Warren Buffet's Massive Cash Pile, Retirement & What It Signals For Investors
35:13 Share

On the Tape.

iConnections is the largest membership-only platform for the alternative investment industry, bringing together thousands of fund managers and allocators on a single powerful platform. Through its platform and premier in-person events, iConnections reimagines how the industry connects, empowering allocators and managers to meet, build relationships, and do business anytime, anywhere. This June, join us at Global Alts New York, June 9th and 10th,

one of the most anticipated alternative investment events of the year where deals happen. Thousands of curated one-on-one meetings, cutting-edge thought leadership, and unmatched networking opportunities all in one place. To explore more about iConnections events and gain access to its members-only platform, visit iConnections.io.

SoFi, the all-in-one super app for banking, borrowing, and investing. Earn industry-leading APY, get great loan rates, and trade stocks. SoFi, get your money right. Banking products and loans offered by SoFi Bank N.A., NMLS 696891. Brokerage and active investing products offered through SoFi Securities, LLC, member FINRA, SIPC.

A warm welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast on this Monday, May 5th, in the wake of the Kentucky Derby, which, by the way, Danny Moses of the On The Tape Podcast nailed with sovereignty. But a lot to talk about. G-Swizz here with Dan Nathan. How you doing?

I'm doing great guy. I mean, I missed you on Friday. I was traveling and then I had a really long call for a couple hours into the close. I was not looking at the markets. It was a sea of green, but one stock. And it was one of those days, man, it really felt like a bit of a blow off top when I'm just doing a little review of review, review of what happened, review, review. I don't know.

know, on Friday. But listen, I'm excited for the Fed meeting this week. We have some data, still a bunch of earnings. But before we do anything, you just said it's Monday, May 5th. You know, you also said before we got on here, you really try to stay off your phone over the weekend, which is admirable. You know what I mean? We're staring at screens all day long. You're on the phone, you know, this and that or whatever. But you did send one text out as a group text and there was some emojis on it. But it was May the 4th be with you yesterday, which

You know what I thought was really cool? Because I know that Star Wars and that culture runs deep in you. Yeah. No, I couldn't help myself. I get so excited on that day. And I send, what's her name? Drew Barrymore. I send it to her every year as well because she was great in that movie. By the way, this week for you playing our home game,

We're sitting down with Mike Novogratz. That drops tomorrow, Tuesday. You're sitting down with Gene Munster. That drops on Wednesday. Rick Heitzman and John Bennett.

on Thursday and this is a, they're all big, but Dan Benton, um, dropping on Friday. He's a bit of a legend. Everybody's a legend here, but he's a, you know, he's a bit of a legend in our world. Yeah, this is a big week. I'm really excited. Our new format that we came into this year with, um, we're just really trying to have more conversations. Maybe you guys are just sick of listening to the guy and me go back and forth, but we get smarter every time we have the opportunity to have guys like Novogratz and Jean and Dan Benton. I'm really excited about you guys all know, um,

rick heitman or just just really quickly dan benton uh in the early 90s who was a tech analyst at goldman sachs he came out with these 10 investing rules for technology they are still applicable today uh 35 years later or so so we're going to run through some of that and where he sees things guy where do we want to start this morning well let's start with last week's rally because you know as predictable as it may have been just in terms of the bounce

off that trend line. And, you know, we'll talk about it more on Market Call, but we've had an uptrend line in place for the S&P since 2020, which early in April, we traded down to and bounced off of. And I think collectively, we thought you could see a bounce. And, you know, I thought maybe we'd get to 5550. Obviously, we got higher than that, got to about 5700. But

You know, for the technicians out there, we've basically traded up to about the 200-day moving average, which continues to slope lower. But let's talk about the reasons why. And I think there was a lot of optimism last week around a potential deal with the Chinese, which you heard glimpses of, some rumors about, some tweets about. I don't necessarily know that anything's coming to fruition anytime soon.

