The Rally Continues 11/25/24
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I'm scot opener and you're listening to c nbc halftime report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. You record this live weekdays at twelve eastern. Listen in. Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the next time before i've Scott in front set of this out, the rally stocks at new all time highs today, the investment committing, debating just how far these markets might run. Now joined to me for the hour.

Johor nova's deve wideband talking in job Brown, we will check the mark charges told you a we are the loads of the session, but we did hit all time high today for the doud s and p not quite the as that or watching all of IT though, as you know. So joe, let's talk about this for minute. Just the best and affect the expected nominee for treasure secretary, Scott and heads fun veteran. Stocks up, yields fall, oil is lower directly related to that. sure.

Pretty good formation. The expectation that is as we turn, look, I think there is a sequence to what policies the new administration we're going to attempt to implement. I know our voice focused on tariff s and the extension of the tax cut jobs act, but that's really a summer late, uh, second or a third quarter a type of event.

And the two that I think will be combined at that time because obviously, you're going to need a couple of hundred billion dollars from tabs to pay for the task cut. So what happens first is I think you get the regulatory relief. And I think with the appointment of a scot best, and that's exactly what the market is expecting right here. I think what's important though is does the broadening out continue? That's the biggest question to be right now is does the branding out continue?

The reason why I would I mean, the russels up two percent today, the nasdaq I underperformer while the sp is is under performing a little bit too. But in many respects, that's related in some part too. IT is texas x the regulatory .

relief gives you the best opportunity yeah to extend that boarding up. But the last thing i'll say on this is the chase for performance. Everyone keeps talking about IT. You know, chase, if you haven't caught the market by now.

you catching, you know is now this is the chase for outperform. How much can you outperform the market now if you do have that run that people are talking about from election day to inauguration day? So why I don't remember where I I read, but in those good article today, on best in what his beliefs seemed to be, three arrows approach, much like chin's AA bay.

Over in japan, you spur higher economic growth through lower taxes and deregulation. You get the growth and then the growth lowers the deficit, right? You paid down the deficit by higher growth and you increase domestic oil production as well. And you look at all three of those pillars, so to speak, and they're working in the market. As we said, stocks up on the belief are going to have higher growth rates down on the belief that you get higher growth, you lower the deficit and then oils down today because, well, why you're going to please you to increase apply domestically. So then oil, false, that is that sort of that simple for a day IT.

is that simple from the top? Of course, the the details or who is different now I use still the scot fairly regularly lose its. This was in the us. And then when he was running, source landed and he's a very thought ful person is a student of economic history as macro on vesture, still as micro vesture. So I think he sort of got the right baLance to go in and do what needs to be done now.

And while he says he's going to make sure that trumps economic policies come to light, you know, he's also going to be able to, because he's got trumps confidence, obviously be able to somewhere. Maybe that's not the best thing to do. So I do think part of the market today is because of sky, because wall street know them and they don't be very thoughtful. Now in terms of his plan, look, the marketing keep going right now because you're seasonally in a great .

period needed IT kind of needed another catalyst to get to the next level, right? And this sort of took some uncertainty off the table, as you point out, a selection that is going to be very favorable in wall streets.

my right. And so you've got you ve got the expectations going to build up. And then I think you'll see pretty immediate action after november twenty, after january twenty, rather because, look, they have to try fact the republicans and if one thing that there was the people appreciate against about the prior trump present cy with some of the economic policies.

So just think of what it'll be when there's no more tax on some security, when there's no more tax on tip wages. That's all gonna be going to the economy. However, they can have to walk the other side of the larger, meaning inflation. And that's the one place where all this can go wrong between tabs and all that. That's twitching, but it's too early to worry about that at this point.

okay. So brin, give give me your view. You got the dow up six percent since the election.

The S, N, P, N, the nas deck are under performing both the dow in the rusal. But that's because technology hasn't done fantastically since the election. So naturally, the nazi dust, the us. And peer going to look a little bit worse than the doubt in the Russell Russell dote to jose point about the broadening and whether IT continues up nine percent. If you're going na spur and stimulate economic growth, then that's where you look right.

