Chapter 1: Where Are We Now? A Brief History of Uncertainty
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Chapter 1: Where Are We Now? A Brief History of Uncertainty
Overview
“Knowledge would be fatal. It is the uncertainty that charms one. A mist makes things wonderful.”
—Oscar Wilde, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Think about the things in life of which you’re certain. It could be things that you know about yourself: your name, your hair color, your address. There are also things that you likely know about your immediate physical environment: what the building next door looks like, what color the tree outside your window is today, or the name of your nearest supermarket. Without wading into an epistemological quagmire of how exactly we qualify these “knowns,” they are, well, known.
You might also be fairly certain what the weather will be tomorrow, or what the inflation rate will be for the next three months. But how certain can you be about those beliefs? What if I asked you how certain you feel about the inflation rate in 12 months’ time? Or the temperature seven years from now? You might be able to give me a plausible range, but could you give me the exact temperature of a specific location down to the tenth decimal digit?
Humanity has long fought a war against uncertainty. The powers of logic, science, and reason have enabled humans to create tools, methods, and, more recently, algorithms that can help us predict the future and control uncertainty. The hope, of course, is that in mitigating the unknown, we can improve our lives.
