E126: Big Tech blow-out, Powell’s recession warning, lab-grown meat, RFK Jr shakes up race & more
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So let's go to big tech earnings. Google stock is up five percent after beating on the top line. In bottom line estimates, some high level keys. Google announced a seventy billion dollar stock by back plan and that their cloud unit was proffering for the first time minute its history. So we mentioned last week senda officially announced that deep mind was merging with brain.

This is kind of controversial because it's, uh, really hard, according to some sources, person are to get all his lootenants to work together and well in the right direction. Google q on search revenue up year of the year two percent, down five percent. Quality of a quarter is kind of to be expected because of seasonality and because we're in a downmarket right now, obviously, with the recession.

Youtube down two point five percent in year every year, down sixteen percent quality of a quarter. Other bets, which is like nest and some other products, down thirty five percent year over a year. Let income, fifteen billion dollars. And he thoughts freeburg on what is a mixed quarter by google, and I guess the water macro environment.

What was so striking about the earnings call is not necessarily what was presented, but what was not presented, which was a stronger voice in a strategic plan going forward for dealing with two major issues that the company won as the Operating costs model. In the second is the A I strategy and the response to this evolution in A I.

I've heard from a lot of folks that the AI strategy in particular, it's almost like google already has this in the bag, but they just haven't kind of let IT out of the bag. It's like you've got a tasmanian devil and they're ready to go with IT. And there is from from my read, an incredible amount of confidence that there's something that's gonna en.

And inside of things that are gonna en, they're going to be very profound and powerful. I even heard some anecdotal stories about, hey, you know, we don't have this feature in this product, but ChatGPT does. And then people basically showed up to this meeting, and there is all this debate about, well, we can't let IT up because not sure, you know, the classic were scared of doing doing wrong, sus, leaving and taking risk.

don't be evil or referencing, no.

I was just more about regulatory concern and getting things wrong and making a mistake. And so there's this total fear of like, again, you know, regulatory and fear. So someone kind of slam the table and said, let shes put IT out. The next day they put IT out. So there's definitely cultural change happening internally, is what I ve very antic totally.

But what was really missing, which is what wall street needed to hear, what investors and child holders needed to hear, is what's the strategy there? How are you gonna compete? How are you gona resolve what's gonna forward? And secondly, what are you going to do about the cost structure, the company? Because everyone else, you know, we contrast to meter being up eleven, twelve percent after hours with their cost cutting model and demonstrating that they are going to start putting cash out in his business.

Google top you know, kind of top story was, hey, were stop serving piano, m ms. And cafeteria or something ridiculous. And you know that doesn't really address the real structural question.

So I think the stock buyback, the seventy million, million stock by back is an authorization to be purchase. It's not a plan to be purchase. So it's unclear if, when or how that capital does actually get deployed in the market to buy backstop. And so there is also this big kind of shareholder sentiment of being let down that there isn't an improvement in either cash coming out of the business or in cash being used in a smart way with the business. And I was the the silence in the earnings call that I think really stand a lot of people, which is why you didn't see a lot of stock movement despite the actual business numbers being Better than expected.

And so there's a lot that google, I think, still has to catch up to with respect to their peers, both on a product in strategy point of view but also on a cost cutting in a communication of that cost cutting point of view to the market, to the street. Otherwise, shareholder are going to start to fate if they are not already. And we're going to start to put their capital with other folks who they feel are Better leading and leading into this new evolution of technology like microsoft and apple and meta, which is really where those big capital alligators and up picking stuff to go.

A one final thing, i'll say, it's extraordinary important to note that I think google has such an incredible A I vantage of microsoft. And you know microsoft is almost solely dependent on OpenAI the small start of company and all of being chat is powered by IT. And microsoft hasn't built out the the infrastructure, the team, the rigor, the depth, the models that google has.

And google made a few strategic glenda, you know, they shouldn't have been as open with the transformer work that they did and share that publicly, certainly LED OpenAI and to compete. But google certainly has an incredible set of tools and capabilities that is leaper is ahead of microsoft. They're in a position to really compete.

They just have to have the will and the leadership to do IT slam the table, say here's we're going to stop wasting money and we're going to start leading and driving the industry forward. And this this could be a quick turnaround story for this stock and for this company. And and I I I hope you to have a to math.

What are your thoughts on google's leadership specifically as soon are the right person to run the company going forward? Does he have the founder authority to get the ship and to get the lootenants all kind of role in the same direction? That is, they need to be a leadership change, which is the big discussion of topic in silk valena.

I think he's very capable. That's in a more of the organization of so many different competing interests. The thing that doesn't add up about the google earnings stick release, but then also what free partition he is there was this article that kind of tried to paint soon dar a sort of a career racy year, right, where Larry was the actual shadow c year.