I've been really consisted, and I still think that we've chosen to express the broader out with R S P, which is the ecole S M P that are stained. Large cap were staying quality. And you see R S P today is up, you know over one percent.

We also have a free cash flow um etf. We use that at one and a half. And so I don't think you just have to say S M P or no profitable arrest of two thousand.

I think the equal way is still gonna be where you're going to get consistent flows company also a Steve point longer term about inflation and what happens with inflation next year as soon as we get any kind of hick up, if CPI any of the PC starts even ticking higher, you're gna immediately see that with algorithmic trading down wrestler, two thousand. And so I think we want to continue to stay large. Cat, but R, S, P, and I think it's important to understand with rsp, although it's equal by security, it's not equal by sector. The top two sectors are financials and industrials. And so you really get very different exposure from the sector perspective in the S M P.

And I got three letters for is called the jot OK. You should see, I mean, this guy over my left, if you're talking about that, like about to fall off his chair four years old the other day, right? right?

My compliance part kill me.

But Steve is polling. You don't have to, you don't have. Want to kill you. They kill me. Yeah, I know. I just.

well, the killing me examine investor in the form has been amazing. I almost doubled with the rush ec.

and you you're free to do whatever you want. That goes without saying just ground. We get some new outlooks for twenty five today. Today at seven thousand. That's a street high.

Barclays sixty six hundred Lorry cavasa rbc is sixty six hundred as well and stove all over at cfr a as a smidge below but seven thousand right now street high. How's that match up with the your view? And what is taking place today and what might happen between now and, let's say, minimum, an Operation day?

So that that was a nice eight part question to start off a monday with.

right? You're more be taking person. I know I know you. You can hear that.

Yes, judge, I want to go back to the performance chase and conversation. A really interesting thing. But if you don't play this game where you're jumping in and out of the market like you try to dodge raindrops, you don't really ever have to worry about chase and performance.

The thing about seven thousand targets, that's really only sixteen and a half percent away from where the market is. Now that would be a great year and return at the end of twenty twenty five, I would certainly be thrown if if that's if that were what we got. But the distance between milestones now is shrinking mathematically.

So two thousand and four thousand is a double. Four thousand to six thousand where we are now is only really fifty percent. So sixty seven is is really not it's not that outrageous of a reach.

Of course, it's a highly optimistic scenario. And let let's hope everything that's in place right now that's gotten us this far remains place. I want you to consider the the really big things. And of course, best in that treasure is great, the regulation is great, all of these new stories.

But the actual current fundamentals or the reason we are where we are, the ten year is now four thirty IT hit four forty five on eleven thirteen, and it's been backing off ever since. You actually have an inversion again, in the ten year or two years, there were a lot of people on their dance card who had marked off five percent ten years going to the children to the market. Those they're not king are not talking this week, you have earnings growth.

Earnings growth continues and it's coming from eight out of the eleven sectors. And and by the way, the number one performing sector in the year is financials, not tech. So we're going to lose that max seven narrative shortly as well.

The S N P five hundred banking sector hit new all time highs morning S N P diversified banks, the whole sector media on is is seventy all five of the big banks or above both moving averages, bank of new york, J P, M, B A C city and and wells fargo. That's what's leading the market. The median return in the S P financials is forty one percent.

It's almost every stock it's impossible not to find. One is working. So a lot of narratives of being shadow if these pieces stay in place, earnings growth rates falling, longer term rates falling to deregulation, like what what else would you be looking for to get to seven thousand? What more would you possibly need?

right? Why I don't use a statement against me in the future. I mean, i'm not a i'm no genius, all right. But it's been pointed out to me that jot is actually four letters, not three. As I might have just said.

I didn't want to embarrass on a monday for tuesday.

