Can't Fight This Feeling
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Visit eye connections that I O welcome to the undertake podcast this wednesday before thanking, giving a special day for us. We're thankful for all of you. Then I am thankful for you how you do.

I'm doing great to that point, guy. We've been doing this for nearly four years, and we had some amazing, amazing support from so many readers, listeners, viewers. We are thankful for you guys sticking them out with us.

And they're not just words. They are sincere, genuine thoughts. Danites are also thankful for you. Beautiful ten, you have going there.

You guys got to get down the floor more often. You was great seeing you guys last .

tweet up and you emerge Victorious and the program once again, congratulations at two time. You are now defending champion. E impressive for you. This has been an interesting weekend. Again, we're on wednesday before thanksgiving, but a lot of macro stuff DNA came out this week, specifically today, wednesday and that sort of on top of some of these nominations we've heard for cabinet post and different posts in the incoming trump administration. So what's interesting is one set of sort of data is being offset by some of these nominations. In other words, the markets looking at some of these appointments and saying, you know what, this is a lot Better than we thought, which in some ways of many yields go lower, flying the face of some inflation data that some might say is in line to slightly harder.

So let's start there. Yeah so we got the all important PC number today, which court number was two point eight percent, which is quote in line, but that's up obviously. And so we are training overall towards that two percent.

But I think people just relieved that I wasn't hier. So we're okay there. Best and being nominated as treasury secretary made yields go down because he does believe in fighting the deficit. So we got a little bit of that. We got the ceasefire right now between israel and hezbollah.

Think you took the last year off of gold and bitcoin to a degree, right? But then the same time the tariff stuff that's going on I heard they announced about IT and and the nomination to other important posts, which trump has made clear that his agenda a this time is not just to use these terrors as an negotiating tool, but actually to follow through and these follow up nominations of has set and others to me present bigger chAllenge going forward. So a lot of moving parts here.

But I think one thing was clear, guy, is that golden bit point I think had been rilling. We did see geopolitical premium come out of that along with the vx on the sea. R, C, star is great news for everyone. Don't don't get me wrong, but there's a lot going into this new year. They're ongoing to have to deal with on the des of people need be paying attention.

Now in no question about IT. And you look at these appointments and I think the markets collectively taking a side of relief on the other side of, again, data that is in line. But you know some people the hawks will say, know it's moving up, it's trending in the wrong direction. But you know, you've made a point a number of times regardless of what the whole suggests about the economy, there's no denied that the economies been hanging in, in a pretty meaningful way. We just got a GDP print, the sort of illustrates that and and gavi zis .

that yeah i've never seen over the last year such a disconnect between what the markets are suggesting is going on in the economy versus what the people in this country. We talked about IT again and again for the Better part of the last year is that you binds approval rating as a relatives to the economy was just so bad.

And the reason why the democrats lost the house, the senate and the White house was because a lot of folks thought the economy was really bad, right? And if you look at what's going on right now, the economy seems pretty good. You know you think about where unemployment is, you think about where GDP is, if you think about where inflation is kind of bottom out.

And again, I know we've been talking about the accumulated effects of inflation, right? So you think about all that stuff. If you're a market participant, you you buy all of IT, you you buy all of IT going into twenty twenty five, but a lot of folks feel the pinch on IT.

And i'll just make one point is like I think the high of a thousand gas at the pump about a year and a half ago was north of five bucks and now is very close to three box. You don't mean so the economy is in a pretty good spot as long as companies continue to be able to cut maintained margins a bit, right? We don't have any major shocks to the system from a geopolitical standpoint that obviously puts some pressure on supply chains in the light and IT could be energy was one of the issues or so IT seems like things are okay.

That's all going to leave at that mean. But like I suspect in a lot of those consumer confidence numbers, we just had the highest print in a year. So really do line up with the elector where they are on which side of the offence. We've seen that again and again. So I would expect consumer confidence to hang in there too, if the reason why the dams got voted out was because the economy and now you have the have all three major points of government IT probably hangs in there a bit unless we see some shot to unemployment or inflation. Again.

the cross current move. Talk about this now for years similar, but they continue to grow across current, and they come in different ways, shapes and form standing. You know, I look at the bond market, and again, I think ten yields, one up to four and a half percent.

