The Road Ahead for the Record-Setting Rally 1/24/25
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Q, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Walker. Front and center this hour, stocks at record highs, with some making the case now that this rally can go a long way further. We will discuss and debate with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Bryn Talkington, Joe Terranova, Jim Labenthal, Jason Snipe. Take you to the markets. S&P more or less at new highs. Did close at a new one yesterday. It is giving a fraction back. So is the Dow and the Nasdaq as we have a really big week on the market.

on tap, obviously, next week. Bryn, I'm going to start with you. All right. So we're on track for back-to-back weeks of gains. And Tom Lee has a note out today, says stocks are going up for the right reason. Notably, he has a 7,000 price target for the S&P by the middle of the year. Says first five days have been positive, 82% win ratio. That's number one.

Sentiment capitulation on December to January, that's good. Inflation softer, that's good. Fears of day one tariffs overblown. Cyclicals leading, that's a risk on sentiment, he says, and we are tracking above expectations. According to Tom Lee. What about according to Brent Hockington?

Exactly. So I guess that's like about a 10% move, right? If I just take the year-end price target. So I think the direction seems correct, right? And as we're going to see next week really starts the Oscars of earnings that we'll get into later in the show with all the big cap tech companies. I think that right now, since tariffs for this week, this

at least have taken a back step in terms of the narrative. I mean, the consumer surprisingly is still strong in spending. We're seeing that. Earnings are supposed to grow double digits this year with tech leading the way at 18%. Rates have settled down and

And so I think when you have those different ingredients creating the backdrop of this mosaic, it looks like we're going to continue to move higher. You know, what price? The 7,000 to 6,600 for me is a little bit too prescriptive. I don't think the markets are that predictable, but I like his 6,600. I know people like Ed Yardeni, I think are much higher than that. And if earnings come in,

then we really don't need to have multiples expanding. You could actually have multiples stay flat to slightly compressive earnings beat expectations this year. Joe, I mean, the point is that's being made by Tom and some others, irrespective of the difference in the targets, is that we're not close to being done. That, you know, in some respects, this next leg is just getting started.

I would agree with that. I think that let's remember something and we'll talk a little bit more in depth about Apple.

But the advance so far year to date is without Apple. Apple is having its worst start to the year since 2008. So it is about a broadening story. It's about looking in other sectors like industrials and seeing stocks like Tractor Supply or Deckers working well or MercadoLibre. It's like looking at financials have been remarkably strong so far year to date. I keep talking about the fact that you saw that

double-digit earnings growth for many of the money center banks and stocks like Raymond James and Discover are also working well. You're looking at industrials, a name like HOMET, that's up significantly. So it is broadening out at the mid and large cap equity size class. Yes, you are getting the beta from the Russell 2000. That seems to be working so far year to date. But

The setting is a favorable one. And I think with that setting, investors have to think about engaging in risk until there is something to suggest that either the Fed's disposition changes or you've got inflation that rears its head. Or lastly, which is most important, you don't get the earnings growth. And so far, 79 out of 500 investments.

S&P companies have reported, and we have 16.5% earnings growth. All right. How about this, Jimmy? Another alleged benefit to stocks. Buybacks are booming. According to Barini Research, U.S. companies have announced more than $48 billion in buybacks through the close of January 2nd, putting this on pace for the strongest January since 1999.

You know how I feel about buybacks. I love them. If you're a shareholder, it just concentrates the earning power of the shares that you own as long as the share count is going down. And with the numbers you just highlighted, Scott, share counts are going to go down. I think what's very important, and this ties in with what Joe and Bryn were just saying, is you can only buy back shares if you have positive cash flows. We've had several years now of G2C.

of GDP expanding, of profits now starting to grow. There was a little profit recession, but the cash flows are clearly there to buy back shares. Both Joe and Bryn just highlighted the importance of earnings going forward. And I want to point out something, a pattern that's happened or been broken rather thus far in the earnings season. We're seeing analyst estimates for the fourth quarter of 2024 going up.

with only 15% of S&P 500 companies reporting. As you said, Joe, this is an unusual pattern. For the last two years, what you've seen is right out of the gates, there are disappointments and analyst estimates come down for the quarter being reported before the MAG-7 and MEGA-CAP tech ride in to save the day and outperform for the quarter.