You could have any time. yes. So anyway, four letters bring four letters preciate, I appreciate the correction of my executive producer was the first one to point that out.

Nicer he is. I wanted him to have something to do also for change.

Just judge your IT. Okay, josh, let me ask you about positioning because I think positioning important. Agree with you should be dancing in an out of rain drops.

But coming into this year report folio manager, the word that matter to you coming off of twenty twenty three was beta because in twenty twenty three, you got erect because you had the outperformance from the mag seven. So do you think from a position standpoint, the marketplace is really in the right place as we move into twenty twenty five? If this broadening out, in fact, happens, you have financial is the strongest sector year to date. Nobody had that on their score card and .

they were in position for IT.

josh. So I think one one of the things that one of the exercises that's worth doing is looking at individual stocks, even if you are uh a sector investor or an index investor um or you have some sort of bias to capsize because you're professional and your universes sin or whatever, you still should understand what's happening with stocks. We keep a this called the best stocks in the market.

And when you look at the names that are on that list, i'll just tell you the names that were added at the end of last week as of the friday closed, joe, there is no why more reason or continue between these names is coming from every sector. It's plentier, but it's also starbucks, it's general motors, but it's also zoom. It's home deepo, but it's also black rock.

And so in that kind of an environment, it's less punishing to miss, to your point, to miss those max seven. You you could be in any sector right now just about, with very few exceptions, any industry group. And if you own a name that's got a market cap that's fifty, one hundred billion and is a profitable company, IT probably has a great chart. I don't suggest that, that will remain the environment for the entirety of twenty twenty five. But dam that as good as he gets when you're heading into a new year to see people allocating to equities as diverse as as dispersed as they are brain.

I mean, financial record high the day of nine percent since the election. Directionally record high the day of eight and half cent since the election, industrial record high today of five and a hf percent since the election. And then there are a subsequent Price target calls on some of the very stocks that josh just went through, whether IT is a patio, for example, which we can get into a more serious software conversation versus semis in just a minute. But the the Brown ing, what to josh's point, like what more do you want.

right? I mean, think if you look at I think we're we're going to continue to stop talking about the mag seven as a whole. I mean, look at look at microsoft.

It's been a huge lager apples, been a market performer. Um google done. Okay, really, it's meta and NVIDIA that have pulled the rest of them a longside for outperformance.

And I think you're going to continue to see that dispersion next year where we're talking less about these seven monolithic, more about smaller, smaller technology companies. I mean, look at you snowflake, which I don't earn, which the market hate IT up until last week. Those types of companies where people can be excited about a pantier, once again is just crushed at this year. And so I think there is going to be smaller, more mid cap tech companies where there is gonna more of A A want for performance than just hanging out with of these mega caps, especially as they continue to spend billions and billions to try to create some consumer product, which we are not sure how much we're actually going to use.

Yeah, let's get to do. There's a no today on the financials from pipes. They say the cattle is remain for further upside from here. Is any disagreement on the desk? Ubs, by the way, has upgraded tech to overweight.

So the market feels like in even those who follow IT are embracing the idea of there, I say, and everything rally you like, what's under perform can still perform. Some things made out perform, but hard to find things that people don't suggest will continue to go up. Now you could say, well, okay, so staples aren't gonna go up and maybe a couple of other places. But is that what you need, a position for a west?

You look I do think that right now, technologies not or big cap technologies is not the favor place to be. If you take a look at the cell off in semis and I say cell cell off somewhat precise ously because it's just not participate of last month. So but if you d like the industrial as you've got to look at semis, because all the industrial at this point have sent the conductor chips to them. So not saying by IT broadly, but that may be what you want to see.

Let me ask you this, yeah, why has software so definitively outperform sems yet over the last six months?

Well, do you know what .

performance is? Yeah, the I G V is up twenty eight and half percent. The S.

M, H is a zero. It's flat. okay. why?

Two reasons. Anyone remember we have a nice conversation a while ago that software, everybody was selling software. Software wasn't the place to be.