While if that's true, you know, Larry has more incentive than anybody else to kind of force change, and there is all these kind of like gripes and complaints that were articulated, and I don't put much stock in all of the stuff. I think that he is the right person for the job. And I think what they have to do is just do the simple basic things like IT doesn't take A C E O change for a board of directors to have the emotional wear with all to authorize a fifteen or twenty percent reduction in force for a company that is so profitable that clearly is not yet humming on all cylinders.

And so you don't need to go through all of this drastic change to do these simple, obvious things might take away across all of these four big companies, as we are in a really unique moment to observe something that may sound controversial or hurt people's feelings that like these companies. But I think we're now well past peak big tech. Their valuations may still go up because they generate such an enormous amount of cash flow.

But these are exactly those kinds of businesses now. They are x growth, large cash flow businesses. Blue chip, you might say, well, they were always blue chip, but the way that they grow is not through innovation.

If you look at google, facebook, microsoft, apple and ask yourself, when was the last hugely disruptive thing that they've created your hard press to find something that was even done in the two thousand tents? Yeah, actually that's a good thought. I mean, the iphone for apple, iphone was two thousand and seven.

Microsoft was the nineteen nineties. Google was in nineteen ninety eight with core search. Maybe there was maps and gmail and two the two thousands chrome and right.

they bought some facebook .

IT was the core service that we built in the two thousands and then they acquired brilliantly, right? So I am not saying that they didn't acquire well, yeah, on my point is that core organic novation has been there for a long time. So this is a moment to just be reflective of the fact that these are some incredible companies with giant normous cash lows.

But now you've had this foundational platform shift, which exposes the fact that they really aren't good at innovating. And at times when they've tried to organically innovate theyve massive vely misallocated capital, either, drew, this would be the example of either draw a bloated baLance sheet so someone claim that google overspends or through just pure misallocation by starting projects that just are not large but consume large amounts of cash. That would be the facebook r example.

But in all of this, I think when you cut staff and expenses as a way to meat and beat and top line growth is in the low single digits, it's an important moment to recognize that these companies have now transition to being cash cows. And if you look at sort of how financial markets value cash cows, they're very valuable, but it's not where you look for growth. And so in a world where rates eventually get cut and we start to come out of recession, IT tends to be that other people get rewarded. So that's an idea that's .

going to your point here, they're not allowed to acquire this microsoft acquisition thing, dead, dead. So they're not going to be allowed to buy stuff. So then you're right, what is the growth here? They're not able to invade.

I think these companies are x growth, which is why they use their cash flows to do what borrows money cheaply, to buy backstop, to manipulate directly, right? You can manipulate and overcome delusion. You can manipulate earnings per share.

You can manipulate the number of shares outstanding. And so just by the nature of that whole game, a bunch of passive investors will end up buying more, which helps the active investors who owned that stock. So it's a game. So if we're not in the world.

financial engineering would be the mean, the most charitable way to say that we're .

in the financial engineer face, which is fine. And by the way, you can make a lot of money, facebook. So there's a lot there's a lot of meaning just this just this year. Oh yeah. So there's a lot of room for financial engineering, but it's not where you need to look to figure out where these big improvements and uses of this next generation platform technology is going to come from. Most likely.

sex is a fair assessment in your mind. Looking at you know the major tech companies of fans .

mean growth is down to single digits. So I microsoft had seven percent year year revenue growth. Google was at three percent.

I think facebook was first per sales rose ly a three percent from a year earlier. But at least that was an improvement because sasha gone down. For three strike quarters.

So yeah, you're downtown, you know a single digital of your growth rates. Nevertheless, most these companies beat expectations. So macsoftware .

was nine percent.

Meta jump twelve percent might be up more now. And I I guess google got a little bit of bounce and and they all gave A A pretty upbeat forecasts. The only one that wasn't a beat was google, where the CFO breth paua said that the outlook remains uncertain. But all the other one seem to indicate that things were going to get Better. So I think what's interesting about that is just the mismatch that we have between how well these companies in this quarter versus how uncertain the russian economy is looking right now .

and maybe the feds behavior.

yes. So maybe this is the fob site watch mouth is saying, is that not growing very fast, but they are profile machines generating a lot of earnings and they simply pretty immune from what's happening in the economy right now or released us what they are saying. Now you're right.

In a parallel track, there was an interesting interview that pal did. So uh, drone pal gave an interview is actually kind of like one of these hooks calls where a couple peel returning to be silliness. I engagement in interview.

oh my god, I was crazy playing that difference. My god. Have done the .

number of times you've got ten.

you know, major leaders. I think they did this to cron other people where they pretend to be the skin and they do an interview like .

A G yeah but they played IT straight.

I don't care that he was full into given the interview. It's like who cares? But some of the things he said, we're really interesting. I mean, everyone pl said that the economic outlook for the year was looking pretty uncertain.

