Turning Point: A New Security Order in the Middle East? | Joshua Landis
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What's up, everybody? My name is the major cafes. And you're listening to hit in forces, a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs and everyday citizens to chAllenge consensus narratives and learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.

My guess in the episode of dating forces is josh ellis, the director of the center for middle studies at the university of oklahoma, who was brought up in brut, lebanon and has lived over fourteen years in the middle east. I brought john a back on the podcast today to discuss two possible futures for the midday east. The first will be defined by perpetual conflict, insecurity and the spector of nuclear proliferation. The second will be defined by a tenuous i'll be at hopeful peace built on compromise and regional security.

Professor landis explains why he believes that this choice is now upon us and that we are at ning point in the middle ast that provides us with a glimpse into what the future of this conflict ridden region will look like and how will fit into the larger global security order, or disorder that is currently emerging between the first and second hours of this conversation, we discuss the implications of the ongoing war, lebanon, the israeli war and occupation of gaza, the west bank, the future of the palestinian movement for independent statehood, the rightward shift in israeli politics, the status of the Abraham accords and the prospects for a new security arrangement and partnership between eight states, israel and saudi arabia, that can result in a historic reset of the political and economic status. Quote, in the still vital region of the world, if you want to access to all of today's conversation and you're not already subscribed the hidden forces, you can join our premium feed and listen to the second hour of today's episode on your mobile device using your favorite podcast APP. Just like you're listening to this episode right now by going to hidden forces that I O slash subscribe if you want to join in on the conversation, I become a member of the hidden forces genus community, which includes Q N A calls with guest access to special research and analysis in persons, events and dinners.

You can also do that on our subscribe page. And if you still have questions, feel free to send an email to info at hidden forces that I, O and I or some of from our team will get right back to you. And with that, please enjoy this incredibly provocative and thoughtful conversation with my guest, doctor Joshua, and is. Joshua landais, welcome back. The hidden forces .

to me is a pleasure to beyond with you again.

it's fantastic. Havin union dr. Land is hi. I don't.

I'm doing very well.

Are you back at home? Okhotsk.

oklahoma city, where I live and I teach at university of oklahoma, which is a Normand okhotsk.

So you're the director of the center for middle st. Studies, or politics there. So you also teach classes still.

I do. I teach, and I director, two centres, a ran center and the center for middle states.

What are the course that your change is? semester.

This semester I am teaching a class on the arbitration flick. Actually a graduate class on the air of is really conflict. The next semester be teaching international relations in the middle and will actually be going to italy to teach .

a little bit there of fantastic. So look, I brought you on because I wanted to revisit some of the things that we spoke about in our last two episodes, which were geared more towards syria, the withdraw of the united states from the, at least the breakdown in the rules based international order in its implications for the region.

That's the backdrop with the immediate context, in this case being the israeli war in gaza, israel, palestine, hezb lah, lebanon, iran, the proxy, all of that. You published a thread on twitter a little more than a week after the now infamous is really page attacks, and a few days after the destination of has on nara, the secretary general of hez belah, with five key takeaway for your followers, and I would say, especially for the air b world. Can you walk us through some or all of these and tell my listeners and I why you think they're important for followers of this conflict?

understand? Well, yes, I mean the first, very simply, the page incident, in which close to four thousand is below members and family members, others had their page blown up in their hand, and IT wounded many of them very badly. I mean, we saw pitches in the hospitals of people without hands blind.

Their faces have been completely filled with strap on. And he killed a number of the top people, and then their phones, some of the phones exploded, and other electronics, which was a devastating blow. Hezbollah, and we saw this on the backs of what's going on in gaza.

And IT demonstrated an exhibition of israeli power, just raw power, that we hadn't seen before, both goza and what was going on lebanon. And I clearly indicated that hadn't grown with the times in the same way IT believe that his rockery would be enough to really intimidate his real and causes real not to invade lebanon. That's what many leaders of his blah believed and its supporters believed in, that they could protect lebanon with their missile technology.

And that turned out to be false. Lebanon is getting pounded like goza did, and israel has been dominating and has thrown his beloved for a complete loop. Now I got a lot of criticism for this because many people said what that's irrelevant, because he's belt cannot be destroyed by assassinating its top leadership.

And that's true. Resistance is not over a hezb la can rebuild itself. I don't think that lebanese SE society and politics are in a position to remake.

You know, right now, as we record this carnegy foundation is having a number of people earn to talk about the new opportunities in the midwest that this is great. That's the new line from american israel that we are creating. We're birthing a new middle east and we're actually building something Better.

