The Tech Sector’s New All-Time High 6/25/25
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All right, Sarah, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the tech takeoff. The sector hitting a new all-time high. S&P less than 1% away from its own milestone. We're trading all of it, of course, with the Investment Committee. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Kerry Firestone, Jason Snipe, Steve Weiss. Let's check the markets here. We're a little mixed.

Today, obviously, you heard Mike talking about breath underneath the surface here. Not great. It remains very much a tech story. Joe, that's what's gotten us to within three quarters of one percent on the S&P from a new all time high. And the tech sector, as we said, the NAS 100 is at a record high.

S&P Equal Weight is down 60 basis points right now. So the broadening out narrative that dominated the early part of 2025, it's not in play. Steve has often mentioned, don't go away from the MAG-7. Well, here's the reasoning why. It's a MAG-7 story right now. It's about trying to get NVIDIA above that all-time intraday high.

at $153.13. We stalled at $153. I'm sure we'll take it out at one point here very soon. But it's about technology. It's about new 52-week highs. Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle, Cisco, IBM, the revenge of old technology, CrowdStrike, Broadcom, Afinal, all about technology right now. Yeah. Care, is this the way you want to ride this market right now?

Well, definitely. Because, by the way, you know what? Before I let you answer that.

It isn't just about technology. Okay? Financials. Industrials are record high. Financials are only 1% away. Utilities, 2% away. I know it appears as though it's all about tech, but actually, it isn't. There's a lot that's working. Yeah. So I was going to say that not MAG-7, MAG-whatever, 4 or 5. It's the ones that are less affected perhaps by tariffs, Microsoft software tariffs.

social media communications leading the way here but financials again very strong i was looking at names of american express charge from on the semiconductor cap equipment the industrials what technically on it's it's a combination of u_s_-based sport

don't care about the tariffs because they're not going to hurt me per se. And that's a theme of this market. It's why Apple is down and Microsoft is up. But it also is going to push against where we can be the upper limit with earnings coming in and who knows how strong. But if you're 28 times earnings as a group,

It's hard to push through that. We can get through this beyond the old S&P 500 high, but going up a whole lot further than that, I don't know. I think that we run into some selling pressure. Okay, we're going to bring in somebody in a moment who says we are going to go much higher than that. So we'll push back on that. But before we do that, Jason Snipe, how do you see this market right now?

Yeah, I think you got to respect the tape, Scott. When I'm looking at even some of the higher level kind of macro, oil is down 15%. The VIX is down 15% in the last two days. ARK Innovation is up 8%. So there's some speculative fever that's going on. Gold,

also down 3.5% over the last few days. And just thinking about this Iran conflict, we're kind of past that story and all the flows that are coming into AI, what's going on with financials. So for me, I remain bullish on this market. I think there's a lot of, even the tariff story, I think has been quieted down and just kind of paying attention to the price action. I think you have to kind of ride the wave here. Yeah. Barclays Weiss says, big tech inflows save America.

It's helped the overall U.S. outperformance of late. UBS says the tech rally has legs. We said Microsoft hits a new high. NVIDIA is not that far away. How do you see it? That's how I see it. I run a concentrated book and most of my book is in big cap tech.

So to me, they're permanent compounders and sure, valuation gets stretched every so often, but they eventually grow into that valuation. Plus, they've got the best balance sheets. They spend for growth, which is what their AI spending is. And the concerns about will they make money off of it, I think, are misplaced. They will. The timing is an issue, but they will make money off it.

So I don't know. I know why you want to be in other areas as I am and some of those areas that you mentioned, frankly. But at the end of the day, they're just permanent compounders that deserve, by and large, multiples they get. So why stray? So let's bring in the person I suggested thinks we are going to go not only to new highs, but well beyond that. He's Brian Belsky. He has raised his S&P target now back to

to sixty seven hundred he joins us by the phone uh... so you're playing this game i mean the market goes up and you you reversed course here why great question thank you so much for having a club i know you love it when i say about a mobile to be on uh... we wrote a piece of three weeks ago got and kind of detailed what we needed to be in terms of fine pole with respect uh... to be bullish now

