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cover of episode What Should Investors Look Forward To In 2025?

What Should Investors Look Forward To In 2025?

2025/1/6
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On The Tape

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D
Dan Nathan
知名金融分析师和评论员,常在 CNBC 上提供市场分析和评论。
G
Guy Adami
经验丰富的华尔街交易员和金融分析师,知名媒体人物。
L
Liz Thomas
Topics
Dan Nathan: 2025年市场将受到政策不明朗的影响,特别是关税和通胀。银行财报将是重要的观察指标,因为预期2025年同比盈利增长13%-14%。此外,10年期国债收益率上升与标普500指数之间的负相关性表明,股市可能面临风险。如果10年期国债收益率升至5%附近,股市投资者将开始关注。定制芯片的兴起将是2025年的一个重要主题,这将挑战英伟达在市场上的主导地位。市场高度集中,少数几只股票决定了市场走向。大型科技公司支出放缓可能预示着市场增长动能减弱。市场存在极端下行波动风险,与2007-2008年金融危机类似。 Liz Thomas: 投资者应关注盈利能力和利润率,而非仅仅关注市场动量。投资者需要更关注基本面而非技术面因素。股市在10年期国债收益率达到或超过4.5%时表现挣扎,目前的股市上涨可能只是异常现象。市场集中度过高,大型科技股主导市场,这使得市场更加脆弱。市场集中度过高,未来一年股市回报率可能仅为3%。第一季度市场波动将持续,因为政策不明朗以及通胀可能上升。市场集中度过高增加了大型科技股大幅回调的风险。当前市场与2001-2002年科技股泡沫破裂更相似,而非2007-2008年金融危机。市场存在多米诺骨牌效应的风险,但不会影响整个美国消费者的资产负债表。2025年,传统经济股票可能跑赢大盘。传统经济板块估值具有吸引力,可能成为投资者从科技股中撤资的受益者。 Guy Adami: 美国财政部即将发行巨额债务,这将导致更高的收益率。收益率上升以及市场对债务的需求将继续超出预期。收益率上升与科技股上涨之间的关系存在矛盾,这种状况不可持续。被动投资的规模巨大,其影响力超过了估值、情绪、新闻和外部风险等因素。市场高度集中,少数几只股票占据了标普500指数的大部分权重。被动投资加剧了市场集中度,苹果公司受益于此。传统经济板块估值具有吸引力,可能成为投资者从科技股中撤资的受益者。银行股可能表现不佳,因为其估值可能已经反映了监管放松带来的利好。市场估值过高,多种指标显示市场风险。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What are the key market trends and expectations for 2025 according to Liz Thomas?

Investors in 2025 will need to focus on earnings strength and profit margins rather than momentum. Sectors like healthcare, materials, and industrials, which are not trading at all-time highs, could present growth opportunities. The market may see volatility in the first half of the year due to policy uncertainty, with potential stabilization in the second half as clarity emerges.

Why are bond yields and their impact on equities a significant concern in 2025?

Bond yields are expected to rise due to supply and demand dynamics in the Treasury market, with $10 trillion of maturing debt in 2025. Higher yields, particularly above 4.5%, could pressure equities, especially growth stocks, as discount rates increase. The market may struggle if yields continue to climb, potentially leading to a re-steepening of the yield curve and increased volatility.

What is the potential impact of passive investing on the market in 2025?

Passive investing, which saw a record $1 trillion flow into mutual funds and ETFs in 2024, continues to override traditional market signals like valuation and sentiment. This trend supports mega-cap stocks, as ETFs often heavily weight these names. However, this concentration increases the risk of sharp drawdowns if passive flows reverse, as seen in December 2024 when growth stocks experienced significant sell-offs.

What sectors could outperform in 2025, and why?

Healthcare, materials, and industrials are expected to outperform in 2025 due to attractive valuations and strong earnings growth potential. These sectors, often considered 'old economy' stocks, could benefit from a rotation out of overvalued tech stocks. Additionally, if inflation persists, materials and industrials may see further upside.

What risks are associated with the concentration of market performance in a few mega-cap stocks?