Well, that's just pure propaganda. Far as I can tell, it's not gonna D A Better middle. I don't think lebanon's e politicians are gona rise the occasion and fix their political problems, and or are they are going to be able to sweep hazem llah out of the center of lebanese politics? So yes, this is an incredible display of israeli and american power. In the end, it's not gonna make a Better middle ast, I don't believe, but IT is an extraordinary display of power and we can I don't think we can avoid that fact because IT changes realities in the middle.

So there are a number of points in your in your five key takeaway that will go through, but just a drilled in up a little bit on this one. All of the middle ast is an outgrowth of the disintegration of the automation empire and an attempt by colonial powers, especially britain, to refashion the region along nationalist lines. And within these nation states you have different sets and you have had sectarian conflict.

And limit on is a great example of that. And there are unique facts of its government that reflect the different sets and groupings within lebanese, the society that we're not going to have a chance to get into here. But recognizing those complexities, i'm curious, understand what I would take is that something that the united states initial can play constructive role towards what IT would take to actually help strengthen the lebanese government and not fall back into a situation where the most powerful group Operating from the government is actually a separate political entity, international itself, with its own paramilitary organization.

And that's also heavily sick talian. In the case of sha oriented. I mean, is there some way to rebuild lebanon because of sey? IT is in the best of of the israeli, is long term to have a secure nation state on the northern border that they can negotiate with. And not the conditions that you've had since one hundred, since ninety eighties.

right? Well, you know, to be as brief as I can. The us. Has tried since nine eleven in the last two decades, the U. S.

Has tried to reengineering middest, and in particular when George bush, the sun came to power after nine eleven and decide to invade rock, the idea being that amErica could create a Better government for iraq, one based on power sharing between sheets, sydney arabs and cards. But by getting rid of sarma sane, amErica didn't create a Better mass trap. The entire state collapsed. American power flailed. And what I did is that Sparked in an a very, very destructive civil war.

The same dynamic happened in syria with the arb spring uprising in syria and amErica jumped in on the side of the syrian opposition, and IT Sparked a devastating civil AR, which is not really over syria, now divided into three major administration of units, one dominated by turkey, in other by the us, to the other by assad, with his irritation, an in russian backing. So syrian is is devastate ted. Today, ninety percent live in poverty.

Nothing good has come out of all america's efforts. And we seen the same thing repeated in libya and other places. AmErica is not today a force for good in the middle st. Its efforts to, you know, nation build and regime change were not a good, constructive effort, not in afghanistan, not iraq, not in syria. So I think we have to start from admitting that.

Now, how can you, you know, what could amErica do to defuse some of these sectarian differences, which make these middle east n countries very weak and undermine their ability to respond effectively to real changes? And that was one of my points. I believe that was the third point or something like that, which is that middle eastern states have been very in effective because they're so divided.

I think defusing the conflict in the region is the best thing. This is gna take time for these states to overcome their deep secretary, an ethnic divisions. Within them, you need stability, the government that can fumble through, to create a common sense of national belonging.

And that's gonna take decades. IT took decades in europe. It's onna take decades in the middle east because he's a very new countries, as you said. So the way that to do that is not to try to destroy your enemies like iran and really make your friends like israel muscle bound, which is what america's policy is today. IT is to try to find a compromise.

And after in the united states has not done, the united states has helped israel cheap territory that IT has conquered on the battlefield, whether it's the goal and heights from syria, the sign I from egypt, but the sni, of course, was returned at camp David, and that's kept egypt out of the air. Israeli conflict in egypt has been a piece with this real, but the palestinians have not been given their land back. They don't have self determination.

They live under military rule, very unjust military rule, and this has caused endless conflict. And amErica thought that IT could just sweep the palestinians sue under the rug. Israel fight because it's so powerful that IT could pursue the Abraham accords, make peace was saved in the golfer's with the ones that count because they have all the money from the american point of view, and that you could make peace between the golf firms and israel and forget the power stenius that that was yesterday's news and IT turned out not to be yesterday, is we can't defeat our enemies.

We're onna have to make peace for them. That's what presidents obama tried to do with the iran deal that president trump overturned. And we're seeing now, again, a new chapter in the united states trying to win this war on the battle field and helping israel to take new land in lebanon and gaza.

And the settled movement in israel is gearing up to try to settle gaza. And IT might well do IT under this new government, but also israelis are begin to talk about keeping parts of lebanon in the south. And we don't know where there's onna go, but is IT could know if if this is an analogue of nineteen and sixty seven and one thousand and seventy three and so forth, IT could end up with israeli acquiring more territory and amErica defending that.

