Should Old Investments Be Forgot?
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On the Tape.

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SoFi, get your money right. Banking products and loans offered by SoFi Bank N.A., NMLS 696891. Brokerage and active investing products offered through SoFi Securities, LLC, member FINRA, SIPC. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the final On The Tape podcast of 2024. Hard to believe, but yet here we are on this Monday, December 30th, as we head into the

The New Year. I'm joined by my dear friend, Danny Moses. Danny, how are you? Happy almost New Year, Guy. It is, and it's been a remarkable year for a lot of different reasons. And, you know, I'm going to start in an unusual way because, you know, we obviously, not a political show, but obviously everybody heard the news over the weekend that Jimmy Carter passed away. And I mention that because your family had a relationship with him, and I think that would be a great way to start.

great story for our listeners and our viewers. But one thing I'll say is, as much as people want to downplay his presidency, he did more than a couple of things. But through the lens that we look at, he actually was the president that appointed Paul Volcker. I don't think a lot of people remember that. That obviously bled into the Reagan administration. Everybody talks about Reagan and Volcker and conquering inflation, but it was actually Jimmy Carter that appointed him number one.

one. And number two, a lot of the deregulation that we theoretically enjoy today was sort of at the foot of Jimmy Carter's administration. So people want to mock his presidency and stuff, and that's fine. That's within people's rights to do, but there's no way you can say anything but

amazing accolades and glowing accolades in terms of the human being that he was. Yeah, and had to follow kind of the Nixon-Ford time period as well. So inherited some issues there, to your point, inherited inflation. So my story is that many people know this, but my family's from Georgia.

That's why I was born in Athens. Go dogs. My dad was from Americas, Georgia, and that's where his parents settled. And my grandfather, Jack Moses, owned a women's clothing store called Jason's. And the reason it wasn't Jackson's is because that name was taken everywhere. So it was Jack and sons, but it was Jason's. Anyway, Rosalind Carter's inauguration dress came from his store, which was the next town over Plains, Georgia, very small area. And so they got to know the Carter's

And my grandfather, Jack Moses, was a big fan of Carter's. And so I got to meet them over time. Didn't know them that well. Actually knew the grandmother, Lillian Carter, better than her son, Jimmy. But anyway, so and being from Atlanta and the area and everything. So, yes, he was he had a big influence on the state of Georgia, was friends with the family and so forth. So, yes, rest his soul. And I think there's going to be a National Day morning on January 9th, I believe.

is a date that's been set. Yeah, well-deserved. And to your point, again, I mean, we should all try to strive to live more like Jimmy Carter, putting other people first, not only him, but his wife as well. I mean, they put others first for the lion's share of their lifetime. And the fact that he won a Nobel Prize, I want to say in the 1980s, maybe early 90s, I'm probably off. It doesn't matter. But I think he's one of

three presidents in United States history to win a Nobel Prize. So rest in peace, Jimmy Carter, without question. I wanted to start there, but now I want to sort of make an awkward segue to what we saw this year. And that comes in the form of something you and I've talked about seemingly forever. These passive flows clearly dominate the market.

It's hard to combat the market with a negative view or short stance or posture when you have those kinds of dollars pouring in. Obviously, on a daily basis, you have these inflow of dollars vis-a-vis passive investing into these ETFs. And one of the reasons I believe, and I'm not suggesting I'm right, but I believe that some of these

mega cap stocks do so well on the back of the fact that they're in so many ETFs. I think Apple, I want to say almost 400 ETFs have Apple as one of their top 15, one five holding. So they win in the world of passive investing. So speak to that. Yeah, well, it's no surprise that what the stock market up is what BlackRock is basically up, which is the reason the markets up are because of flows. It's just a matter of supply and demand to your point.

If you break down the mix, I think it was over what, $1.2, $1.3 trillion that came in the market or something like that in terms of passive. There actually were fixed income flows were actually stronger on a percentage growth basis from their base, right? So equities dominated fixed income, but that's something to watch too here, Guy, as we kind of, we always talked about potential flaws within fixed income ETFs. The other thing was actively managed ETFs, which are categorized in this category of

ETFs in general actually increase year over year. And a lot of those are these option managed ETFs, which provide kind of selling calls, selling puts, kind of income producing type ETFs.

