Positioning into Year-End 11/27/24
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I'm scot Walker, and you're listening to cnbc halftime report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at twelve eastern listen in. Go on, sera.

Thank you very much, and welcome to the hands on report. I am franColin in for scot Walker frighten end of this hour the fate of the record rallies we had in to the final stretch of this year. Our investment committee is standing by with how they are positioned into the urn journey for the hour.

We have joe terranova, Steve wise, shanna, osha and the ot safe. But first we take a quick check of the markets right now, taking a look authorized sees in the red right now the deal back for actually the S A P down a half a percent than as the heart to hit down more than one percent. And really, that's what we need to begin.

John tae nova, when to start off with you, what do you think things leading the markets low? We did see the markets take a slide to the downside following PC, but it's important and know PC was in line. And if you look at important data points in that report, things like personal income, that was actually much Better than expectations. So what he thinks move in the markets lower right now yeah.

Frank, in the reaction in the treasury market was not troubling that all. You've got a ten year treasury yield. It's back towards four in court. It's down six spaces point.

So let's not blame me on any type of economic condition or an expectation as IT relates to what the federal reserve is going to be doing with th Epace o f r ate c uts i n t wenty t wenty f ive. Today is all about technology. That's the problem.

If you look at the S M P five hundred, sixty one percent of the stocks and the S M P five hundred are actually higher red today. Here's the problem though. If you look at technology, eighty eight percent of the stocks in the S M P five hundred are lower today.

Now the past several weeks, we've been able to avoid a daylight today where technology really drags the entire complex down, because if semicon n doctors were weak, you found strength and software today. Is that not the case? You have semiconductors down.

You have hardware down. You have software down. If I look right now, ninety two percent of software companies, twenty seven software companies in the S N.

P. Are down today. Ninety percent of semiconductor companies, there's two of them of the S.

P. They're down today. So that's clearly the problem right now. I don't think it's something ownerless overall for investors to think about as we move in the twenty twenty five. But certainly, the index is gonna struggle if you lose the entirety of the technology sector.

Shana, agree, disagree with jose. take. Do you believe the PC was a fact at all? And important to know IT was in line and a number of metrics that they were actually very strong.

No, I think our our view overall, Frank, and thanks again for perhaps me um is you around you know what the fed will do is really going to take A A focus more on fiscal policy than monetary policy in twenty twenty five. And so our view is that PC is not really drive this. I think the chAllenge that joe just articulated, I want to take that a step further.

And you know there's been this talk about this vulnerability evaluation in the tech space um and also this compressed sion of the delta between earnings growth of the top seven or ten names and the rest of the asp five hundred. And I think what you're seeing is that we're at the end of earning season, right? We're not able to see the manifestation, the realization of that continued earnings growth until kind of the next couple of quarters.

And so I do think you're going to see some of these days, Frank, where we're sort of seeking or searching for a rational for the cell off in tech that goes beyond just valuations because, Frankly, they haven't been a deterrent thus far in in, in measure. But I do think that what we're really looking for is this confluence of stronger earnings growth in these sectors, this pro business foundation that's gonna brought in from trump two point o administration. And but we would be naive to think that if there are questions about demand or there is question that these earnings could compress further based on weaker guidance going into twenty twenty five, I think we would be naive not to title pate that we could have some of these days where the tech sector and its concentration just proves to be too much um to rally the market. And even if we have some strength outside of IT.

yes, i'm going to come over to you right now. We can evaluation the evaluation. Is that all of factor or you have to keep mind, the small caps are training IT about twenty nine times compared to the S M P. Treating about twenty three times for our earnings in small caps are actually up today's started.

So i'll think that what I wanted go back to the tech sector or so. H for one of the things that you're seeing the Taylor in behind financials and small cabs, 但是 后 have a lot of financials behind them as well。 So you've got that positive uh, you sector rotation into financials, which contained so much of the small caps.

You are seeing that movement of money going in that with regard to technology. Thank thank you. Had a couple of key earnings yesterday and they were dell out workday and all of them you know did not hit the expectations that investors wanted.