And I think edit a couple weeks ago, that meant the field curve would probably step into the tunable, maybe eighteen or so basis points. I might be off by one or two subsequent move down. We can now got done about four a quarter percent.

We've seen a reconversion of the yield curve. I don't really know what to make of IT, but i'll tell you, regardless of what yields have done, banks have been on fire now. The X, L, F is not the best constructed etf opinion.

But with that said, as we're sitting here on this wednesday, north of fifty one dollars is made a new all time high. So the bond market is telling a story or it's trying to figure things out. I think the banks have said, you know what? We got this we have figured out. So thoughts on that.

Yeah, the banks are trading, I think, off of a few things. One is the opening up of the markets. M, A lower revelatory pressures on them in general.

And is the markets move hie. By nature, trading moves up and and a moves up. I, P, S, will start to come. So I think it's on the of that mostly. On that, I want to make a comment about dance said about the people that voted in the last election and what the market is actually telling us.

So the people that feel that the economy is bad probably made up the bulk of the voting that have gone on the policies that we're seeing more aris one is going to benefit. The opposite is going to benefit the wealthy. So you have this growing by forces in the marketplace that are seeing.

There's just two from worlds going on. So when you see tax cuts and that policy changes, that's not kind of in my open trickle into the people that actually voted in the last election. I just get that out of the way as well.

So I just think we're so much vultus movement of cop, as dana said, bid four offered at five on the ten year. And I do think that the best ent news was the big factor that's been driving. I think people had been shorting more bonds.

I ously as I got up to four and half. They can. Here we go, four, nine percent going to get to four point in something they didn't happen.

So I think is to see quite short covering rally here. I think the again, to make a point, the dangers made the economy. And guy we will talk about is straw. I get still supportive of the stock market. What that means for rates, I don't know, but one thing that has been clear catalyst for all markets, including wall street banks, has been credit spreads.

And if credit spreads continue to remain tightly like this, you're just going to see continuous dead issue and continuous deals in the ABS market and consumer credit, and you can't fight that if you're a big bear. So this week, you've got a ride with IT. So that's the other piece of this.

That thing is happening as a matter of money has been flowing into private credit. It's been into some of these dead als, others. So I think that's a big not talked enough about singing on then.

And you've talked about banks and know outside for myself, I have found some of the moves a little outsized and in terms of valuations, sort of leads me scratching my head. And the valuation I look at always this Price to book and Price to tends will book. And some of these names, specifically in a jp Morgan, i've got themselves to levels with last previous civic sis.

So that's now sixteen or so years ago, which listen, maybe IT does make sense. The context of this new economy, quote unquote, but you know what? I don't think necessarily they are deserved tive of those valuations.

I think the markets come that realization. With that said, you know, danny says you can't really fight this at this point as much as I want try to punch holds in IT. The market suggested banks to the place to be you know financials in general banks specifically.

There's not a Better example of a group within the stock market that are suggesting that the forward you know cut of performance of the economy is in good shape. And so danny just mentioned the IPO window reopening the deregulation aspects.

A lot of folks are what kind of cause a great deal of ma, right? So if borg's dam, if you're golden sax N G P Morgan for that matter, you know you're going to be in a good spot as IT relates to increase capital markets activity. But is that Price in where the stocks are? You just mention valuation.

We haven't seen those sort of valuations in a sector that has primarily been viewed as a utility, right, especially with the either regular ory action we've seen since the financial crisis. And you know, guy, you see this all the time. If you want to look at the X, L, F and bercheny the number one to holding and then you have J, P, and you have a handful of the money center bank, look at what's n on with bircher today.

I mean, it's raging. It's up two and a half percent. It's making a new all time high, right? What is that saying to you about a guy who's been selling some of his biggest holdings?

I think you cut apple and back amErica and half over the last three to six months or something like that. You made the point guide. There's what? Over three hundred billion dollars and cat sitting on their baLance. eet. So what is burger telling you about what he thinks about the state of the economy? And like, so they seem to be a different ends of why these companies or why these stock are making new hodden highs.

