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cover of episode Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's iOS Flop, TikTok Ban, State of VC with Keith Rabois

Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's iOS Flop, TikTok Ban, State of VC with Keith Rabois

2024/12/13
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All-In Podcast

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People
C
Chamath Palihapitiya
以深刻的投资见解和社会资本主义理念而闻名的风险投资家和企业家。
J
J. Calacanis
K
Keith Rabois
知名风投家和早期投资者,支持特朗普的政治立场和对顶级人才的识别能力。
Topics
Keith Rabois: 我认为创始人的模式是有效的,它与谷歌等大型公司的管理模式不同。我从创始人基金到科斯拉风险投资公司,再回到创始人基金,是因为职业生涯规划和个人偏好。我更喜欢在早期阶段投资,因为那时竞争较少,主要关注创始人评估。我目前专注于风险投资事业,未来可能会考虑参与政治。我丈夫Jacob Helberg将担任政府的首席经济官员,负责从商业角度构建外交政策。特朗普政府团队成员观点多样化,这使得决策过程更复杂,但也更全面。我认为特朗普的决策方式是广泛征求意见,然后做出决定。我认为公司应该尽早上市,这有利于提高公司责任感和透明度。Stripe公司不急于上市,可能是因为他们正在构建替代方案,以应对上市带来的挑战。我认为TikTok对美国国家安全构成威胁,因为它可能被用于收集美国用户数据并进行内容操纵。TikTok可能存在类似Pegasus间谍软件的后门程序,这进一步加剧了其对国家安全的威胁。风险投资交易活动正在恢复到疫情前的水平,但退出活动仍未跟上。人工智能领域的风险投资市场依然火热,而其他领域的市场则相对较冷。加密货币的主要用途仍然是投机,但未来可能会有更多基于加密货币的实用型应用出现。我认为特朗普政府对经济政策有清晰的理解,他们能够在提高关税的同时控制通货膨胀。 Chamath Palihapitiya: 特朗普政府中有很多成功的商人,这与以往政府形成对比,我认为这会带来更好的经济管理结果。美国经济过于复杂,需要有实际经验的商人来管理,而不是理论家。政府官员缺乏实际经验,导致他们对商业问题的理解落后于时代。美国政府不应该继续为错误的政策买单,应该让有实际经验的商人参与政府决策。行业经验有时会阻碍创始人对新技术的判断。特朗普能够连任总统,是因为他不断质疑现状,并寻求改进。谷歌的新量子芯片Willow实现了计算能力的重大突破,这预示着量子计算时代的到来。我目前的iOS 18系统存在很多问题,这反映了苹果公司在软件质量控制方面存在不足。关税可以作为一种手段,来促进美国国内产业的发展,但需要仔细研究其影响。 J. Calacanis: 谷歌的Willow芯片是量子计算领域的一个重要里程碑,它标志着量子计算技术取得了重大进展。量子计算技术可能对现代加密技术构成威胁,需要开发后量子加密技术来应对。目前IPO和并购活动受阻的主要原因是投资者对估值的预期过高。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Keith Rabois leave Founders Fund to join Khosla Ventures?

Keith Rabois left Founders Fund due to his dislike for commuting to Sand Hill Road daily. He believed the future of investing was more in San Francisco than Palo Alto, and Founders Fund's inflexibility on remote work during the pre-COVID era made the decision easier.

What are the key differences between Founders Fund and Khosla Ventures?

Founders Fund is a momentum investor, focusing on later-stage companies with high valuations, while Khosla Ventures is more input-driven, investing early in seed or series A rounds. Founders Fund emphasizes letting founders lead without interference, whereas Khosla Ventures is more proactive in helping companies.

What is Google's new quantum chip, Willow, capable of?

Google's Willow chip performed a benchmark computation in under five minutes that would have taken today's fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years. It uses logical qubits to reduce error rates, a significant milestone in quantum computing.

How could Google's quantum computing advancements impact encryption?