It's mainly been financials. We know that. But it's a very good sign because if we're going to get this market not only continuing to grow higher from here, but to broaden out, we're going to have to see the other 493 stocks or, you know, the other sectors besides tech and Amazon and meta. We're going to have to see those other sectors perform in terms of earnings growth, which we are seeing. It's a good sign. I mean, Netflix, one of the big stories of the week. Jason, you own that stock. Yep. They talked about buybacks. I mean,

There's a lot of stocks, a lot of big names that our viewers own that are talking a lot about buybacks. And as I said, strongest January since 1999, according to Barini Research. And you know what? For me, when I think about buybacks, it's just a reflection of confidence going forward for a lot of these companies. If I think about Netflix as an example, great quarter, I mean, double subscriber growth on what the guide was. They announced a $15 billion buyback, 17 in total.

which is a great number for them and a lot of other companies. So for me, as I've kind of seen the earnings picture and obviously Joe alluded to what the numbers are, financials were strong, we're seeing rails perform, we're seeing healthcare perform, industrial names have obviously done well.

Crude has weakened. The dollar has weakened. So I think there's a lot of macro also in this earnings picture that's going to propel the markets forward. So I think there's a lot to like about the market. And I think it's time to kind of, as people are reassessing allocation, I think it's time to get a little bit incrementally more bullish here. Let's show shares of Twilio, if we could, please. They had an investor day. Stock is unbelievable today.

A lot of analysts talking it up, too. Price target, Oppenheimer goes to 160. You're up more than 20% today. Stiefel goes to 130. Obviously, it's trading well above that at this particular moment. Joe, you own it. I bring it up because they're another one who announced buybacks as well. They did, and this was a remarkable quarter.

For those out there that don't believe technicals could guide you towards entering position in an equity name, this is a classic example of yes it can because that's exactly what guided me into the position. And what followed was the fundamental confidence that's reflected in this earnings report. Seeing double digit,

revenue growth, seeing the free cash flow estimates for 25 to 27, those estimates being raised and really understanding that this company has embarked upon a journey the last several years in which they were evolving from a messaging company to moving now towards

a customer engagement platform. And they're successfully navigating that. I thought about looking at the position this morning, saying to myself, is the position too big? Do I want to pare it back? And the answer to that, candidly, is I don't. I'm going to maintain the positioning size I have. So I guess there has been a conversation, Brent, around

the price that you're willing to pay for stocks, right? We're well above the 10-year historical average valuation on the S&P. I get it that you specifically have made the point that, you know, valuation is not

a good signal to use when buying or selling stocks. I bring it up because insiders, there's been a fair amount of insider selling. And, you know, according to Bloomberg, you've had 98 S&P companies, at least one insider buying this year, 447 S&P companies, at least one seller, an insider.

That buy-sell ratio, they say, at 0.22 is on track to be the lowest in their data going back to 1988. The FT with a headline today says stocks are most expensive compared to bonds since the dot-com era. It does raise the issue as to whether stocks are too expensive.

regardless of whether you think valuation is a good metric to use or not in thinking about how to buy or sell names, these two factoids would, if nothing else, lend to a good conversation on that topic.

I think so. And I think when you look at the buy-sells, I think actually that's a really constructive data point on individual names. And, you know, one of the names that Joe and I own, I cut my position back as Palantir, and you saw some really meaningful insider selling locations.

last year. And I think that was the insiders taking advantage of what was a historic year in terms of performance. I think you need to look at that when you have senior insiders taking profits, taking advantage of what the market's giving. And so I think it's more of a data point on the individual names. And I think it's important to look at that. I definitely look at that

And I think that right now there's some individual names that are priced for perfection. I think that's what we're going to continue to see this year, especially in earnings season. If you do not deliver, your stock will be down 20 to 30 percent. I mean, I feel like these earnings...

going forward are going to be especially brutal for those that underperform. If you have a high valuation, I really think that investors need to be cognizant of that and understand there could be some big downside in names that don't meet these really high expectations, to your point of companies that have nosebleed valuations.

Well, I mean, it does lead us to mega cap earnings next week, right? That's what people would say. Well, those are the stocks with the higher valuations. I mean, you know, mega cap tech, like, you know, some of the ones that are going to report

Jason, next week. Meta, January 29th, record high today. Microsoft also on that day. And then Apple is next Thursday. So you got a couple on Wednesday. And then you got the big one on Thursday. You get to wait a little bit for Amazon and Alphabet and NVIDIA. But relative to our conversation, you're going to need earnings to deliver. And these names really need to deliver.

I mean, Bryn alluded to it earlier, 18% earnings growth for this sector. And we do know that they do not trade it as a monolith. We know Apple has obviously been struggling. It's down 11% year-to-date. They have some issues with China and losing some momentum there against Vivo and Huawei.