But the market was sort of in the buy first, ask questions later, because obviously they didn't want to get steamrolled if something were to happen over the weekend. Yeah. And you know, that sort of enthusiasm that we had into Friday's close, it might've matched the pessimism guy two Mondays ago. And I want to be really clear on this. I mean, I was very bearish about the outcomes of this trade war and I still remain bearish. And two, two Mondays ago, um,

I don't think I was so bearish about the markets for all the reasons that you just mentioned. The S&P kissed that uptrend. That's a meaningful uptrend if you think about where it came from, the COVID lows. At one point, I think we're as far below the 200-day moving average as we have been since COVID. And I think that was even greater than during the 2022 pandemic.

bear market, by the way. So and we were also we came in that week guy and I can't remember two weeks ago, whatever the hell the date was. And all of those kind of bull bear sentiment indicators were flashing 30 year lows. And I think that's how we started the program. So the idea that you'd have that bounce, you definitely were in the camp. And I think it was like a couple that you would call

In 2022, we had a couple really, really big rallies. The first one I think came in June of '22, and I think it was one of those ones where people were debating, was that just another sell-off in a secular bull market? We're hearing some of the same stuff, but I guess what's different this time than 2022 is that we just didn't have this cloud of uncertainty. Yeah, we didn't know how far the Fed was gonna raise interest rates, and let's be clear, they went farther than many folks suspected.

We were also talking about at some point in the offing in 2023, think about that guy going all the way back then when the Fed was going to start cutting interest rates. It was starting, the Fed funds tool was starting to imply rate cuts. And then things just never happened that way because what did you say that inflation was going to be? What was the term? Persistent and pesky or pesky and persistent. Those were the two PE words that I used for a long time. And you know what? That's proven to be actually somewhat accurate.

It has done. I mean, like surprisingly, Guy, I know you like to be self-deprecating. Let's talk a little bit about Fed. Let's talk about the Fed. You said the market rallied nine consecutive days into Friday's close because of hope of some sort of trade deals. And we know that that's going to be harder to achieve than maybe the president thinks because...

because we have to do all of these bilateral deals and then deal with China. The Chinese have been pushing back that they were not in talks. They kind of opened the door to maybe talks. I think you and I are both in agreement that and again, we're not trade experts. We're not economists in the like. But if we go back to the playbook, you know, from 2018, 2019, when we first put some big tariffs on China under the first Trump administration, it took two years to have a phase one deal. And I think that's

really important. So what's more important to you guy this week? Any progress on trade or what the Fed is likely to do? Because that's been pretty well telegraphed. Yeah, well, I think trade, I think trade overrides pretty much everything, but you might get a sort of benign week on the back of that. I do think the Fed is important and it's

Not necessarily what they're going to do, because I think everybody's pretty convinced they're not going to do anything, in my opinion, nor should they. It's sort of the rhetoric and the commentary on the back of it and what we're going to hear, if anything, from the administration if, again, the Fed fails to sort of acquiesce, which, again, I don't think they will. So I think the Fed...

continues to be pretty important. In terms of the trade front, I'm hard pressed to believe you're going to build on some of the headlines or tidbits that we got last week. We shall see. I think this is a week that's going to be dominated by the end of earnings season and obviously the Fed meeting

on Wednesday. But also, I think it's going to be dominated by some of the things we heard over the weekend. And that's Warren Buffett stepping down, which I don't think is a surprise at the end of the year. But I think more importantly, and this is my biggest takeaway, he continues to add to his cash position in the wake of what's been going on. So this is obviously somebody that is still looking at things. And I don't want to compare him in any way to what I look at.

but I think we're looking at things in a similar way. And that Buffett indicator, which again, the Wilshire 5,000, which is all investable stocks effectively divided by the GDP, you know, something to trade in North of 200% at its Zenith really hasn't come down all that much, Dan, you know, you're talking about something that's still probably in the 185th percent, 185% or so. And just for perspective, Dan,

you know, the mean for this is below 100. And I think Mr. Buffett gets concerned with anything north of about 125 or so. So my point in bringing that up is he obviously had the Berkshire Hathaway meeting over the weekend. He took questions for four and a half hours or something. But

you know the biggest takeaway for me is he continues to add to a cash position yeah no it really will be fascinating to see what his heir apparent um you know how he deploys that cash how they think about it because that is a massive nut now you can say you know while we have a 10-year yield at 4.32 percent which where it is you know what i mean it's still throwing off you know a shit done of cash and you could also make the argument because of the