Yeah, now the burger moved again leaves me scratch my head a little bit. And overwriting thing for me is the fact that is huge, as said, broke your half way, now has three hundred and twenty five billion dollars of cash on their baLance. Eet, which is a record for the company.

Some will say, I think the optimists will say, you know what? Warn buffett is positioning the company for his at some point, is leaving the company in his successor to be in a place where here he can manage IT in IT in the way that they want to manage IT. I would say that you know, he falls the same rules that has been following the last four, five decades, and it's no different now that I was that say in the thousand, thousand and seventy.

So he obviously sees, but the market doesn't see the same thing. And what he seize, by the way, comes in the form of something we've talked about dozens of times. This buffett indicator, which has got north of two hundred and two percent, you know, something that when he gets to one hundred and thirty percent, he gets concerned n and of course, the will share five thousand divided by GDP.

So take that as IT will. Now with this GDP print, you know maybe that's come in a little bit to two hundred percent. The point is it's still elevated. So there's clearly something going on there. But again, the market doesn't seem to care about valuations to those types of indicators right now.

So we're talking about flows into the X, L left. Let's give mind, the burger is the top X, L component percent. So the passive market continually makes you ask questions about the active market fundamentals. In this case, don't over think that I guess we're going to be the beneficiary of allocation into financials, whether they own tea bills or accidental petroleum or rao s, in my thing.

you know, something happened earlier this week. And again, it's fascinating to me in video reported last wednesday, they saw week ago today. Today is wednesay before thanksgiving.

Again, for your folks listening on friday, it's important to point that out. But nearly in video Price action since earnings report hasn't been particularly good outside that initial move higher the next day. But then yesterday on tuesday, then we saw earnings out of dell.

We ve from work day. These are not small companies and these are sort of ten gentle to that world. I tell you the commentary out of dell and daney can speak to this as well. Non linnie demand that is concerned. Yeah well, IT goes back .

to actually microsoft earnings a few weeks ago, right? When you think about yeah microsoft on google, meta, they all came in with you know capex that was at least in line or Better than expected. You think about those four companies that make up about forty percent of in videos s revenues, you know prior to in videos s quarter.

And I think we talked about this a little bit last week. This next ship, the black, well, they were talking about some delays. They were talking about some snacks and implementation, right? And so that was one of the reasons why the stock wasn't able to get going for the first time in a very long time post results.

IT closed flood on the day since then, since the highs a week before that, down thirteen percent. You you think about that, I went from a three point six trillion dollar cab company, is lost a few hundred billion dollars. And I don't see any reason why IT probably shouldn't stop going down until it's down about twenty or so.

It's been such a concentrated trade. There's been very few ways to express a positive view on generate A I in the chip sector. And we've talked about the S M, T.

Of the traces. Can that thing has been stuck in the month. So aside from taiwan semi and NVIDIA, there's really been very few ways to play.

Maybe broadcom has been in there. And then I think about what you just said. S M, L. A few weeks ago had one of the worst ford king numbers I ve seen in a long time. They were talking about strong demand.

And for general AI, what do they do? They make the machines that go into the taiwan semiconductor fabs, right, that make the chips really bad stuff there. On the PC front, that's what they were talking about, what they're saying that A I is been a bright spot.

Well then I take IT forward a little bit to what you just mentioned here. It's dell. It's huit. It's also work day. Some of these other, you know, snowflake had a really good court to that, up thirty percent.

They're all talking about this really good demand for A I products within their ecosystems, right within their products and services. But something has to give at some point because i'm looking down, down thirteen percent on the day i'm looking at you let down thirteen percent on the day. I'm looking at workday, down eight, nine half percent on the day.

These are all stocks that seemingly were meant to benefit from gender. They eye. So I think about that.

There is something going on here. Then the last one is just microsoft hasn't seen an uptick for about three months or so. You know he means so people aren't buying their service up right here.

And I would add to that just to guys point that there was a cheap Operating officer, dell, that said last, the business will not be lining AR, especially as customers try to figure out where they going to be in A I and he basically said that you're going to have delays, obviously, an implementation of black well, that so he really comes out of this people that we're playing in video and some large enterprise oft companies for A I that felt they got a little too expensive.