But I think it's obviously going to be very important. There's a lot of talk about CapEx. There's news about this AI infrastructure build, $100 billion this year and potentially $500 billion over the next five. These are numbers. These are potential catalysts. But again, we have to see the follow through. It's nice to see a broadening. It's nice to see the rustle. It's nice to see...

other sectors working, but we have to see follow through from the generals. Yeah. What's your thought here on these? Look, the interesting one to me is Apple. And we exited the position on Halloween. We didn't exit it for any other reason than the revenue growth. And the revenue growth, if you think about the quarters in 2023, it had negative quarters. Then the first quarter of 24, you report a positive quarter.

And then you go right back to a negative quarter in Q2. So it looked like last quarter you saw the uptick in the revenue growth. They achieved 6%. Okay, that's not achieving the type of revenue growth that the other MAG7 are achieving in any regard. Now this quarter, estimates for what, 4% revenue growth? Right.

That's not that exciting. So I think that's the biggest challenge for this company. I know they made an announcement earlier today where one of their critical executives is being repositioned and charged with trying to come in and redesign some of their AI strategy. That could be important. I think that's an acknowledgment

of maybe the AI strategy is not exactly where they thought it would be on January 24th. But to me, next week, that is the most critical one. In the case of Meta, the spending's a little bit higher than anticipated. The street expected 50, 52 billion in spending. They're coming in at 65 billion. Okay, they have to spend. Like, you have to spend on AI. And if you're spending a couple of extra billion dollars, it's worth doing it. It's really...

Apple is the focus. I'm going to go to Bryn for a second. I mean, no stock has more to prove, I think, next week than Apple. It's below its 50-day. It's below its 100-day. It's approaching the 200-day. Worst month since December of 22. It is the only of the MAG7s that is negative year-to-date. It's in danger of dropping to number three in market cap. That basically tells you everything to know about where momentum is in this name, and it's nonexistent.

Yeah, it's not existent and it's not existent in their earnings. So when you look at this 18% earnings growth for the year of the sector, for this quarter, Apple's looking to grow earnings at 2.3%. And that's with their buybacks, right? Which is like juicing that number. So I think that the technicals, to go back to Joe's point about how technicals can give you insight, the stock doesn't look well. I mean, I sold half

the position last year. I didn't sell all of it. It's a great company, but I think right now people want earnings and revenue growth. And 2.3% to me just doesn't justify it. And also when you started here, all the analysts that were just like fawning over the 16 are now just like moving that to the side and start talking about the 17. I just think it's the same story. You just need to have some more innovation. I think that the exciting thing is Meta and Amazon are looking to grow

mid 20% earnings. Microsoft's only 6.7%. But then you have NVIDIA at the end of February coming in 60, I think 68%. So really, Meta, Amazon, and NVIDIA continue to be the three of those names that to me are just growing those earnings so strong. And then therefore, those companies should deserve a higher multiple than an Apple or a Microsoft. Just pick

Picking up on what you just said, Bryn, I would add Google to your must-buy or must-own list. And I think you're absolutely right touching on Microsoft. I mean, that's one that really hasn't done well for quite some time. I'd put it in the same category as Apple, although it's not having as bad a year to date as Apple. Really what these come down to when we're picking within, I agree, Jason, it's not a monolith. When you're picking, it's not just the multiples.

It's the growth rate that's embedded in the stock. And I think when you look at Microsoft and Apple in the low to mid 30s on a forward basis for a multiple, and you look at their earnings growth rate, these are fabulous companies, but they just don't deserve that multiple. Doesn't mean they're going down. It does mean that something like an NVIDIA, which has a higher multiple, by the way, but a higher growth rate of earnings, or Google or Amazon, for that matter, to my eyes, are much more attractive. Are you worried about Apple going into this number? I mean, so...

So it's rather unprecedented. You've had this many downgrades going into a print. You had another negative note today from a firm that cut the price targets B of A, albeit slightly, three bucks, but they're not raising the price target. If anything, you've had a couple of downgrades, I think, this week, maybe had one last week or the week prior, but there is a dramatic change in sentiment from even the more bullish

uh people x dan ives there's no change in sentiment there but you know you get my point no and and i think there is definitely room for concern and as i mentioned earlier you know china down close to 20 percent right there and and where how how they have lost market share to other players in china i think that is concerning um the multiple i

Obviously, we talk about the multiple when the stock has, the stock rose a lot. It ran a lot last year. So obviously, the multiple has expanded. And to Bryn's point, the revenue growth hasn't been there. The earnings growth hasn't been there. I do continue to like the services business, but that needs to take more of a margin going forward. So yes, I think there's definitely concerns about the name in general. And I think that's why the street is kind of weakened. Let's be clear. I mean, Bryn, the...

There was a lot of conversation that the whole move last year was punk in Apple, based on what? From WWDC until the end of the year, the stock went up a ton.