So you mentioned a number of things i'd like to get into. One is the Abraham accords, and another one is a someone of an analogue that speaks to the return of the sign to the egyptians, which was the one thousand nine hundred and seventy nine camped David cords between on where data, who was subsequently killed by A A radical within his own country. And I think IT was, when I hamburg, who was his counterpart.

The time and begin was by contemporary usage of the term, an extremist. In fact, if i'm not mistaken, he was wanted by the united nations for terrorism, for his role in the bombing of the king David hotel, which was the british administrative headquarters for Mandatory palestine in one thousand and forty six. And so you had the right, you had historic peace between two individuals that may not initially appear to be people that would have been peacemakers.

And I brought that I think it's an important thing to keep in minders. We move forward because netzer ahoo and some of his morraha religious cabinet members could fall in the same category, whether it's small, rich or bank ver. So those are things I want to talk about.

I want to I just wanna tie the not on this conversation about levit on because I know that sounds like i'm aware of IT. I'm not suggesting that this is reasonable and the smart people I know don't necessary suggest that is, but i'm just trying to understand why IT isn't so. And when I say why IT isn't, I mean this idea that somehow the united can play constructive role IT with lebanon.

Where's IT couldn't play that constructive role in the case of syria and iraq. And I think one key difference to highlight is that in those two cases, the united states was engaging in regime change, wherein lebanon on the idea would be to strengthen the confessional government that already exists in lebanon on that has, albeit a very imperfect distribution or allocation of representation along sectarian lines, at least as IT was before the nineteen and eighty two invasion ed by israel and the subsequent civil war. So those do seem to be fundamentally different cases.

But what would make IT difficult for the U. S. To play the role of helping lebanon's actual government to restrain then and to reclaim soren tty over its boundaries. In your view, like what where are the things that they make that very difficult?

Well, lebanon on's demographic problem is that it's divided to thirds. A third of the population are Christian, roughly a third cdd arb, and the third shi arab. And the shy live in the south, and by a large, they support hezbollah political party 阿满 了。 And the head of ammon navidad is speaker of the parliament.

So parliament can't meet unless he calls IT to meet. Lebanon is not had a president who has to be a marini Christian for two years. There is a caretaker governments in place, but IT hasn't been able to agree on the next president because there is such deep differences between these three different groups.

Now also at play is who has more influence in eleven on syria, iran or amErica and israel. Now, american israel are trying to, in a sense, pull lebanon away from iran and syria and bring IT into the orbit of the united states in israel. In order to do that, they need to destroy hezbollah.

d. The lebanese army, with an agreement between the Christians and the sydney. But of course you need constitutionally, you need the shiites to agree.

And just killing hezbollah, straying all of their facilities isn't going to make them more amenable because you can't kill them all. Let's the problem an in syria are not gona give up their influence. What you really need, of course, is to solve the palestinian problem, have a ceasefire and goes so that hezbollah attack israel.

This would be to have a regional agreement that would define his mother, then his father and the shiites and the Christians in the sydney would be able to move forward in some kind of a constitutional arrangement. What the amErica and israel are trying to do is to use military power in order to short circuit this dialogue, destroy his father, any running influence. And we make the middle ast.

And I just don't believe that they can do IT and they won't do IT in part because the sunni arabs are divided over the paladin issue. They don't like hezbollah. The same time, they don't want to be on the side of israel to destroy their own fellow levis.

And that's what amErica and israel are asking them to do. There's thinking, let's divide lebanon and maybe we can capture two thirds and our favor against the one third. And that's just not gonna work constitutional because you need each third to be, you know, pulling the year in the same direction.

And iran and syria are gonna get in there just that way they did after one thousand nine hundred eighty two. And they are gonna try to scuttles this effort to pull lebanon away from their orbit into the american israeli orbit. And as long as there is not a resolution to the palestinian conflict is very hard to see eleven on is trapped in the middle of this regional geopolitical tug of war, and using military force to try to kill the team on one side of that rope isn't gonna work.

IT didn't work in eighty two america. Try to do IT again. IT with George bush after nine eleven, when amErica invaded y rock.

And IT tried to pull her rich away from the syrian orbit and on in orbit. And what happened? Harry was assassinated, we believe, by hisself people.

And this whole effort collapsed. And lebanon went back into the orbit of, I ran in syria. So yes, you know, perhaps israel can bomb, I run and kill a lot of its leadership, but it's not gonna destroy iran.

And iran is still going to fight with syria, not to allow israel to remake the midwest in america, remake the middle eleven on his trap. It's very weak. It's poor.

It's divided. Its politicians are corrupt. He is going be very difficult for the united states to solve this problem, which IT hasn't sold. This tried twice before, in eighty two and with a very moment, and it's failed both times. And why this time it's going to work, I just don't see why it's going to work.

