Not All Uncertainty Is Created Equal

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Not All Uncertainty Is Created Equal

A good way to start talking about uncertainty is to address the heterogeneous kinds of uncertainty. The first thing we must understand is that uncertainty can come in different shapes and sizes. For example:

We face uncertainty about the future. For example, what will the weather be like tomorrow? Will the economy be in good shape in two years?

We face uncertainty about right now. For example, the Secret Service might be wondering whether there is someone right now planning an attack.

We face uncertainty about the past. Think about all the historical events for which we have no clear idea why or what really happened. What about the Kennedy assassination? Or history before the written word?

We face uncertainty about measurements and data collection. How can we be 100 percent certain that, when we measure a specific quantity, our measurement is correct? Sometimes instruments can be faulty. Maybe a blood sample is corrupted. Maybe we conducted a poll, and the data collection process was biased.

We face uncertainty around cause and effect. How can we know that a medicine is really effective? How can an intervention in an economy change the inflation rate? How do we know that a policy is effective?

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Not All Uncertainty Is Created Equal