And the time I said, no, what is the place to be? Just didn't. Basic recurrent ring revenue, you can have recurring reviews of ninety to hundred percent now what supercharged IT our companies like plentier. So when you're throwing A I in there, then you've got to upgrade. Now part of my case of microsoft.

which before why jos been love in partier and seventy five from fifty five at B A. Wedbush, you I ve raised, he'd been calling this this company the messy of the AI story, as in message, the soccer player palencia target to seventy five also from him, where he talks about that this is right in their warehouse that you got. They're going to see unprecedented demand.

So we're looking at, at a private company right now. And what they do is they go in, they take their A I don't with forty companies already and they improve their efficiency. How do they do IT? They do with software product.

Apple is very reason to have somebody go go in by hand and put the iphone together all the time. No, you can automate that. So AI, the way to look at is the next big automation. It's another industrial revolution. And so that's why software with the new with the new types of things you can do with software products with A I is going to drive that boom.

So that's why this guy right here are right um has more software exposure, I think, than anybody on the show.

Yes, whether it's cyber crowd strike palo alto, I will talk about another name in a minute because IT plays into where I want get to but auto desk and APP love you not the stock that's gone crazy this year checkpoint and copying and sales force and data dog and docker sign and fort net and service now an oracle and spotify uh, and now you bought more twiller. yeah. So I think .

software still has an advantage going in to twenty twenty five. And I think one of the things that benefits software is that if you are a CFO, when you're thinking about what is my budget look like coming into the new year, well, you had a little bit of trepidation before the election because you thought possibly maybe the corporate tax rate rises. You had some uncertainty.

I think now you have the clarity where you can go out. You can invest in the necessary software in twenty twenty five. I think that benefits the entire industry.

The other thing about software is relative to semi conductors. I'm surprised you to invention this is I really believe that one word tariff. Is the overhang on the semiconductor industry x in video. And I think it's going to continue to be the overhang in the headwind for semiconductors in twenty twenty five.

Yeah I mean, so why so let you come back at that, you know Parker, adam Parker, to suggest really now the time to buy semis and self software because of the outperformance, because of some of the reasons you said um because every industrial I think you said every industrial company has semiconductors as as a part of IT. Obviously, when you're talking about the powering of the AI transformation that is is taking place, that now is actually the time to buy these semi stocks and cell software, which is hard, as I suggested, a great run.

Ah I actually don't think semis will be terrible like that because everyone, its american companies that are designed technology, that driving in technology and send me is so important to economic growth. I don't think that's what they're looking to put a terrifying. So taiwan semi, I don't think they get hit with terrace that's been unit forming. But you know what?

I don't think it's be considered enough anyway that especially if you read and look, I read way more than I know about basin. okay. So what I read um like most of you probably um it's not like terror or going into effect immediately on certain use negotiating to so if you can Better negotiate fair trade practices through the threat of terf.

and that's what are going to right? And if you take a look at at china, for example, take the supply lines. Supply chain, as we see with apple is moving into india. Not that india won't be terrible that they'll all have terrorists, but I will be negotiating tool. And I still think, as I said, that because semicon doctor so critical to economic growth that they will be examined, if not treated, very, very lightly.

So I do want to hit bit point two guys and brand. I'll give you the first crack at that. We can take a look at IT now IT got real close to one hundred k and that was that was late on friday.

Now bitcoin futures may have actually been bent there, but we're up thirty eight percent since the election. I know wise, you have a move here, but brand, you bent in this for a while. What are you?

What are your thoughts now?

What mean? I think we all know that you, gary games there is going to step down. We have across the board in the house, senate and with president elect trump, a much more friendly your environment.

And so and then you look at this, you so much money is gonna be transparent red from the baby boomers to the gene. And they're not wanting to buy perseverate half away. They're wanting to play, encrypt and do levered single stock etf. And so I just think longer term, you're gona have more investors continue to come into the space, not only with this wealth transfer, but as you get more institutional adoption.