When was her very two thousand .

and nine or two thousand and and eight hurry was assassinated in two thousand and four five their time delays od the syrian american told syrian not to extend the presidency beyond one presidency of of lahoma seria defied the united states and extended his presidency. Then the united states in the west encouraged her ri, to then go against syria. And he's bola because american occupy rock we were say we're gona rebuild the middle east.

This is the moment. And hurry was forced to decide. He went with amErica and he was assassinated, and in a whole sydney arab effort collapsed. And then in the arb spring, two thousand and eleven, amErica tried to decide with the syrian rebels and overthrow outside.

This spoke the Christians and the Christians, many of the lebanese Christians, in a sense, to decided with his bower, because he's bola, and the Christians feared, and islam take over a syria that that rebels would be run by people like your kite or ISIS, and that they take over, and then they would come over and take over, left on and kill the sh Christians. So the Christians freaked out, and many of them backed hezbollah, fighting the syrian opposition and joined behind bars arosa. Now they did.

They hate, but most dislike bIshara intensely. They dislike his ballot, but IT shows you have the lebanese code scope and the interest of the Christians, sydney arabs and SHE etes can switch in different combinations pretty quickly. And americans counting on being able to really turn those tables and get the tunis and the Christians to work together against the sides. But as long as lebanese are not CoOperating together, all three groups, you really can't make lebanon on work unless it's through a military solution of cow or something like that. But you know, the whole point is that level on should have a constitutional a agreement between these three different groups.

which they did, but IT create a lot of problems. I think as soon what more power within the political structure related the sha as part of a muslim minority within the confessional government. I can't quite remember .

in the forty three, the national packed france was the colonial power. IT was charge of the Mandate from the league nations, and IT ruled eleven on, and IT helped the Christians get the lion share of power. So in one thousand nine and forty three, the national pact was predicate on six Christian deputies to five muslim deputies in parliament. Now there was one hundred seats, roughly, but IT was a Christian majority. The president, which was strong, originally was got to a marini Christian.

And there were how many marini Christians living in at the .

time in lebanon, in the last census ever taken. Lebanon is one hundred thirty two under the french Mandate, where there was a slight majority of Christians over muslims. There has never been another census, because the muslim have become the majority, and the Christians are perhaps only a third of the population.

Now, in one thousand nine hundred ninety, after the long levene civil war, that broke out seventy five over this question of representation and who's going to have a line and share power, and the muslims demanded one person, one vote. We want to have the lion share of power because they were the majority population and they were a majority population in part because two hundred thousand palestinian were driven til lebanon in one hundred and forty eight, when is real, conquered palestine and drove the palestinians out. Eight hundred thousand thousand and almost two hundred thousand went to live in on.

Almost all of them are sydney muslim, sydney herbs. And this change, the demographic bounce and the military bounce inside them. And on leading to the civil war. And seventy two, seventy five, excuse me.

And then in one thousand nine hundred and ninety, you have the type, of course, in order to bring into the civil war, all the living deputies, about seventy, were flown to type in SATA, abia. And the saudi americans, with the israel, okay, SAT down to rebuild a consensus. And they came up with a fifty, fifty power sharing another words, fifty percent of the deputy would be Christian, fifty percent would be muslim, including the drews.

And that means shiites got about twenty two percent of the seats, and sydney arabs twenty two percent, where the Christians were getting fifty percent. So IT still isn't equal. But in order to make up for that, the main power was shifted from the president, which was mary night, to the prime minister, who was a sydney.

So the prime minister is really the power in this trocha of Christian president, sydney, prime minister SHE ites, speaker of the house, the speaker of the parliament. And so they each have their power, but the sydney's were are supposed to have more power, which was gonna baLance IT out. But the trouble was that in thousand nine hundred and ninety, syria was a really a power in lebanon and syria, a loud the shades hizbul to keep their arms and to be a militia.

All the other militia's were disarmed. And that has set the stage for what we see today, because his bulla is the is muscle bound and IT has its guns and IT has its missiles launched that israel, and it's saying it's allied with the palestinians and is part of this access of resistance that iran is, you know, running and a leg was syrian, iran. And so that's what amErica and israel are trying to defeat.

And they're trying to put a good face on IT by saying we're gonna remake a Better left on. But it's hard to believe that they can do that they can destroy a lot of stuff and hurt hezbollah ady. But he run.

And syria will be able to rebuild IT in the future. I mean, what's the only thing that will stop them from rebuilding IT is if the united states can build up the lebanese army, get the Christians in sydney to agree, and ultimately convinced the shiites to abandoned hizbul. But how how do you do that? It's very difficult in a world is very sick italian, to rearrange everything on the battle field like that.