That caused a bit of a cell off in, in the software named as as joe mentioned. So we bring that. And you know if if semis are down, software is down, uh, you're sing selling across the software sector, whether it's or go sales force.

And I think that bringing down some of the tech sector and probably some rotating out of there just because expectations were so high and the sale cycles for a lot of these companies, there's the embedded in all of them to show. I think you you have to be careful as to what of the future is. I still like that space a lot. And I think the opportunity there is going to be uh, a much, much Better now, you know so right.

you are not the only percent likes that space alive. Number of notes out about tech today, ever. R, S, I, out with one talking about the trip. Q, sang. In part, it's too premature to put the succession plan in place, basically saying that they believe the texas to continue to have leadership saying that, you know, apples on the verge of a breakout microsoft flat for months that software is sees amazon and test that are leading the coral court consumer charge. They also look at meta just being meet up up more than sixty percent year date, and then look at google on support in the two hundred day moving average. Why someone I can come over to you obviously text on a bit of pressure today, but you believe from now, at least two year end as a resume leadership.

you know it's never that simple, Frank, as you know. And if you take if you want to work, Josie and and and the others changed, right? All have valid viewpoints.

Put those together in and i'll ask something to that as well. Um yes, I believe tech is source of bonds. Uh you know between the how goes drive in the market as well as momentum players drive in the market.

Momentum in the big cat players, spite reaching new highs overall in the queue has prety much died. And then you add in the announcement will talk about later that we got from dell. And then demand gets pulled into question like is their demand and demand and apparently is a couple of cores off and then um which can help with terrorist.

So I take a look at taiwan's seme, for example. I mean, let's come off their highs of two dollars, uh, meaningfully off. And even though taiwan not pour the dialogue on tips, uh, you still have to wonder about how that's going to play out.

So you right now, you're still transitioning from all the news being great news for tech for most of the last couple years to hey, maybe I got to find some place cells. This has been a great source. Profits valuations actually not particularly excessively, but none of less.

They are the piggy bank for funding the rest of the market. Um so I do think it'll be in a leadership position. The fundament will remain strong. I can talent can be through the end of the year, but it's going to be into next year.

And then I take a look actually at the deer and the cast, those kind of names and a look at valuation is not being supported by the fundamental, particularly with rates where they are. And rates the most interest thing to me because ten years been coming down after having a nice move up, and that is supporting those valuations for now. But you still have high real rates. And what's that going to do to the market? I do think that's a play today.

You know why he mentioned terrorist? Obviously, the president left out with an announcement the night before yesterday, but yesterday we closed that records for the S M, P. And the the mark just kind of shrugged IT off in the jp Morgan note today where they gave out there twenty twenty Price target.

There was a line. If you go deeper in there, they will look at terms china. I'm going to start with you on this one.

If you don't mind, they say in part the negative S M P five hundred E P S impact from sixty percent terrain, all chinese imports bored. No sixty percent was not announced. IT could be as much as fifteen dollars.

And just to put that in context, four years to seventy and they continue to say it's worth remembering that the more consumer facing tariff s were not imposed at all, the one trump one point out, the first term in any broad based escalates and goods under these terrors could possibly have a noticeably larger impact than previously. Agree with that take is, is that possible on this low volume day that people are starting? Maybe even think about the potential impact .

of these terrifying well, I think a good a good note would be to go back and look in the trump administration about how many tweet were sent um and how many tweet were sent around terror. I think there almost nine hundred tweet that were sent around terror. So I think we should steal ourselves um for continue comment very coming via this type of platform.

I think the important point here though is that you if we are looking at some of those consumer facing terrorists um even with the terrorists that we're put into place, it's estimated that americans digested american consumers digested eighty to one hundred percent of those Price increases back in in trump one point out. So and you think about the dynamic environment we have now, Frank, we don't have as much pricing power. And so IT would be, you know, foreseeable that you could see that consumer impact, particularly of its own goods.