Buffett indicator that valuations don't look at all attractive for them to deploy some capital. So it'll be interesting to see the course that they map out. Guy, I want to hit David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. We just call him

rosy rosy um in his note this morning uh it's early morning with dave which i read every day the first thing uh when it comes out dollar weakness points against a true risk on trade the fact that the u.s dollar has been so weak given that other central banks are trimming rates with the fed on hold is a true mystery and a non-validation of the wild risk on balance the equity and credit markets have turned in the past three plus weeks um i think

that's interesting, right? When we think about risk on, is it like something that can build on strong fundamentals? We just had, we got through the bulk of S&P 500. We have a 10-year yield that is not ripping higher. It's at the same exact spot it was a year ago. The Dixie, the US dollar index is obviously down a lot. There's a whole host of things going on geopolitically, what means for monetary policy. I mean, we just went through some of that stuff.

it seems, and I kind of alluded to this relative to 2022, I mean, it seems like a totally different market, yet the S&P is only down 3.5% after everything we know. And I'll just say this, doing a lot of reading on some of the recaps of earnings season, it's like, okay, the pull forward helped a lot of these companies in their quarters. But then if you look at what the visibility and what the

commentary was going forward. That's the thing that we believe the market should be trading on right now. So at this point, they are not discounting the potential for this trade war to go on further. And everything that you read, the longer that our economy stays in this sort of stasis, right, it's just going to keep

chipping away. And when you look at that GDP, last thing I'll just say on this, we had Dan Greenhouse of Solace on the pod last week, and we were talking about how you could explain away that negative print in Q1 GDP, because if you import like crazy and exports are down on a relative basis, that's going to be adversely affecting GDP. So a lot of the data that we're seeing is not truly reflective, you know what I mean, about what's going on in the economy. Does that make sense?

Makes a lot of sense. And we have said, and again, neither one of us are economists. I'm clearly not. But we have said for a while now that all these data points you're going to hear over the next couple of weeks or a couple of months are going to be really lumpy and messy. And there's going to be something for everybody. And you just talked about how Dan explained the GDP number, which, by the way, that's an acceptable, I think, explanation. I think a lot of people came to that realization. But you throw on top of that a couple of things.

I think people were sort of encouraged by the jobs number on Friday. Unemployment rates stayed the same. The jobs number came in a little bit better than expected. But then you're starting to see what we've seen before, the revisions from the prior month, revised lower. So that jobs picture, which everybody continues to think is so robust to me, you're definitely showing some strain there without question. You mentioned 10-year yields continue to sort of be sticky here. But the most important thing, not the most important thing, but

In addition, almost as importantly, is this weakness in the U.S. dollar, which more and more people are starting to talk about. And you want to look at the euro, for example. I mean, the dollar euro traded below parity in the fall of 2022, below 100, let's just call it. As we're sitting here now at about 113.5-ish.

We're basically approaching the levels that we saw just a couple of weeks ago, which I think, Dan, was about 115 and change. We're probably at like a three year high. And all indications are that the weakness in the dollar is going to continue. I don't think as much as people say that's bullish for multinationals and creates a tailwind for a lot of these companies.

at a certain point, a weaker dollar on top of higher yields is not particularly bullish, in my opinion. Yeah, and then let's throw crude oil in there right now. Normally, you would see the dollar selling off like this, or when you see the dollar selling off like this, it might be a tailwind to crude oil. But OPEC keeps flooding the world with oil. And I think it's notable because, you know,

President Trump this weekend on Meet the Press. I don't know if you saw that. He sat down with Kristen Welker and it was a long interview and it was like kind of good to get a, you know, I think a little bit of a live check on where his head is at. Obviously, they talked about Fed Chair Powell