Based on what? $110 billion buyback. Right. Well, there you go. I mean, this is where they've done a masterful job of managing their balance sheet and, to their point, returning cash to shareholders via the buyback. And they continue to do that. And I think between the buyback and the anticipation of this AI software inside of the 16th,

But that just hasn't manifested itself. And I look at my iPhone 14, which works wonderful. I have my Perplexity, my ChatGPT, and my Copilot, and I'm great. And so I just think they've missed the mark here at this point. Do I think we're going to go buy a different iPhone, like a Samsung? No. But I do think, to Jason's point, you cannot discount China. And China is such a massive market. And even though Apple is still in the top five,

Just not being able to have that excitement by the Chinese investors, the Chinese buyers to buy Apple, I think is going to continue to be, you know, punitive for them. And also, let's see what happens with currency. I know a lot of these tech names, you know, are going to are going to talk about the dollar strength last quarter. And let's see if Apple has talks about that as well. That's some news on Meta as we're having this conversation. I want to go to Julia Borsten for our news alert regarding that stock. What do we know, Julia?

Scott, Meta is announcing that it is beginning a test of ads in Threads. Threads is its fast-growing new social app. They say it's for public conversation. They are also announcing that the Threads community now has 300 million monthly actives, and three out of four people on Threads follow at least one business. So it's a natural segue to introduce ads on Threads. They say these are going to be AI-powered ads, and I'm backed by Meta's AdWords.

ad system, advertisers will be able to extend their existing ads from different platforms such as Facebook or Instagram onto threads. And they're also integrating Meta's brand safety and suitability standards and controls. Of course, this follows Mark Zuckerberg saying they are shifting away from third party fact checkers to a community note system. So they want to make sure advertisers feel confident in where their ads appear and also are going to give it give controls for what ads people see.

So this is just the latest news from Meta today after they announced 60 to 65 billion dollars in capital expenditures focused on AI this year. Back over to you, Julia. Thank you for that. That's Julia Borson. I don't see very much pessimism whatsoever about Meta heading into their number next week. Baird today overweight 680. They're expecting solid results as well. A guidance they expect to be good growth, growing their users, impressions, ad prices increasing.

So first of all, ads on threads is exactly what you want. It means that that is maturing and that is beginning to grow into what the meta believe the product should be. But it's remarkable on a day that you announce spending at 65 billion. It comes in ahead of the 50 something billion that the street is expecting. Your stock trades to an all time high.

So it tells you the strength about this company. You know, it's interesting because you were mentioning before how the analyst community thinks about the Magnificent Seven. And I was doing this real time as you were talking. So five of the companies, excluding Tesla and Apple, have a buy rating, a percentage buy rating of at least 80% of the analysts have a buy rating.

Apple is only 62%. That's probably the lowest figure that I've seen in terms of a percentage buy rating for Apple in many, many years. - Let's talk about a move. It's not in the mega caps, but it is in the software space. Adobe. - Yeah. - You bought it? - I'm adding to it. I mean, I think I know you, or you know I own it and it's been a dog, no question about it. You know, I think first off,

Pat on the back to you on Twilio. You bought that when very few people believed in it, and I think that's applicable to Adobe. I know there's competitive threats out there. We've talked about that. But I don't think those competitive threats are going to dislodge the PDF format that is the basis for Adobe's business. I think they're doing a great job integrating AI in it. I've had some cash in the portfolio build up from dividends. I'm looking at where do I see the value. Adobe just jumps out at me. Now, look, I've been wrong on this.

I could still be wrong. I'm saving some dry powder for after earnings are reported, which is actually several weeks away. And if I can, I'll add to it then, unless the thesis, particularly on the competition side, tells me that I'm totally wrong and I have to get out of it. But if I look at my portfolio and I say, where do I see something cheap that I can buy? It's Adobe. Maybe it's cheap because it deserves to be cheap. Well, that's the argument that people are saying, particularly with competition.

It's AI cannibalizing the products. But I think actually this is my belief that AI is being well integrated. Look, you use PDFs. We all use PDFs. I think Adobe does a very good job of giving you that summary button that you can hit. Just summarize this 10-page PDF for me. I think it does.

does a good job. Obviously, the share price has been saying that the market doesn't believe they're doing a good job. I'm making a stand. If I'm wrong, I'll get out of it. But I think at this price, it's a good entry point. There's a little bit of life, a little bit of life to the chart. I may be reading too much into that, but I'm buying into it.

Do you think that's life? What do you think? Smile. A little bit of life. Give me the year to date. You might be able to ski down that chart. Come on. Give me the year to date. Give me the year to date. Give me the year to date, please. Can we do that?