I would say the other thing to really think about. Is that we've been experiencing goods deflation over the last year and a half or so, which has really helped the fed get closer to its target because we haven't seen that same easy on the service side, particularly areas like insurance. So there are a lot of ripple effects as IT relates to these terrorists. But I think you until some things written in and that we get to the point where actually feeling like this is close to true implementation, I think that is going to be difficult at the industry level to be able to select those areas. However, if you look across the broad landscape, there are parts of the investigate universe that are potentially more vulnerable, and investors should start to include that in their calculus as we move into twenty five.

Yeah, speaking of that, so I am going to come over to you when we look at the earnings estimates for q four and twenty twenty five, I mean, they're considerably lower than they were just a few weeks ago. If you go back to october first, look at q four back on october first, IT was thirteen percent. Today is at ten percent.

Q one of twenty twenty five IT was over four hundred percent. Now it's just under thirteen percent. How do you view these revisions when IT comes? The E.

P. S. estimates. But at the same time, we're seeing such bullish calls.

Again, I just mentioned jp Morgans call for the S M P. Next year, sixty five hundred. I was looking on the less more. And standing sixty five hundred, goldin is sixty five hundred. Ubs at sixty six hundred.

And so I think, Frank, part of the the equation there is the earnings route is really going to come from the large cap and and that's what people are betting on, especially the time. So I can give you don't see that and you see disappointments that could bring the market down. But the big boys, if if they do perform, we will keep writing the market.

But again, I think the opportunity is going to be a lot more on the other four ninety three, especially when they have earnings growth on some, the other. So expectations are high. There's no question.

Again, I going to work for last night. If you under perform, you are going to get a cell off. And I think that's where the key is going to be going forward for the next couple of quarters.

Joe, coming over to you. I mean, when we look at ahead right now, I know we just talked about weakness and tech right now, I talk you about the yeah no forever core, they believe that text going to would continue to have leadership. But should we started looking at these estimates when IT comes to earnings and and maybe starting to factor or in and not only in proposal when IT comes to tariff s but the idea that they may be inflationary, that they could hurt the consumer, things like that.

well, look less. In the first administration, I think jane mentioned this. They were not inflationary.

Most of the tariff s that were implemented were applied to capital and intermediate goods. And I heard before a sixty percent figure for china. We don't know.

We're going to get to that extreme level. Currently, the agreed waited tariff on china is twelve percent. So that's a big leap to take. Also thinking about tariff, let's again, let's understand something. A lot of what a lot of what gets lost in the message of the market sometimes is the way people are, position and sentiment.

So I go back to how we're trading today, and I point directly at positioning itself because if you want to pinpoint tariff s towards a technology cell off, I understand that with semiconductors, but IT doesn't apply with software. Software is relatively a immune to tiffs. Look at the max 7。 The entire mac 7 are down today。 So I think gets more positioning than anything else.

And I think IT goes back to the conversation that's been front and center over the last week, which is is IT finally, time for these equal waited strategies to outperform. We've seen strengths and financials. We've seen strengths and industrials.

We've seen broadening out. You've got health care today. That seems as though IT looks as if he wants to awakened. And I think when you turn the counter to twenty twenty five, that's the important thing for you to think about what other places can I go to.

That is not technology because we're not in a twenty twenty three world where you're going to have to concentrate directly towards semiconductors. And the mag seven is a much Better or environment or more compelling environment for investors. And I think that's the critical question josey .

your point in to look at the S M P equal weight verses the market have IT in index, the S M P could waited the outperforming. The regular S M P has just call IT that by one percent of the election. So we are to continue to see that broadly out art time out for our chart of the day, dell share, they are tumbling on earnings and skip Christinia parts and with much more was drawing that big move to the downside. Chris.

thank you. Frankwell dels. Getting squeeze by the AI chip waiting game, forcing the server giant to lower revenue estimates.

sure. The delayed PC upgrade cycle did play a part, as we saw with hp q as well. But there's another critical factor, their heavy reliance on individual chips.