We've seen an allocation kind of out of those names and probably taking trying to find other ways, whether it's dell AMD or what I might be. And you look at H P new was last kind of as you know, well, people don't think of H P early as in A A I play. However, some of the PC sales are related A I, and there's just not big enough to make a difference.

So that talks getting a full package. So when you try to force this A I narrative and you kind of some of the traditional legacy companies, you going go go though so far, so eventually, where do you run and hide or how do you express this trade? I could argue that you can stay in the invitees of the world and feel like you have a pure play, but to try to associate that these other names has been a false aron. And you're seeing that as we get these scoring.

one name that I left out guy was calm o so they OK and you .

have read my mind, right? So step dragon.

right, which was the chip that most of power, a lot of these copilot pcs, I don't know you guys watch foobar weekend. There is step dragon and copilot PC commercials, I feel like on every other kind of special blog. And they gave really poor guide guy.

So again, if you're starting to to put some of these data points together, they don't really suggest a really healthy environment in the stock market. You only mean right now in the stock market, and I suspect you see some digestion, you guys use the term delf o use nonlinear demand. And that's one of the biggest takeaway that I have from NVIDIA. I don't think it's that they are supply constrain right now. I think that they see you know some sort of compression in I T budgets in twenty twenty five deals.

Last comment, which worth mentioning, which raps all up, was that much of the AI system growth was already reflected in the four hundred and a half billion dollars pelle of future orders. That to me.

he says at all the part sells used to say you are what your record is, right? And I understand what he means by that. So if you're two and eight, you're two and eight city football team. And right now, you know, you look at the market at the S N P, effectively all time hires. And people saying, you know, you are with the S N, P, says you are.

But if you look below the surface sometimes, and your record might be sort of, I don't know, masking some of the ills and you mention quite come down, let's just take a look at that real quick. I mean, this was a stock, by the way, that was two hundred and twenty dollars stock in june is now at critical support. When I say critical support is one fifty four level or so is the same level we bound from in April of this year, again, in August of this year.

And here we are again. You mention sml. This was an eleven hundred dollars stock around that same period in june. July IT is now six hundred and fifty dollars micron, which is everybody's darling.

Now back through one hundred dollars on the downside, looking like he wants to round trip the entire move we've seen over the last couple of quarter. So there are a number of semi names out there that are trading like something is wrong. And then you look at the overall market and say everything is great. No, it's important sometimes to sort to get the entire picture, make your decisions based on that because I would submit then the broader market is saying one story below the surface is sung an entirely different.

And I think that's a great point. If you think about the N D X on today, this is kind of like, you know, right before noon or so is down about one percent. The S M P is down about twenty bips right now.

So it's of telling that story that we're starting to see some people peel out of some of these names that have been such a big performers. You know the nx. And as one hundred, we know that the top, you eight, nine names make up what forty percent of the way to that.

So that's up twenty two percent on the year versus an asp that still up about twenty six percent very near. It's all time hires, and we made this point a couple times. Two of the that video is about twenty five percent of the performance of the S M P.

Five hundred, right? So if you think about that, you think about three hundred and seventy five percent gains on the year. The likelihood NBA will put up a number like that again, the Price action in some of the rest of them, magg cement, that they're not going to be able to continue this kind of great neck pace.

IT doesn't suggest that, that's likely to happen in twenty twenty five. So we spend some time talking about banks. We spend some time talking about crude oil and what that might be for energy.

I mean, you put IT all together, there's just not enough there. They kind of suggest that we're onna have another twenty five percent plus year. Except for the fact that we have a lot of strategies, we are expecting high single digit ten percent year for twenty twenty five. So again, I think there's a lot of disconnects as far as the dependence on tech in general to kind of continue .

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Eye connections is the world's largest capital introduction platform in the alternative investment industry. Eye connections membership only platform brings together the asset management community, providing allocators and managers with the opportunity to connect both physically and virtually with an impressive network of over four thousand allocators and nine hundred managers, their community overseas and astounding forty eight trillion dollars and sixteen trillion dollars and assets, respectively. Eye connections is also the driving force behind the alternative investment industries most renowned in persons events.