And I think it'll be interesting because he definitely took a step back, a big step back from saying that he has any interest in firing him. It'll be interesting to see what the commentary is out of Fed chair Powell and what happens next. It'll be interesting to see what the president is tweeting tomorrow. I think he knows that it's not like these sorts of decisions come down to the wire or anything like that. And obviously the press conference at two 30 on Wednesday is going to be important, but

you know, he did mention, you know, I brought down the price of oil. Okay. And so let's talk about that for a second, because to me, the follow up question should have there were no good follow ups. I just want to be really clear about that. I was kind of disappointed with the interview, and I know he's a very, very difficult guy to live fact check.

but there's certain things that they should have been prepared for as it comes to like inflation, right? And if he's just gonna say, I have brought down the price of oil, that's fine. You know, I think the average price at the pump in across the US this week is like 315 or something like that, which is fantastic. I mean, when oil was 90 bucks, I wanna say, you know, six, nine months ago, it was well above $4 and that's a huge tax on US consumers, especially the ones who are having a real hard time with the cumulative effects.

of inflation over the last four years. You know, he was suggesting that some is below two dollars or something like that. That's not the case. But thoughts on an oil here. Is it more reflective on lack of growth or uncertainty around the trade war and the potential for a global recession? Or is it something else, Guy?

Well, I think it's exactly what you just said. I think it's this slowdown, number one. And it's also, you can go back in time and history is starting to repeat itself. It's sort of be careful what you wish for because if you go to, and again, I'm not suggesting anybody did anything, but there's a reason why OPEC is, you use the term flooding the world with crude oil. This happened before and-

Sort of be careful what you wish for because the crude oil price gets too much lower and it really starts to hurt some of our domestic producers. Now, the effect on gasoline is obvious. You know, you just said if gas prices have come down, but I would submit unless everything is coming down in unison, food prices, shelter, all those other things.

That's just sort of a sideshow to a certain extent. People might be feeling relief at the pump, but they're not feeling relief in other places. So crude oil is just sort of a one-off to me. And you get that price much lower than we're currently trading, then you start to have some issues

in terms of what does it do to our domestic producers and what does it do to states like, for example, specifically a name like Texas, which, you know, obviously the lion's share of their economy is predicated on exactly that, the energy business. So this is a bit of a slippery slope. And remember, it was during President Trump's first administration that we saw the front month crude go to negative $40 or such a barrel. And that was a bit of an anomaly

But if you do recall, he also went back to OPEC and told them to cut production because the price was too low. So it's a slippery slope when you start to get in bed or start to play a little political game with OPEC because those prices can do things that as much as you want them to do at a certain point, it's not what you want them to do.

Introducing Event Contracts from CME Group for individual investors who want a new, less complex way to trade some of the world's most recognized futures markets. They're smaller, lower cost, with predefined risk. Event Contracts let you trade your views on daily up or down price moves in equities, gold, oil, and more. The markets you know and use every day. Take a position by choosing a side with Event Contracts from CME Group.

Learn more at cmegroup.com slash eventcontracts.

iConnections is the largest membership-only platform for the alternative investment industry, bringing together thousands of fund managers and allocators on a single, powerful platform. Through its platform and premier in-person events, iConnections reimagines how the industry connects, empowering allocators and managers to meet, build relationships, and do business anytime, anywhere. This June, join us at Global Alts New York, June 9th and 10th,

one of the most anticipated alternative investment events of the year where deals happen. Thousands of curated one-on-one meetings, cutting-edge thought leadership, and unmatched networking opportunities all in one place. To explore more about iConnections events and gain access to its members-only platform, visit iConnections.io.

SoFi, the all-in-one super app for banking, borrowing, and investing. Earn industry-leading APY, get great loan rates, and trade stocks. SoFi, get your money right. Banking products and loans offered by SoFi Bank N.A., NMLS 696891. Brokerage and active investing products offered through SoFi Securities, LLC, member FINRA, SIPC.