It's down 27% over the last 52 weeks. What's that, Joe? Year-to-date, it's basically unchanged. All right, but what's that in the last two weeks? Come on. Give me some luck here. The last two weeks? Come on. Year-to-date. I'm not just making it up. You said year-to-date. Stock's down 1.3% year-to-date. Look at that chart right there. Look at it. Okay, pull it back. The last 52 weeks is down 27%. Joe, I already acknowledged that five times.

You're a day trader now? You're buying zero-dated options also? I said I might be reading a little bit too much. That's when the Giants go from three to four wins. You're like, well, the team's showing life. I'm feeling good. Let's go. We can still make the playoffs. I feel like I showed enough integrity and acknowledged that I had the snot kicked out of it. It may be showing some signs of life. All right. Okay. Okay.

We have, well, we have two committee stocks that are showing a lot of life. That's for sure. Hitting fresh all-time highs today. We will discuss after this break. Learn how to use AI to be more successful with CNBC Make It's new online course. We'll give you examples that can help you master AI tools. Go to cnbcmakeit.com slash AI and register now.

Other things moving today that we want you to know about the XBI. How about biotech? On pace for the best week since July. This return, the return of the health care trade.

Is a big deal Jim. I and it you know what it's not just me in reversion. That's my belief I do believe we're supposed to be skating to this area of the rink This is where the bucks going to start with the valuations are really quite cheap across the space Not just you know biotech is a little bit more speculative because you got a lot of small companies that are coming out with new drugs But the whole healthcare space the valuations are cheap. You've got good dividends. You're through the election, which is always

is always a tough time for health care stocks. The demographics of an aging population support this. And frankly, the rhetoric that's come out of DC in the first week of this new administration is not too terrible.

for the space. So this is not just about mean reversion. Oh, it's cheap. There are fundamental reasons to get behind this space. Jason, AbbVie is your main stock in this group. You have a few others, but AbbVie reports a week from today. Yeah. So, I mean, for me, as it relates to AbbVie, you know, the big thing was Humira, right? Humira and the biosimilars, obviously that coming off the docket and looking at Skyrizy and Rimbocas now being the leading players, both of those drugs were up

close to 50% year over year last quarter. So their pipeline is rich. I like the free cash flow that they still have. And I think

To Jimmy's point, the election is over. That is no longer at play with a lot of these health care names. Joe, you got Boston Scientific, got Lilly, Welltower, Intuitive Surgical, ResMed, Stryker, Insulet. Yeah, and that's the right place to look right now, the medical devices. If you look at the IHI, the medical devices ETF, I think that's near an all-time high.

And Jimmy, or close to an all-time high, Jimmy, that's a stock that over the last 52 weeks is breaking out technically. The name that I do own is the XBI. You bought it at the very, very beginning of the year. I did. Two and a half weeks ago. Look, it's under...

disappointed me somewhat quite candidly. I would have expected a little bit of a better performance since the November 11th high. You have a series of lower lows. I would have thought that we would have gotten a little bit more of a high beta inflow allocation of capital. Almost 4% year to date. What do you mean? I wanted more from this. I mean, if you look at the stock, look, I know we're only looking at charts here over the last two weeks. Thanks, Jimmy.

but if you pull this back and look at it over the last fifty two weeks, this has been very difficult to own. Now, you mentioned that I bought it at the beginning of the year. Let's remember something. January 2nd. That is correct. And you're disappointed by the performance. Okay, call me out on this, Scott. You know how many times I bought it last year and got stopped out and lost money on it? So maybe this is the one time it works. But when you pull the lens back a lot further on the XBI, it's been somewhat disappointing. The right trade in healthcare right now is medical devices. Like

Striker? Yeah. You got Striker. Joe's got Striker. You got Striker. 100%. And I think elective surgeries are coming back online. They had been for some time. So, Striker and other plays in two surgical. Boston Scientific. I think these names could be great catalysts this year. I mean, you have other exposure, too. You have the IBB. Yep. Yep. So, again, I mean, it leads back to the point I made earlier. You know, directionally, interest rates heading lower. Election is over.

Not necessarily mean reversion, as Jimmy said, but I do think health care earnings going forward are positive. So I like that. Kate Rooney has the headlines for us today. Hi, Kate.

Hey there, Scott. President Trump is threatening to either fundamentally change or eliminate FEMA altogether while touring damage from Hurricane Helene in North Carolina. Trump added that the agency was, quote, a disaster and that he'll sign an executive order to begin overhauling or getting rid of the agency. The president has frequently criticized FEMA, which is tasked to help communities impacted by

by natural disasters. Meanwhile, Oath Keepers founder Stuart Rhodes and several others convicted alongside him will not be able to enter Washington or the Capitol complex until he has the court's permission. A U.S. district judge issued the order two days after Rhodes visited the Capitol following his release from prison. Rhodes was pardoned by President Trump after being sentenced to 18 years for orchestrating that attack on the Capitol.