I could have, should have, would have in terms of raising our targets a while ago. We wanted to make sure that we started to hear more about companies providing guidance. We wanted to hear more about and see actually less the law of diminishing returns in terms of the rhetoric and noise out of Washington. And then lastly, in terms of our own fundamental work,

which we've been publishing for a long time, when we take a look at earnings, which is a cornerstone to why we continue to be long, tech, communication services, financials, and discretionary is, for years and years and years, part of our process has been looking at earnings revisions. And earnings revisions for the majority of these sectors, especially tech,

have bottomed and are, we believe, beginning to go up a lot. So we think at the end, the last six months of the year, so the next two quarters, we actually think financials of the area, where analyst numbers are still way too low, that we're going to see a lot of very strong balance sheet and cash flow there that is going to drive earnings going forward. So that's why we are overweight those four sectors. And, oh, by the way, from a fundamental bottoms-up perspective, that's why we still like the market even.

and, oh, by the way, have the entire time. When we did lower our target, by the way, in April, we made a comment. We said we own what we own. We made no changes to our portfolios or allocations. So April, May, June have been one of the best-performing quarters ever.

of me running money as a published analyst for over 20 years. So we were right to remain prudently bullish. And now we're just adjusting our target as such. I'm just wondering if you're in any way premature in doing so. And the only reason I ask that is because if you're making a declarative statement that guidance is going to be good, how do you know? Number one, earnings season hasn't even started yet. You're making a declarative statement that there's more bark from bite from whatever happens out of

D.C. How do you know? We don't know what the ultimate levels on tariffs are going to be. The market obviously appears to be somewhat desensitized to that. We don't know the end game to the big, beautiful bill. And when you declare that the death of American exceptionalism, as you have today, was widely exaggerated and too vehemently applauded, these are your words, to hold any merit or duration in our view. I mean, there has been something going on

with the bond market and the dollar. So you make very clear statements here that I'm wondering why you're not at risk of being too early. Thanks for asking that. I really appreciate that. You know, as you know, my job is to be the chief investment strategist for BMO Capital Markets. We have the great fortune of traveling around the world and talking to clients all over the world, my institutional clients. We also know our institutional clients are massively overexposed. China and

in Europe and because they left America not because the fundamental reasons but because of other reasons they've been reluctant buyers of US stocks for over 20 years and they saw their opportunity to do so now we've seen the relative performance of those areas begin to suffer greatly we've also seen the relative performance of the dollar the majority of its losses were actually done the first four months of the year Scott something we talked about last time when we were on your show in terms of the bond market we are seeing some solidification which we've said

now since November of 2022 that we believe that 10-year treasuries are going to be entering a range between 350 and 450. From a normalization pattern, which we do believe that the major trend in markets the next five years is normalization, that's a pretty good environment to be in. Lastly, in terms of guidance,

When you take a look at charts, right, we are not technicians. We are not chart followers or affirmation confirmation. At the end of the day, we like to be more contrarian. If you take a look at the number of companies in the S&P 500 that are actually providing guidance, it's beginning to...

Like, not providing guidance, it's bottoming out. You want to buy things on the turn. So we believe that more companies are going to be, we're getting ahead of this because that's investing. You want to be before, before things happen. Companies are going to be providing more guidance in second quarter. Financials are going to crush the numbers. Financial companies are going to be the first to provide guidance for the rest of the year. And the market can, will, and should applaud that.

Weiss has something for you, B. Go ahead. Yeah, it's kind of interesting you talk about guidance when we've been in a quiet period for about two weeks and companies haven't even been able to talk to anybody about guidance. And as you go and look at the second at the at the guidance going forward, you have to make the assumption that we're going to get an awful lot of trade deals in the next week or that tariffs are going to come in big time on July 9th.

or Trump is going to push it forward. And given how unpredictable this administration is, what I come out with, because I also don't agree with your statement that it was vehemently applauded that American exceptionalism is dead.

I think that byline, that headline rather, lasted for all of two minutes. So to me, Brian, and I'm humbled to be able to put this to you this way, is that you came to your conclusion first and looked for a way to support it. And the way to support it is built on a house of cards or uncertainty. So you're making a bet, and I get that, and that's what you do for a living. That's what I do. But I just don't think you have the ammunition at this point in time to make that bet.