The concentration of market performance in mega-cap stocks, such as the 'Magnificent Seven,' increases the risk of extreme downside volatility. These stocks, driven by multiple expansion, are vulnerable to corrections if earnings fail to justify their valuations. A drawdown in these names could trigger a domino effect across ETFs and investor portfolios, amplifying market fragility.

How might geopolitical and policy developments impact markets in 2025?

Geopolitical risks, such as potential tariff policies and inflation surprises, could create market volatility in 2025. Policy clarity, particularly around tax cuts and tariffs, will be crucial for market stability. Additionally, weaker-than-expected data from China and cooling geopolitical tensions could influence sectors like metals and mining, offering trading opportunities.

What is the outlook for tech stocks in 2025, particularly in the semiconductor sector?

Tech stocks, especially in the semiconductor sector, face challenges in 2025 due to elevated valuations and potential margin degradation as competition increases. Companies like NVIDIA, trading at 18 times next year's sales, may struggle to sustain their growth trajectory. Additionally, the rise of custom silicon solutions, led by companies like Broadcom and Marvell, could disrupt NVIDIA's dominance in the GPU market.

Chapters
The podcast starts by introducing the hosts and sponsors. They discuss the market's bumpy start to 2025, focusing on earnings strength, profit margins, and the impact of policy clarity. The conversation touches upon bond yield fluctuations, potential tariffs, and the performance of tech stocks.
  • Market started 2025 on a bumpy note
  • Investors need to focus on earnings strength and profit margins
  • Policy clarity is crucial
  • Bond yield fluctuations and potential tariffs impact the market
  • Tech stocks' performance is a key indicator

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

On the Tape.

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First edition of the On The Tape podcast for 2025. I'm Dan Nathan, joined by Liz Thomas of SoFi and always with Guy Adami. Guys, welcome to the new year. Good morning. Elizabeth, good to see you. We have not been on together in maybe two weeks or so. And so we're coming in hot. We're coming in hot the first week of January. In a weird week, we have a Thursday off this week. And obviously, in remembrance of former President Trump,

Carter. And I got to say, guys, this is kind of a weird last few weeks. We had two holiday shortened weeks. We're going to have one this week. We have one in a week and a half or so. Kind of interesting for the markets here a little bit. But we got a lot to cover here. First, some housekeeping. Guy and I, we're going to a Wednesday on the tape. So our new schedule is going to be Monday with Liz, Wednesday with Guy and myself. We're

Friday with Danny Moses, Guy, and myself and fabulous market participants are going to join us there. So Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, we're also going to have a bunch of Market Call make-ups on Fridays. So check out that and what we're going to be doing over the next few weeks or so. And who knows, Guy, maybe we're going to have a Friday edition of the Market Call come early this year. Guy, what are you excited for?

on tap for Risk Versatile Media out of the gate here in 2025. The continued expansion of the franchise, integration of new sponsors, our continued relationship with Elizabeth Young Thomas of SoFi, the audience, which is extraordinarily loyal and continues to build.

and maybe getting out on the road and doing some events. So there's a lot in store in 2025. All right, Liz Thomas, you're hitting the ground running here. We went over your year end and year ahead report that you put out a couple of weeks ago. What excites you from this SoFi perspective? We know that you spend a lot of time speaking to your members there. You know, change of tune as we head into 2025. If I'm just looking at the price action from Friday, it looked a lot

like what we saw in 2024. I saw some of those trillion dollar meme stocks rallying like crazy. Tesla was up eight and a half percent. NVIDIA was up four and a half percent. Consumer discretionary led. Obviously, that's Amazon and that is Tesla. But a lot of the same things that went on in 2024 were going on last week as we started 2025. Yeah. Well, and the day before that, we had a pretty ugly day in the market. So there's been whiplash already. We ended the year on a bumpy note, started the year on kind of a bumpy note.

And here we are in this waiting game for more policy clarity. So what am I looking forward to in 2025? I think investors are going to have to focus on different things in 2025. And what I mean by that is they're going to have to focus on earning strength. They're going to have to focus on profit margin. They're going to have to stop focusing so much on momentum. So right now, we've got obviously still some good risk appetite in the market. But I think there's going to have to be some focus on other places that are not

trading at all time highs as opportunities for growth, as opportunities for valuations. And we're going to have to pay closer attention to the results that actually come in from a fundamental perspective rather than just looking at it as, OK, what's done well over the last three months? Where are the technical factors moving? Because I think technicals have been such a big conversation in investors' minds for the last year.