ETF. So fees in general have gone up a little bit, but listen, it's flows beget flows, performance beget, but it can go the other way as you and I both know, Guy, and we've seen periods of time here four or five times in 2024, we had these big drawdowns that have occurred. So again, understand when you own passive and you own an ETF, what's in it, try to take advantage, gain a little knowledge of that. And then when there's sell-off opportunities within some of those names that just get sold because they're part of the ETF, take advantage of it. If you want to look for your

bullish out. Yeah, look, and you've seen glimpses. You saw it on December 18th, as recently as December 27th, where you have these downdrafts in the market seemingly out of nowhere, and you have spikes in the VIX that people can't sort of put their finger on. And they've been one-day events. I want to be crystal clear. I'm not suggesting there's anything below the surface. With that said, it gives you a glimpse of what can happen. And my concern and

and unfounded as it may be, but my concern will continue to be when passive investing becomes active investing, Danny, and this is something you can speak to as well, it's never active on the way up. And what works for the market on the way up in the form of passive and this levitation that we see with stocks and

and ETFs. I mean, that's great. But then people look and say the market's broken when things seemingly go the other way. So you got to be careful. You sort of dance with the girl you brought to the prom. And right now, that prom date comes in the form of passive investing. But you wonder if at some point the clock strikes 12 and everybody starts to look at each other and

realize with the advent of passive investing what it's done to valuations, you know, because this money flows regardless of valuations and seemingly regardless of any news flow or news cycle that's out there. Yeah, no one asks questions on the way up. It's always on the way down. And, you know, the other thing we should note is that Bitcoin ETFs

drove a lot of interest as well. And now you're going to see a lot more volatility, which you've actually seen in recent weeks is Bitcoin has kind of moved from the 90,000, 106,000 back to 93. Those are pretty big swings for a north of $2 trillion asset, which I think it's hanging around at this point. And so

Certainly understand the markets, understand the dynamics of it for sure. And you're going to have these periods of time. There's no question, guy. And when you have these volatility moments where the VIX goes from 13 to 14 spikes to 27, inevitably it's an elephant through a mouse hole to your point to a degree. You got to take advantage of that and be prepared for it. And don't be surprised by it.

Whether bond yields shoot up to a certain amount, and that's a trigger, right? And these quant funds all start unloading at the same time. So be a leader, not a follower. You know, it's interesting you mentioned Bitcoin. And again, I don't pretend to know anything about Bitcoin. I would say the lion's share of people listening or watching this right now know a lot more than I do. And I've tried my best, really, to understand, to try to garner what the utility here is. But it's important to bring up, because I do think to a certain extent, given, as you said, the size of the market cap of

that now industry or whatever you want to call it, commodity. MicroStrategy has just acquired another 2,138 Bitcoin. That's for about $209 million at an average price of $97,837 per Bitcoin. Right now, they own 446,000

400 Bitcoin, about $28 billion or so for an average price of $62,428. So as we're sitting here now with Bitcoin at $92,000, now you can do the math. That's worked out rather well in terms of the appreciation. I guess the concern, and I can't speak to this either. I've tried to sort of do back of the envelope math, but

At a certain point, let's just say if they continue to buy Bitcoin and now they're buying it on the way down, and let's say their average price somehow works its way into the low 70,000s, is there a threshold, Danny? And I'm not looking to put you on the spot here, but you've seen things like this. The leverage that works for you on the way up works against you potentially if in fact their cost is...

is now higher than the actual Bitcoin itself. And what then happens on the backside? So try to take a minute on that one. What works, obviously, you said on the way up for ETFs and the market, it works equally aggressively on the way down. Well, just to steal a quote from a great holiday movie, trading places, Duke and Duke, margin call is what happened on that effectively guy. And if you think about the total supply of Bitcoins, which is hanging around 20 million, and somehow the Satoshi thing