Well, thanks for your comment, Steve. I appreciate that. But what we do is research. We look at all 500 companies and they have to be 500. We also run all cap monies. We look at another 1,000 companies. So I have a team that scours through earnings releases. I know we're in a two-week quiet period, but not all companies report on a calendar basis, Steve. Also, with respect to you have to also, as I said in my comments to Scott and what we've written, you have to dovetail and combine what earnings revisions are actually doing, Steve, with

which the path of of guidance well you sometimes you do have to make a call by the health of cards i think it's too strong we're not going to comment on politics because i think what politics again it proved this year that politics have nothing to do with the absolute forms the stock market to give you their have to detract it's been proven out this year's i don't think i'm not a politician on a policy

Steve, can I speak, please? Listen, I am an analyst. I'm a published analyst. We've done the work. We've proven ourselves. We have a published track record. I speak what I speak. I say what I mean. And it's been proven. And it's been proven in my results. So you can punch holes in it as much as you want. It doesn't do anybody any good. I appreciate your side of the story.

B, so you're with us on Friday. I'm going to give Joe Turnover has a question for you, too. Let's let's do that. Then I've got to get to some news in a moment. But go ahead. Brian, third quarter debt issuance rises significantly for governments, corporations. Where are you on the relationship between rising debt issuance yields that potentially could rise not just here, but around the world and that relationship with equities?

Great question, Joe. Nice to hear your voice. We published this thing called the U.S. Chart Book, and we have a page for every single sector where we look at the operating performance of sectors. And if you take a look at where free cash flow is and where debt-to-equity is, the majority of debt-to-equity ratios for the majority of sectors excluding utilities straight down, free cash flow straight up. In terms of debt issuance, we'll see with respect to what's going to happen with the Fed.

Our call is not encumbered on the Fed cutting rates. Our call is all about what we're seeing in earnings and what we're hearing from companies. So I do believe that from a corporate perspective, in terms of the actual financial statements of a company in the sector which we look at, we think the U.S. companies are very well positioned.

All right, we'll leave it there. Brian, thanks for calling in. We're humbled that you're so humbled to be on. We are. And we'll see you in person, I think, on Friday, which is even better that we get to see your face and not only hear your voice. That's Brian Belsky at BMO. We do have a news alert. Brian Sullivan has it.

More on those Shell BP talks. Sully, what do you got? Yeah. So the Wall Street Journal, by the way, about an hour ago, putting out a story that Shell is in advanced talks or talks to potentially buy BP. I'm not going to throw entirely a bucket of cold water on that headline, but I will say that I've talked to a number of sources at BP.

Companies in and around the industry, bankers, et cetera. And here's what CNBC can report on this. It is unlikely that BP would be bought by Shell in its entirety. It is more likely if a deal transpires and it's possible no deal does transpire. But if a deal does transpire, it is possible that BP is effectively sold completely.

Not in chunks. That's a bad term. But maybe Shell buys some and say an Abu Dhabi national oil company or another international buyer buys other parts of BP. Again, this is in relation to the Wall Street Journal story yesterday.

regarding Shell potentially in talks to buy BP. My sources, CBC, can confirm that if there are talks, it is potentially about BP being bought in parts by multiple buyers, not just the Shell. Why would that be the case, guys? Well, BP, remember, really hasn't been itself since the Deepwater Horizon incident.

a disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, had to spend a fortune on that terrible PR, just an awful disaster. The company then tried to pivot to more sort of renewables outside of oil and gas, changed the name effectively to Beyond Petroleum. And some of the marketing campaigns

The company struggled. Their leadership, Bernard Looney, left the company. Murray Oshensloss is now the CEO. So there's been a lot of changes at BP. The stock has not performed along with the rest of the group. And Wael Sawan, who is the head of Shell, he's young, aggressive,

CEO who wants to get more in the profitable areas of the business certainly could look to make a deal. But if it's done, guys, it probably would not be BP being bought as a whole. It might be Shell buying some and another potential buyer buying others. I will continue to update the story as I do reporting throughout the day. All right. We'll follow it. Sully, thank you. It's Brian Sullivan with the latest as we follow that developing story. Kerry, you have a thought?

I was just going to say that when I followed the oil industry, which was decades ago, it was the crown jewel.

jewel of the British government's connection with industry. Sir Colin Marshall was knighted. It was just a phenomenal business with all of the oil in the North Sea. And what's happened since then is it's been an unbelievable tough situation the last 15 years. Joe, you have a thought on that? I know Paul Singer and Elliott were still there. Steve, do you know if they still maintained a position or not? Don't know, but the position's not big enough to drive a

conclusion here. But listen, BP, to Brian's point, has struggled. This would create quite a conglomerate, though, in Europe. This would rival the size of Chevron or Exxon. So I see this potential synergies, and the synergies really exist just because of the struggles that BP has had over the last several years. I think there would have to be a strong premium here that Shell would have to pay of at least 20 to 25 percent. It'd have to get through the government also.

