Chapter 2: Truth, Logic, and the Problem of Induction

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Chapter 2: Truth, Logic, and the Problem of Induction

Overview

“If it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.”

―Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking-Glass

Imagine life in an ancient world. You are a hunter-gatherer. Sometimes your food consists of an animal you managed to hunt and kill, but other times it might be foraged fruits, nuts, and vegetables. Every day might bring forth a new plant, or a new mineral for you to eat. But how do you know what will provide sustenance, and what might poison and kill you and your tribe?

Well, the most basic thing you could do would be to simply find out which foods work best through trial-and-error. You simply eat whatever looks fine to you, and, if you survive, you can assume that the food is probably safe to eat. But can you be certain that this food will always be safe to eat, under all circumstances? What about foods that look similar to this one?

You are facing a situation of extreme uncertainty, which you need to handle—your life literally depends on it. Although you might not be conscious of it, you will go through a two-step thought process. The way you handle this situation is through the following process:

First, experimentation: You try it, see what happens, and hopefully don’t die.

Second—all being well—you come up with some conclusions (and therefore theories) based on what you experienced.

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Chapter 2: Truth, Logic, and the Problem of Induction