The law is that it'll grow to 21 million, but no more because there's a finite supply and all that stuff. If you buy into that, you could do the percentage amount. He owns north of 2% of all the outstanding Bitcoin if you do the math like that. And it's pretty open and obvious. No one's hiding anything. It's out there. And, you know, I guess he went back to shareholders at

micro strategies. And now Saylor wants to obviously increase the amount of shares that can be issued, which he'll get approval for and he'll keep doing it. But to your point, if Bitcoin were to have a drop to 80, 85,000 quickly, right? Micro strategy stock's going to

take a hit. And then all these capital raises become a little bit more dilutive or expensive. So it feeds on itself. Listen, the same way it feeds on itself to the upside, it feeds on itself to the downside. So I'm not going to try to make a prediction. I'm not a Bitcoiner. I haven't been. I'm not going to be bearish on it all. But the math that you're pointing out is math. And that's it. So to your point, if Bitcoin were to drop to 80, 85, MicroStrategy would be down more than the rep

representative 10, 12, 13% drop that that would represent from here, whatever it would be. So yes. Yeah. And I bring that up in the context of, you know, I wonder what it means if anything,

for the broader market is, you know, as micro strategies become that important, where things start to sort of unravel the other way, you know, what it could potentially mean. And again, I don't know, but no, it's important to bring up because as you said, you know, Bitcoin very quietly finds itself now south of 93,000 having, I think, peaked, I don't know if it got to 110, but it got damn close. So that's obviously something to keep an eye on. You bring up a great point, Guy. And because of the advent of

ETFs and crypto. It's more held by retail. If you just want to think about it as a, as Bitcoin is a $2 trillion tech stock, you know, just add it to the,

seven or eight, whatever names you want to, it will have an impact. It'll have an impact on the health of the retail investor for sure. So when it was three, 400 billion, maybe not as much, but now that's more widely held. So it will have a wealth effect in the market and it will have a market impact for sure. Yeah, I think so as well. And it's one of those things, one of the many things that I watch, and this is obviously one that's gotten added to the list

not recently, but something for years we never talked about. I'll be honest with you, up until a few years ago, I never heard of the stock micro strategies or Michael Seller. And that's probably true for a lot of people. That's no disrespect, but that's just stating fact. Something else that both you and I watch are treasury yields. And last week, I think we got to about 463 or so in 10-year yields. We dipped a little bit today. But with all that said...

yields are still important. And it's amazing to me, and I think you're one of the few people that thought this could happen, that since September, when the Fed started cutting rates, 10-year yields have actually gone up 100 basis points, which is not insignificant. And I think it's caught a lot of people off guard. Now, I'll say this as well. Outside of a couple of days that I mentioned, the market doesn't seem to care. But with all that said, I do think it's starting to care. So let's talk about the Treasury market, because I think that's

amongst the many important stories of this year that continues to be one of the most important ones. Yeah, just keep in mind over the next two days and over the last week, the lack of liquidity probably in the markets, it doesn't take much to move these as much, both in equities and in bonds for that matter. And a lot of global markets are closed tomorrow. Our equity markets are open till four o'clock like normal because year-end stuff needs to be done and the bond market closes around two tomorrow. So let me just set the stage. So

I think what you're seeing right now, yields coming in a little bit, is just they sold off a lot. I think you have a little window dressing at year end, and it doesn't take a lot. The point that I'm making is to keep yields down here. So I think people's fear is that inflation is not as tame as people want to believe, that policies coming in with the new administration may be inflationary. So you're starting to get that, I think, more a little bit on the long end here. And again, there's a level where the long end is fine and things can function. If you go back historically, looking at the 10-year yields,

We've been 5%, 6% for decades at a time. It's not unusual. However, this economy is not built for higher rates. This economy, it's not. And the plumbing starts to kind of back up around 5%. We know that. It's a trigger point for sure. And so it's nice to see a move kind of back below 4.6%. But, Guy, I don't think we're anywhere out of the woods yet. And it is the most and will continue to be the most important factor input period as we get into 2025. For whatever reasons it goes up, Guy,