Yeah, I think the point that you made about policy is going to be one of the most important ones as you think about it. I saw yields higher this morning as I started to look at the news. The Washington Post came out with a story that maybe some of the tariffs that the Trump administration or the incoming Trump administration might impose might be less than expected. Guy, you saw the dollar come back. You saw yields come back. So that's going to be a big story. We have a report out of Mike Wilson that we're going to hit in a couple of minutes. He's talking about what

that kind of yield move might mean for equities. I think what Liz is talking about on the earnings front, we've been tracking fact sets, what, 13%, 14% expected year-over-year earnings growth for 2025. And we're going to get a good look right out of the gate next week with a lot of the bank earnings guy. When you think about the yield move, you think about the dollar, you think about what expectations are coming out of the banks next week. I mean, you got to all

of what Liz is just kind of talking about in one week coming up, especially as you talk about a little bit of the whiplash that we saw last week. Yeah, Liz is spot on as usual. And, you know, Peter Bookvar put out a note, but this is something we've talked about as well. This week alone, there's $119 billion worth

of debt being issued by the Treasury. By the way, this year alone, it's $10 trillion of maturing debt, $6 trillion are bills, $4 trillion being longer dated stuff, and are obviously financing this at much higher yields than they were initially expected.

put on and for me it's always been sort of the supply and demand thing on top of probably a stickier inflation picture than the market probably thought was possible at this point although not as bad as i thought it was going to be but again just as in terms of supply and demand

That's one of the reasons why I think yields will still surprise people to the upside. And this yield curve continues to steep and Elizabeth can speak to this. I think we're at about 32 or 33 basis points or so, probably as steep as we've been in quite some time. And if you go back and sort of listen to what Liz has said over the years, it's not the inversion that gets you, it's the re-steepening. And we're obviously right in the midst of that now. And I don't think the market, in my opinion, Dan, is properly taking into consideration

higher yields mean and the reason why yields are going higher, which I think is equally important. I think a lot of the optimists will say yields are going higher because the economy continues to improve. I think that's a very small part of it. I think it comes down to supply and demand in the market demanding a

a higher rate of interest to buy our debt. Let's even just look at what's happened this morning. So we've got a 10-year sitting at 462 as of this coming out of my mouth. The announcement of maybe a little bit more clarity on tariffs or at least a proposed tariff plan shot those yields back up. We actually had been trading below 460 earlier in the morning. So shot those yields back up. Stocks seem

not bothered by this at this point. They're flat-ish to up and tech stocks are up quite a bit. Now, this is one of those relationship problems. Yields up, growth stocks up. That cannot continue because you've got a discount rate that goes up. You've got growth that you would probably pay less for in the current moment because of that discount rate. So we have a dislocation in the

And I don't know exactly what that's from. Perhaps it's that tariffs won't be as broad reaching as people had thought they might be. But at the same time, if you've got yields still on this rise and a 10 year that's comfortably above four and a half now, which we've talked about as the critical point where stocks stop liking it, I think we're in a precarious spot, at least as far as yields go. And especially to the point about everything that's happening in the treasury market in 2025. On the-

yield front, I get it. We're stuck here. I do see this move in crude over the last week or so. It's trading at two-month highs, which I think is kind of interesting in the mid-70s. We also have some data out of China that continues to be weak. We saw their stock market have a tough time over the last week or so. The headline this morning was that Chinese policymakers are trying to

reassure investors there. That's not a great sound right there. But, you know, the one thing that sticks out to me is this growth versus whatever trade you want. I mean, here we are right back to it. The outperformance in semis, you know, we're shortly after the opening here. I see the SMH up nearly 4% and I see the IGV unchanged. Look at what's moving right now. Micron's up 10%. You know,