We invite you to join eye connections to the upcoming event, salt eye connections in asia, taking place on november eleven through the thirteen th at mariner bay sands, singapore. Salt eye connections asia is the largest capital introductions event in the asian pacific region, bringing together fifteen hundred leading asset allocators and alternative asset managers from around the world to explore more about eye connections events and gain access to their members. Only platform visit eye connections that I O with Robin hood gold, you don't need a silver spoon to eat up the financial favors of the one percent.

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But this is interesting to me, microstrip. Gy, and I think everybody's familiar with Michael seller. And by the way, we've reached out to him.

We going to try to get him either on the on tape pod casters market call the next couple of weeks, but microstrip gies in september this year was a hundred doors stock a few weeks ago. This is a name, the trade, not even a few days, a week or so ago. This is the stock, the traded up to five hundred and forty two dollars.

You can do the math in terms the scope of the move over the same period of time. Danny, bitcoin is probably up maybe forty percent or so. So it's fascinating to me how levered this stock is.

Now if you want to talk about volatility again on november twenty to show this five hundred and forty two dollars stock microstrip gies that traded down to earlier this week, about three hundred and twenty five, three hundred and thirty dollars. The moves are staggering and its sort of flies in the face of what's going on a bitcoin, which is down, but not down nearly to that extent. So are you seeing anything in this, the universe, that suggest things are out of wet?

Well, you're come. And I don't think the vx is the market necessarily, the more because you've matching a lot of names that are very, very vital. And so the vx in general, I get IT is correlated to the S F P.

But under the surface, I think the vics is very surprised. Microsoft gies was able to Price a three billion dollar convert with zero percent interest. Let me just be very clear. So the ability raise money, the marketplace to go out and let with levered bitcoin play per say is very telling.

I'm not saying that's a sign of the top, but just put that in the background that, that's unheard of in the reason that investors are accepting zero percent is because the options on microstrip gies have so much premium, there are so volatile that is basically pays for itself the conversions six hundred and seventy two dollars on discover. So let me just put that to be here. So I think the moves in bitcoin have been exacerbated by etf growth by options now that tend to come out every single day on bitcoins and adding a lot more volatility in the bitcoin space.

And so I think that's a little bit of what you're seeing. You're going to see a bigger tail in terms of all. I think I because of that.

And so microstrip gies listen, people have tried to effectively thought microstrip gies go long bitcoin. The thread on the service seems like it's massive. Good luck is little way to and a blast from the past citron research the middle all this comes show report on microstrip gies based making evaluation call. Now this there's anything that there is going on. So lot of noise there to sit through, but volatility and of the service is much higher than what the vixi tell them.

This is a great example. It's not on the company, I think, of anything. And guy, you've done Michael seller for a while.

You've interviewed him a bunch. He's been on the podcast a handful of times over the last four years. This is one of the most committed people to uh, some sort of view that I have ever seen.

He took an Operating business that he is started what thirty years ago or something like that. And he is kind of transformed IT into, like danny just said, this levered bitcoin play. And you know, we had a mongo, I want to say, twenty twenty one.

He spent fifteen minutes with us talking about his skepticism about bitcoin for years until he started to figured that out. So he's taken microstrip gy. He's bought bitcoin, whether it's one hundred percent, whether was down fifty percent, he continues to raise money at very favorable terms to do that.

IT reminds me a little bit of those triple levered. You only mean index etf that we see. So at ninety billion dollars, IT is basically trading at three times the value of the bitcoin that he knows.

And just to the point about volatility, guys, if you go out and you look at options in the january exploration, right, so we can say a little less than two months from now with the stock at three ninety, the at the money statal on jan seventeen expiration is forty five percent of the Price of the stock. So the strong means you take the call premium, you take the put premium. Yeah, adam, together you divide by the strike and you get forty six percent.