So all of that is something I think we can talk about in the second hour because that's where I want to discuss the Abraham icds and other having used a regional CoOperation and collaboration that might lead the middle ast away from some of the darker areas that many historians and experts on the region like you believe are likely. I had a bunch of questions I was gonna about.

I'm just gonna get about them for now because we have a limit at a time. And I want to focus on areas that are most relevant. Let's shift to israel palestine.

Before I ask you about the situation, gaza, just on a high level, i'm curious, do you think that there are problems for which there are no solutions? Or at the very least, there might be theoretical solutions, but in practice, they're basically aren't and that the only solution comes with time. And in the meanwhile, you just have to make do with the status. Cw, is that your view of the situation that israel finds itself and not just with the palestinians, but in its larger regional setting?

I do I do you know the train that's running down the track is out of control is a palestinian issue. There are seven million palestinians in a historic palestinian, and five million of those live under military occupation. Five points, something million palestinians live under military occupation, the west bank.

And in gaza, they have no rights. You know, many people call IT at a part type regime. And the point is that the poll sons have few rights.

They don't control their water, their ground, their air, their land. They can build houses. There is great inequality. And this has caused constant uprisings, whether it's the eighty fight and one thousand nine hundred eighty seven, the second tifto in two thousand, the outbreaks, and gaza, which have been repeated.

And the last one is the october seventh, is only the most dramatic, but it's been boiling because of palestinians have self determination. And today, you know, the obvious solution to that was a two state solution in which israel would give up the occupied territories that means the west bank, east islam and gaza to a palestinian authority. And that would become a national authority and have its own independence.

That never happened. That was the promise of oslo accords in nineteen ninety three. But IT was an unfulfilled promise. Israel did not move out.

Instead, israel has moved seven hundred thousand and israeli settings into those occupied territories. And that's the unresolved problem that you just spoke about. How do you solve this palestinian the issue?

So just to clarify this point, when I described the problem, I don't just mean that there is a long standing grievances on the part of the palestinians that's been aggravated over the course of many generations, not just because of the exit is resulting from the partition of palestine in the nineteen forty eight arab israeli war, but in all the subsequent complexing bloodshed, including the most recent one in gaza, that's the palace ini side. The problem. Then there's the israeli perspective.

Putting aside the fact that alternative factions LED by folks like that on yahoo, have done things to actively undermine the peace process and the hopes for a palatines, an state on the part of some israelis by supporting organizations, I can mass, there is a legitimate cern on the part of israeli about what that would mean to create a palestinian state, and whether they can actually trust the palestinian leadership to provide a security guaranteed to israel that factions within their own nation won't use that state to launch future terror tacks at israel. So what i'm basically trying to highlight and clarify is that this is one of those wicked problems where IT isn't just the israeli, is not being able to give the palestinians a state because they just want the territory for themselves, but that there are legitimate concerns that doing so would be bad for israel's long term security. Even though the origins of the conflict stem from israel's occupation of poetry ini land. And so I just wanted to highlight, this is really the problem I was trying to address.

right? Well, that is the israeli argument. And you know, we can't trust the arabs because there's mom's like october seventh and their groups like homos, which are determined to turn the tables on israel and are looking for a future.

But and that's true, there is this insecurity because there are groups like hezbollah as iran and ultimately iran, and the net ani ahoo is constantly hammering with iran, iran, iran. We have to have regime change iran, because until we do that, there's gonna be this model and malignant forces. And yet solving the palestinian .

conflict could in fact result in, uh, regime change in iran. That doesn't require the force of the israeli, the american.

So but let's let's avoid the regime change in IT wrong, because that's just opens whole kind of words. The point is that that I would make here is that iran would have no purchase and hamas would have no purchase or little purchase over the palestinians. Were there an alternative? And we saw one hundred and ninety two, three with the oslo accords and the meetings and midrib.

And so far there was a great excitement that there could be a two state solution and that they were gonna a move towards, yet through negotiations, diplomacy, the P, L, O, for swore military force said, we recognize israel and let's negotiate and they set up in the west bank and have been a partner to israeli. The travel is they couldn't deliver a state and this grave great credibility to hamas, which was constantly saying, juice or evil, you can't negotiate with them. AmErica and israel are gonna constantly undermine us.

And the P. L. O has just been duped. Cause today IT looks like IT hasn't duck. And this has caused many palestinians were very favor of the two state solution to abandoned IT and to now call for one state solution or support hums and iran.

Iran would, you know, forget iran's revolutionary ideology and anti as real ideology, which is exploiting for various regional and geostrategic reasons. Iran would not be a major force in the region where there are some reasonable solution to the arising eli conflict because the palestinians wouldn't move towards, you know, wooden side where they iran. It's not natural for the sydney air palestinians to be aligned with the iran or the shiite lebanese.