We might as well talk about industrials at the moment, frankly, if that's a segue or not. We're going to do it anyway. It's at or near a record high for that space, and there is plenty of ownership on this desk. Weiss, how do you feel? So Caterpillar, FTAI, Leidos, the XLI.

ETF. What about that space in the here and now? It's trying to raise its hand and say, hey, don't forget about us. We're doing quite well. It's not all about tech. Yeah, and there are different elements to it. The airlines, of course, are part of the industrials. And flying, I mean, airfares have doubled and tripled, and they've

So despite cutting capacity in some of these markets, they're generating much more revenue, much higher profitability. So that's one reason of the industrials.

But overall, I think it dovetails with the move in the market. So as the market moves higher and is led by one group, you look to spread out your bets and see what hasn't had that kind of move. So that's why Caterpillar is one of the reasons why I'm in it. And if I'm wrong on what guidance is and what the economy looks like, then I won't have exposure there. I mean, the economy looks pretty good. It does. And we heard from Fed today. Fed Chair Powell continues to say as much. I mean...

The bulls like Belsky, they may have the last laugh in this whole thing, quite frankly. But what we don't talk about, and I don't expect to see employment really drop, unemployment really go up, is that when you lose the immigrant labor that you have,

you tighten the labor force. And what that means is you've got to pay a lot more. And we see in some of our companies, we hear about from other companies, and whether it's the electrical contractors or other contractors building out these big data centers, I mean, skilled labor is very tough to come by. So wages go up, and then the consumer hangs in, and people spend more. I don't know what to tell you. Well, it's a certain segment of the economy. It's a skilled labor part of the economy, and it'll feed through the others. So I don't disagree, but if wages go up,

up, the economy will do well, undoubtedly, but the Fed won't cut. And a lot of markets bet on that. If they don't cut because the economy is strong to the point where they don't have to, then so be it.

Well, my point is they may in fact, I don't see it right now, but depending upon tariffs, which you're looking at as a one-time event, and we'll know more on July 9th. Yeah, and Powell himself doesn't know, which he continues to say. Nobody knows yet. The only reason they're on hold is because they just don't know. Right. And they want to be extra sure. Right. Despite some of the other calls this week from other Fed officials that maybe July should be really live. Right, but...

My point is they've got a dual mandate. One's inflation, right? And that's the one I'm talking about. And you will see that with wages going up. They watch that very carefully. So they're in a very tough spot. The point is a 70% probability that we see in the markets of two cuts this year. I don't think that's a great bet. I think you could get one near term because it'd take a while for inflation to feed through. I mean, the other area, if you want to say, is playing right in the hands of a better than expected economy is the financial group.

Best week since mid-May. Over the period of one month, you have nice gains from the Citi Groups, 11 percent, the Goldman, 10 and a half. You've got Goldman. Jay, you've got Goldman. IPOs have been picking up. We're not hearing animal spirits again yet, but there definitely is more optimism around capital markets activity.

A hundred percent. Let me clarify my remarks at the beginning of the show. When I was defining the environment, I said it's all about technology. I'm talking about today's today. Today, the equal weight is down 60 basis points. But you're right, Scott. You said this before. Industrials have been the leading sector. Financials are there to participate as well as it relates to industrials. I think a lot of people have dismissed the premise that the commercial airline production growth was real. That's impacted a lot of those industries.

companies like Heiko and like Howmet. And then in terms of financials, if we were talking six, nine months ago, we'd be talking about insurance companies. We'd be talking about Chubb and Allstate. We'd be saying, OK, when are we going to get the participation from other areas like private equity? Well, look now. You have KKR, which is finally participating once again. Certainly JP Morgan, which

traded to an all-time high recently. That's working as well. So it's broadening out the opportunity in the financial sector. I also think that the markets see something in the regulatory relief in the back half of the year that is going to benefit the financial sector. That's starting to get baked in, too. Jason, Blackstone and KKR overweight reiterated today.