So the options market is nearly impossible to play from the long side unless you are so convicted. Now a lot of folks have been kind of drawn to the idea of the spread being long bitcoin short microstrip. But I think that's something that we would call the window ker because you've had this sort of disconnect already. And the options market is not giving you a lot of ways to do that.

If you're out there and you think bitcoin is gonna de back down and let's say sort seventy two thousand. And so the level that was prior resistance, I mean, that would suggest the current levels that you know microstrip gies could move another thirty five or forty percent to the downside based on the math that we just talked about. So buckle up for that one because it's not going away.

Something else that was interesting this week that happened, I believe, on tuesday was president by and talking about wanting medical care to pay for the G. L. P.

One drugs. And you know, I think that sort of thrown out there. I don't think that's really gonna happen or can happen, but IT is out there then. And some of these names sort of got about most specifically in eli lilly, which by the way, traded down about seven hundred and twenty five hours of the prior all time high that we saw a month or so ago. That move has been pretty dramatic, but it's sort of a quite a bit of a bit on the back of that.

Yeah, no doubt. And it's been a two horse race, right? So it's lily in a nova test on the space. And I think at one point to nine market caps at the recent high a few months ago was one point three, one point four trillion.

We've kind of categorized IT in that sort of G A I, sort of megatron space, right? When you think about the disruption that these two companies have the potential to do to the health care space overall. And so medicare, medicate, paying for IT, there's a whole host of pressure being put on different large corporations to kind of pay for these source of drugs, but the stock market didn't care.

IT basically said that these things know when they're at all time hides. A few months ago, a lot of the good news was Price, then they're expecting some sort of competition from orals or once monthly shots verses the ones weekly shots. And what's fascinating to me is that I lilly, while IT came down a lot to its recent kind of fifty two week lows eh, kind of going back to the spring, still up thirty five percent on the year, novo round tripped its entire move.

Not too different of a conversation that we just had about many stocks in the general of the ee ecosystem. You just mentioned micron and dell and some of these other names, right? That i've kind of come all the way back. So this one to me is more about sentiment as a relates to some of the drivers of the markets this year. And so you can throw on, well, might be this and might be that competitions form, by the way, identity, but from a psychology sample, from a sentiment standpoint, would you put that in the same category as we just were talking about many of the names in the genre of a iec system and just how much the concentration affects the psychology of investors? Yeah.

the middle of all this engine had poor results on a potential competing drugs. So that's obviously a big deal engine. Sc, and he hit on that today.

That's another leg up novo here. But listen, bints proposing, obviously medicare cover the drug medicate covers in thirteen states already. So there's a trend there.

There's no question that if you were analyze this or required to five to ten years, you can make arguments that to be less demand for instant as adults of these drugs. I'm not going to try to get into that here. I think that the evaluation perspectives was not taking A.

Look here and a lilly where the thing trades. I still think it's probably a great place to be. It's to buy the dip stock right now, I think whether for the next administration or not.

But again, your point, if you're trying to express a theme in a trade, whether it's A I weight loss drugs understand and how crowded there is not many ways to express IT. So you're onna trade these things at a premium. And when negative news happened to something happens, you Better ready to deal with the volatility. But i'll say that I still believe that big drawdowns and these names are playing buying opportunities because that, to me, is still very strong.

And I think to help you guys out, you've been talking about the valuation and lilly for a long time, and you follow this space for a long time. And when you think about a stock like lilly trading at what eight, nine hundred billion, our market cap IT topped out on A P E basis like forty five times or something like that.

And I think one of the takeaway from the two quarters that both these companies reported is that novo, their forward guidance was less than folks expected. IT was less than twenty percent in twenty twenty five, and lily kept their guidance in tech and therefore, that valuation premium one verses the other and then novo giving IT all back. So to me, that's a big part of the story. When you have growth trends start to turn the other way in something in a concentrated two horse race like this, you're going to shoot first h questions later and that I think what happened over the last .

few months or so, no question about IT in terms of villa lilly, and i'll go back to their quarter. And if you think about IT, I think that was David ricks was being interviewed or during the conference call of get exactly IT was, but he was really unable to articulate the reasons why they were seeing some of the slowdowns or disruptions in terms of production and some of the questions city got, he was unable to answer.