During yesterday's, learnings called management revealed that AI demand was, quote, shifting to black wall, that certain videos, latest GPU chip iteration, their aai server pipes may have jumped fifty percent quarter over quarter, but dell can't convert that order book to finish and ships products until IT gets invidia GPS the latest ones. They had to slashed their full year guidance as well. And that's exactly when you saw the stock taken nose die from that negative four percent to down ten percent, leading to the the negative sale today.

Management though was candidate about the quote, unpredictable order of A I sober demand something super micro also reiterated super micro CEO on learnings call in quote we're asking in video every day, we have a very strong offering waiting for the chips. So we need in videos quick support with the videos annual product cycle creating this on or this predictable pattern. We might be looking at a new Normal and annual digestion period that i'm calling for big tech customers and micron could actually be next. Jordan klein from the zoo tells me that he sees some risk for earnings if IT takes one to two more quarters to rap blackwell volumes, enough to drive that memory upside. The message, though, is clear, waiting on a video, you know, for your bottom and definitely share Price in the near term imports an apple.

Thank you very much. You have a great thankful you do time out to break in dell shareholder and half committed member bill brook on the phone bill and you're traveling for thankful to giving that's what you're not with this by video right now. But I just want to get to take on the quarter, what did you make up knowing what we're still had to say, but which you saw the earnings call, the numbers themselves and some of the misses and some curious yeah.

I would reinterred what Christina have the AI server sales for of for you fall short of expectation and it's just really a timing issue with the blackwell in component availability, uh over although you we're also focused on the PC refresh cycle and that was disappointed. You know the outlook there was worse than expected. And we were thinking that people been saying one of these quarters is going to bite him out.

And again, and still hasn't. We didn't see that from hp earnings either. So that was a fear. The PC division remains weak and drags on A I at server momentum a over, although a ipc likely won't drive the growth. And twenty six, and I think that, that to get Christain and how I started talking off.

But I think that just kind of pushes out expections for us though, you know, this is a sea that we've planted. And if you take a step back from the August lows, the stock is rally is nearly seventy percent. The big move so is given up a little bit here today. I'd like to see IT holds IT above one fifteen over the coming weeks. So we may look at little bit to IT.

You may look at little bit to IT. I also want to come back to one thing that you said that the PC refresh cycle in twenty twenty six, I I got to be a honestly you bill. I had someone on from a deal on my show earlier this year.

They said the PC refresh I I was going to start in twenty twenty five. And remember, back in twenty twenty three people said the PC refresh ycl is going to start in twenty twenty four. This cycle seems to continue to get pushed out. Why you have so much confidence now in twenty, twenty six?

Well, I think that we could start seeing IT in twenty and twenty five. It's really the factor of driving the revenue growth. Where's you going to make a difference from the explanation? Remember, all the tech names is not what you doing for me now.

It's what are you going to do for me in the future. So you see that revenue growth is already Price stand. I'd like to see IT really pick up. So I think we see an impact in twenty twenty five, but the growth is really going to take place in twenty twenty six.

Bill brook, dell technology shareholders saying he's gonna think about buying a little bit more, bill. Great to see you have a great thankful and thank you. We're going to move on to work day those years also under some pressure on earnings guidance later than expected. In srd, you actually say you're onna buy on today's pull back.

I am I can anything look at the numbers? They brought down their growth, err, and fifteen to fourteen percent, uh, and that really was a function of two really large customers that will close but not in the court that they expected. Additionally, what I like about this is their margins are twenty six percent and they expect go up to thirty percent.

So you've got efficiency in the company that still growing. IT brought down his expectations. Just a little bit of the demand for their products is so large, they're growing overseas.

International demand is really big. I think the Operation here, the stock turing twenty times crash flow, it's really evaluation. We have been seen a long time. And I think again, expectations because A I were so a far ahead of itself, you to buy more of this this Price or even to get new kinds into the I think IT is really opportunity at this time.