And firefighters could be getting some help battling the wildfires that have been burning across Los Angeles area for almost three weeks now. The National Weather Service forecasting some much needed rain in that region over the weekend. And while the rain will help put out those fires, it could also bring some new challenges such as dangerous mudslides. Scott, back over to you. All right, Kate. Appreciate you. Thanks. That's Kate Rooney. We've got Santoli on the other side. We have more stocks on the move. We're on IPO watch, too.

The biggest since July. We are waiting for the first trade. We'll bring it to you when it happens. Learn how to use AI to be more successful with CNBC Make It's new online course. We'll give you examples that can help you master AI tools. Go to CNBCMakeIt.com slash AI and register now. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli at the desk now for his midday word. What's your big takeaway from this week?

Volatility dissipating as the market kind of gets back into gear. A lot of the familiar drivers, you know, we've had this sort of I wouldn't call it a growth scare, but it was a yield scare that caused people to wonder if growth was going to continue. Obviously, it has. And the fact that volatility has come in, not just in stocks, but across bonds as well, suggests that, OK, we feel as if volatility

The environment is familiar and it's continuous with the trends that we were mostly enjoying last week or last year. And no policy surprises of a sort that the market really has to be too alarmed about in the short term. I think all that bundled together gets you to the new high. The other piece of it, S&P makes a new high first since December 6th. On December 6th, the 10-year closed at 415.

So you can do fine when bond yields go up by half a percentage point if everything else holds together. Yeah. So what does it all mean then for next week? You know, three of the mega caps are going to report. Yeah. How would you assess what's at stake? I do think the bar is kind of high. We've had pretty good responses, obviously, the banks and Netflix. The bar is high in the sense that people have not really cut back their numbers very much going in. And I was looking back.

to the mega cap tech reporting weeks of the prior couple of quarters, it wasn't really an upside catalyst. I mean, the numbers were good. It lets you build your estimates for the remainder of the year in a way that was constructive. But if you go back to the third week of July, market was beginning a correction at that point. Third week in October, market was still kind of in the pre-election jitter phase, and it did not provide immediate traction. So I don't think you look at it for a spark to the upside.

But you say, does the full year earnings look OK? And then, of course, the Fed meeting, I don't know. I feel like the inflation stuff feels like it's a little bit more tame in the last few days. You've got some of the shelter inflation looking a little less scary. Hopefully, that should maybe minimize the amount of drama market-wise. I think you could make the argument that you don't need those stocks in the here and now to spark your word, something to the upside. But in some respects, it does

prevent a move to the downside. Absolutely. It definitely would. It buffers the index against big moves to the downside. Yeah, without a doubt. All right. I'll see you on closing, Bill. Mike Santoli, our senior markets commentator, calls the day coming up next. Why one top analyst says, quote, not too late to get into a stock that's up 14 percent this week alone. We'll tell you what it is. We'll trade it and debate it after the break. Calls the day. We're talking FinTech.

to start things out, Visa today. Piper Sandler raising the price target of that stock and a number of others in that space. Bryn, your own Visa goes to 368 from 322. They're overweight. That stock hitting a record high.

Asset light operating margins are in the 60s, profit margins in the 50s. They're heavily investing in blockchain. People will continue to swipe globally. So I just think this is one of those core holdings like a Costco or what have you that you can just hold and compound the growth.

Jimmy, you own this too? This is your payments stock of choice? Yeah, I think there's a put and a take here. The put is I don't think anybody's going to be surprised by U.S. consumer growth in retail sales in particular, which will obviously benefit Visa. So that's not a surprise. That's probably more than baked into Visa. On the other hand, to the extent that the international economy can pick up and people can start consuming outside the U.S., that will benefit Visa's cross-border payments significantly.

If you're in Visa, that's the thing you're looking for. Block, Joe, Target 101. They're overweight, the name. PayPal, 93 from 88. You're in that name. MasterCard, 591 from 575.

overweight. You're in that name. Yeah, a couple of things here. Number one, the momentum, which the ETF is not in Visa. The momentum near term, Jimmy's going to care about this last two weeks. It's a lot stronger in Visa than it is in MasterCard. And that's distinctly different than what we witnessed in 2024, where there was more near term strength in MasterCard. I've talked to

about block ticker symbol XYZ now. Pretty interesting. I've talked about potentially this being the one name in the financial sector in 2025 that is one of the leaders in that actual sector. They've done a great job in terms of diversifying and PayPal has woken up. People have made the

the valuation argument there. It's been mid-teens valuation for extended period of time. But finally, second half of the year, it's awakened. You've got strong momentum there. You find it ironic that the guy who runs a momentum ETF is giving you the business about talking about a two-week chart?