ARM is up a ton. NVIDIA is back up three and a half percent or so, up nearly 10% on the year. Now, Foxconn, which is obviously one of the largest manufacturers of NVIDIA chips, put out some data about December, much better than expected. But, you know, some of the

caution that should be out there is what's the outlook for Q1 look like? We heard some stuff out of Microsoft, you know, about their expected spend on infrastructure as it relates to data centers and the like. But there's also a headline that one of their data centers that they've been building out in Wisconsin for their partnership with OpenAI has been put on hold a little bit for that second phase of the build out. So there's a lot of push and pull. Guy, what do you make of what Liz is kind of suggesting in a way is that

a continuation of the growth momentum trade is not likely to kind of end particularly well in an environment where you have yields stuck at 4.6 or higher. Well, she's right. First of all, there's a lot of things going on. I mean, I do think there's this early...

in the year money flows into these names. People that may have missed last year are not going to make the same mistake twice necessarily. It's like that scene out of The Hunt for Red October. The first time he did not arm the missiles and then Sean Connery says he won't make that same mistake twice. And I think that's what we're looking at now. But if you recall, the same missiles that he then subsequently armed...

went back and killed him. So be careful on that front, number one, for you Hunt for Red October fans. Number two, very quietly, right before our very eyes, names like NVIDIA, which is now, I think, a $3.7 trillion company again, is probably trading on the back of the envelope 18 times next year's sales

which again, you know this better than anybody, Dan. I mean, that's probably twice what the norm is. And the optimists will say they're going to grow into that. We'll see. At 76% margins, it's hard to believe that those margins are not going to be degraded as competition comes in. But to Liz's point, the market is making a bet right now that both can be true. And I just don't think almost by definition it can. And if you're of the belief like I am that rates can continue to surprise the upside, you know, I thought,

this would be the level where tech sort of takes a breather. And quite frankly, that's what it looked like at times over the last couple of weeks. But I think there's going to be a line in the sand where the market says, you know what, this is not good for equities. Yeah. The one thing I'll just say is that, you know, following that December 18th Fed

We saw what happened to growth stocks. They absolutely got killed. I think investors kind of showed their hands a little bit the first moment they had the opportunity to take profits. They did. I guess the path of least resistance is clearly higher. You know, one thing I just want to talk about as far as this semi-trade and Gene Munster and I talked about it on OK Computer a few weeks ago. We're going to talk about it again. Guy, you and I have been talking about it on Fast Money, this idea of custom silicon, right? So you have Broadcom partnering with a lot of NVIDIA's customers, right?

right, to create their own GPUs. They're going to go into their data centers. They're kind of sick of the hold that NVIDIA has from a pricing standpoint. And so it's not just Broadcom, but it's also Marvell. They had a huge move there. Marvell's taken Amazon as a customer from Broadcom. This is going to be a big theme, I think, in 2025. Gina and I are going to talk about that later. It's going to drop tomorrow on OK Computer. But Liz, you know, as you broaden out the story away from the names themselves,

and the sectors we've been talking about. You know, this is from Mike Wilson this morning. The correlation between the S&P 500 index and bond yields has turned decisively negative at the 10-year yield climb above 4.5%. So that's something we were just talking about. We think 2025 could be a year of two halves with market-friendly policies such as potential tax cuts likely to shore up stocks later in the year. The divergence

can close in two ways. Either breadth improves for the S&P 500 or trades closer to its 200-day moving average. We know where that is. It's much lower. So Liz, when you think about those two halves, and I guess this is what we're alluding to in a way, at what point will equity investors start to take notice about yields possibly on their way back towards 5%?

Well, I think they had noticed. And what we saw in the end of December and even earlier this year is that equities did struggle when we got near or above that four and a half percent level. And I'm actually more inclined to say that today is more of an anomaly than it is the sign of a new pattern where equities just continue to go up. The other thing that happened

in the second half of December is that we saw a ton of concentration again in the market. So this divergence between, you know, let's say the top 10 names, the biggest 10 names or mega caps in general versus the rest of the market continues to grow. And I read an article last night on Bloomberg that that divergence, the amount of that divergence is actually only second to what happened in the dot-com bust.

So then this was part of a Goldman report that came out months ago, positing that 3% returns should be more of the norm for the next year or so because of the concentration that we've seen. So what I'm saying is I don't think we want this concentration to continue. We don't want mega caps to be the ones to lead this again because it actually puts the market in more of a fragile position. The first half of this year, and especially the first quarter of this year, I would expect these bumps to continue because, again, we don't have clarity.

