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cover of episode Where We Are in the AI Cycle

Where We Are in the AI Cycle

2025/6/27
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People
A
Anish Acharya
E
Erik Torenberg
S
Steven Sinofsky
Topics
Steven Sinofsky: 我认为目前人工智能正处于早期阶段，类似于64K IBM PC时代，人们仍在努力弄清楚如何让它真正发挥作用。虽然人工智能被寄予厚望，例如取代搜索和Excel，但它在基本功能上仍存在缺陷，例如不擅长加法，并且容易出错。这表明我们还有很长的路要走，需要解决许多技术挑战，才能真正实现人工智能的潜力。目前我们正处于一个技术积累和探索的阶段，需要不断尝试和改进，才能找到正确的方向。 Anish Acharya: 我认为工具是当前阶段的核心，我们正处于平台发展的早期阶段，工具的开发和应用至关重要。现在很多人都在谈论氛围编码，这当然是因为Karpathy率先提出了这个概念。我认为编码是平台早期最有效的领域，因为平台的所有客户都是开发者，他们会努力让工具发挥作用。但我认为近期被低估的是氛围写作，它已经非常普及，大学生都在使用，而企业仍在犹豫是否可以使用。这就像计算器的出现一样，人们会逐渐适应并提升自己的能力。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the current state of AI development. Drawing parallels to the early days of personal computing, it discusses the challenges faced by developers and the gap between consumer adoption and developer readiness. The concept of "vibe writing" is introduced as a significant aspect of this new computing paradigm.
  • Comparison of the current AI development stage to the Windows 3.1 and 64K IBM PC eras.
  • Emphasis on the early stage of AI development, with developers still grappling with basic functionalities.
  • Introduction of the concept of "vibe writing" and its potential impact on the future of AI.

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of ‘This Week in Consumer’, a16z General Partners Anish Acharya and Erik Torenberg are joined by Steven Sinofsky - Board Partner at a16z and former President of Microsoft’s Windows division - for a deep dive on how today’s AI moment mirrors (and diverges from) past computing transitions.

They explore whether we’re at the “Windows 3.1” stage of AI or still in the earliest innings, why consumer adoption is outpacing developer readiness, and how frameworks like partial autonomy, jagged intelligence, and “vibe coding” are shaping what gets built next. They also dig into where the real bottlenecks lie, not in the tech, but in how companies, products, and people work.

 

Resources: 

Find Anish on X: https://x.com/illscience)

Find Steven on X: https://x.com/stevesi)

Watch Andrej Karpathy’s talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCEmiRjPEtQ)

 

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.