And he said the most likely scenarios were either sub one percent growth, so staying out recession, but just barely, or he said going into recession. So he thought that was roughly about equally likely. He admitted that we had the worst inflation of forty years, and that's why interest strates were necessary.

And he said that he was necessary to slow the economy in order to combat inflation. And he then even went further and said that he was necessary to cool off the labor market and even to cool off wages, specifically because as how you combat inflation as the only thing we know to do in a situation like this. So I think this is certainly a political mistake for power to say that his objective areas to hurt the wages, the american people, and to basically cause a recession.

But that is his view, apparently. And I think that we are headed for IT seemly like A A recession. And a little surprise that the earnings support these tech companies are so good because early their forecasts so good.

Well, they can cut spending. And we talk about this last year when we were trying to predict what would happen. I remember saying, well, I thin I were to saying he earnings are gna go down and this A P, E.

And as what if they just stop spending where they make a lot of cuts? Well, here we are. People are just saying, you know what, we're going to cut our way to and do stock buybacks. And that's another way of financial engineering to round around the fed, right? And to make the stock go up worked incredible for a facebook, I mean, my lord, they were at ninety one dollars to share another over two hundred.

right? But just bringing back to the economy, so luck. I think we agreed. These tech companies centry pretty immune theyve got a large cushion in terms their ability exchange generating earnings because of all the below that, that actually gives them like a margin of error where they can just keep cutting to prop up earnings. And surprised that they think their revenue forecasts can be so positive because again, they were guiding upwards generally. So they seem to think there not me a impacted by the recession and maybe they won't be. Again, I think that was interesting from power, is the way that he seem to think that the only thing we know how to do this, basically, he said, the only thing we know how to do in the situation with inflation is to kill the economy, is a slow the economy, and specifically to kill jobs and wages. And that was pretty remarkable to, because there are other things we could do.

such as.

okay, well, one thing is that you don't have to print so much money .

spending and see .

our fiscal policy remains completely out, a wac where running two trillion dollar annual deficits right now past cove IT. So he could have said, listen, we could get off this reckless fiscal policy and be more restrained, but he didn't want to go there. The other thing you could have done was addressed the supply side.

One of the ways that you can reduce inflation is not just to kill a man, and you could actually affect supply chain. So like cost of energy, for example, energy is a huge, important the economy. And one of the things that happened at the beginning, this ministration, is they made IT much harder to draw for oil and gas.

And I think by in sort of reverse course on that, at the, say, the union memory, that long reset, we can get off all in gas for ten years, the onus started laughing. But anyway, the point is just that it's too little too late. They could have done more on an energy to keep costs low. And then there's a little bunch of a rather critical inputs in the economy besides labor.

And what you could do is I think you could go category by category and say, how do we we get the Price of these key a person to our economy down? How do we resolve supply chain bottle ex? How do we make IT easier to get access to wherever the key commodity is? And I think there's things they could do if they are just willing to work at IT.

This isn't the first job. This is more the administration. But what you could do to say, listen, we're going to make IT easier for people to produce and create supply.

And if you have a higher supply of kids and services, then you will start to bring, uh, inflation down because inflation is just the amount of money in the system divided by the number of goods and services. And when the other goods and services hasn't gone up, but the money supplies is kind of tremendously, you got inflation. And that's why I think it's a little at this place to be killing demand.

The way they're killing IT is because fundamentally, the problem here is they flooded the economy with money both through government stimulus and through quantity easing. And then also they made a harder on the supply side to produce, certainly with energy. So IT seems to me that the approach are taking for us to get out of this is like taking a meat liver to the economy or a slight chama, really, and is the most violent possible way that they could solve the problem they previously created of too much inflation.

Any other thing. Office is jobs. We are still sitting here with close to ten million job openings.

And the thing i'm hearing from the streets is that unemployment hacking is become A A high art. And so labor force participation remains low, nowhere near the historic ties. We have been very permissive during covet of, for good reasons, to give people very extended benefits.

People have now learned, is my understanding. And this is something that's happening on a regional level, state by state level. People are learning how to hack unemployment and nickles to work. And people are just not taking the jobs that are open, which are service industry jobs americans don't want to work on. We don't want to let people into the country, got right, low people coming into the country IT seems to me that would be a much more the way to do this.

right? Yes, yes. I think it's an excEllent point because exactly what you're doing there is addressing the supply side, which is you're unlocking the supply of a keep input in the economy, which is all this unused labor.

All these people aren't working. You're write the labor for translation rates still much lower than IT could be. So if you get more people into the economy than that helps alleviate the cost of of labor and helps fill these jobs. But IT doesn't kill the economy. So IT would be A A much more positive way to address this.

