The Unexpected Lessons from Election Night 11/06/24
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On this square pot, one of several we are pushing out today to get you the best of our morning after the election square box.

How did IT happen? I think you have to acknowledge the trump is a gifted political athlete. I mean.

just is a stunning win by former president Donald trump, investment banker Roger ulman on .

the campaigns winning argument off, then you work four years ago and the american people rather resulting .

ly said no and the recriminations soon to start.

It's going to be be a slow, bitter and bloody internal process of the democratic party.

plus pregnant dictor Frank Lance and who turned out the .

vote downa trump support was so intense that he did not matter what people said about him, did not matter what happened at his rallies, he did not matter his debate performance. They were going to stay with him because they believe .

in him and his advice to democrats to move forward.

In names, coy, booker, west, Moore and Michelle M.

M. C. Produce Candy cramer. This squirt election twenty twenty four bonus podcast starts right now.

Donald rum, the former president in republican sidenote nominee, will defeat rival vice president comalong Harris and return to the White house for four years.

Made history for a reason tonight. And the reason is going to be just that we overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible. And IT is now clear that we've achieved the most incredible political thing. Look, what happened is this triumph .

is the oldest person at seventy eight to every win A U. S. Presidential election and will be the first since growers cleveland to serve non consecutive terms in office. That feet was some one hundred thirty years ago. Aioc cofounder nick Allen joined us with the .

headlines of the win. A trump romp was not a scenario that most Operatives, experts saw. How did he do IT one massive move with vota voters and improving his margins with voters that vice present hairs one, but that he did much Better with, including women, including independence.

For her part, vice president commonly herri is expected to address supporters. Later this morning, campaign cocher cedric richmond d spoke to Harris watch party .

after we still have votes to count, we still have states that have not been called yet. We will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken. So you won't hear from the vice president tonight, but you will hear from a tomorrow.

In today's bonus length four hour square box T V broadcast, we got into the decisiveness of the resolve and its impact on the business community, which had not coal est behind either candidate. Fully leaders across industries were divided in candidate support and public speech we heard today from investment banker and founder of ever core, Roger altman.

Altman was a contemporary of former president bill clinton and had worked democratic administrations. He had also signed on the letter of support for the vice president earlier in her one hundred and sixty presidential campaign. As always, walk box is hosted by joe turnin, Becky quick and Andrew ross sorkin. Andrew kicks things off Rogers .

altman here founder and senior chairman ever core your morning you were a support of como Harris. I'm so curious um you what you take away of of this election is as you look at what's happened here, how much of this was a repudiation of her personally, how much I was agreed petition of the last four years, how much IT was a repudiation of the of the left if that is to be set in and what kind of soul searching or introspections you think happens on a morning like this?

Well, do we have four, five hours? Uh.

have we have three as what happens when we have?

Well, first of all, I mean, I think you have to acknowledge the trumpet is a gifted political athlete. I mean, he just lives ah and anybody who tries to say differently, I think is just wrong. I'm not his biggest fan, but I you have to ignore ledge that secondly, the country obviously is shifting or has shifted to the right only. I saw in an exit poll only twenty nine percent of of voters in that poll identified as liberal and and trump dominated. The other is, is the country .

shifting angers of the democratic party? They ran so far left.

Well, the result, I think, is the same. In other words, I would think it's apart at some of each. I mean, if you look at the for example, and mark was just talking about the issue is that dominated the top two were the economy, especially cost of living and immigration.

Abortion was actually that based on what I saw an examples pretty far down the list, democrats would have expected that to be different, I think. And trump, again, he dominated in terms of voters who cared most about the economy and volkers who cared most about immigration. And so I think the country has shifted to the right. And by the way, we're going to see we're going to see a very isolated approach from Donald trump, which is consistent historically, which shifts in the right um but also that IT is a beauty.

No one how can no one knew there is a shift of that by that if we had arthuis rooks on in every booky is ever written, one of his main premises is the country is center right, center right, the vast take away the coast in its center right. And brack. Obama could have been elected twice by a center right country with with clinton easily elected by a center right.

And I even think joe biden, after the first time elected, you can't attribute IT to a rightly in country out of. I just think it's center right all the time. And what beck, he said the left is look at some of the basic tenets of the far left at this point rather I mean .

defunding police able to the .

country hasn't changed. The democratic .

party has get into that. I would just argue this. There is a conservative mood in the country .

may be immigration thirteen and illegal immigrant .

the at the same time, the uh american perception of the voter perception of the national version of the democratic party is really negative right now. There is no two ways about that. And let's be honest, st. Harris was not a strong candidate.