And you know, when you're at that kind of valuation and the CEO is seemingly grass being for answers is a self first, ask questions later. So I think you little to danny point is probably found a bit of level support, but valuations are still despite the move lower. Don't make a lot of sense to me.

With that said, the other big story this week deny but dam first was retail. And again, kudos to danny moses real quick. I will tell you that in twenty twenty one target was north of the two hundred and fifty hours stock, probably a market cap of a hundred and ten billion dollars or so.

Since that time, the stock has been cut in half over the same period of time, walmart has doubled. So think about that for a second. One has been cut in half, the other one has been doubled. Not just the math, but the retail space is clearly then they have to have nuts. So thoughts on that.

yeah. And I think that retail is two themes that we've been talking about a lot lately, right? So we have this kind of cash pe economy, right? We see have A A middle to lower and consumer that having a very difficult time. But then on the higher and you're kind write all up in there. And then when you think about tariff s in general and how some of these retailers are going to navigate an uncertain world as a relates to we started off the week, I think that trump, you know tweet out some stuff about know getting more aggressive with china.

But then because china's economy is so much weaker than the first time that trump was in office, right, we might have some sort of deal, but a lot of us retailers of thinking about, okay, we just had this kind of port strike issue, right? And some of them did a Better job than others with inventory the way they were ordering. Well, target was a clear example of this execution in around the porch dde situation, right? So might we have a similar situation with companies trying to get product in front of a potential increased trade war and in more difficult terriers? And so to me, retail seems like a really difficult to be because we've already seen hyper promotional sort of environment IT seems like, you know black friday sales go a week to have earlier every year, right? And so I think it's going to a continue to be a spot for retailers for those two main reasons that I just mentioned.

It's a hasn't have not here. It's not hard to figure who's winning and who's losing just to go with some these names. Yeah, no one's buying nice stationary items best by amazon's killing them obvious bases.

That's the issue, obviously, with in in their accounting issue. But I will tell you that one of the drivers for mazes has been their delivery business. Now turns out that the last two years, that was as problems.

Without that expLoring goods, people want experiences active lifesize on noble job, beats, win north stream, all things being equal. What's to invest in nordrum rack, which is the lower and area, obviously, that has growth cold stores. And just for people out there, when you see movements and executives the day before they reported through, the night before they nounce ed transition of CEO, you actually the opportunity to trade the stock.

And after hours, the earnings came out. I was a disaster. I've said this along in this type of kind. If you haven't figured out a strategy within retail that satisfies obviously, you know market demand is over th, you're in trouble.

It's going be really hard thing here to fix my on the fly from a merchandizing perspective, from a strategy perspective because walls, Martin, amazon are eating everybody up who is vulnerable in my opinion. So continue to watch. That is a literary music.

Yeah no, listen, i'll say this to type on the retail store general, for example, which is not a small company. This was a two hundred and sixty doll stocks in the fall of twenty twenty two, now trading seventy five dollars. And by the way, all through covered, if you think about IT, these were stores that were seemingly winning only to find themselves losing in a significant way.

Dor gen is probably trading at levels we haven't seen since two thousand and seventeen or they are about so the Daniel and dance point about the even to have nuts, you could see IT just in terms of these stocks. These lower and stocks are getting crush walmart winds to that seventy five percent of walmart customer base now earns a hundred thousand dollars or more, which is a record, and that's for immediate different reasons. But it's important to point out target losses because they're getting middle.

They don't really have the product mix. Costco in this environment and the high end to do extraordinary really well is manifested to a name like Williams 在 oma， which had a twenty five or thirty percent move a few trading sessions to go to the upside. So it's a fascinating retail landscape, and I think that speaks to none.

One of they have and to have nuts in the space, but they haven't to have not in terms of the popular of the united states before we get added here and then sort to talk about IT, tarifa is obviously a big story. They were big story into the election and subsequent, they've been a big story on the back. And we're seeing stocks moved.

G M. Had a tremendous move to the downside earlier this week on the back of that. So danny, in terms of the implementation of them or the use of them is sort of a bargaining chip. Where do you come down on this entire thing?