I want to go to some earnings that happened Thursday after the close because I think this one is important, guys. Of all the mega cap tech stocks, Apple,

was down nearly 4%. And I think this company kind of encapsulates all the potential risks for US multinationals. Like to your point, forget the dollar, forget yields, that sort of thing. You know, here's a company that put up good numbers because of a pull forward. You know, consumers were going out, they were buying phones. And we know this, we've been talking about this for years.

Maybe 200 million iPhones here in the US or something like that need to be refreshed because they're three to four years old, that sort of thing. So the prospect of you needing a new iPhone and then waiting and maybe having to pay $2,500 for a $1,000 iPhone, not particularly palatable. But the stock sold off because of Chinese demand. Now we've been talking about China for Apple

Apple for a long time. It's been like a mid to high teens contributor, I think, on a revenue front. And it was a really big part of their growth story. We also know manufacturing and obviously access to, you know, workers there through Foxconn and the like. But when I look at this stock guy, it never even sniffed its 200 day moving average on the upside. We're not going to get in the technicals. We'll do more of that on the market call. But it is interesting, almost to the penny.

the NASDAQ 100 touched its 200-day moving average. So if you think things overshot to the downside a few weeks ago, they might have overshot to the upside. And that 200-day moving average going back to after the bear market kind of, we didn't know it was bottoming in late 2022.

but that served as massive support on the way up. You know, it was just this 45 degree angle and the NDX never breached it. And then when it broke it back in late March, it went from, I don't know, I want to say, you know, 20,000 to where we are right now.

down to, I don't know, 17,000 almost in a straight now. So it's rebounded. It's done a V reversal there, but an Apple still well below its 200 day moving average. So I would submit to use your expression. If you are looking to maybe put shorts out or you're looking to take some profits and some names that you don't feel comfortable about because of the potential for a protracted trade war, Apple has to be tops on that list because the relative weakness. And you know, it is, it is a bit of a

paradigm shift in terms of the 208 moving average providing support for so long when

when Apple would trade off and now to your point it's providing resistance when Apple bounces so things have changed and you know we'll get into this in Market Call as you said but a lot of these stocks it's obviously happened in the broader market in terms of the death cross everybody's talking about the 50-day moving average crossing down through the 200-day it's also happened in a bunch of individual names as well which is something quite frankly we haven't seen in quite some time so

I'm of the belief that as violent as these rallies are, and I want to be crystal clear, this last couple days definitely surprised me a little bit. I didn't think we'd get as extended as we are. But the worm has turned, I think, in terms of the market and how the setup is. And now I think it's more rallies being sold than dips being bought. And I'll add to this just last thing for me before we sort of move on.

The VIX, for all the market rallies, still has a 24 handle on it, which is the lowest we've seen in a while, but historically is the upper end of the band for the last couple of years. Yeah, and I would couple that with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.

like those two things. Now, we don't really chart the VIX, but if you look at, you know, it had spent a week above almost 40. I mean, it spent like four trading days or something like that. So here we are now, it's making a series of higher lows, you know, off of those levels from March where it seemed to be kind of melting aside. And, you know, I did just say in the same breath, you know, that the 10-year yield is nearly exactly the same spot it was

a year ago, but we are up from what 3.9. Where did we get as low as in April? I think, but no, your points well taken, you know, that was on the back of, if you remember,

i mean some of the growth scares that were taking place and you saw that huge rally in the tlt uh and probably a lot of was predicated as word i love to use on the fact that the stock market was getting throttled as well so there was this you know flight to perceived quality but that's sort of worn off as well and i think it's important to what you know carter talks about yields being in the same place you just mentioned as well and i totally understand that but

the way that yields get there and what's going on under the surface i do think matters and we're going to learn a lot more over this week for sure

Yeah. And then here's one thing, you know, it just like we talked about the change in sentiment. So we went from, you know, the trade war being really bad, the potential for recession, you know, increasing dramatically. We had Torsten Slok of Apollo, who we really appreciate his work because he usually is non-consensus relative to, you know, most of the strategists.

on Wall Street. And he was, you know, suggesting there's a 90% probability of a recession at some point by mid-year, maybe Q3, if by the end of Q3, you know, if we didn't have a lot of clarity, specifically, I think, as it relates to China. I mean, if you look at all the data, and this is not anecdotal by any means, but just go to Perplexity or ChatGPT and, you know, kind of, you know, you know, noodle around a little bit on, you know, ships leaving China.