At Morgan Stanley, you have Blackstone. Kerry does too. But what's your thought here on these private equity names, which are sniffing something out? You got it. And obviously, Blackstone has been an underperformer this year, down around 16%. But they really play in this infrastructure space. They just bought an energy company for about,

almost $6 billion that provides electricity to New Mexico and Texas. They have $177 billion of dry powder that's looking to be deployed. So I just think that the macro is less cloudy, which I think is creating an opportunity for these PE players to really get busy.

Yeah, I would say that in order of importance right now, regulations have been part of the story. It's deals. The idea that these companies can do deals and realizations are the IPO market picking up. And the last thing, if interest rates come down, that helps the PE market. Weiss? Weiss, you don't own any private equity names? No, I don't. And that's been a complete miss. And I keep looking at them. KKR, I like quite a bit.

And I don't view them as expensive, but with the market sniffing out here, it's very related to the bank trade because these companies have been running continuation funds, which means that they can't sell into an IPO market. So they give back money to investors, other investors step in. So if you can go, if you can liquidate your holdings in the IPO market,

You'll drive your fee realization. And so it's very, very closely aligned with the banks for those reasons. They are doing deals. They're able to finance deals. That's never stopped. So I do think there are good plays here and good buys. And, you know, I may surprise you next week. Let's wrap up the block by just talking about a couple of moves from Joe that he has on something that he's talked a lot about this week.

And last, it's the Israel ETF. You're out of it now? Out of the Israel ETF and the other side of that was ownership of Canadian oil companies Suncor and Enbridge. This was a collaborative trade that I put on Friday, June 13th. I was basically buying Israel. I've done well in that trade. Obviously not so well in Suncor and Enbridge.

exiting the trade in totality, I have probably about a 3.5% gain on the whole trade. All right. Let's take a break. When we come back, a big drop for one committee stock. Plus, we will debate our top calls of the day. There are many. Halftime's back at 2.

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All right, we're back. We want to take a look at shares of QXO. They're doing a $2 billion stock offering. They're in the bidding war, right? What's your thought? You've been in the stock a long time. The stock's down 85% from its 52-week high. First of all...

Why are you still in it? And what do you make of what's going on now with the news reports of this bidding war? Yeah, and I'm not down 85%. I know you're not, but I mean, the stock is obviously making a statement. No, no, it's not. What it was, so Brad Jacobs announced that he was buying the company, and it was at $5. And I don't know who the fools were that bid it up to $200 and change, but they were

there was basically just Brad Jacobs saying he's buying it. And Brad Jacobs didn't buy it for that level. So Brad, when Brad took control, he did a pipe, priced the pipe at $9.14. I was one of seven that were in that transaction. Oh, okay. Okay. And that's where I got in. That's where everybody got in. Volume is very, very thin. There was no surprise to anybody that when you have that kind of massive dilution, the stock price is going to reset. And that's what it did.

Now, here's what's happened. He's been a money-raising machine, and each dollar he raises translates into future revenue and growth. So I like the fact they raised it. By the way, that block was done overnight. It was done by all big names, big fundamental producers. He's had no problem raising capital. Do you care how the competition—

comes out for the GMS asset? Well, you know, all we have, look, Brad is a one and done most of the time. Now, when he bought Beacon Supply, he raised it by, I don't know, a dime or 20 cents. So he's very disciplined. He's consolidated companies. He's made a fortune doing it, as has his shareholders. United Rental, you're up over 100 times.

So right now what we have is a headline that Home Depot's doing. So Brad's not in a bidding war. If Home Depot comes in at $98 or $100, I don't think Brad's going to follow him in. But he's got a war chest, and he's got a long list of M&A targets. So this is a permanent compounder.

So this is one you want to own. He's promised the market. It'll be a $50 billion company, you know, in over the next decade. All right. Service now by at D.A. Davidson. It's initiated that way. Eleven fifty. Jason Snipe is the price target right there.

What do you think? They'd say they're in the early stages of disrupting the CRM market. I absolutely believe that with the new product innovations on their generative AI tools, this stock was down almost 20%. You know, pre-earnings is now down around 5% year to date. So there's been a lot of push. The earnings growth was really good at EPS. EPS growth was 19%. Revenue growth was 18%. But they now have over 500 customers at iModels.

annual contract value above 5 million, which is 20% year-over-year growth. So there is a lot of momentum here. So I continue to like this software name.

