nine thirty A M. I can't say I wish we were going to at her home as we were doing this remote. Is the smell coming out of that of that of in, you know, me in men, little apple, a little nice pastry, that sort of thing. So nine thirty A M special live market called with tech geeks, just a .

matter before we smell vision, which would be problematic for some homes. But that's for another show, eliza, the Young time. I stand they then.

Thank you. We will see you soon later today on the market call. So enjoy the rest, stern folks. Thanks again to all presenting sponsors C M E group eye connections, fact set and so far, if you like what you heard, make sure you had follow and leave us a review. IT helps other people find the show, and we also wanted hear from you as a contact. At risk reversal dot com, the rivaw ves are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited in any profit you might have made. This communication is not a mediation or offered by cell or retain any specific investment or service.