Is it just me? Last time I compliment Joe, I'll tell you that. Oh, shit. You pat him on the back. Guy runs a momentum ETF. Don't turn your back to this guy. Momentum can turn quickly. I'm just kidding. Everybody knows I love Joe. How could you not love Joe? All right. When we come back, college football.

crowning a new national champion this week with Ohio State beating Notre Dame to cap the first 12-team playoff. Coming up, as big money continues to transform the sport, former NFL player Brandon Copeland joins us on the movement to give student athletes an even bigger voice off the field. That developing story is next.

All right. Name, image, likeness. Three words that have thoroughly transformed college football into an even bigger business, with some student athletes commanding millions of dollars a year to play for one of the nation's top programs. Now a movement is underway to give players an even bigger voice on the future of that sport.

Brandon Copeland played 10 years in the NFL, now spends his time advising and educating the next generation of athletes. He is a member of CNBC's Global Financial Wellness Advisory Board, joins us once again at Post 9. Welcome back, it's good to see you. Thanks for having me. You are at the center, really, of this conversation, I think we can say it is, about where this is all going from here, specifically in terms of athlete representation at the collegiate level.

So it was reported that just before the national championship game on Monday night, that prior weekend, there was a meeting of about 50 players who were discussing how to have a bigger seat at the table. And you were in the room. Absolutely. Can you shed some light on what was discussed and where this is all going? Yeah. So first and foremost, it's historic that.

Like you said, college football players would fly into Atlanta on, frankly, their first weekend back from school break, so to speak, to talk about the business of college sports. They did that through athletes.org, their chosen players association to talk

understand, get educated first and foremost, but then also to organize and understand their thoughts on the different issues that college athletics leaders are making decisions on about them without them. So how long should transfer portal be? What happens if you get hurt in the middle of the season and you have this NIL contract, but now because you can't play, the school takes away your NIL contract, right? There's a number of things that are going on in college athletics right now that the

average fan sees and thinks that college athletes are finally making money. However, it's not all going through as planned. It's not as clean and organized as the pro level. So what does that actually mean? What does that look like, right? We had one young man who was a five-star recruit, was going to go to a big SEC school, and he was going there, and he said during the conference, if that school would have paid me the money that they promised me,

to go there, then I would have paid for my father to have another kidney. And his father passed away last January. We have other folks who a quarterback from Northwestern spoke about how at your spring evaluation period, he's transferred a couple of times, but

sometimes the coach is telling you, hey, you will never see the field here. So you either enter the transfer portal or we're going to push you off of this team, right? So there's a number of different things where college athletes right now need to be protected in their own players' associations so that they can have rules and standards that protect their livelihoods from compensation and health and safety standards. To what degree do the institutions need to be protected, do you think?

In terms of your promising millions of dollars to a student athlete to go play football at your school, theoretically over a four-year period. And if you decide that you're not going to stay for all four years, what protection is in place for the institution that has ponied up this money? Right now, none, frankly. That's why you see guys that are literally decommitting from schools or they're red-shirting in week four of the season as their team is decommitting

uh... having them most successful season of their you know generation so to speak you know these quarterback did that in the middle season last year right because he was promised money that he'd never ended up getting and so i think that by having the representation opportunities for the schools to actually have some real contracts that they can uh... overseas will to which is why we're so beautifully at the pro level

We'll come back to you in just a second, but that bell is because of the second biggest IPO since July. Venture Global is open for business today.

It did price at $25 a share. That was down from the 40 to 46 range. And you can see the trade on your screen right now. It's a down, obviously, and we will track that for the remainder of this day. It is an LNG exporter, but it is big news because it's the second largest IPO since last July. Another question. Just basically, do you think NIL is out of control or not?

I think NIL is out of control for a couple of different reasons. I think NIL, what people have to understand is NIL is name, image, and likeness, which is a marketing deal. So for Patrick Mahomes, it's a subway deal, a state farm deal. It's not the check he gets for throwing a touchdown pass to Travis Kelsey. It's not pay for play. The NCAA and schools don't want to admit that it's pay for play because they're also afraid of triggering employment status for their athletes. When you

You create this house of cards, which NIL is, and you're not necessarily giving athletes a piece of the revenue that they generate for the media contracts, the ticket sales, the concession fees, and things of that nature. Now you have these mis-structured contracts that end up being, again, what we keep seeing in the market.

with lawsuits, lawsuits, lawsuits, lawsuits. There were seven players from Florida State basketball team that just filed a suit against their former coach and the school for promised money that they never actually received. And this is happening all over the place. There's only a few people who are coming out and actually suing today, but there will be more if they don't clean it up. Is it the free market working the way it should? Or, for example, Carson Beck.

most might know, you know, was the starting quarterback for the University of Georgia. Great player. Gets hurt, gets replaced. He's transferring to Miami for $4 million. He's probably only going to be there a year. Brock Purdy, who is the starting quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers, is still on his rookie contract.