They do IT because they believe that a negotiated solution is not at hand. And you know the second question then is, what's the proof that arabs can be trusted? Because that I was argument is that arabs can be trusted, their savage.

When he came to U. S. Congress and got fifty five standing invasions, he hammered away at the argument that this is not a class of civilizations.

He said this is a clash between civilization and barbarism. He painted the arabs as savages and that you can't negotiate with them. And that's the argument of his government.

And that's an argument that gain more resonance or it's resonated with a larger the number of israeli since the second into faa is in the where the whole of society has moved more towards net anna ho's position then IT wasn't the .

ninety nineties that is true. And amErica has you know, amErica at each step of the way has refused to put pressure on israel whether IT was to stop settlement process after sixty seven and war, when I was to change, to really move forward the land for peace, to to for the U. N.

Resolution that was passed up to the sixty seven war when israel conquered so much eric territory. The united states, at each step, refused to pressure israel into giving up that land and negotiating seriously. Israel learned at each step of the way that there was a military solution that he could just take that land and absorbed into israel.

Now this, of course, kept the arabs radicalized and didn't d radicalize them. The proof the arabs can be d radicalized and accept a negotiated solution is one egypt did IT one thousand nine hundred and seventy nine with a camp David courts to dot make peace with. I got to sign his land back egypt and back, and each has been a peace and a partner with israel ever since seventy nine.

Jordan made peace, resolve this land disputes and has been at peace even though sixty percent of the Jordan, an population, is palestinian. And as dead said, he feels their hearts are bleeding for their brothers in in gaza and west bank. They have remained loyal to their government, and they have been at peace with its real take, the two million palestinians that live inside israel and that gained israeli citizenship, but are still second class citizens inside israel, because they're not jews.

There are peace they haven't been Carrying out terrorist actions against the jewish state, even though they are very distressed at what's happening in gaza, just you know, fraught with internal divisions about their relationship to the chewers state. They remain loyal to. The point that i'm trying to make here is that peace and compromise is a possibility.

Babbs are not fanatical because of their DNA, because of their lack of civilization. They're radical because there isn't a way forward like a two state solution. It's been for closed.

Syria is radical because israel has ane's the goal on heights, a big hunk of syrian territory. And this is what's radicalizing now. Iran is got its own issues, but iran can exploit that.

This satisfaction, if there wasn't this, says faction to exploit, nobody would care about. You run in the same way that people like kadosh H I tried to fund black americans during the ninety seventies and eighties nation of his mom. Fair han, for example, would go to libya and get money from libya.

But he could do that. He could get away with that only because black americans felt very badly discriminated against the united states as soon as there is civil rights movement, as you move forward, as black sea, that there is an option inside amErica that isn't based on conflict. They didn't want to go with kadosh I.

They haven't been turned against the american government, either bike soviet russia during the cold war, or by libya, or by any other squiring power that's trying to radicalize them because he has been away forward towards equality within america. IT hasn't been quick. IT hasn't been easy.

But if there has been away forward, and that's the argument, the liberal argument, for a peace solution rather than using brute force. And israel's effort to solve land problems by using brute force has only exacerbated its own situation with its neighbors. It's undermined american foreign policy in the region. It's our our attempts to bring peace between the golfer's and israel, and is undermined our position in the international community of upholding international law because we haven't a IT international law when IT comes to is real. So, you know, that would be the argument, the liberal argument OK.

So before I have my next question, I just want to clarify two points earlier when I said that a solution of the palestinian is really conflict is more likely to affect regime change in tehran, what I met was exactly what you said, which is that the motor of vi of the iran in regime is in part animated by external al enemies in the narrative of death to israel and israel's occupation of palestinian territory. So solving that problem makes IT more difficult for the iranian regime to focus its energies at words as a distraction for its failures internally in runs.

big argument is that the poets ines are oppressed, right? They say that was humanise big argument for overthrowing the shot, the shot suppressing muslims, and he's suppressing the average iranian. He's a dictator, ba ba ba.

Now, of course, the regime of the mois is oppressive in its own right, but IT IT maintains this argument that is on the side of the oppressed. The palestine ans are oppressed were on the side of the palestinians. Zinn's m is in currently racist because it's for the jews over the arabs. There's not equality in .

israel is so much in iran.

right? Well, that's the argument, right? It's an argument that gains purchase with the palestinians because they feel oppressed.