Carrie, S&P Global reiterated overweight JPM. $575 is the price target. We expect S&P to organically grow revenues in the high single-digit percentage points over time, aided by innovation, pricing power, and cross-pollination of solutions across five segments. What do you think about that call? I think that all makes sense. I think there's more to go. That's 10% upside from this price. It's never a cheap stop.

It exists in a monopoly or duopoly situation in many of their markets, including the ratings business, which has been weak because not a lot of issuance of new debt. And there will be if interest rates come down. We're jumping to McKesson reiterated by seven hundred seventy five bucks at Argus. Joe, this is yours. They're really executing cost efficiency. It's almost a strategy that we saw in play a number of years ago, skinning down the business, moving away from areas that have been underperforming.

getting out of geographic areas like Europe that have been challenged as well. So that skinning down process is leading to revenue growth acceleration and the street is rewarding them. All right. UBS, they're bullish today on Ross, TJX and Burlington. They have increased conviction that those three companies are still good investments at current valuations. You own Ross and TJX. You sold Burlington in the most recent rebalance. Tell us more. Yeah. Highlight the word still.

Highlight the word still because what they're trying to do is defend against what has been poor price action. I could tell you that these still what do you mean still? Well, they're saying still because they're defending against the still good still good. They're defending against the poor price action in a lot of these names. I could tell you that these names have lost the momentum clearly. We're in an environment where maybe not so much off prices as valuable as we previously thought collectively of all of them. I still view TJX.

as the best in class just because of the economy of scale. You got a thought on that? No? Anybody else? I mean, I'm looking at Lululemon and that stock just continues to make lows. It's been terrible. Continue to make lows. You're looking at it and maybe buying it?

You know, I keep looking at it. But then, you know, competition is really hitting them. You've got Aloe. You've got others. But that's been the story for like a couple years now. Yeah, but the growth they've had in their store base, the competition, is pretty significant. A couple of years ago, yeah, they were on the scene, mostly online. But now it's online.

I don't know. I'd like to buy it because I think it's a better company than those two, and those two are short-term. What do you think is a better buy right now, Lulu or Nike? Where's the better risk-reward? It's asking if I want to die by gun or by sword. So, you know...

They both have the same issues. I mean, Nike's seen massive competition come in. What about sourcing? China's the whole issue with Nike. Is it also true with Lulu? I don't know. It is, but not to as large an extent. I'd probably say Lulu. I don't know what the valuation comparison is off the top of my head. Well, Nike's cheaper, but I'd probably say Lulu. Yeah. Contessa Brewer has the headlines. Hey, Contessa.

Hi there, Scott. A court hearing is set to begin this afternoon over the release terms for Kilmar Abrego Garcia. That's the man the Trump administration mistakenly deported to El Salvador. He's currently in federal custody awaiting a trial for smuggling charges after he was brought back to the U.S. earlier this month.

but likely he would be placed into ICE custody after he's formally released. Walmart's looking to speed up deliveries by opening up so-called dark stores, which resemble regular stores, but they're closed to the public. Bloomberg reports these locations will carry popular items to help Walmart cover a wider delivery area. That company expects its online business to be profitable this year after investing billions of dollars to compete with Amazon. And Ferrari.

Ferrari unveiling today a racing yacht prototype. The maker of this high-end supercar that we all know is branching out into sailing. Ferrari says the 100-foot vessel does not have a combustion engine and instead will be powered with renewable energy generated by its sails. Ferrari adds that the yacht will be used to research technology that could actually be used in the future for cars and in motorsports. That's exciting. Scott?

All right, Contessa, thank you. Contessa Brewer, straight ahead, your second half playbook. We'll debate a fresh list of stocks to own in the third quarter when we come back.

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Mom, can you tell me a story? Sure. Uh, this is the story of Redfin. You mean Red Riding Hood? No, I mean Redfin. Once upon a time, there was born a real estate brokerage that was also a magical app. They called it Redfin. Redfin is a real estate brokerage

Redfin is on a mission to get people the fairest deal of them all. Like in Snow White. With listing fees as low as 1%, Redfin agents charge half of what others often charge. So you have more money to put towards your dream home. And the Redfin app has a clever way of helping you find it. A trail of breadcrumbs? No. They update their listings every two minutes and give personalized recommendations so you see homes that are right for you. And then you live happily ever after? Yep. Time for bed.

Mom, I heard this word and I want to know what it means. Uh, okay. What is escrow? I'll ask our Redfin agent. I'm sure they'll know. Download the Redfin app to get started. Fee subject to terms and minimums. Equal housing opportunity. CADRE number 01521930.