SHE just wasn't. Now you tell us.

um well.

you didn't tell that .

last week that I said .

I wasn't here last week. I think we've talked .

to her a long time. Candidate H, I mean that that's a bad expression in this case .

but I mean but we dressed her .

up the the main .

story may be straighter that I expect a sweeping Victory like this from top. No, I didn't know there was going to be extremely closed. Now that you see the magnitude, the Victory, you cannot conclude anything else.

I was a obviously speaking two days ago.

but I said she's a really reasonably good candidate.

How you've seen her word site you've seen or not to answer questions you we did had no idea .

what he stood for and make a judgment that SHE a strong I don't .

think you need time.

could have seen that going to campaign, give credit on any said this, that is best school garden rally, the famous reagan question. Now you Better off than you were four years ago. He literally said that. And the american people, rather resulting ly said no. And that proved so what .

are the democrats do? Do they continue to what they've been in, which is kind of labelling themselves the party of resistance and going down that path? Or do they say, OK, how do we remake ourselves and try and, you know, reconcile what we are hearing from the american people?

Well, first of all, we have to wait and see who wins the house. I think that's gona be a really big factor. A IT would seem a little improbable to me that the democrats win the house, but IT looks like it's gonna down to five seats in california in terms of who has to at. And if the democrat win the house, that I think the dynamic will be different than if we've been swept across the board.

So they would then you think the house would at that point say no to everything donal trump proposes? Or would they try to find ways where there is common agreement?

I think that depends on the issue. So immigration.

let's say.

both the democrats are smart. They work out a solution on immigration. After all, they ended up supporting the language compromise. And something around that ought to be possible to do, especially of truth, is supporting IT. Um the probable have to be some twigs to get him to supported but their courts will be smart to get on board with that because the country want IT. But in terms of your question, I hope I might be wrong, but I think it's going to be a slow, bitter, bloody internal process with the democratic parties as to rebuilding itself.

And you think the rebuild is is about personal and personality? Or do you think it's a rebuild around different policies?

I think it's the brand and .

the brand what very .

dealers said the other, he said the same thing.

He suggested that twenty eight was going .

to be but but he said that the democrats needed, if it's a big trump with craters.

are getting healed to on cultural issues, why have they done so poorly with, for example, non college men voters? And there's so much evidence that it's cultural more than economics, although when this election IT was moved and when you .

say cultures just define that for fox.

But I think I women in sport and in sport things like that well.

that type of thing, transgender issues um and the progressive side of the party a and I just think if the democrats you don't get to a more is .

not just .

centers but its centers culturally position, they're going to have a hard time. And you know if you look at these results of micelle gist talking about IT prompted much Better among women than democrat wood last night fight were early in the evening. What I kept hearing was the gender gap for Harris in her favor among women is about the same as IT is for job among men.

Fifty three of the vote is expected. me. Women therefore show with what turned out the gender gap in her favor among women was much aller.

Even more interestingly, I know if you saw there seems to be a sport vote in some cases where you voters who were on one side of the abortion issue voting in favor of of some of these ballot initiatives in certain states to allow abortions take place. And yet then we're voting for trump at the same time, which I thought was actually a very sort of. Unconventional thought in terms of what was happening. And that's not only that .

I had expected to be on, although he never virod and he said once each state and I said, do you think he was a mistake and and SHE finally tacked a little bit towards the end of about talking about what SHE planned to do rather than the fascist rapist um not the hitler T R. I mean that to our president now a fastest, not the rapist interaction is dictator.

except that the american.

What I mean then why go with that? Why keep hammer at home?

That's going to be it's going to be a lot of bitterness and d letting over .

how we got to this point.

Don't say blood letting .

of take .

IT out of content OK the wing of the party. Do they double down?

Well, they always double down.

So so yes, that's that's the actual the next question, if you think the party is supposed to have to the center does, does IT actually or do you actually think that that some of the folks were seriously on on the left, say IT was not left enough?

Well, they are gonna say that because my observation, they always say that in recent years. But I don't think that's where the part is going to end up. I think this is a reputation in many respects of the progressive side of the party, even though Harris herself did not run a sadlers like A C like campaign. But I think the ora around the party is right if it's a lot.

But I know we got to go, but I have one more question. You seeing the stock market IT looks like it's moving today in big way. You represent and work with lots of force and five hundred companies.

If you are CEO today running a business or even investor today, do you say this thing is gonna rip? As a result of this, all sort of of deals are going to get made. I know you you advise on lots of merges that is just like it's all gonna en up. Or do you say between inflation, uh, that could come from tariff s and all these other things that it's gonna much more complicated?