So I just think you should, to lack of creativity for him to say that the only thing we can do in the situation is not just to raise rates, he did say that, but but to go further and cool off the job market, increase on employment and cool off wages. I mean, this can be a very unpopular thing to say, I think, because we are basically saying is you're going to hurt the wages. American people who wants .

there is the chart for job open? We thought this would collapse. IT went down. And certainly, as we know, I don't want obsess over a macro stuff.

but it's still way up there.

And so the fact that we can get people to take these jobs and no cheap, what do you think about the employment in participation situation and how that might unlock things? I also wanted to know mutual h, this concept of the fed is reacting to data just so slowly. And then you have these companies that may be or more liable and they have Better data than the fed.

I think that that's a truism, and I don't think anything about that going to change. I mean, I think we talked about how these folks calculate non farm periods or how they calculate C P. I.

It's incredibly outdated, right? Its people with clip boards walking around, talking to people in checking boxes and filling out forms. Can that change? Probably IT could. Will a change? IT? Probably won't. And so they're going to a focus on the most simple but most powerful measure that they have, which is controlling the money supply and of what sx talked about. So they're going to manipulate the money supply to either put more liquidity in the system, in which case markets go up and asset Prices go up, but then inflation goes up, or constrained liquidity, which then causes markets to go down as a Prices to go down and inflation eventually to go down.

The thing that were facing today when you look at this labor market chart is a couple of things that I think we've talked about before and I just want to read ate them, which is you have to remember that we are in this new world order, which is the tax china world order, and in that there is no more unitary economy that can do things cheaper, faster, Better globally around the world, right? So we're going to near shore or onshore all kinds of things that used to be done by the chinese. They'll sit in mexico or y'll sit in central america, maybe in some cases, theyll sit in canada.

And all of that will feed into the united states. The problem with all of that is that, that will keep costs higher because it'll be naturally more inefficient. IT will naturally take more money and that will naturally cause the Prices of those things to be higher, which means that terminal inflation, I think, is just roughly higher as a result. I think that more power, if you will, goes to labor.

So in this constant tension that we have in an economy between labor and capital, the people that owned the factories or the businesses and the people that run them and work inside of them, we've been in this position where the pendulum has wrong so far towards capital, the owners, the shareholders, that all this financial engineering has tremendous upside, right? That's why companies engaging in. But when you show that charge is not what that means, is this is really hard to find people. And so the only way you're onna get people after, but to go into work, to sit the chair, to do a job that you need them to do is to pay them more. And in finding that wages will have to go up, the counter baLance of that is what A I will do.

which I think I was to say that is the key yeah.

which is massively. So that is going to be the tension that we're in now for a really long time as we explore this. I don't know if you guys saw today, but the coal at a twenty million dollar around in the thing called harvey R A I.

the legal uh.

which is like a legal super wizard for law firms yeah .

and we knew that was common.

And my partners and I were debating IT. And what we thought of was, well, how much do you pay out of the eight hundred or thousand dollars an hour that you charge to harvey to eye? Maybe you're willing to pay five percent or ten percent, but then the reality is that one of the most, most powful things that does is, is able to go into westlaw, find all these cases and say, yeah, this is germain to the thing that you're working on right now.

That's a very useful thing. But the end plus first law firm will also use that tool. And instead of charging eight hundred dollars an hour, i'll say now will charge six hundred ks an hour and we're still lying to give you five or ten percent.

So I just don't see a world where, on the one hand, physical labor will continue to be more expensive. It'll demand more, more money to do the job that they are asked to do. And the knowledge work will become increasingly more deflationary because so much of IT will be automated by A I that those folks will charge less and less. And there's going to be attention there. I don't exactly know what's going to happen.

I did a couple of experiments this week. I've been rolling up my sleeves and play with these tools. It's pretty amazing. And I were trying to use them for actual tasks in our companies.

What have you learned? What did you do and what you learn?

So I got on the uh OpenAI plugins brag thank you uh and my email and the and he got me on to that and you can connect IT to zai. Er so have two projects i'm working on currently. One of them I was as since i'm so raising once foreign, actually going out to people, not just taking in bound as, hey, can I get the names of all the major L.

P. S. And start doing some research? They are putting a table stuff that sexy when he does blog post. But then I started connecting IT with finding people's witter handled les, finding their linked in profiles.

And then the next piece of working on is automatically following them, damming them on twitter, let's say, or following them in doing in message saying, hey, we haven't met. Here's the deal memo for my next fund. Would love to, you know, get together.

This is sent from Jason's A I script that I was going to like, actually tell them. But here's my real email if after you read the summary of the next fund you want to meet and then I was, i'm gna pair that and this is a piece i'm gna probably need to develop today with our internal L P. Database to not email people who already duplicate.