You know. So very quickly, do you kind of believe the narrative that the CEO is going to put in forward that the department of government efficiency, that by elon must going to be a tewin for their business? His thought is that the government going to.

Of more of their loads off prem. Amy, from one premise into the cloud, this can be part of this efficiency effort and just can be a big tail win for them. Is that a story that turbine .

I wouldn't say that my thesis um I think you know that, that would be icing on the cake and that would be a great opportunity for for for the company. But it's really the global around the customers moving more towards their software where they can realize how efficient IT is and really how productive is a product that you can use to grow revenue. And I think that's really important in the software spaces supposal. Just cutting calls.

why we're talking about a bunch of different areas of software, server security, hr software. You are piece software when he comes to work day, which you take a just the sector right now. We've seen in a software ralten recent days, but again, under some pressure today. And then we're in a couple of notable companies .

lower their guys well, first, well, let's talk about cyber. The fact of the following being involved with siber companies on the private side is that is that the bind administration held us back from using our full cybercafes ties to combat the capabilities of big four. So trust, not gonna, that trumps gonna lean as he should.

So I think you'll see more opportunity in cyber going forward across across spector, but particularly with defense companies like the lighthouse, for example, or a booz Allen as well. In terms of software, software is just a great sector to being if the valuation is right and is not always right in terms of being more value because they have referring revenue streams and those do deserve a premium. So unlike other companies where you wake up everyday modern, where your order books are going to come from.

So how come you do that as extend to their recurring orders are eighty to one hundred and thirty percent, he gets more than one hundred percent because they are set up selling as well. So I like a software space. IT is driven somewhat by sentiment, and that's what we've seen. But I think it'll be back.

You know, I see your point about value. Some look at the I G B etf, one obviously very closely track p ratio of sixty six times. Sport tonics are coming up the state of retail.

The holiday season kicks in to high gear. We will debate the best ways to play IT. Let's cover up next half times back in just two minutes.

Experiences the power of cnbc prose best deal of the year, track your portfolio from every angle on one, optimize the terms and strictly apply.

And we were back on the half of one report retail as track boards best months since febuary as the holiday shopping season is rapping up our cording. Reagan joins us now as we kick off a critical stretch .

for that retail trade for the retail WEY. For me to say, moving from bigger names to the big five start to the holiday shopping season begins tomorrow online, usually for the major retailers. Even though many of ready started these early cyber deals in october or even so far earlier this month, in november, IT is the most critical week of the year for retail.

The consumer direction, or etf, the X, L, Y has been positive. Five out of six thanksgiving weeks since twenty nine, including twenty twenty four week to date performance. Now twenty twenty one.

That was the only year we're thankful for. Giving week was negative for the X, L, Y. I remember we had a big cold, very scare that week. Now do IT says that spending during the stretch between thanksgiving and cyber day, we'd D A new record high six hundred and fifty box purpose, and that's up fifteen percent from last year. And that means fifty six percent of total holiday budgets ts will be spent to over retails big five.

Interestingly, all household income groups plan to spend more than last year during this stretch, and this weekend is a critical one for most retailers, but traditional department stores and big box stores really rely on IT. It's a big week for maces. In many ways, brain equity tied to the parade as the kick off to the season shows are up four and a half percent this week after its preliminary earnings report, but down about twenty percent year today. And target really needs a joke of cheer after its disappointing quarter. Maybe splay friday and cyber monday sales will do IT up in, harmer, for one thinks, Better positioned in the holiday in the markets, giving a credit shares down fourteen percent months today.

Bank according y are corti ray, and thank you very much. And you d have a great, thankful ving to see art. This dog brought out this conversation. Why someone to come over to you first, what did you make up according? Had to say just the importance of these next five days when IT comes to the holiday season and how are you seeing .

the state of the consumer? Yeah, I mean, look, it's you're in very critical time, the most critical time of the year for retailers between now the next five days goes to you by Christmas. But going into the Christmas holiday, uh, it's pretty mixed overall.