And if you can take a way that oppression, everybody will look at iran as being a hypocritical nation that's just blow and hot air. But they aren't looking at IT that way. Many middle estenega's look at at that way because there is oppression of the palestinians. So, you know, that would be the way to the nature iran, and to have to lose its purchase over this era. populations.

Yeah, no, that's a great point. The second thing that I wanted to address with you has to do with the argument that arabs cannot live in peace. Your counter examples of palestinians making up a majority of people in Jordan or who peacefully coexist with the israel are good ones, but they don't get to the question of whether or not that majority is able to restrain the remaining revisions.

Al elements within palestinian society that are interested in continuing the fight. This goes back to my earlier point about whether or not a alston ian state has the political consensus to manage its international security and provide security guarantees to israeli state, which is something that. The lebanon ese government has struggled to do granted lebanon on main represent an even more difficult chAllenge in that regard because of the different sex that make IT up.

So again, this brings us back to this being a wicked problem. And I just want to reemphasize that i'm gonna hold off my question on what's going on a gaza because a lot of people can read about IT, but it's a massacre. What's gone on over there? We can talk about whether or not it's a genocide or whether a qualifies as ethic.

Clancy, I think one could make the argument that the end game for non yahoo government and those who support him is to excell the remaining palestinians from gaza by whatever means necessary. And i'm basing this not just on their actions, but also on the statements being made by ministers within the house on government. Before we explore that line of reasoning, i'm curious to ask you if you feel like most americans who are, say, in their forties or fifties older, have a view of israel that is informed by or stuck in the period of the oslo w cords and the efforts to establish a palestinian state. And if that's true, if that's the framing that many americans have, how out of date is that with the present state of israeli politics and is really attitudes towards the prospects of a palestinian state?

Yes, I think americans are very at heart or very Price real. You know, every american has jewish friends and nose jews and jews have been extraordinary ily successful american. They've been the most successful americans.

They have the highest per capital income. You know, they're the best educated. Ninety two percent of americans choose go to four year universities.

One third of the top fortune one hundred companies are the chief Operating officer. Is, are jewish? You choose just been extraordinary arly successful americans and americans like that. So yes, amErica is very pride.

And of course, there's all the whole religious reasons for being pro jewish is that the Joseph chosen people, according to american religious thinking and muslim, are not, you know, muhamad. From a Christian point of view, mohamad is just A A faker. And the koran is not descended from heaven.

Where's the old testiment is, and the new testiment is. And so there is a brotherhood, a natural brother hood, whether is religiously, whether it's socially, politically, between Christians and jews and a most americans, in this way that muslims just can't today, even though there is a growing muslim community in the united states. But we see in this election muslim americans just they don't have any purchase.

If you look at the billion year donors to both parties, which are all declared red, over half our jewish donors, there are no arab donors in the top twenty five donors to political parties in the two thousand twenty two cycle or in the present cycle, erp just don't show up as big money givers to either political party. So amErica is connected at the hip with israel. And that that explains a lot of why amErica has cited with israel each of the wars has not held its feet to fire on these negotiations in international law, and is allowed israeli to expand its territory over east, just in the west bank, go on and so forth.

And now in the lebanon, anozzer and israel has grown used to this, and IT has realized that I can use increasing levels of military might and has been extraordinary ily successful instead of compromising. And that leads to a situation which is very hard to reverse today, because there is so many settings. This is not gonna pull out of the west bank and IT gets amErica clock in a struggle which is only in the middle, the road, and america's firmly on the side of israel and the struggle is gonna remain that way, I think. And that brings us back to you're earlier question of you know how we're stuck in this hurdling train that's hitting a stone wall and how do you overcome the palestinian sue? Are resolved, and I don't see a good resolution.

So I want to remain here a little bit before we switch the second hour, Joshua, because I think this is where a conversation about israel palestine often goes off the rails. And so far, that loses one sider or the other, because of how much emotion is understandably wrapped up in this issue.

Before I continue, I want to mention a great conversation I had with walter Russell need, not long after october s, which speaks to something we were talking about earlier, where we discussed the closer lies between the evAngelical, the other states and designs and israel. You mentioned the power of the jewish aspire as a greek citizen unfamiliar with the important role that the greek, the aspire, played in greece national project that LED to the founding of the hell ic republic, following the greek world of independence. These are historical facts that are part of the story of how the former automatically controlled lands were carved up and turned into nation states, many of which internalized sectarian come flicks that have to this day remained unresolved.

And the creation of israel falls within this category. So my point is also that you don't just get to have a nation state, you have to earn IT, you have to be able to fight for IT, and you have to be able to build a political consensus to rule over IT and show that you have the leadership ability to do that. And the israelis have been able to do that.