And then inside with newsletters, I have IT building a database of every newsletter we've ever sent, the writing style, and then i'm having IT go find in real time news stories that we should be including in the newsletters, which I think we will make the writers right now a third more productive. But these are things that would cost forty, fifty box an hour, thirty box an hour for you to college educated americans and canadians. And I have already figured out, and i'm not a developer anymore, I had a script and um i'm actually thinking about learning to code again just so I can do this myself.

And so on saturday, i'm going to do a little coding with a friend of mine and get back up to speed on that. I think about thirty percent of what knowledge workers do right now is possible. So I put every single person at both companies on ChatGPT four and the the playground, about thirty percent of what knowledge workers that both firms can do currently is doable, if you can figure out.

And this stuff is not perfectly scripted yet. So i've been doing some stuff in travelled as well, playing with the car act interface, expedia interface eeta to look a travel planning. And it's pretty good as well.

So IT is, this is the real deal, folks. I think by the end of this year, thirty percent of knowledge work could be done by this. And then additionally, on monday, I went back to work in person, and I went to, I hosted our accelerator in person, and then I hosted, found a university in person in the city.

The city was absolutely dead, but we had one hundred people fly in from around the world for our founding university, and a lot of them were working on A I projects and was very interesting, is like there's a big debate going on freeburg between, is this going to be built into ChatGPT four or bar or you know, paul, whatever is? Or should I even bother? So should I bother building, you know, a vertical line step? And IT turns out like I think you should do the vertical step and you're going to be able to put together multiple of these A I S that have different specialties ties. Um so i'm super soak about IT, but I do think if you are not using this, if you hear my voice right now and you're a White collar worker and knowledge worker and you're not using this this year in getting up to speed on IT, I think you'll be out of a job with the the .

mix two cheese wow I just don't take .

your compete IT would be like trying to compete without knowing how to use microsoft office twenty years ago, right? Like could you work and not no email. Remember when we came into the workflow th thirty years ago and some people knew office and email and web research and that other people didn't. Those other people retired. They were phased out if you didn't know how to use a computer and type and using excel spread sheet or do a powerpoint.

you are done. I think this too possible as you going to interpret IT what you're saying. So in terms of the economic impact.

So one is that you could say, well, a eis going to three percent of knowledge work. Therefore, three percent of the knowledge workers are going to be put out of work. I think a different way to put IT would be every knowledge working and can get thirty percent more work done.

So if that's the case than they're more productive, and we are just talking about the problem, how do you increase real wages in the economy without having inflation? Well, the way to do that is every worker be more productive. So if every worker thirty percent more productive, in theory, their wages will to go up by up to thirty percent that how you get wage growth.

Now maybe there will be some companies, they don't need all those employees because now to get, you know, whatever third more done. But there are the other companies who can hire them. They can go often do other jobs or other companies searching when you've got this backlog of, like you said, eight or ten million new, you know.

jobs are around. Jobs are all service though.

Now they are not really going to have this big group of knowledge workers. But there is nothing for them today. I do I agree with you.

but I think there is going to be a group knowledge workers who do not embrace this and do not make the transition because IT, it's going to require an upscaling like I think you're actually going need to know how to do some basic programing and coding can really take advantage of these, at least like .

scripting level. So I don't know, it's pretty easy use. I agree with you.

there are many blog post, but the date the example I gave of like taking the L P database sorting IT, you know it's not quite .

this is like A P but IT .

is like I think IT takes like level two programme skills.

No, IT doesn't. No, you don't know the program, you just know how to prompted in natural language is the opposite. You need to learn how to code the thing.

The thing that makes coding hard is that you have to learn the specific command. It's like its own language. You have learn a new language with this.

You don't, in fact, one of the cool things about some of these OpenAI apis that you just tell IT what you wanted to do this sign and look a scripting language. Love is a natural language, and that makes IT incredible, easy to use even for developers. So I don't think this is a hard technology to use.

I agree with you there maybe people are resistant to IT because there's always people who is this to change a new technology. And you're right, if they don't adapt, they are gona be dinosaurs. But I don't think this is a hard technology to to grow out to use and get benefit from.

You might be right. I mean, right now, it's so new that the glue between systems is just not there at and maybe you'll be able to talk to ChatGPT for any connection database on notion IT, take a type form in a survey monkey, put IT all together and figure that all after you.

So yeah, the game right now is still connecting all .

these things and and that's what i'm talking about. And like that's kind not there yet, but in the auto GPT stuff you need to develop ate now, but anyway, deep in IT. And I am more excited right now, this feels to me like two thousand and five, two thousand twelve period when you just saw ajax and the web and speed just all coming together so quickly.

And the rapid iteration is just unbelievable. I every day I find a new thread. I have made my default web page opening. Like when I open a new page on my PC, IT just opens ChatGPT for now, just so I forcing myself use IT for every possible task. And the people who work for me, some of them are doing its, most of them are not.