And then there are other things that are out of the control of policymakers, things like the fact that inflation usually surprises to the upside in the first quarter. That could happen again this year. Last year, the market didn't like it. I wouldn't expect the market to like it this year if it occurs. So I do think that we're going to see volatility through the first quarter.

The second quarter, hopefully we get a little more clarity on policy, whether we like the policies or not. At least we might have some more clarity on what they're going to look like. And then the second half of the year, and perhaps this is Mike's point, the second half of the year is when the market can actually get used to, OK, what is the new normal? What do the next three years look like?

Yeah, listen, it's interesting the points that he brings up and Elizabeth sort of adds on to that. But I'll say this as well. We've talked about this for months, if not longer, that valuation is not a timing tool. And we point that out because we're not looking for people to trade around that. Yet there are a number of different things that continue to sort of flash red. And forget about the Buffett indicator, which is now probably either side of 208%, which everybody seems to have forgotten.

And you read about now people discounting it, saying, you know, this was something put in place 30 or 40 years ago by somebody who the world has potentially passed by. I don't think that's the case. But there are other things as well. The cyclically adjusted P.E., the CAPE ratio is trading around 38 for context.

That's a median of that is about a 17. I think we topped out in the low 40s during the dot com. This is the highest we've seen since then. Again, not a timing indicator, but something that suggests the market is clearly stretched. And there are other things as well. Liz mentioned the small amount of stocks that are driving this entire thing. If you peruse the internet and, you know, I'm probably looking for things that

sort of galvanized my thought process. But we're looking at levels in terms of stocks driving performance that we haven't seen since the late 1920s. And that's not hyperbole. It just happens to be true. So all those things continue to be out there. And what I say over and over again, the only thing that's changed, quite frankly, is the performance of the market. And this is something we mentioned last week, Dan, before I throw it back to you. One thing that I got wrong clearly last year, although I understood it,

was the magnitude of passive investing. And last year, a trillion dollars found their way into mutual funds and ETFs, which was a record. And you just think about that. Those flows sort of override everything. They override valuation, sentiment, news flow, exogenous risks that are out there. The market doesn't seem to care.

And what we've learned is, yeah, it might care for a day or two like we saw on December 18th and again on December 27th. But those are 24-hour events. What is interesting quickly, though, we did see the VIX at one point last week, I believe, north of 19.5 on Friday.

what was not a huge move to the downside in the broader market. So I'll say this, I think the VIX is going to be something you have to keep your eye on early this year. That 16 and a half VIX, especially with Thursday's close, right? And then we have Monday, the 20th close. You'd think that you'd probably start to see lower lows

levels in the VIX as traders start to price in how many days are basically not going to be trading. So the fact that you have that 16.5 VIX suggests that traders are a little bit worried about downside. The other thing I'll just say, we talked about the fateful eight, right? And we know that Broadcom just joined that mag seven as it got to that kind of trillion dollar level. And a lot of folks were talking about, well, this is a bullish thing, right? That you're starting to see other names start

to participate that had been going sideways. Broadcom was clearly one of those names, right? And then you thought about NVIDIA. Well, money was coming out of NVIDIA going into Broadcom in Marvell. Well, as I look at NVIDIA right now, it's up 19% from those December 18th lows. If it were to close, I don't know, a couple bucks

higher, it's making a new closing high. So you think about that, you have this consolidation, and then you're possibly breaking out again. So to the point about that concentration, I think the market's fate is in the hands of those eight stocks, which brings me to that kind of Microsoft announcement. If they're starting to piece together some of the pausing in spending, despite what the company is saying about $80 billion in spending, more than half of it here in the US on data center build out, you put all

some of that stuff together and you start saying, okay, maybe this trade is starting to slow down a little bit. But that brings me to something that we're talking about. Concentration. We're talking about elevated volatility levels. Liz, I want to get your take on this because here's a Bloomberg story out this morning about a trader that I've never heard of, Steve Diggle. It says, trader who made billions in 08 returns to market on bet on market swings. And this is the really important part. So his firm is,

