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cover of episode E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!

E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!

2020/11/4
logo of podcast All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
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Bill Gurley
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Brad Gerstner
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Chamath Palihapitiya
以深刻的投资见解和社会资本主义理念而闻名的风险投资家和企业家。
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David Friedberg
美国企业家、商人和天使投资者，创立并领导了The Climate Corporation和The Production Board。
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David Sacks
一位在房地产法和技术政策领域都有影响力的律师和学者。
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Jason Calacanis
一位多才多艺的美国互联网企业家、天使投资人和播客主持人，投资过多家知名初创公司，并主持多个影响广泛的播客节目。
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Joe Biden
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Jon Cohen
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Michael Newman
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Phil Hellmuth
Topics
Jason Calacanis：特朗普的得票数被低估，选举结果可能出人意料。民调机构严重失误，博彩市场和实际结果存在巨大差异。 David Sacks：特朗普有大量狂热支持者，他的个人魅力和对现状的挑战吸引了很多人。 Phil Hellmuth：博彩市场最初看好拜登，但现在突然转向特朗普，赔率变化巨大，这与2016年相似。 Chamath Palihapitiya：民主党低估了不同族裔群体内部观点的多样性，对特朗普的支持率估计不足。 Michael Newman：佛罗里达州特朗普获胜，其他关键州结果仍在统计中，密歇根州的红色可能是因为先统计了当天投票的结果。 Jon Cohen：SurveyMonkey民调显示拜登优势，但没有明显意外。2016年民调失败的主要原因是教育程度调整方法的缺陷。 Brad Gerstner：此次选举结果对民主党来说是一个巨大意外，反映了民主党对普通民众的误判，民众对精英阶层的傲慢态度表示抗议。 Bill Gurley：城乡差距和政治部落化是导致此次选举结果出乎意料的重要因素，特朗普的获胜可能会加剧政治分裂。 Joe Biden：我们有信心赢得此次选举，但需要耐心等待计票结果。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast begins with a live discussion on the early indications of the election results, focusing on the betting markets and initial reactions from the panelists.

Shownotes Transcript

Follow the crew:

https://twitter.com/chamath)

https://linktr.ee/calacanis)

https://twitter.com/DavidSacks)

https://twitter.com/friedberg)

Follow the pod:

https://twitter.com/theallinpod)

https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast)

Follow the bestie guesties:

https://twitter.com/bgurley)

https://twitter.com/phil_hellmuth)

https://twitter.com/altcap)

https://twitter.com/jcpolls)

Show Notes:

0:00 The besties & Phil Hellmuth on Trump’s early lead, live betting odds, the Latinx reversal

10:09 Sacks intros political expert Michael Newman on vote tally timing discrepancies, why some states skew a certain way early & more

20:33 Assessing the 180 in the gambling markets & equity markets towards a pro-Trump outcome

24:18 SurveyMonkey Chief Research Officer Jon Cohen joins the show to talk about polling updates from 2016 to 2020, understanding the race so far, electoral college & more

41:51 Biden losing Florida, tax policy, cultural repudiation of the elites in 2020

50:43 Chamath on the stupidity of the establishment, socialism, Democratic ideology for 2024 if Biden loses

55:40 Mid-show predictions, Jason goes off on Trump

1:07:58 What will happen in the time until we have a clear winner, Trump as a middle finger

1:17:55 Brad Gerstner joins the show to talk about stock futures, what the Democrats keep getting wrong - coastal elites losing touch with normal people, rebuking lockdowns

1:38:24 Reviewing the race swing state by swing state

1:47:28 Bill Gurley joins the show to talk about divisiveness, urban/rural rapture & more

1:55:53 Pete Buttigieg as the future of the Democratic Party, Chamath calls out the democratic leaders

2:00:43 Reconciling middle America & the coastal elites, respecting each other’s differences, understanding Prop 22

2:11:34 Diagnosing states that flipped from Biden to Trump, anti-business California state propositions failing, union impact on legislation

2:23:01 Senate races, market talk, which Democratic candidate had the best chance of beating Trump, voting for character over policy

2:34:32 Jason & Sacks debate Russian election interference legitimacy

2:41:34 Sacks unveils his Trump Derangement Score tracker, updated outcome scenarios & more

2:51:51 Trump declaring victory could tank markets, live reaction to Joe Biden’s election night address