And i'm just trying to drag everybody along and then you have at the same time this um a remote work thing happening where salaries and finding are starting to Normalize, not across cities but across countries. So you know hiring somebody in canada, estonia, sampo and then you had the AI to IT. The cost to do things is this is like, I don't know, I think everything's going to cost about ten. All this knowledge work is going to be ten percent as expensive to do. I don't think it's ten percent less to math or you know, I think it's a ninety percent ten cents .

on the dollar.

And it's not this is not a five year, ten year predictions. So like five quarter ten person.

we said that the first organizations to use this like the canary in the coal mine, would be the consulting organizations in today. When harvey got announced, one of the things that the right on the heals of that Price water, as Coopers announced, at a billion dollar investment into AI, which makes sense because as a consulting organization full of lawyers and accountants and I T folks, those are the services jobs that you get tremendous leverage if you were to use these tools freely.

Any thoughts? I don't know. I mean, I think we cannot beat this horse to death. Talked about a for a couple months. And I think you just keep repeating ourselves.

are you doing anything when you're first hand? Are you playing with IT yourself?

But look, I tell about by the way, one thing I will say, we all talk about cost reduction and then oh, you know knowledge work is dead and we're going to save money and all this stuff what what that is always the first reaction to any new point of leverage realized from some novel technology. The second is suddenly people start doing things that use that leverage to do things that they couldn't have done before.

So it's not just about dropping costs, it's about enabling new things that does a hundred times more or or uni maginness things prior. And I think the next phase of this, A I shock wave that they can hit us and hit the world and you know kind of hit enterprises is gonna be the evolution of integrating those tools in a very unique way with other tools to drive very novel things forward to create new things, new projects, new progress. That was unfast amble before.

So it's not just about cost savings. It's gonna be about new stuff. I shared a link on twitter yesterday. There is some guy I want to quote .

him correctly.

name is mckay riglar. So IT shut out to mci on his twitter page. IT says that he didn't know how to code in twenty and nineteen. He learned at the code for the first time, he told himself, and he put together an object recognition tool with ChatGPT. I saw this video case with his web cam and basically he holds up like a diet coke.

And he's like, you know, coming how many what is this and how many calories on IT and it's like, oh, there is no calories and a little to diet coke. And he does this three different times with three different objects, and he hacked this thing together in a couple of hours. That is a product that was like theoretically ally unfeasible or you know of very, very difficult to to see how you put that piece together quickly, easily with one person in a room in a few hours a year ago.

And here you see a demo of of this person who didn't know how to code not too long, go putting IT together and creating this product that would have been such a profound startup. Imagine if you went to VC eighteen months ago, like, look, i've got this thing, and I hold stuff up in front of them and tells me all about IT. And IT talks to me, and I literally use my voice to talk to IT.

And he basically strung together a text to speech ChatGPT, an object recognition to all of the stuff, completely open source, and a, uh, a plugging that is weblog. And the whole thing is basically like your own interactive visual robot is is an incredible product demo. And I thought I was so amazing and profound.

I sure it's a prototype and it's kind of jack IT was done in a few hours on almost the no code basis. It's incredible. So what's going na come from that is a whole set of new products and ideas and things that we are certainly not thinking about today, but in six months is going to become almost mainstay.

And many new categories of products, many new industries, many new businesses are to emerge that we're not even thinking about. So the lad argument of, oh, this is going to destroy jobs and destroy the economy and drop cost by ninety percent, lawyers are gna get cheaper, is that I think that doesn't even matter. The tip of the iceberg. What's more exciting is all the new evolutionary stuff that's going to hit the market that's really gna transform the things that we can do and that .

we didn't realize we could do analogy for this because what you're really talking about is more people being to use tools and be creators. And what happened in the eighties and nineties when B. N, B.

A started playing exhibition games around the world, was more people around the world started playing basketball. And then you started seeing people like lua, or before him, yang ming, mutombo, you started at people from around the world who had never been exposed to basketball. Just incredible. Sing us.

Incredible talents emerged because you just had more people playing with the best while think you going to have more people playing with code and building products so you going to have incredible amounts of creativity from people who maybe you didn't expect because they didn't go to school for coding. I would have that opportunity. Hey, I mentioned I was in friday and I was at families office and importance sinise officers to blaw firms being a law firms in uh the the financial district barco IT was an an absolute ghost down.

And when I say that goes down, I really like serious goes down like weird, like this is a still like being in some destroyed and science fiction last man on earth. And then we saw in the group chat today, three fifty california street was worth three hundred million dollars four years old. This is twenty two story glass and stone tower picture of IT.

It's going up for sale and they believe, according to the wall street journal, that kids will come in at sixty million dollars and eighty percent decline. And we talked about this commercial real state, uh, would have this moment a lot of the banks, uh, the smaller gino banks on this debt. Sax, what do you thinks gona happen here? Who is the person who would buy an office tower in downtown even at eighty percent discount, knowing that you have to pay all those Carrying costs and there's so much back in office space and is only increasing.

right?