If it's term premium, people concerned about the safety of U.S. bonds and the U.S. government's ability to pay their debts, that's one thing. As I've said, that's the most dangerous reason for yields to go up, and that should scare everybody. If it's just because growth is still pretty good, then maybe you don't have to worry that much until you get substantially above 5%. So we'll see. Well, look, I mean, obviously when people ask those – I'm not suggesting you're asking this question, but when you sort of get a question that –

what is more important or, you know, what is it? A lot of the answers are, it's a combination of both, right? And that's probably true here. A combination of both growth still continuing to surprise people. But more importantly, I think, as you just said, the issuances and the fact that, you know, I,

As many people who want to say the inflation genie is back in the bottle, I am not one of those people. And I still think it's a bit of a problem. And the amount of issuances that are going to be done over the next few months as we start 2025, I think are going to surprise people. And I'll say again, the market participants are going to demand a higher rate of interest to buy our debt. And short of a precipitous market sell-off where maybe you get a flight to qualification,

in the form of the bond market. I'm one of these people that will continue to say the TLT, which is obviously the 20-year treasury bond ETF, I think that could trade down to levels that we saw in October of last year, which is about 82.5, 83, which suggests 10-year yields maybe get somewhere between 45% and 5%. But I'll tell you, Danny, because you watch this as well, if we were to sort of breach, let's just say 80 and round it

down in the TLT, which by the way, I do think there's a potential for that to happen. We're talking about levels that we last saw in the summer of 2007 or so in terms of the TLT, and then theoretically where 10-year yields would go. And I think you said it, I don't think this economy, I don't want to say market yet, but this economy

economy is not built for higher rates by almost by definition. So we'll see how that plays itself out. And with that said, you know, you flagged a couple of things, not least of which, you know, Janet Yellen was making some commentaries late last week. And until she sort of steps down, she's going to continue to have a hand in some of this stuff.

Yeah, I sure read a letter to Speaker Johnson just that, you know, the debt ceiling is going to reset on January 2nd. It'll reset around just north of $36 trillion. There's about $700 billion of cash sitting on the balance sheet Treasury has right now at their disposal. So they can go through that. And then there's extraordinary measures that they can take. So the estimate, according to

Goldman Sachs, I believe, is that we would, quote, default or breach that completely sometime in the summer. So there'll be a lot of fits and starts, but it will be front and center. And by the way, here's the irony, guy. Everyone crushed the rating agencies for being late on subprime mortgage in 2006 and 2007, right? Who wants to be the rating agency, whether it's Moody's, S&P, or Fitch that downgrades U.S. debt?

What do you think Trump would do? Probably pull their business license. Probably do. I'm dead serious, by the way. So you almost have the other side of this, right? No one wants to be the one to say something. And again, hopefully we never default. Hopefully we will get through this, but you're going to have a lot of noise that's going to surround this in the spring. A lot of noise. And again, it's,

not political. I mean, I do not enjoy politics at all. I don't particularly care what my politics are, so I don't expect people to care what my politics are. But with that said, I think what we know about President-elect Trump, one of the many things we know is he seemingly embraces debt like no other president before him, and he obviously has a thirst for lower rates, neither which are necessarily a

bad thing independently of one another. But when you throw those on top of what we've already created in terms of the debt problem in this country and where we are, I think that's a, listen, in my opinion, I think that's a bit of a witch's brew. So there's a lot to unravel over the next few months for sure. So we'll see how that plays out. And again, interest rates are front and center.

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Just in sort of single stock land, obviously what we saw over the weekend, these plane crashes are a tragedy. And it's important. We say it all the time. You know, we're very respectful of the loss of life. And it's a heartbreaking story. But again, Boeing finds itself front and center. And Boeing, the stock, which, you know, seemingly been starting to get off the mat.

obviously is taking a little leg lower here as I think as we're sitting here today, Danny, we have a stock that's down about four and a half percent or so having had a decent bounce since that November low of about, I want to say 138 or thereabouts. Tragic first and foremost. And

secondarily, you know, what's the cause going to be? Some people think it's a bird strike that may have caused this Korean plane to crash on the runway. The landing gear never came out, it appears. So, you know, it's really uncertain at this point. So I don't want to speculate, but Boeing stock has had a run into it. It was probably due for a pullback.