As we saw from the numbers came out, the consumers are pretty good and willing to spend a so you hear from retailers that this and they will blame the economy. But it's funny. The ones that really do well aren't blame the economy.

So to me, it's really about how you execute on the retail time we saw repeated for excuses from target and it's how your position for the holiday in terms of trends and terms of, of inventory. So i'm bullishness on the consumer, and I think it's going to be a good holiday season. But again, you gotta pick the right retailers to invest in.

Who would have thought the gap stores will continue to have form? Conversely, who would have looked for best by advise some like guides? So it's it's faster fan in the sector, super was a good chain yeah actually.

I mean, why to your point and as you mention best bike cut, their annual profit and sales forecasting how IT demands going to be tepic you saw not you maxi raised its full your cells guide. And so IT really depends on which retail ler we're talking about. And i'm going to come over to you, what do you make of this is the stated consumer again, he said these next five days are critical for the holiday shopping season.

Yeah I mean, I think the cave yet here is you know that the it's spent off sided over the last couple of days. You know the consumers going to spend more this year. Well, of course you're going to spend more this year and no thousand dollars, everything costs more money.

Um so now I think you want to kind of take that apart. I think the chAllenge for retailers the last few holiday seasons, Frank has been knowing knowing really where the consumer is most interested. And so like we've seen volatility, for instance, in the peril Prices over the last couple of CPI reports, best buy with the lake guidance.

Maybe people aren't buying large scale electronics. They're more focused on personal consumer electronics. And so maybe that boats, well, for an apple, I think what's really gonna come down to is that we've got one less we shopping.

But to you know whether that one least last week of shopping is really impacted depends on how much is really in this next five days. And so I think we get a lot of great data from the retailers in week next week. Our view is that we are seeing a little bit of an uptick consumer confidence.

We're seeing an improving consumer situation. But I think IT really comes down to know where the demand is. And I think that's why you're seeing some of this typic guidance because to me and maybe you know once again, surprising some of these retailers as we move into this holiday season.

know, by the way, cording had their own data delayed out. Joe man, and come over to you. Do IT out with its black friday ever mony's spending forecasts.

They say half of people going to buy things for themselves. The average spends going to be about two eighty. So a lot of people also buying for themselves that might actually influence which retailers are doing Better or worse. You have a lot of retail nerves, walmart, deckers, ros, costco, eta, which year to take on these next five days and just the state of the consumer overall.

Well, I think Stevens, right. I think it's about execution. And I think when you when you look at investing in, in retail, there has to be something dramatic that you're getting behind.

So you mention a few names there. Here's some things that I believe have tail winds behind. The first of all, scale. Scale matters of retail. And it's reflected in the positioning that the jot etf has a wall mart and costco.

We've also take in market chair from target, and we witnessed how target has been punished for that in the most recent report. Second, darling, e commerce. And the e commerce right now is a very powerful tale win behind IT the holdings.

We have their amazon coupon, which is south korea e commerce and mercato library. And that I think the last that you have to think about is off Price because their air certainly is a chAllenging environment for lower income consumers and they're turning their attention to companies like T. J.

X. We don't know that in the etf, we do ross stores. And then last you go new once, if you want to go nuon, there's deckers. You talking about the hooker brand, which could be a two billion dollar brand over the coming years, and the international expansion with european and china is still at the early days.

Yeah, you mention T. J. X, by the way, I A. Spiro, cnbc pro.

And that was one of the talks that people traders thought would do well if we had saw a color or inline PC. And that's what we saw. T, G, X shares up one percent. Art time for some headlines right now going to get over our pippo Stevens back and work clips.

Pippa, hey, frying to several president elect Donald rums cabinet and administration picks for targets of, quote, violent threats that from trm spokesperson Caroline love IT, who said the threats, which included bomb threats and swapping or made tuesday night and this morning love a didn't say who was targeted, three senior law enforcement officials briefed on this swatting incident tell nbc news that these were not credible threats and no devices or physical threats were found.