- What that means for our rails or the lack thereof. If these ships are not full with goods, then these longshoremen are gonna get laid off. I mean, think about that. They're gonna get furloughed, they're gonna get laid off. What does that mean for rails? What does it mean for truckers? What does it mean for the folks who make what? Is it pallets? A pallets, you know what I mean? Like all that sort of, I mean, the list goes.

on and on, and then this goes back, I think a week and a half ago, wasn't it the CEOs of Walmart, Target, some other big retailers were going into the White House and they were basically saying, hey, listen, Mr. President and financial team, in about three to six months,

we will have maybe a third less of the product on our shelves. And it's going to make COVID look like, you know, you know, that's sort of like a walk in the park a little bit. And that's how some of the tune has changed, not based on what some of these other countries are saying, but really about what a lot of our CEOs are saying about their industries, which it seems like they are unanimous.

In their like opposition to a protracted trade war. Yeah. And listen, they're obviously they have things at stake here. And I don't think they're incorrect, but it's worth noting. And by the way, everything you just talked about, Stuart Sopp brought the same points up.

on the Risk Reversal podcast that dropped on Friday. You know, he talked about trucking being a leaning indicator and all the indications that he's got and all the people that he's talked to suggest, and he has the data to back it up, by the way, that things are slowing down in a pretty meaningful way. So it's all happening. And as much as I think, listen,

Listen, the market is what it is in terms of how it will react to things. But the lag effect around what you just talked about, things don't just turn on a dime. You don't just put that faucet right back on it.

it takes time. And the longer this is protracted, again, something you just said, I think the worse it gets and the more it's going to impact the back half of this year. And, you know, I saw highlights of that Kristen Welker interview. And, you know, again, some things are said, you know, I don't want to say tongue in cheek, but off the cuff. And, you know, one of the comments was, well, maybe you don't need $30. Maybe you need only a couple and those types of things. So

If you listen to some of the commentary the same way, if you listen to some of the commentary in March, there's sort of a setup for temper expectations. You know, it's going to take some time to get through this the same way again with some of the same things we heard in late March. Yeah. You know, and I right after that comment, they went to the panel, Mark Short. OK, he's the former chief of staff of

VP Pence under the first administration. He was also the director of legislative affairs. So what does that mean? Like he is basically a liaison between the white house and then, you know, some legislative initiatives by in this case, the Republican party. And he almost immediately guy, I don't know. He said that whole, let them eat cake thing, which you and I had kind of been hinting to that, you know, that whole Besant thing about the American dream. This is a, this is part of this whole narrative, right? Is not cheap flat screen TVs, um,

from China, you know, 90% and this is not bullshit. 90% of the toys that are sold here in America are made in China. Okay. The list goes, it's staggering about all the consumer goods. That's not going to come as a huge surprise to people, but if 90% of certain parts of our, you know, that, that our consumers buy,

from china they're gonna we're gonna have a bigger problem as far as you know um supply and china's obviously gonna have a problem with demand but the chinese government is already setting up ways in which to support their economy which they've been doing and it hasn't been that helpful but let me tell you something crude oil going down like this is good for china it not having a um