All right, that was the auto street took the brunt of canada. Mexico, obviously is part of this twenty five percent tariff h and using that is negotiating tool to stop immigration. So listen, i'm to try to get all that noise out of the way and focus on fundamentals and believe the cooler heads will prevail.

That being said, you're gonna get a couple multiple points knocked off of these companies in proven differently. And I think they just speak to the volatility in general of trying to figure this out. I have no idea what to across what terabits mean in china, who's gna benefit, who i'm going to see reports them as you can kind of figure IT out, the market tends to be pretty efficient and see through a lot of this stuff.

But again, I would use these these opportunities, if you understand these companies in the bottom up, to take advantage of noise, which may hurt these stocks in in general, thinking that these companies and management will be able to offset those to a degree. But this is highlights is how difficult this is going to be in this and to separate the noise from the actual what's can happen. And all highlight, again, we talked about the opening of the show.

The people that are now being nominated to put in place to advice are very different than last time. There was a real gender here that people want to get through, that the tram ministration wants to get through. So I think less negotiating potentially and actually might actually happen this time, I would tend to expect a little more about so yeah.

I take the other side of that on the terrorists. I think what trump needed to do to get reelected, he had to go out and make some really of policy initiatives that he was going to deliver. On day one, we heard IT again and again, mass deportation, huge tariff s you know, on china, a handful of other things on the social and the fact threatening canada and mexico.

You don't mean who are two big trade partners of us. I just think that it's likely to be water down. We talk about like a best and think about what happened in the bond market the day after, right? He was kind of nominated, right? We said yields go down considerably.

So I suspect that a lot of this stuff is public and and maybe i'm wish casting is not as bad as we think. And i'll just make the point again that I made just about five minutes ago. I think china is in such a weaker position right now.

I think the likelihood of some sort of muted sort of situation probably makes more sense. So that's my two sense. And I think that sa are gone to prevail about what an increased trade war means for our economy at a time where we can all agree is pretty good.

But I wouldn't take too much to kind of get things gone over the edge. And if you want to focus on unemployment rate and the way guy you get to a much more aggressive unemployment towards four and half percent is put our manufacturer and. Situation of a trade war put consumers in a position where they are going to put off purchases to the point of what best. But I just said that when you get start to get job cuts, and that's when you see an economy slow down a great deal.

Energy is always a story, danny. And you know it's interesting you look at the next on mobile. I think there was a severan upgrade earlier this week.

I mean, axon at one eighteen or so was within a few hours of its prior all time high like IT should be, by the way, with a broader market doing as well as it's been doing. But no energy is one of these sort of fits and starts stories. I don't think people can fully get their arms around. I know i've been struggling with that. What you thoughts on .

the energy sector? He has great oracle embarras, which we can add to the show notes, which talks about how the all industry has been using technology, you can call A I if you want to, in for years. Point fact, in the permanent basin in the last twelve years, they've cut their cost production from where the break room is nine dollars an oil to forty.

So you're trying to figure out, can these oil companies be profitable when oil drops below sixty five? Where is that line drawn between? Okay, oil can be hurt.

So something to think about as these companies become more efficient going forward, and are they gonna want to keep pumping oil in a certain Price and over. So there are much more efficient and smarter about how they produce. So something to really think about there is great article.

Listen, I continue to like eggs on and show around here city with I think IT was city grouped up a greater up on and is a place to go if money comes out of other sectors. I still think IT has a lot to catch up. It's outperformed oil over all over the last several weeks.

I think that will continued. You know, holiday short week, but a lot happened this week. Clearly were in for some interesting times in terms of some of the rotation stand in the following weeks.

But before that, just wanted ish. Everybody have really happy thanksgiving again. Thanks for joining us all these weeks. And now all these years, we are thankful for you. Enjoy the time with your family and friends and dan .

over to you yeah else echo everything you just said and know we are very thankful we have a great, great, dedicated group of thousands and thousands of people who tune in for this content on a daily basis. So we show up every day. You show up every day.

We really appreciate you. And we're going to end this year strong in the december, be recharged and ready to go for twenty twenty five. So thanks to everybody.

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