I still think that you know I bit in the other etf that came out and all of the marketing that the black rocks first they are doing around the institutional ization of bitcoin just has this halo effect across all crypt to currency. So I think volatility or main high, it's always there. There will be something to pull this asset class again, but I think it's just there. This asset class doesn't seem like it's gonna be destroyed. It's just gonna slowly looks like it's stronger.

yeah. I mean, the asset manager, josh, don't even need a market. These products that the most powerful marketing of all this is coming straight out of either paul beach or ultimately in in dc.

Yeah I did a piece over the summer at my site and we talked about IT on the air about the final capital ation of the enemies of crypto and how effectively the wealth management industry was next. We haven't even seen that yet. Um so when you see those flows into I bit and and the other large and the other large etf, that's like not even close to being point of one percent of all of the money in the slash wealth management space.

The ra space is seven trillion dollars, and these people are mostly patric ed to even have conversations about digital assets with clients, let alone make an actual solicated or or recommendation. So all of that is still to calm. The only monkey range is if you get like one of the typical twenty or thirty percent cellos in bitcoin for some reason, like that's the only that could put that off.

But I still believe, as i've believe for a while, that I will come a main bid. Coincidence, twenty seventeen under three thousand dollars a share. I remember how how taboo U T.

Was just to talk about IT on cnbc. Now you watch a full days work to cnbc. I don't think you can get through an hour without somebody bringing IT up.

So it's been a complete sea change. The resignation last week was kind of like the the Cherry on top. And now I think the adoption face in traditional finance is what's going to be the next leg.

Maybe, maybe brand knows the answer to this. I had a conversation last week with someone who's very active in bitcoin in the theory, and they point that out to me, which I didn't realize. The theory um is still twenty five percent of its all time high so you're thinking that theory um going up with IT cocoon, it's not and they said to me, they said probably what you see is if bitcoin runs into the wall here one hundred thousand, it's going to a benefit a theory tremendously and watched that spread to a lot of capital from asset managers actually goes into .

a theory why you bought more bit point.

right? I did. I did so here undered by how .

much is gone up? I mean.

I actually more this morning, it's not usual to hit resistance and to stay below that major resistance level. And psychologically, one hundred thousand is a major resistant level. But here's here's how I look and still not to believe in use cases, but there's a guy that I have debate bitcoin with all the time.

This guy, alon handler, rate mid west and roots and he's been here for a long, long time. And you know what? It's like his excitement as the only in increase. So it's like the tooth fairy. You have a Young kid and the kid loses the tooth, put IT under the pillow case, very excited.

And the next day rop under the pillow.

you put a for you. And then the next day when they picked, take that five dollars or dollars, twenty, whatever IT is, they get even more excited. That's how bit coin trading.

So the people excitement and the fact that, that justice, right, there's so much more to come. So the use case is what i'm doing with IT, which is trading. So I think that keeps going actually because so many force pulling undoubted, a lot of the buying been an exception.

And what's going to happen? sure. But but you can see .

a lot more come out of IT speaking.

So we will let's take break coming up. We have a big self call today on one of the best performing stocks since the election. But two analysts, they square off on block, however, and the three time for one of justice newest names are calls the day next.

Okay, here's a call. Tesla reiterated cell at ubs, the target that goes to two twenty six, two twenty six from one ninety seven bring i'll give that one to you. I mean, you talk about making gutsy calls right now. Good luck with this one. What do you .

think I think especially the reiterated cells they already had to sell on the name, you think with these kind of companies that with tesla still a growth company, obviously you have have the mask effect, this halo effect, which is hypercharged now that he is shoulder to shoulder with trump, right? And so I think that you definitely have, I would call him the animal spirits at this level. I do that going into next year.

Everything's always delayed. We know I don't think I have a test link. We are not close to me, not driving my car and letting my car drive itself and feeling confident around that.

So I think the analyst overall, I get what they're saying. I think this is a great time with the name. You can sell some calls.