I don't even think he's making a million dollars a year. Is there something wrong with that dynamic? Does it need to be fixed or is it purely the free markets at work? I think that it's it

It needs to be fixed, but it needs to be fixed in a way where the schools have their representation and the athletes have their representation. Right now, the reason why this dynamic is happening is because the schools are trying to solve it all themselves without necessarily bringing the athletes to the table to figure out what the real structure should be, right?

Until you bring the athletes to the table, you're going to try to continue to impose rules on them that they're not going to comply with. We just recently saw Wisconsin had a cornerback, Xavier Lucas, who decided to transfer. He wanted to go transfer to Miami. Wisconsin wouldn't allow him to transfer. So he said, you know what? Since you're not going to let me transfer, I'm just going to go. I'm going to unenroll and I'm going to enroll at Miami. The NCAA come out and say, hey, you always can unenroll and enroll at another school, which is news to everybody.

Right. But what's the point of a transfer portal and all these other rules? And what's also going to stop a team in the middle of the season from getting the hot quarterback and saying, hey, can you unenroll at your school and come over to my school and let's make a run? If you don't bring the athletes to the table, then these are going to be problems for so many people involved. And frankly, I played with Bill Belichick for for a season with the Patriots.

I can't imagine how he's going to deal with having to recruit players every single season to want to stay at UNC. Were you shocked that he went back to college? Shocked? Yes, I will say. Yeah, I was shocked. But I think that hopefully this year off, you know, I've seen him smile more in the last year than a whole season. So hopefully it works at the college level with how he's coaching his players. Eagles, Commanders, Bills, Chiefs. The winners will be?

Who? You got commanders. I got Jaden Daniels pulling it off, right? The young rookie pulling it off. I knew I liked you. Next game. Next game. Yeah, you got the Chiefs doing it. I think the Chiefs, there's not too many teams that have a Super Bowl routine where they know exactly what they're doing to get ready for this moment, and I can't wait to watch this weekend. All right, nor can I. Appreciate you being here. It's an important conversation. I'm glad you're right in the middle of it. That's Brandon Copeland.

once again here with us at Post 9. We've got finals coming up after this.

We have the setup. We've got some key earnings next week and beyond the mega caps. Lockheed Martin, Jimmy, Tuesday before the bell. I like it. I want to see the earnings come in and then see if I want to add to it. I think it's been knocked down way too much on this idea from Elon Musk that the F-35 stinks. The F-35 is going to be around in many air forces for many years to come. That plus missiles. I'm sorry. We're in a world where there's kinetic hot wars. Lockheed Martin is going to benefit. Chubb, Tuesday.

Tuesday, Joe. A little concerned here. Yellow light on the momentum. Hurricane Milton is definitely going to impact the earnings. Bryn, you got Tesla next week, Wednesday. Big day. They're looking for revenue and earnings growth of 8%. I will say the 50-day moving average is in the 200s. So they need to delight and excite investors to keep a forehand along this name. ServiceNow.com.

Service now, their AI tools, they're really starting to monetize them. I think those ASPs will be strong this quarter. All right. We've got a big closing bell coming up at 3 o'clock Eastern time. Venture capitalist Bill Gurley is going to be with us. We're going to talk all things AI, Altman versus Musk. You name it, we've got it. Cameron Dawson, Jill Carey-Hall, Stephanie Guild, Aya Yoshioka with me as well. Bring me a final trade if you would, please.

DocuSign. They crushed it last quarter. I think they're going to have another really strong Q4. Earnings don't come out until March 7th, so I think this is a great entry point. Jason. mCore. They will be instrumental in the data center build-out. I like this name. Jimmy. UnitedHealthcare. We were talking about healthcare in general, and to the extent that money comes back to that sector, just remember UnitedHealthcare is almost 10% of the XLV, and it will benefit. All right, Joe. Guidewire Software. Staying away from those MAG7 names. You notice that?

Yeah, that's true. You know what my final trade is? What? Jaden Daniels. There you go. Boom. Definitely. I'll see you on the closing bell. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern, only on CNBC.

Thank you.

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