And while the palestinians also shown a willings to fight, they have been less effective and successful on the political side and in finding the right people to lead them toward a shared positive vision of a palestinian future and one that can co exist, a longside israel. And so that again brings us back to the wicked problem that exists between these rates in the palestinians that I mentioned earlier. So one more question for you, jojo, before we switch the second hour.

And that has to do with the observation about americans being stuck in the period of the oslo cords and how israeli society has moved much more to the right since then. I too, I must admit, was someone that didn't realize just how far right israeli society has moved in the intervening decades and was shocked to learn that net yahoo has people in his administration, in his government, like minister of national security is am a bevier who used to have a picture but gold thing hanging in his family living room. And for those who don't know, gold, seen as a jewish terrorist who opened fire on hundreds of palestinian muslim worshipers during the month of rama don, killing twenty nine of them.

And the finance minister bets a little small thic was arrested nearly, I think, twenty years ago on suspicion, applying to blow up one of visuals, major highways, and was found with something like seven hundred leaders of gasoline. Do you think that people understand just how significant the shift in israel politics has been? Because for me, as someone who is not an expert, the region, but has folded over the decades, this seems like a pretty radical change in leadership.

IT is a radical change, and the government of neti ahoo today in this coalition with all the right wing parties is dedicated. Their first plank is that there should be no palestinian ate, and that to day and samari the the west bank should be annexed to israel, and that their goal, that means moving more settings, building more settings. The palestinians are not indigenous people.

They are on jewish land. And that this week there was a big conference on settlement in gaza in which, post more to and then of year, spoke at great length to the settler movement, saying, we have to settled gaza and we have to get rid of the palestinians, and israel will never be secure until gaza is completely jewry ish. And the palin population has been driven out.

So that isn't just an extremist wing of the israeli government that become the sort of central effort on the part of this government. And neti a backs IT. Now he says he's not in favor of getting rid of the palestinians.

After october seventh, he went to egypt. He went to united states. He Carried his message around to the various neighbor nations, saying, would you take the gaza? s.

He tried to negotiate a gazan exodus so the palestine could be gotten rid of from gaza and replaced with israelis. So they're in the same page more or less net. And yahoo has spent a lifetime dedicated to defeating both the oslo accords as well as any effort to create a palace in state inside historic palestine.

So he's not that different from these radical and that his life's mission, and he's over seventy now this is his closing chapter, and he is doing everything he can to make sure that he can defeat the creation of a palestinian state, keep the palestinian divider. And that's why the big effort to hit lebanon, and he hit iran, because he sees those as the keys to any potential western effort to decide with the palestinians. Because if you can then naturally run in his sofa, then the palestine, really the cake.

They won't have anybody to stand up for them in the international arena. And that's not going on in israel. And the united states is backing this effort because our system is at a very weak moment in the election cycle where both candidates are competing against each other to be more promise rarely than the other.

And so nathian, who understands this and he's done and and run an american politics, he's got congress very much for israel and he's got both candidates in particularly president trump, who constantly is complaining that Harris is too anti israel, is trying to restrain at at o and SHE shouldn't be restraining and SHE should be citing with them ever more strongly that he would do that. So that's the logic in american politics and its empowering. nein. Yahoo, to continue on this train is convincing many israelis, you know, he can get away with the bridge force, can solve this problem.

So we're going to a chance to talk more about about Anthony ahoo in the second hour because he isn't just being driven by his own ideological belief that his health, most of his career, there is also political calculus that requires them to maintain the the support of his coalition, which includes far right members in order to avoid early elections because also there are he has his own legal issues that he was battling before october that may be have a chance talk about that is well, in the second hour, just want to tell people where where we're going to take this conversation.

I do want to continue with some specific cases, like for example, the record cases of set their violence in the west banks since october seventh because I think that's also important, understand, because this is such a complicated picture, and one can acknowledge the legitimate chAllenges that the real external threats that israel society faces as well as the actions that elements in groups within israel take that undermine their security, or one could argue that undermine the security. And in point, in fact, the case of of seller violence is one of those, because I think IT was roone and bar the head of visuals general security service that actually. Criticize this specific situation in the west bank because he felt that IT was undermining israel security.

His, of course, I odds with some of the people on israel, right? The same goes for the head of the D. F. With respect of the filled, dealt cord and at which was supposed to be part of the negotiation for a ceasefire.

And that also has credit swizzle between the defense establishment, which also, by the way, seems a little bit IT reminds me a bit of the break between the commonalities and the eddying ists in turkey. And maybe those are parallels that we can draw the second hour. And then I want to talk about what I would take to reach a political settlement in the context of the braham acts and then the Abraham acts, in the context of america's larger desire for a geostrategic pivot to asia.

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