in 2007, 2008, made $3 billion. And it was basically making wagers on volatility. We know what happened there. It was kind of the 100-year storm. But this is the quote from Diggle that I find really interesting. The number of fault lines out there today are greater, and the chances of something going wrong are significantly greater. But risk prices have to come down. And so this is really interesting. So we are kind of in the analogous situation to where we were in 05 to 07. Now,

we haven't heard too many folks drawing comparisons to the great financial crisis. We've heard plenty of folks talking about comparisons to the dot-com. Do you think the higher this market goes, driven by that concentration, that there's more risk to extreme downside volatility? Because again, it's hard to make these predictions this early in the year. We don't know what the policies are going to be like. We don't know how investors get comfortable with

new levels or yields and the like here. But when you start hearing folks who have this sort of track record as this guy did in the financial crisis kind of talk about how it's analogous to this and could be greater, it's got to get your antennas up a little bit. Yeah, well, I saw a clip today of Eddie Ardeni saying that he expects a bumpy year, and that got my antennas up because Eddie Ardeni is usually pretty bullish. So I think it is important to listen to these people. First of all, to your question about

the higher that this concentration gets and the higher that those stocks go, does that increase the risk of a big drawdown? In those stocks, yes, I think it does. And I'll use one of Guy's favorite movie quotes, Big Tree Fall Hard, because you've got a lot of these names that have run up so much, mostly driven by multiple expansion, maybe half and half driven, maybe a little more than half driven by multiple expansion. But that multiple expansion is what's at risk. So I think those stocks do end up seeing more of the volatility.

The reason that we're drawing so many comparisons to '02, '01, '02 is because a lot of this has been tech-driven. So it makes more sense to draw comparisons to that. When you think about what did happen in '07 through '09-ish, that was obviously not tech-driven and a lot of the big risk was that there were all these interconnected pieces that we didn't really know about until it all came apart.

If that's the case here, and we've got a lot of interconnectedness, and I can think of a couple different ways that might happen, at least in market structure, I don't think that's the case in consumer balance sheets. And that was the big issue in 07-08, where not only was it a financial crisis that was driven by Wall Street exposure and excessive risk taking that was occurring in a lot of those big financial firms, but

all of America was exposed to that same risk in their own equity, in their own borrowing. I don't see that as the same

today. That's not to say that there isn't some sort of what he calls a fault line out there that we haven't figured out, that there is some interconnectedness. I would say the most obvious suggestion would be something like if you've got all of these Meg7 stocks or just mega caps in general, let's say they do give back a lot of their multiple expansion. Then go the ETFs that are weighted towards those Meg7 stocks. Then go the investors that are offsides and they're

positioning because of all those ETFs. So there is a domino effect that could very easily play out. Does that affect the entirety of America's consumer balance sheets? I don't think so, but we have to wait and see. Yeah, there's a lot there. I mean, and Liz is right to point out it is different through that lens. But what's not different, and it might be worse, is just the amount of debt now consumers have accumulated. Consumer household debt is now either side of $18 trillion. That's a record. We talk about

credit card debt all the time. I think that's approaching $1.2 trillion, if not through it. And that's at an average rate, I think, just north of 23%. So that's fine as long as the unemployment rate stays where it is, I guess. But I'm one of the people that think that's not going to be the case. And that will surprise early this year as well. So that's out there. And obviously, this is consumer-driven economy. And just going back to the concentration, I just looked at something

2% of the S&P 500 companies, so that's 10 stocks, you can do that math, represent 40% of the size of the S&P 500. Not the performance, just the absolute size. And again, numbers like that we haven't seen in probably close to 100 or so years. And

Those things are all out there. So for all the people that say, you know, it's broadening rally and those types of things, yeah, there's some one-off stocks here and there around the sides, but there's no denying, and the math backs it up, that this is still a market that's dominated by a handful to 10 names. And, you know, again, passive investing, Elizabeth just mentioned ETFs and mutual fund flows and those things. The reason why Apple does as well as it does is not because of the greatness of Apple. That's clearly part of it.