What you who who business.

it's called land banking.

Okay, explain.

So other words, okay. What I mean is you're right, there are three percent ency and service is scary now maybe going up even more in the next few years as leases role and people take less space, you may have a countervAiling effect in terms of new companies moving back because of a ye or expanding. So it's possibly you start to see some growth in the office markets and in with a scope.

But the bottom line is thirty percent plus vacancy is going to take years and years of growth in order to absorb. So you're right, this building, they can slash its rent, but they still probably can fill IT. I mean, there is no, there is no demand. So you're going to sitting on that property for five years, ten years before the market comes back the way that you need IT to.

But so yeah oh, it's onna trade .

to way below its replacement costs. You are to build that building today cost you many times what they are going to pay for IT. The problem is you can't finance that purchase with debt because a Billy some kind of generate enough revenue. So this might mean by land banking, it's going to have to be an equity investor who is willing to think long term and say, i'm going to buy this at a super distress Price. I'm just going to sit there and hold IT and wait, Carry IT like you said, barry, the Carrying costs until the market comes back.

But J, K, L, I want to say something out. I think it's a great analogy because public growth stocks have declined seventy plus percent right since the the market started to decline.

And we've talked a lot about the statistic that i've shared a bunch publicly on how seventy percent of publicly traded companies that have gone public in twenty twenty are trading below their total cash invested sce since funding, which should translate to an estimate that call IT something on the order of seventy percent of private companies are probably worth west in the preference stack. And so they're not worth list companies. They just have a capital structure that is upside down.

Those companies are making products for customers as products. Those customers are paying money for those products. There's value there.

There's real value there. The value just been reset. And so it's interesting. It's not just the asset class of growth dogs in the asset class of private companies or private tech.

It's also you know in commercial real estate ate we we try to treat each of these as if they were in isolation, but the problem is many of these assets were funded with some degree of leverage. Preferred stock is leverage. And you know IT is a form of debt because he has a preference over the shareholders.

They are the common shareholders, the equity holders, and the same is true with this commercial real state market that there was a certain amount of debt. So the availability of low cost capital security, zed against some asset, the form of debt or in the form of preferred stock in a private company has the same effect, which had allowed the valuations to balloon on the equity. And now that the market has really rationalized, the Prices down seventy plus percent across all three of these connected.

But you know someone this parasite classes as you're kind of having a big Green set moment and fund enough. The other statistics is the cell phone traffic down seventy percent in downer and set right. So funny. All for these numbers .

are pretty much on track. Is this short is crazy. It's literally like you have some cities that have more cell phone traffic than they did glasses here about a couple years ago.

And this is downtown. I .

mean, the wider bay area. I don't booming, but it's viBrant. Yeah, I said on last week, show is looking for a place to host the accelerator in samee il area.

I got dozens of people contacting me. Hundreds of locations and offers at twenty five percent of what the Carrying costers or like that Carry quest, the rent was. And people offering the major companies offering me free space just because they would like to have founders hanging around.

And there was one project that I would like the first, like I give IT you for whatever, just because I want to get more people to downtown saa tail h so that that does sort of prove of the point that there is a well, I I saw this in new york city during the the nineties when things were so cheap, people just got native with space IT inspired people to say, i'm going to create an art gallery. I am going to create a performance space. And and I don't know when that happens in in from cisco with these spaces. Feels like it's gonna uh, a while. I don't know what you when do you think there will be demand for the space sex if you had to pick a year over and .

give us an over under I mean, five years plus? I mean, just to give you some number as I think a healthy vacation rate in the office market is five or ten percent. A high vacancy rate in a city was consider like fifteen percent like you wanted to be an office investor in the market than fifteen percent vacancy, five, ten percent was sort of the Normal range.

If you were under five percent, IT was a super hot market. And then fifteen was sort of up, not great market from an investor standpoint. So there are at thirty percent plus. And like I said, I could get worse before gets Better because as this is role, people are going to shed more space that that they might not already be subleasing. So the real number .

might be like forty percent.

So I do not know. I think if I get yeah doesn't see a decade. It's a decade is summer that syria is go gets his house in order and companies come back speaking of and new companies are created and they don't completely recit. It's not clear to me that .

like things will go in the right direction. I mean, speaking of that, do we want to bring up this horrific bae spray attack now you want to cue that out of sex? I mean, we're we're like in full on golf m city now. Now we have vigilant.