Oh, I think you're bullish. First of all, any trust alone, we're going to see a complete sea change in any trust policy, which has been a source of great concern for a lot of people in the business community. And we're going to see dee regulation in terms of of energy.

We're going to see a continuation. This seems to me of the full front tax cuts. And I think if for most people in the business community of thinking just about their business right now, politics, you're gonna bullish.

How long that last, I think, depends on exactly what trump cisely does. I mean, does he really go after mass deportations as he really compromise the independence of the fed? Does you really put on ten to twenty percent paris on all imports? We will see. But I think the initial reaction is positive. No thought about that .

is his speech at two thirty in the morning seemed to be one of unity positive and positive outlook on things. And that may be part of the reason you're seeing the reaction continue with the markets where they are. But I definitely did IT seemed like I was a positive.

upbeat message.

He didn't IT did, I think will see I mean this is also the same sort of message that he gave back in two thousand and six sixteen um but he brought everybody out on certain he brought everybody out on stage and there was a very positive field at all .

that mico just said. He is now a really important historical figure. You could argue he was before, but really now he is second person in the american history to regain the presidency.

This is a huge right. Uh, so sweeping. Yeah, I mean, it's it's stunning .

in its breath.

Could you even sweep the house?

Nobody thought that would happen. And by the way, up until you take ten oclock easily, when the new york times needle had Harris one in the popular ago.

it's more than .

five million in this fact.

Yeah, I know this is one last course. I know they're going to kill because one of the questions i've asked in a million times prior of this election, business leaders come on, they talk about leadership and they talk about character and all of this kind of stuff. Does that what does this say you about that? Well, now i'm just curious, I .

mean.

Honey.

get on and felt wanted them to prop up. Come on and it's probably a good idea.

But I look on a morning like this for me personally, by the way, is a morning of introspections one hundred percent. That's what this is right? If you are not waking up this morning, if you had any scepticism about a forming present trump, and what that cannot see would be like if you are not thinking to yourself what is happening here and trying to understand IT and trying to appreciate what you may have not understood. By the way, I think this is probably true of a republicans to to try to understand what they do and that's the point. And so the one of reason i'm asking the question um is that so if you are trying to be introspective around this issue of leadership and character and all of that, how do you um process this?

I have two part response, but it's a lot it's okay. Complicated question. Instead of a long lens of history, trump is a strong man.

However, you wanted to find that historical speaking is a strong man at this moment. Voters like that and are a lot of people like that. And I think, well, many people in the business community and private didn't cotton into trump. Uh, you have to just respect what he achieved here.

And the american people looked through, although all the craziness about truck, they obviously did and and they wanted the type of leadership he represents strong and bill clinton is famous comment, the boy is like strong and wrong, more than weak and right. I'm much trumps wrong, but that was clinton famous, common. And that played out right here. And I think if you're in the business community, you have to be respective you may not like him personally, but you've got a respective Roger.

and thank you for coming in so earlier this morning and helping us through this. And I hope we get an opportunity .

to talk you more about this. No, off the let me, let me do this and then you can go. We don't want you.

We d like you to stay. We never want to send to you. And I almost did a bill client limitation of another one of the most famous goals.

And I just couldn't do IT, and I just could not. I do. I just, there are times I do. I know you think that I don't there are times .

I do that you don't do everything that occurs.

Will will be right. Back, cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday, markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I, C N, B C, Jessica adding, go, follow and listen to C, C business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back to school pod with joe turnin, Becky ick and Andrew ross sarkin.

This is a very special edition of square box. Nbc news now officially projecting that Donald trump has won the presidency journey's right now holster and political strategy. Frank, once we've been talking to Frank now for many a months are in the days and in weeks leading up to what's been in a historic moment. Frank, and before we've been just get into IT, I want to get your biggest take away um and maybe perhaps surprise given are not sure that as we've been talking uh that this was not the outcome I think on the electoral college map but maybe even on the popular vote that you were expecting .

and when we know which was not supposed be till saturday.

So how come you compliment me four years ago when I did IT eight years .

ago and I said, hilary clinton will be the next president? I don't know. fake. I think a lot of what you've been seen the last couple weeks i've disagreed with, I have, I just have, and I disagree, ed, with you saying that is commonly had changed a few things that he would have won.

I disagree with that the country was not ready and I don't think he was ever in the lead. Like but enter interview. Go ahead.

Frank. To the extent i'm curious on the morning like this, to the extent that um anybody who is hopefully thinking about this is is trying to be introspective about where they were right and where they were wrong.

how do you think about IT? I think that the debate in .

matter and that's the single thing that bothers me crying, Frank.