But they've managed to get themselves into now, I think, 460 or so ETFs, of which 400 of them, Apple is a top 15, 1.5 holding. And so with each day that money flows in, by definition, Apple wins to that. Now, we saw a downdraft in Apple last week for reasons that I really can't identify. But what works to the upside with passive ETFs

works equally well, if not faster, to the downside when passive becomes active. And I've said that 100 times and I'll continue to say it. And I also think that's a risk that the market's not taking into consideration. You talk about that concentration, you talk about the weighting of those 10 stocks in the S&P 500. So we've never had 10 that are greater than 40% of the weight of the index of 500. On the performance level, NVIDIA was close to 25%.

of the performance of the S&P 500 last year. And when you think about, I'm just calling them the fateful eight because it is in the hands of those eight stocks when you think about it, right? So there just is not possibly enough broadening out. If the Gen AI trade takes a pause and those stocks

like Liz says, takes a few turns off of their multiple because of that multiple expansion got ahead of the fundamentals last year, the market's going to go lower. And it goes back to kind of what Mike Wilson's suggesting in that tale of two halves or whatever you want to call it. If the S&P were to trade back towards that 200-day moving average,

it's only a 9% drawdown. I mean, when you think about it, we had a 9% drawdown last year. So you just need some of those things not to happen. You need Diggle not to be right about those fault lines. You know, you already have bank stocks that are down 8.5% or so. I think the BKX is from those recent highs. So maybe you have some rotation out of some of those more cyclical names as they start to price in higher yields and maybe slower growth to some degree.

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Liz, let's just talk about this in the last couple of minutes. What are some of the big surprises that you might see, right? So we just kind of laid out, we're trying to pick some holes in what higher yields mean, what maybe slower growth means, maybe what peak margins mean, maybe what a pausing of this Gen AI trade means.

What are some things that could surprise you to the upside? Because it's a new year and you want to be optimistic about what might happen. We talked about policy. Maybe the tariff policy is not going to be worse than expected. Maybe the tax cuts that get extended, you know what I mean, help corporate profits and the like here. I mean, there's a lot of things to look out and say, OK, I mean, maybe things aren't as bad as you think.

think and maybe a new year, maybe there's new possibilities. Maybe there's new sectors that might kind of take the lead here. Again, I go back to the fateful eight. They can't pause or go lower and have the market go higher, in my opinion, though. Yeah. So what could surprise us? I think what could surprise us, if I just want to do it in one sentence, is that old economy stocks actually lead this year.

And let me be more specific about that. So when you look at if investors have to pay more attention to earnings, we have to pay more attention to fundamentals to choose our spots. There are a lot of sectors actually that are not trading at all time highs. They lagged quite a bit in 2024, but they're expected to show either a big reversal in earnings growth in 2025.

or really strong earnings growth, just generally speaking. So if you look at what the expectations are for earnings across the board, tech is still expected to lead the pack. But second on that list is healthcare. Then you've got things like materials, industrials in there. So some of those, what we would probably consider old economy names and the tangible,

economy names are ones that could do really well in 25, partially because the valuations are attractive. And if people are trying to either rotate out of tech or if they get spooked because tech doesn't take off like it used to or it sees more volatility, I don't think people are ready to come out of the equity market yet.

barring some big disaster. So they're going to look for other spots in equities. I think healthcare can be a beneficiary of that. Pharma and biotech, particularly if we're looking for growth. I think industrials can be a beneficiary of that. I think materials can be a beneficiary of that, especially if inflation continues to heat up.

There are going to be surprises this year, and I wish that I could identify a few. But I think in terms of old economy, Elizabeth is right. I mean, there are a lot of those names out there that are flying to the radar screen that you can actually make a cohesive and cogent argument on just in terms of valuation. And if we do at some point see a rotation out of the names that we talk about seemingly every day, I think they're going to be the winners. I think

The valuations of banks, which people will say are reasonable, I think one of the surprises this year might be the underperformance of banks in an environment that they find themselves in, especially if the consumer is as strapped as I believe that they are. A lot of people are pointing to regulations going away and sort of the tailwinds that bank has. I would submit that

That's probably priced into some of the moves that we saw in a lot of those names late last year into early this year. So that's that. And the other thing I would mention real quick is, you know, healthcare, which everybody loved last year, obviously fell on some hard times. You know, I think in the hunt for valuation, there's some big cap pharma names out there that could surprise the upside as well. You mentioned energy. Nobody's really talking about it right now because I think there have been so many headhunting