There's massive collbran. I do think the stock is ahead of itself, but that's that's the Price of admission. They can go lower than I think I should go.

And right now, I do think it's a little bit higher than IT should be. But I think long term between the optimists, between energy storage, full self driving will come at some point, which are all new revenue drivers. I think shorting the stock are being reiterating CIA is probably going to .

be a losing proposition. Yeah, josh, I just would love you. You take here if in fact.

you you even have one. I I don't understand .

what the stop trades on other than the vibes around like whatever e lands working on is. No, there's no fundamental thing that I could say to you was gonna matter to the stock, something to get posted on twitter and completely change everyone's thought process on IT. So I just am not involved and I don't have any real edge join the next ten percent in the name. So just it's something very far away from what I do.

Joe, I mean, you had IT in the tea. Yeah, right.

I think you could imagine at the end of the quarter, based on momentum, what possibly would happen with the etf. It's clearly a momentum leader right now. What's interesting is, look, uber got caught up in the tesla c conversation for sure. And a lot of people have talked about getting out of uber.

I had not to talk about IT. Remember brad carson or told direct he talked about IT. He talked about why he did get out uber. yes.

And I had to personally, and I had IT in the etf. So I A double position. I sold out of IT personally, and i've been watching IT.

And I have to tell you something, it's actually bouncing and the momentum is building once again to where I think the worst is past for the stock. I actually think, yes, I actually think now you're talking about about amid seventies approaching eighty stock. I think something happened there. I don't know if there was a larger liquidation or not, but just studying near term momentum, yeah IT looks like when you got into the mid sixties, you had a classic example of momentum exhaustion.

Just you want to take a that row quick since you're big in uber.

As well, uber in no man's land there, there's literally no trend. So if you're trading IT, I guess maybe you would be trading IT based on like, uh, the next news announcement that comes out. There's no signal here saying that in the short term to expect anything.

I'm an investor in the name judge. I been through low momentum period of time. I've been through high momentum. I been through corrections. I intend to stay and i'm definitely not reacting to Price action in the short term.

Yeah, we didn't mention block in the tea and only because you bought IT recently. You just have a downgrade today and a Price target bump. So maybe a bit of a dool over where that stock goes. But I got to get the headlines with contested or hey and hey.

Scott T A federal judges in texas is said to your arguments today on whether this theatrical news outlet, the onion, made a valid bid for alex Jones is infrared ars after a pro Jones bitter who offers twice as much cash chAllenge the transaction Jones filed for bankrupcy after being ordered to pay almost one point five billion dollars in defamation lawsuits by the families of the victims of the twenty twelve Sandy hook massacre.

Re, well, the busy think's giving travel week begins and service workers at charlie doulas international airport just walked off. The job this morning is expected to be a twenty four hour strike. Workers at two airport service companies voted friday to strike at the airport, which is a hub for american airlines.

They're demanding an end to what they describe as poverty wave wages. The companies contract with amErica to provide of cleaning, planning, interiors and removing the trash in his final turkey pardon as commander in chief president by parted two turkeys from minnesota today named peach and bossom for the delaware state flower that binds homes state. Of course, these pair will live out the rest of their days at a minnesota wildlife sanctuary. This is the important news that you can use today, Scott.

I mean, we expect at this time of year.

So is that news if we expect IT?

Well, yeah, yeah, maybe maybe the worst kept secret or you know .

is always what what they need, the turkey. That's the big news. That's the thing .

that changes from you and me that you can test. Thank you. Prove are you coming up your twenty, twenty five etf playbook? We will talk about where you can find the biggest opportunities in the new year. We break IT down etfs.

Well, come back. Let's get to pippa Stevens. Now today's etf h hey.

pepper, got and welcome to etf H I pip Stevens in today for bob azo. I or now just the weeks away from closing out a record year for the etf industry. And so now we're looking ahead to twenty twenty five.