No, IT is a surprise to me that the public and joe you, that I didn't bother you and IT doesn't bother the public, but the public has spoken. And what's impressive about this is that download p is able to survive an on slot of criticism through much of this campaign, and not only survive, but thrive. That is, gonna win the popular vote, which I did not expect.

That is, gonna win all the swing states, which nobody knew that. In fact, not only the windy, but he's bringing a senate with him and likely a house with him. This is signal.

And so what does that say, Frank? So as somebody who's been in this business so long time, what does that say to you about either the strength of uh, trump as a candidate and is a communicator, the weakness perhaps of uh, vice, present Harris as a candidate and communicate or doesn't say something a more broadly about the the country um and policy and the way they're thinking about this, the different parties. How do you break that down?

It's all three. Andrew. You correct in all three cases that Donald trust support was so intense that he did not matter what people said about him. He did not matter what happened his raley, he did not matter his debate performance. They were going to stay with him because they believe in him and they're committed to him.

And that is half the country Harris campaign in in their inability or unwillingness to define exactly what they would do in the first hours, the first days, weeks and months, that her unwillingness to to level with the american people and explain why some other issues have changed. Demonstrator, what a weekend day he wants. And in the end, I would have been someone else, not her, who could have beaten trump. And as for .

a lot of recriminations in the democratic party, um probably starting with bite and and Harris but my question is do you think that bite in their first should have .

stuck in this should have had a vote. The public had a right to choose this is the first vice president or the first canned for president other than when you have got forbid in assassination SHE had never put herself to the test SHE had failed in twenty twenty years is not be the most important thing for viewers. Her one chance to run for president SHE had done such a horrible job, and the children improve after four years. But in the end, it's also the disdain for high Prices, their disdain for insecurity at the border, across the country and their domain, and that the last four years that they did not succeed, that they failed on the inflation and affordability, and that the public did not want four more years of IT in the end. In the end, he was the public saying enough with an exhibition point in all .

caps when you think about what happens next in terms of the politics in in washington, IT does look like we may be headed towards sweep h what policy is getting acted what don't a what access a governor or not on that I know we talked a lot about um the business community often times saying they like divided government. I'm not sure that's necessary at the case given that we actually have uh the dad look look can open up twelve hundred, twelve and fifty point tire right .

now yeah and and the fact is they look at these policies, they were swimming that haris had a good job on. The reasons why the stock mother is doing so well right now is that they know that tax policies are going to be different, that growth policy is going to be different. The question is with the do they stand on terms because that's going to be a significant dispute in washington, both in the White house and congress. And what happens with that?

So the economist, you think all the account we look, you heard camaras say, by the way, I repeated IT the nobel, a prize winning economists who all said, uh, that trumps economy was going to become a problem. Even you on mosques saying at certain point that he thought there would be temporary hardship IT would be very interesting to see what happens over the next four years, of course. But clearly the american public did not look at that and say that either they are thought that was accurate, whether they they cared, right.

And neither is the business community. They may have said one thing a week ago, but there's saying something completely different right now. And you can see that they vote by how they're investing, by how they're committing more dollars and why the markets can open up so much cheer that their statement, that they agree with what happened. And my only warning is that we still are divided that with even with the republicans gaining a clear control of the senate and keeping control the house with a couple, maybe three, four additional seats, were still in evenly divided country, maybe fifty one, forty nine. And that i'm hoping that this outlines and is gata politics can somehow subsided so that we can once again have this really strong emotional fights, but do so with respect, with sibling, with decency that we haven't seen in the last brightling, the last eight years.

If you were Frank, if you were run, we had to run. But if you were running the dnc right now and you were trying to be respective to the degree you could be, what would you be telling them? They need to rethink.

I be giving them three names, cory booker, west Moore and Michelle rew, all brilliant political people that have amazingly strong records and know how to communicate the the american people. Either of those three people would, could have been downed, not saying they would, but could have. And that's what the democratic party needs. People who understand and come from this, come from the community and know how to community.

I notice one names not on that list that I thought might be super okay.

SHE piro and maybe graduating with mr. I'll take one thing. The democracy y for vice president is not on that list.

Frank wants it's good to talk you this morning. We appreciated, and we look forward talking again very, very soon. thanks.

Thank you for listening to this special episode of squad pod during cnbc s twenty twenty four election coverage. Squad box is hosted by joe carnon, Becky ick and Andrew ross sorkin squared is produced me a Cameron costa and Caroline where hot is john laserjet, our editor. Have a great day and hate. Keep your notifications on for this podcast. More is coming from cnbc throughout the day.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday, markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I C N B C, Jessica adding to follow and listen to C N B C business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.