All right, welcome back. So Piper Sandler came out with a list today of stocks they say you should own in the third quarter based on targeting stable quality fundamentals. Overall, we do not think this is a good backdrop to be overweight, riskier or economically sensitive or low quality names. Now, I'm going to read off a bunch of names. We do have ownership and we're going to trade them because maybe you own them as well.

Charter Communications. All right. That's one name on the list. It's up 17 percent carry year to date. Most attractive on this list. That's one of them. Yeah. Well, we continue to think it will be. Well, Charter had a

a terrible past couple of years because of miscalculation. I think about rural expansion and then there's people cutting the cords. So they've gotten through that process. Now the rural expansion is starting to be additive. They've done more on the non-cable side of their business, meaning communications and phone planning. And that's beginning to show growth in cash flow. So we still like it here. Okay.

I'm also not going to get a read off names that we talk about all the time or that are obvious. Newmont, Joe, up 56% year to date. To play on gold, we have the position because of the strong momentum in gold. I wouldn't advise reaching for it right here. There are other names on this list that none of us own that I think are more attractive. Like what? Chewy, Ulta, and eBay. Chewy's up 30% year to date.

eBay's up 21% year to date. And Ulta. Ulta's up 6%. All three of those names, quality names, strong balance sheets, and seeing a revival in the momentum factor, which all three of those names were void of over the last 18 months. American Tower, Kerry, it's up 20%.

Another name that underperformed over the last couple of years, in part because interest rates were higher. Now people are realizing that the tower business is a utility. Their overseas business, which is half of what they own, has been very strong. And those markets have been improving. So people are moving back toward it. Jay, we haven't talked about Costco all that much lately. But it's on this list and it's up 9% year to date. Yeah, no, it's been a great company, obviously. And I think the concern around...

The consumer early part of the year played a factor, but they cater to the higher-end consumer. They've done very well in managing costs going forward. The Kirkland brand is growing really nicely. The traffic continues to pick up. So I like this well-managed company. I love the annuity business of the membership growth that they have. New holdings, Joe, up 31%.

That's a play in Latin America. You get exposure to digital banking in Brazil. Been a very strong name. Has a degree of volatility. You have to understand that and size the position accordingly. Expedia, down 10% year to date. Lost its momentum. Why?

I think it's lost its momentum. Here's the one for you. Why is Booking Holdings up 10% year to date and Expedia is down 10%? What's up with that? Yeah, I mean, they've kind of been, and TripAdvisor's been doing this as well, they've kind of been trading places in terms of where you're seeing the acceleration of growth.

I would say that Expedia has had a very uneven course since 2022, where Booking Holdings has been more of a steady rise. I think also the geographic exposure of each of these companies has come into play as well. So we have the ownership of Expedia, and a lot of that is because we saw some recent momentum

That doesn't seem to be validated by the price action. Kerry, you want to tell them? Well, I think the platform, I think their technology platform is a little more sophisticated. And I also think that the intra-Europe business, which is now very strong, less people coming to the union, is one of booking's strongest parts of its business. And that's very much. And you did hear me say, I think booking is better.

Thank you, Joe. Even though we own it. I wanted Carrie's explanation. Santoli's next. We're back after this. Welcome back to the Halftime Report. Our friends at Golf Channel are following the PGA Tour stop this week at the Rocket Classic. Golf Channel reporter Amy Rogers joins us live from Detroit with what to expect. Hi, Amy.

Hey there, Scott. Well, Keegan Bradley, the most recent winner on the PGA Tour, is teeing it up again here this week at the Rocket Classic. Bradley has put himself in a bit of a precarious position as the U.S. Ryder Cup captain has now played his way into the top 10 in the Ryder Cup point standings with his victory last week. And so now we'll have to consider whether to possibly pick himself for his own team or with a strong finish

over this closing stretch of the season could play his way onto his own team. Well, Bradley is one of several top-ranked players in the field here this week, in addition to Colin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlie. Also here, a two-time winner of the Rocket Classic, Cam Davis. He won this event not only last year in 2024, but also in 2021. So he is looking to do something that's never been done before at the Rocket Classic, and that is to win this event for a third.