Google's quantum computing advancements could potentially break modern encryption standards like RSA and SHA-256, which are foundational to internet security and Bitcoin. Shor's algorithm, a quantum algorithm, can factor large numbers almost instantly, posing a threat to current encryption methods.

Why is Apple developing its own AI server chips?

Apple is developing AI server chips to enhance privacy and AI capabilities on local devices, ensuring that AI experiences are compelling without compromising user data. The chips, codenamed Baltra, are expected to be in mass production by 2026.

What are the current issues with Apple's iOS 18?

Users are reporting significant issues with iOS 18, including frequent crashes, non-functional apps like Photos, and overall decreased usability. The operating system appears to be less polished and more prone to errors compared to previous versions.

Why is TikTok considered a national security threat in the U.S.?

TikTok is seen as a national security threat because it allows Chinese nationals to access American user data, violates U.S. privacy laws, and is subject to Chinese laws requiring data sharing with the CCP. Additionally, there are concerns about content manipulation and unfair competition with U.S. tech companies.

What is the current state of venture capital deal activity?

Venture capital deal activity is returning to pre-COVID levels, with the number of deals and amount invested stabilizing. However, exits are lagging, and there is a focus on AI and crypto companies, which are seeing increased funding and founder optimism.

Why does Keith Rabois believe companies should go public early?

Keith Rabois advocates for early public listings because it provides accountability, transparency, and discipline. Public companies also gain access to capital for strategic acquisitions, which can be crucial for growth and competitive advantage.

What are the potential impacts of tariffs on inflation and the U.S. economy?

Tariffs could help reduce inflation by encouraging domestic production and reducing reliance on foreign goods. However, the effectiveness depends on how tariffs are implemented and their impact on specific industries. The Trump administration believes tariffs can be imposed without causing inflation, leveraging economic substitution.

Chapters
Keith Rabois discusses his career path, explaining his transition from Founders Fund to Khosla Ventures and back again. He highlights the differing investment styles of the two firms and his preference for early-stage investments. The discussion also touches upon his role as a helpful and supportive VC.
  • Transition from Founders Fund to Khosla Ventures and back
  • Differing investment styles of Founders Fund and Khosla Ventures
  • Preference for early-stage investments
  • Role as a supportive VC

Shownotes Transcript

(0:00) The Besties welcome Keith Rabois! (4:01) Keith explains why he returned to Khosla Ventures, the differences between Founders Fund and Khosla, and his husband Jacob Helberg's role in Trump Admin (13:09) Business acumen of Trump's cabinet and appointees, diversity of opinion (25:59) Google's new quantum chip: potential impact on encryption, cryptography, and more (43:50) Apple developing new server chip for AI inference, iOS flop, why its product culture is failing (54:30) TikTok panics after appeals court upholds the "divest-or-ban" law, with a January 19th deadline (1:03:55) State of Venture Capital, why Stripe is still private, thoughts on crypto

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Referenced in the show: https://www.tiktok.com/@frankielapenna/video/7010077215576575238 https://www.axios.com/2024/12/06/trump-billionaires-cabinet-elon-musk https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08449-y https://research.google/blog/suppressing-quantum-errors-by-scaling-a-surface-code-logical-qubit https://quantumai.google/roadmap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartmut_Neven https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double-slit_experiment https://www.discovery.com/science/Double-Slit-Experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-is-working-on-ai-chip-with-broadcom?rc=pxkrxo https://x.com/rabois/status/870673635375104000 https://www.amazon.com/Company-Giants-Conversations-Visionaries-Digital/dp/0070329656 https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/09/tech/bytedance-tiktok-halt-us-ban-intl/index.html https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-us-ban-sale-china-congress-de12b4d22aa8095e62cb0982a6e62235 https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-congress-bill-1c48466df82f3684bd6eb21e61ebcb8d https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q3-2024-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/servicetitan-starts-trading-on-nasdaq-after-ipo.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/business/dealbook/ftc-trump-ferguson-khan.html https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2021/6/15/antitrust https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-05/convertible-bond-arbs-are-making-microstrategy-wall-street-s-hottest-trade

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