regardless. I don't want to speculate on what might have caused it or not, but certainly it warrants the scrutiny giving Boeing's track record here with safety. Another stock worth watching, obviously, into the new year. I think the importance of Boeing to the US economy can't be overstated, in my opinion. So we'll see what happens. Oil has been a story for 2024,

Because of the lack of volatility, the fact that we've been sort of flatlining for quite some time, we'll see what happens in 2025. There are a lot of people that still think the risk is to the upside. There are other people that believe with slowing global economies, the risk is to the downside. I think there's a scenario where we continue to sort of flatline for a period of time, but that brings us back to these oil equities.

equities, which, you know, and I think in an environment where people are going to look for value, I think you can still find value in the form of a lot of these names. Yeah. Like I said, if oil, unless it drops below 60 or $55, I think you can own these oil names. If there's a shock to the world,

geopolitically, money is going to come out of the high growth kind of names. Where is it going to go? I think it'll go to energy stocks. You know, energy stocks had held up relative to the drop in oil for a period of time until they'll kind of last four to six weeks and the last few days. And we'll see how they do today. The beginning graders have been outperforming again. So I think it's a flight to quote quality. And I'll say this for the 10th time in the last month is that the M&A cycle, which has occurred in energy in the last three to four years, cannot be underestimated in terms of the efficiency of these companies themselves.

Their balance sheets are healthier than they've ever been. And there's fewer companies out there. And whatever the policies are of the US, drill, baby, drill, whatever it might be, they're not going to tell them what they can do. They got caught in this one time with ESG. They're not going to get caught on the other side of this. So from a fiscal discipline perspective, I think you can own the large energy companies regardless of oil, unless it has a massive sell-off. And if it has a massive sell-off,

oil guy, there's another reason for it. And that would be a tremendous slowdown in the US economy of bigger issues to worry about than just oil stocks. CNBC put out a piece in terms of 2025. And I just saw Tom Lee on Squawk Box or one of the shows. I think it was Squawk Box talking about the potential for 7,000 in the S&P.

at some point early in 2025. And he was really not concerned with some of the price action that we've seen in December. And I gotta be honest with you, I'm not one to argue with Tom Lee at this point, 'cause his calls have been, in a word, prescient. But CNBC put out a piece about the headwinds that are out there. And I think on top of their list,

you know, potential policy error by the Federal Reserve. We'll see if they move. I think the next cut is expected in May or June, you know better than I. The Trump administration, the tariffs around that, and then the potential collapse of the AI story, which is interesting that they use that term. So we'll see. They also mentioned bond vigilantes coming. So we discussed bonds

I think we discussed the Fed. Let's talk about the potential for this AI story to sort of unravel before our very eyes, because AI is not going anywhere. It's the same way the internet was not going anywhere during the dot-com bust. But you recall there's a lot of pain associated with the other side of that mountain before we got into some semblance of normalcy.

Let me just go back to the Tom Lee comment in general. So there's 19 quote strategists that are recognized on Wall Street. Not one of them has the market being down in 2025. And yes, I get it. You know, I know if you're bearish and wrong, you get fired and all this stuff. But these same strategists were probably had $5,200 targets on the S&P five months ago and had to raise it or downgrade their assessment of the market. So for people out there that just when you see 19 strategists and all have up for 2025, I don't care if you're bullish or bearish, just recognize that that should scare you a little bit.

As it relates to AI in general, I think it's going to become a show me story is what people are saying basically in 2025. All this ordering by this big software enterprise companies, are they going to reorder? Are they going to get deployed? So did they order too much thinking that they couldn't get these chips and all this stuff? So the rubber is going to meet the road in 2025. And Guy, it's a great comparison that you make to quote the internet build out in 99 and 2000.

Obviously fiber was gonna be built out across the world, but people ordered so much fiber that if you had done the math, I say this all the time, you'd have enough fiber to wrap around earth a hundred times or something like that. So you over-order, you wanna see to the table. So Guy, I'll just call it a show me story and you better own quality in the AI trade. And the ways to do that are kind of traditional tech companies that maybe aren't trading at 40 to 50 times.