Joining me now is taught rose and blue is the head of research at TM x verify. So tod, let's upset the stage here. The industry is sitting on just under one trillion dollars. Could we reach that milestone by year? And and which funds are grabbing in the majority of new inflows?

So we advertized.

do you think we're going to hit a trillion dollars in that inflow? That would be a tremendous mile. So and show those that have been sitting on the sideline from an asa managment standpoint and an investor stamp point that etf are here to stay.

We're seeing strong interest in those broad S M P five hundred e tf. Vanguard five hundred is already set a record for individual flows. Iv v the ice shares product also has hit that level as well.

But we're looking towards the market broadening out in twenty twenty five. And we think equal eight strategies like R S P uh from investor G S E W from golden sex and even a story has nip away. Etf could get some attention.

Let's so drill down on that a little bit further because you are also expecting to see some new life next year and neglected parts of the market. What exactly you mean by that? And how can investor is hop on that trade?

So small caps have been out of favor for much of the year, but we've seen small caps gained some traction in recent weeks, obviously, since the election and the potential benefits of taxes remaining low and getting perhaps even lower. Small cap etf, like the I shares S M, P, six hundred small cap etfi J R, is a higher quality way of getting exposure than that. Rusal two thousand.

We also like s flow, which is a Victory shares, free cash, low, small capital, a little smaller in size. This is a road of the new e tf. But we think Victory shares could be a player to watch in the etf space.

all right. So small caps could be set for more gains ahead. We do have much more on the outlook for twenty twenty five coming up on etf.

H at one P, M, E, stern talk will be joined. ian. ian. He is the managing director of behavioral finance and investing at veteran. You can catch the show at etf edge .

dot C N B C 点 com。 Thank you very much. And up, we do have some move to discuss vice and burn. Getting out of a couple of names will document those in a Price target bulk for one of justice stocks to do next.

Talk about the moves we're in your up first. You sold devon. D tell us why.

Yeah, I mean, i've been in the name for two years and you can make money and energy. But IT hasn't been in this stock. They have a great management, a team, but the market doesn't like IT.

I'm a big believer, and you don't have to make IT back the same way you lost IT. So I sold devon. I put the money into energy transfer, which I really owned.

Energy transfers at thirty five percent plus has a seven percent yellow devin, still down fourteen. Devin seems to go down when energies down and then knock go up when energies is going up. So ah I need to have that money working with me and IT for me an energy names that are actually going to have going to go higher.

okay. So you're totally out a wise and you're now totally out of trans .

time is alright? Yes, I am. I sold part of the number months going sold the rest of IT last week.

The reason beings that as a model to great month privately I maybe back into IT, but they own a number of companies like forty six companies and a lot of those are single part suppliers. There's no competition. So they are in the aftermarket part of cost to defend part of IT into into commercial hour space. But if department defense truly gets religious about cutting costs, they're going have to go after these guys. There's all already was a lawsuit or complaint a number of years ago that may come back to service.

Just we mention a Price target move on one of your stocks, it's read IT the Price target that goes to one seventy five and that is at Jeffery Y Z. IT was at one twenty based on one hundred fifty dollars a share for advertising, twenty five dollars a share for data licensing.

Yeah so those are the two main businesses here and they're getting Better at both of them. If you're building large language models, what you need is actual user data, actual things people have said and set a the reit library of content going back about twenty years.

Member, this is a one point of social media site um is one of the richest libraries in terms of content that can possibly be mind every everyone gonna want to pay them for that data on the advertise inside. This is just something that they had never really been over really focused on. They did an OK job.

Now they're getting very serious. And at the same time, da use are exploding. A hundred million da use at some point during the last quarter. That's a really big number of people showing up, engaging on the site. So I like I like that kind of two ways to win type situation in the stock looks fantastic.

All right, quick, right. And sand toy is on the other side with this midday word. We're back right after this.