Some sort of solution in Ukraine is good for China. You know why? Because the Russians can only sell their oil to India and China for the most part. And they're basically cutting the price of it dramatically. So if you have crude oil at 57 and you have the Chinese buying oil from Russia,

at 40 bucks or less or something like that, they're going to find ways to kind of stick it out. They did it the first time around. And my point about Mark Short, though, guy, and this is a Republican, obviously, and he's a very conservative Republican. He's not a MAGA Republican, but he immediately was coming at the trade war and just how it makes no sense or at least doing it in this manner, that sort of thing. So again, I just thought that was interesting because as we get closer to the end of this year, it's going to

all it's going to be all about the midterms, like all about the midterm. And then you start to wonder how much some of these Republican, let's say, congressmen in particular, they got to go back to their districts. They got to start running for reelection. And if prices remain high and the economy is weak and some of the companies that are meant to basically benefit long term from a trade war reorienting manufacturing in the near term, though, it's going to be a lot of pain. And that's the point you just made, is that they're saying straight

Strap it in here, people, because we're going to have this adjustment period. That doesn't help you get reelected in the midterms. Yeah, I mean, look, I can't speak about elections and how that's going to play out, but I think we can talk about how it's going to play out in the market. And if they're telling you to sort of, you know, brace yourself, and that's my term, but I mean, I think that's sort of what the market is hearing, then you should brace yourself. I mean, if they're telling you that, you should be prepared for it. And I think brace yourself comes in the form of

of the S&P 500. And again, some of the individual names that we've talked about and the fact that, you know, on a number of different metrics, the market is still expensive. And before we get out of here, you know, in terms of that volatility index, we have a bunch of earnings this week. We have Palantir today after the bell, which again, you know, you've talked about the absurdity of the valuation, but, you know, plus or minus 13% move for Palantir. On Tuesday, SMCI, AMD, Rivian, SMCI implied move of 11%.

Wednesday, we have Disney, I think before the bell Uber, Novo Nordisk, Oxy, which is obviously a Warren Buffett name, but all these stocks have huge implied moves. And again, that speaks to some of the uncertainty that you've been talking about for the last few minutes. Yeah, the Palantir one, and we don't have to get too much into it because the fundamentals really don't matter here. If you think about it, the valuation is trading at North of 70 times sales. I mean, think about that a year ago, this stock was trading just above 20 bucks. Um,

And, you know, it topped out just last week, I want to say at 125 or something like that, which was basically the high going back to February. The stock from the February all time highs to its lows earlier in April or very early April. It was down nearly 50 percent after being up 400 percent from the year ago highs. And here we are now. We're right back.

at those prior all-time highs. So you're talking about a 13% implied move in either direction. The last two quarters, the stock has gapped up and closed up 20-some percent. But the higher your stock goes, the bigger the market cap, the more difficult it is to kind of keep that sort of upward momentum. This is nearly a $300 billion market cap company. That is truly astounding. How many

300 billion market cap companies guy are in the S&P 500. I would say less than 50. Does that make some sense? I mean, you know, we're just kind of guessing. It makes a lot of sense. I mean, there are not that many companies that are, yeah, I mean, to your point. And the valuation, people are excited about Palantir. I get it. But again, we'll drill down a little bit more in market call. I mean, that move to 125 and then the subsequent move where it lost almost 50% only to get it right back

I mean, it's remarkable how volatile this name specifically is. Yeah, just to put some, you know, and we can kind of get out of here on this. 77 and a half times sales. That's where it's trading at right now. On a forward basis, it's basically trading a little below that. On a trailing basis, it's expected to grow, you know, sales this year. Let's call it 30% earnings, 36% next year, 23% earnings growth. Trades at 181 times that off of, you know, we've talked about this trend

You know, this revenue base that 3.75 billion this year, maybe 5 billion next. So 181 times earnings next year and 61 times sales. There's no planet.

where this stock makes any, I mean, there just isn't. Okay. So, you know, let's see what happens tomorrow, but this is to me, an accident waiting to happen guy. Well, we're going to find out, obviously a lot to talk about this week. Again, fed on Wednesday, slew of earnings, a lot of things that we haven't talked about. They're going to probably rear their head, but that's why we try to do this every day and make an issue. And we got market call, uh,

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. I mentioned all the guests we have. A busy week here at Risk Reversal. Dan, we'll talk to you later. All right. Thanks, everyone.