third time. He said he's had some struggles with his game coming in since the beginning of the season and is hopeful he can find a spark here at a place where he has had so much success before. Now, it's hard to believe we're already at this stage of the season. The Rocket Classic just won a

four full field events remaining on the PGA Tour schedule. So it represents a final opportunity for some of these guys to make a move in their respective standings. You've got some guys looking to keep their tour card at the end of the year, others hoping to make a climb up the Ryder Cup points standings, while others are focused on the FedEx Cup points list. That's probably most top of mind here this week as the cutoff to qualify for that

The first playoff event in mid-August is approaching rapidly and the top 70 in the point standings will qualify. Scott? Bradley's win was so emotional last week, being from New England, obviously, and winning there for the second time. You have to believe that the "will he pick himself and play" question is just going to follow him right to the finish in mid-August or so when the team is selected.

Absolutely. I think it's definitely weighing on him. I spoke to him a little bit earlier today and he said it's created a bit of chaos in his life now as he's not only trying to do his full-time job out here playing on the PGA Tour, but now he's also got this Ryder Cup hat and now on top of it this possibility of also potentially playing his way in over the coming weeks. Now the few players that I've spoken to about this possibility are very much enthusiastic about the

possibility of him being on that team and said that they'll do whatever they can to take some of the work off of his plate to free him up just to be able to be a part of that lineup. Yeah, it's going to be fun to watch. Amy, thanks. Appreciate it. Amy Rogers for us up in Detroit. Be sure, by the way, to follow Golf Channel's coverage of the Rocket Classics tomorrow, round one, three o'clock Eastern time. We look forward to that. Up next, Santoli with his midday word back after this.

Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us now with his midday word. And Mike, this feels like one of those days where there's just not a catalyst on either side to be a decider where this market goes today. It's going to have to put up with the price action, which is kind of lame. Right. And it's essentially a little bit of modest below the surface payback for a pretty decent run to the precipice of these new highs in the index. So, yeah, negative breath all day. NVIDIA almost single handedly trying to

hold the indexes together. I mean, in general, markets making new highs are more bullish than bearish. Financials participating, you usually don't want to fade that. Even dull action in the indexes is net bullish. That being said, it wouldn't be surprising, month end coming, quarter end coming, to see things flatten out a little bit into the non-farm payrolls next Thursday.

So who knows if that's going to hover. I definitely think we've worked ourselves into a position here where you've priced in some benign outcomes on the trade front and presumably, you know, that economic resilience plus the Fed eventually cutting type story, which maybe we can't accommodate too much in the way of complication in the near term.

Again, markets kind of earn back the benefit of the doubt. You just have to watch how it plays from here. Yeah, and we will. And we'll pay attention to all those headlines, whether they're from Europe or here. Mike, thanks. I'll see you on Closing Bell. Mike Santoli. We'll do finals next. Are you following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the Halftime Podcast now.

See what happens with this market over the final stretch. We'll track it with Dan Greenhouse, Goldman, Sung Cho, Dan Ives, Lauren Goodwin, Courtney Garcia. We have NVIDIA tracking for a new all-time high. It's not that far away, so we'll watch all of that. And I hope you'll join me for the final stretch, 3 o'clock Eastern time.

Final trades. Mr. Weiss, what do you got? Taiwan Semi. You know, it's on also a lot of these lists that are quality companies to buy. The future is extremely bright. They are the go-to for semiconductor manufacturing and design. Who's got AMEX? I do. So AMEX breaking out above its 100-day moving average. Consumers spending and travel strong. Who's got AMD?

NVIDIA is not the only game in town. I like AMD here. I like the partnership with AWS for GPUs and CPUs. Watch this stock.

Where's yours? Jason just took my final trade. You guys both picked AMD. AMD, strong momentum right now. I will see Stevens' Taiwan Semi and raise him in AMD. Taiwan Semi is within 1.5% of hitting a new high. So NVIDIA needs to get to 153.13, I think is the number to watch today. It's not that far away. It's up more than 3%, and we'll track that over the final stretch. I'll see you on the bell.

You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern, only on CNBC. All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular opinion.

Thank you.

As a business owner, you wear a lot of hats. One minute you're ordering today's inventory and the next you're planning tomorrow's expansion. It's complicated, but your business credit card should be simple. With the Signify Business Cash Card by Wells Fargo, you earn unlimited 2% cash rewards on purchases for your business with no caps or categories to track. Signify Business Cash, the deliberately simple business credit card. Learn more at wellsfargo.com slash signify. Terms apply.