We are back, our senior commentator, mike, and told is here with his midday word, which is .

about a mullet's market. Yeah, trying to frame this two tracks in front party to back that whole idea. And that's the way this markets been Operating for a while. Usually when the Marks starts to seem kind of frothy and nutty in some of the real hyper speculative stuff is really ripping, the rest of the market may be is a little bit more on steady or even melting up. And what we've seen recently is the S P five hundred kind of locked into this nice orderly rotational trend.

And yet you have seen a lot of the ani quality part to the market and is not to say that it's all garbage, but it's self that hadn't participated and also got to revive from twenty twenty. So everything cypher, cypher, jon, you see the kind of class of twenty twenty one IPO starting to run again. Art is is his way up.

And that's a lot of a crypto story and tesla as well. And so you have that going on with the leverage tf volumes that are just almost stressing the system on some days. And then what does IT mean, I guess, is the big thing.

I don't think that means everybody is super bullish over their skies. I think quality was very well exploited and fully Priced and had been the leadership going into this post election period. And now people have plan. And part of that playing, I think, is possibly a little more of a of a treasure tape and erratic tape. And we've seen some of that.

I mean, maybe things you're just going to remain that way. I M M til the end of the year, which is not that, that far away. And you're still trying to people are trying to game out these policies are going to mean when they're going to be put in place at some of them and then what subsequently is going to go upward down .

as as a where you wonder exactly how much of that is policy or just this general sense of, hey, you, there is kind of no boundaries to a lot of what these lines can do because you don't know specifically. You can kind of tell yourself the story. Um I do find interesting today that following the celebration of best and as a choice for treasury, it's really bit of byblos and rotate away large cap stocks story as opposed to buy everything. Although I will say it's really rotationally the russels up a you know a firm is up square Green is up all this yeah crowded shorts still running I mean.

you're onna prime. The pump for you know higher growth than that is being viewed in some corners as finally the thing that gets the rustle out of the right.

sure. And that's definitely part of IT. I think you also that you remember back to the mean stock days, the Russell itself was getting whipped around by things like microstrip gy, which is there at the time.

Yes, right. So it's not just that. Oh, it's small mom and pop, real industrial and financial companies and sometimes it's what's the crazy st thing .

going on on the market, right? My and toley, the set up is next.

This is time now for the set up companies that are about report earnings this week tomorrow before the bell. Adi, that's analog devices and that's joice.

Question is how we reached a trough on the revenue decline. Last court came in down twenty five percent. This court of the expectations down twelve percent.

What are we relying on there? We're relying on an improvement in industrial trips. More specifically, we need to see automobile bills and proof my action. Gm telling you, maybe IT is right.

Dell is tomorrow. After the bell, stocks up almost twenty percent, bring in a month.

yeah. I think a lot of this has to do also with the questions around super micro. We're looking for revenues to be eleven percent, earnings to be at nine.

I will say this stock last court that was not volatile. The market was expecting plus or minus eight. IT was only of four, but the market again is playing pricing plus or minus eight tomorrow. After the bell, I think IT probably is going to look more like the last porter.

And the chart literally saw .

IT on the stop going into earnings.

Absolutely wrong around group raised the Price of three, eight, only five by rating sixty. Wind street will do finals next. I'll see a three peat pozen bell, Cameron dawson, Chris, to me, this equis actually with neo Kenny dict, with his new venture, as well as for to all of that brain final .

is what continue to play the Browning out the market cows paired free .

cash flow yield etf jack Brown.

take a look at dominus. This thing is moving in the right direction. I think IT wants five hundred and broke your half way has begun to accumulate.

Okay, thank you. Steve voice, vertit stocks.

downtown insider selling, don't blame for selling. They still have a lot of stock. I think it's we're opportunity to get IT done discount that was significant.

The jot lovey commerce official love amazon marco library, another name you can know.

Alright, we will track the market through the final stretch when I see you at three o'clock dows. Good for three hundred exchanges down. You've been listening to c, nbc's halftime report, the podcast, you can always catch us live weekdays at twelve stern only on C, N, B, C.

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