The White house says approved to six hundred and eighty million dollars sale of weapons to israel, officials tell the financial times congress has been notified of the plan deal to provide additional muncie kits and small diameter bombs to israel. After spotting suspicious activity, t. Mobile said I was able to stop a cyber breach early, reportedly by chinese hackers.

The phone Carriers habit security tells bloom the behavior looks to be related to the salt typhoon hacking group, which is allegedly chinese staff sponsored. China has repeatedly denied involvement. Frank.

back to you people. Thank you very much. Our pepper Stevens people have a great thanksgiving.

Youtube.

Frank coming up next are called the day. Including a big upgrade for one material stock that's up fifteen percent of the last three months. But joe and sarratt are in IT much more hap time coming up. Read after this.

Experiences the power of cnbc prose best deal of the year, track your portfolio from every angle on one optimize platform, get the power of C N B C pro and C N B C outcomes. Lash pro, black friday terms and restrictions apply.

And walk back to have time is time for our calls of the day. We're going to start off with Martin mariet. You can see the shares yet about a half of a percent even after J P. Morgan upgrades to overweight from neutral al. So you on this one.

I do it's a great company. I A good company when you get demand for building um you know whether it's roads, infrastructure, uh, you're going to see a tailor. India or we like this company is up about twenty percent year to date. And I think there's a .

lot more upsetting move in on. I'm going to look at data dog, its Price target raised to one seven fire from one fifty six a bank of america, joe, you own this one in the jot etf.

very strong, but meant to break out here in the month of november. And again, it's back to a software name that has reawakened after being dormant for several years. Plenty room for this to accelerate further to the upside. I like the position here, and I think the pulled back gives an opportunity to get .

in our Morgan scaling also with a bio farmer. Look ahead for the months of december, the farm is going to reiterate its underwear rating on bristol mires as well as it's overweight rating on eli lilly. They start with bristol Myers. Arrive you on this one as well.

And I span terrible performer, but I I still like IT. I think the the portfolio bristol is underappreciated. I thinking about the overhanding of the potential R F K appoint appointment. It's a cheap stock, good dividend, uh, for for a value stock. I will keep IT.

Joe may come over to you as well. You also own lily.

We do. And I mean, lilly has been certainly over the last several years, uh, the biotech in the health care industry. I mean, that's clearly what IT is, a trades absolutely like a biotech.

So when is something trades like a volatility? You have to understand that you're going to a lot of volatility in the name. Investors need to know that you have to position the size accordingly. But I still think the secular bullsh trend remains intact.

Move IT on last, but certainly not these. We're looking at disney reiterated as a buy a die. So you on this one as well.

I do. And Frank, this is one that's been a true value stock. Finally, you are seeing uh, some of the things we've been working on in terms of streaming.

Are you see the movie business actually just for winters going to do pretty well? I also think the cattle, there's gonna, uh, a potential break up at some point. You see what can cast your parent company did. So I think there are some things to look forward that could be good.

Doesn't y shares up almost one and a half percent right now? Why also want to come over to you? You own netflix. Just want to kind of get sure take obviously two are big competitors in the streaming .

space yeah and in the good news is the rule for both of them, uh, netflix is look is a super star in the group. It's it's nicely profitable. It's got the ability to spend on due content and there's scarcely to the pure play there.

So we see volatility as a stock approach. Nine hundred dollars, but I think I went over IT, but the funder bell is still strong. And I think you stay with IT and if he gets stand long enough, which hopefully doesn't happen, I may add, but it's a pretty large position out to one side, the largest position to .

actually did you watch politician.

Yeah, I mean, that was more variety show that fight the world car was actually pretty good. But yeah, that was going disGraceful. That is super a counter ability to live events .

that be an interesting narrative for that. Yeah.

yeah. And just start. That's not how I would have tested IT. But yeah, I think we'll do a lot more like you .

move in on my son til is going to join us with his midday world were back right after that stay with us.