Maybe they're 15 to 20 times earning something like that, that have a little piece of AI, get an upside, but not all the risk in terms of valuation that we see here. So I would expect I, if these companies were smart, some of them that are elevated in valuation, a lot of cap raises in Q1 of 2025 and some of these AI,

quote names where the valuations might be a little rich. That would be the smart thing for them to do. Not a lot of economic data this week, obviously, a holiday-shortened week. I think if people are looking at anything, maybe initial jobless claims on Thursday, ISM manufacturing maybe on Friday. We'll start to get some normalcy, I guess, next week. But again, I'm not looking to put you on the spot here, but is there anything seemingly this week that could come out that sort of could upset the apple cart or surprise people to the upside? I

I don't know. You know, the jobs number, which normally comes out on the first Friday of every month is January 10th this year, because obviously with government offices being closed, they're just so people out there that think there's a job where Friday's actually on the 10th. I don't think there'll be anything that shocking. It will be interesting to see kind of the Thursday, Friday action in the markets, right? We're closed on Wednesday. Normally you get, you know, money flows, you get the January effect as they call it, which is a small cap name, start to rebound a little bit.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a sell-off continue today into tomorrow, if you see kind of a rebound in some of those smaller names that are out there. But as far as economic data, the only thing that stuck out to me last week was continuing claims continue to grow. And they were the highest in several years. And you could argue that that's, quote, bullish for the markets in general because it may induce the Fed to move quicker. And one note on the Fed here, Guy, we're now...

I think about 50-50 that we're going to cut it all in March, zero chance basically January. And then we're basically 60-40 of two cuts total in 2025. And I think that's starting to price its way into the market as well. So as economic data has an impact, it will impact Fed Fund futures and Fed Fund futures will in turn impact people's thought. And Guy, the most important thing obviously is earnings growth in 2020.

2025, what's going to be the driver. And so we'll get Q4, mid-January, we start again, we'll get outlooks in 25, and we'll just go from there. We started this with former president Jimmy Carter. We'll end it this way. I think the last time the Vikings of Minnesota were in the Super Bowl was during the Carter administration. Funny that now you have a team that seemingly nobody had really been talking about in earnest. Maybe more people are starting to talk about

them now. They have flown under the radar screen because the Lions have obviously been a huge story. What's going on in Philadelphia with Saquon has been a huge story. The Chiefs on the other side of the ledger are always a huge story. The Bills are seemingly on the verge of doing something they haven't been able to do in quite some time. But as you sit here on this Monday with the final week of the NFL season coming up,

What are your thoughts as we get to the playoffs? I know I asked you that last week. Has anything changed? You just glossed over the Giants. I just love it. Saquon Barkley, 2,000 yards, Giants. Jones is on Minnesota, which may actually end up being a curse for them. But I don't know. Something about Sam Darnold just tells me that he's not going to make the Super Bowl.

And I just don't think that the NFC North is going to have this rule team. I think it's going to be the Eagles and the Eagles defense is so good. And you know, they, they won with Kenny Pickett yesterday. I know it's Dallas and they, they suck and whatever, but I think it's Eagles. And I think it's Eagles and state the obvious against the chiefs or the bills. And maybe the bills feel like it.

team of destiny, but I'm going to probably say Chiefs, Eagles, if I had to pick, and that's not going, obviously, out on a limb here, guy at all. But again, as I mentioned last week, any team that makes this, quote, tournament, as we call it, when you get in can win it. Anybody. And

And I'm not saying the Rams can do it. Rams might upset somebody in the first round of those playoffs. But you have the great coach and stuff. So it should be interesting. It should be fun. But I'm going Chiefs-Eagles. You're a good man, Danny Moses. I've always enjoyed spending time with you. I know our listeners, viewers enjoy it when the two of us see a hurt and no pine. So thank you. Thanks again to the viewers, the listeners. Again, Amanda, Jacob, Timmy,

Bill, obviously, Dan, Nathan, you. We do our best every single day. We're looking for big things in 2025. So thanks for joining us here on the tape. Happy New Year.