Yeah, I guess the surprise for me might be accrual.

cooling of some of those geopolitical fears, right? Maybe less economic tensions as it relates to tariffs. Maybe China finally gets back on its horse a little bit. We know that there was some optimism about all the stimulus. This is going back a few months ago. The stock market there definitely got a lot of investors excited and since has pulled back a lot of those gains. But maybe it's metals and basic materials and miners and the like. And I know a name that you keep a close eye on this FCX. I mean, it's been

amazingly volatile over the last year. I think there's four moves of 30%. And here it is now. It's just back towards those 52-week lows made early last year. Any better data out of China? Maybe you see copper rally. Maybe you see some of these miners rally. So that could be kind of interesting from a trading perspective because the sentiment is so bad there. But again,

We're going to try to do a better job on the sector front. I think Guy said, I mean, no one knows where the broad market is. And maybe Liz is correct that you'll see some more rotations out of some of these big trades from last year and some of these underappreciated stuff to both of your points. Maybe it's healthcare, maybe it's energy, maybe it's metals and minings, right? So we're going to do our best to kind of pick out some individual names and some sector stuff as we go through early this year. But I think that's about it, guys. I mean, we covered a lot of ground here. We're

fired up about 2025. We have a new on the tape dropping on Wednesdays. So that's going to be Monday, Wednesday, Friday. We're going to be filling in with a bunch of Fridays with market call over the next month or so. But that's about it. Liz Thomas. No, no, no. That's not it. I would be remiss if I did not point out that the Packers of Green Bay, Elizabeth Packers of Green Bay, find themselves in the playoffs yet again. Now, a little dinged going into the playoffs, but I think

you know, with a couple of days off and getting into the trainer's room, you know, I think they'll be good to go. So congratulations, Elizabeth Young Thomas and the Green Bay Packers. Well, and I, I will not be a sore loser, but congratulations to any though, maybe the one bears fan who's out there. You beat us yesterday at Lambeau. That has not happened since 2018. It was ugly. It was not fun to watch. Hopefully we can start the playoffs on a much better note.

Yeah, well, there you go. That NFC Norris division is rocking and rolling with three teams in there in the playoffs. That's pretty impressive. I think the Lions are going to roll right through this thing. I can't wait to see, Guy, a Lions-Eagles NFC championship. That will be one for the ages. What do you think about that?

that. Now, look, I mean, I think there's a collision course there without question. But if you look at the Rams, they've been playing some pretty significant football over the last seven or eight weeks, and nobody's paying any attention to them. That's a team that when they figure things out, they are a dangerous squad. So don't discount the Rams. And on the other side of the ledger, obviously, everybody loves the Chiefs. I'm one that thinks the Chiefs are going to get knocked off

in the playoffs. Obviously, everybody loves the Bills of Buffalo, but don't discount those Chargers out there on the West Coast who, again, are sort of flying under the radar. By the way, we have to just say it. SoFi Stadium is rocking with

the Rams and the Chargers. I mean, come on. You just mentioned the two teams that play at SoFi Stadium. I love to hear it. And I love watching that stadium just light up. It is one of the coolest places to watch a game. Well, by the way, there's probably not a better naming trade. We're just going to say it. And I know we're, you know what I mean? We're in that camp right now, but a better stadium name.

naming trade. The first year, I think you guys had the Super Bowl. You had the NFC Championship. You had the Super Bowl, and now you have two teams in the playoffs. So exciting stuff. And I've been there, Liz. You invited me out to the NFC Championship. It was Niners-Rams. I want to say that three years ago or so. And that is a truly spectacular stadium to watch anything. I know you were there for Taylor Swift. You're probably more excited about that.

for the Arras tour than you were for the Rams there. So, all right, listen, I appreciate it here this morning, you people being with us. We got three days a week in 2025 of On the Tape podcast. We appreciate you being here with us. See you later. Thanks again to our presenting sponsors, CME Group, iConnections, FactSet, and SoFi. If you like what you heard, make sure you hit follow and leave us a review. It helps other people find the show, and we also want to hear from you. Email us at contact

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