And we are back on to have some reports in your markets. Commentator mix anti joins us now with this midday word, kind of a low volume day here on wall street. But hetch funds, they've been more act.

they've been more active. And I would say that what's interesting about the market today and the sort of shows you that the hedge phone input, this is the markets trying to rotate a pretty assert of way in a very particular direction. And today, we're fighting this tide of two percent in the S.

P. Tech index, yet we're trying to sort of going to the defensive is health care and stay pulls in some other parts burger at ways the biggest upside contribute to the S M. P. So IT shows you that there's a tactical winner's versus loses trade that really is still intact.

Now when IT comes to how head funds and aggregate are now set up, I think you have to keep an eye on the fact that they've used up a fair amount of the buying power because questioning is pretty elevated, meaning they have pretty high equity exposures. They've covered a lot of shorts, is a lot of data of showing that I don't think that means this move is over, that the rally is all the same vulnerable. But this is what happens at the end of a very strong calender year, which is everyone feels like they have to participate.

Retail investors getting very active on this, still a specular of trading front. Inflows into etps and leverage t fs have been very high. So you have to just be aware that if you're bullish and you think that the upside is basically the way we go, that that's not a magnic position. That's the consensus right now.

The port etf x on pace actually on a record year. They were all broken the record on Epace f or t he f irst t rillion d ollar y ear. When I came in D T, F inflows.

yes. And I mean IT, it's a pretty eyck's ing number. We also have about a lars of corporate stock by back.

So that's kind of a bit a pretty strong piece. The follow I would point out, the S P is now above like fifty trillion and market cat. So trillion dollars is what I used to be when IT comes to move.

And if you ever think you would say that one told with this midday word, have a great things to see come up the haps. We have another move to tell you about. We have got sad. I know one of the big november losers. We're going to tell you the name in the trade that have coming up next.

And walk back to the last time reported, they started to close out november. Let's check in on some of the committees, winners and losers. This months arve going to looking yours. Your winters include united and go daddy. But then among your losers, we have nessy and and right now you buy some more a yes, those shares up today.

I I am in really the stock is so off after your trump got elected, it's done about twenty percent. Yes, you told IT in the west coast you have a renewable business that's really what got sold off. You're getting the renewable completely for free.

The utility business is what you're buying at something like seven times earnings with the five percent of aniele. So I really like the company even at these Prices. I think you're getting something for free and you're also getting know a potential upside here, not just the dividend but the stock start to rerate because the reino business is not gone to zero. IT has is a lot of value there. We're not just gonna that whole business we throw out .

is actually just move in higher just recently shares up over three percent right now. Why we look at your winners and losers. So you're losers include laos and t sm c, but your biggest winner is golden. It's up eighteen percent of the month.

Yeah look like this conventional story because it's defense company, the fundamental, incredibly strong, but thirty percent of they are workforce works at the government. So if you take a look, then we take a look of booze, Allen said. And even bigger limbs, some of the other gum and contractors, it's ort of uncertain what's going to happen there. I took the opportunity to add a little to IT because I think it'll work out fine for for the government and for for light us in the contractors and am looking at a booze alone right now as well.

Little shares right now down one and a half percent. Okay, stay with us. We have final trades. They're coming up on half time right after this break.

And we are back with funding trees and half time, joe.

you're at first, right?

So I look fundamentally, I know nothing about bitcoin deferred to my novel ATS and Anthony smoggy. But what stands out to me today is that the technology sectors now significantly and bitcoin is pressing higher. I think you get one hundred thousand per here in the next couple of days. Whether that's the top or not, I have no idea.

Are be going up more than five and half percent. Are your pick coin base shanin coming .

over to you financials if you think about the opportunity for deregulation, expanded long growth and a lot of lot of Taylors, despite the fact we already seen some appreciation here, a lot of Taylors for financials to twenty five.

So what i'd like dissing.

we talked to him before. I think the summer business, the parks business to movie business, they are all firing on all slone's.

why? Yeah, I was going to .

say bit going but job at me too. Thanks for the support made a platforms. Look, it's sold off enough fundamental. excEllent. I think it's good time to buy IT are that .

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