There is a story of a of a fire commission er name a don, commonly oni, who has been with a metal pipe by by ganging of homeless headcase who were encamped in front of his mother's house and apparently they were harassing her and they were doing drugs smoking drugs or whatever right in front of not pot IT was like math crack seeing like a hard drug and um so what we know is he went down their head words with them but A B but a boop you know and they bash them upside the head with a pipe and uh now IT turns out that he was accused by the defendants lawyer the one of assault attests so we don't really know what's true here of using bear spray on them first. So the da drop charges the lawyer for the defendant in that case is saying that he apparently was the perpetrator of these bear spray attacks on on homeless people going back a number of years I guess as a, but he said pretty nearly video of, I do not know, but obviously the da thought something was kind of hinky e because they dropped charges against the the guy who assaulted him.

the person who spare raised the bar or spray, and the person who beat somebody with the pipe.

Shen, both people here, yeah, yeah. Of course, listen this video of somebody bearing spring homes, people that clearly wrong. However, that was from a couple of years ago, the one that was released from one we have video from the night that carbon I was assaulted, that they were chasing him down.

They are, yes.

with the metal pipe. And even, even if they were acting in self defence, you can't go chasing the guide of more damage. Actually, that's vengeance.

That's not self defense. yes. So they took IT out of that zone of self offense, and they were chasing after him.

And if you saw what he looked like after the attack using deadly force, he could have been killed. And, you know, dona gun killed by the metal pipe. I don't think to be a defense that a bear spray them first.

No, just to an .

excessive use of force. But in any event, I mean, where the da ended up on this, that was just a drop charges from that night because .

that they're gona drop those charges. I think that.

that's going to be untenable.

They drop the charges. They have to mean justice, has to be correct them in your, your, your a trained lawyer here we have to apply the law equally to the statistic. Insane person who said they arrested the guy who hosts a person down, they arrest them as well.

I remembers seeing a perp work for that. So anyway, it's got city folks. This is gone to pure .

proves anything. I mean, again, they are trying to say now that because of of the actions that down talk, that services go as safe and is not going to worry about and these hacks, people who are in camped on the sidewalks, doing drugs, doing hard drugs, is nothing to worry about, because somehow they were provoked by carmona oni. And I just think I agree with you that this is part of an overall pattern of chaos and loses in the city. IT is like authentic s city. So you know, IT doesn't make me feel a lot Better about what's happening on the streets.

It's not to athi wanted something .

I want free brook to. Oh, ref, on. Let me.

Ah yes. Well, there was actually a story about this. I guess there's two types of these, two types of mock beats.

I've had the impossible burger. I've never craved an impossible burger. And greg possible was with three, a printed minutes. And this stuff seems to be taking forever. Where is that? Because I was a story in the wall street journal about how poorly this is apparently going.

So there's .

three categories .

of these alternative proteins to traditional animal protein. The first is this called alternative .

proteins.

where you use things like soy protein, or p protein. Beyond burgers is a good example. They have A P protein based burger. And so that category was kind of hot for a minute where everyone is like, oh, it's it's an eco conscious decision.

People will make the shift and you know, beyond meat had this massive I P O in the stock when crazy, like someone said, he was the biggest return ever for kiner perkins. But I really was just taking plant protein processing IT and trying to make a sort of mimic detection and flavor and taste of animal protein. And it's more expensive. So I have generally been fairly negative on whether that really moves the needle, right? The needle for me is, can you replace animal proteins traditionally, and stop using all this land and putting all this carbon into the atmosphere and all this water and all these resources that we use to make all these animal proteins, which I think is both kind of ethically incorrect, but also extraordinar arly environmentally costs.

So can ask you a question you think is also important for IT to not just replay natural products, despite all of those externality to talk about with artificial products, with chemicals and sugar.

So first, while everything is a chemical, so you know, I think the the categories of you know all chemicals are bad as silly because everything is made of chemicals. I think it's a question of other bad things that are being put in there that's not good for your health to make IT four or whatever. And that that may or may not be the case.

It's really product dependent. I don't think it's a good generalization, but due so you think when I need to sell IT and seating chemicals, IT is chemicals yeah but hey, right healthy chemicals are in the service. There's good to their bad yeah for sure.

And then bad chemicals. Ga, a good, bad for sure. right?

I just want to understand you just viewed as a spectrum of chemicals.

Some good, so good, yeah, those things that are good for you there, there is good faster, bad faster there, you know. And even in the categories sugar, some people say all sugars are about, some people say some sugars are Better than where others, as measured by the glass mate .

index of the stuff beyond all processed highly. They got a lot of salt. They got a lot of fat, right? There's they're not good for you.

So the way that beyond and impossible and others have tried to make IT taste good for people, as theyve added, a lot of, you know, saturated that which is awaited, drive the mouth el, make a taste. But then a lot of doctors, the american hard association, came out and said that those fats are really bad for your heart and you shouldn't need them. And also, there has been a general kind of consumer sentiment shift.

So a couple years ago, these were the hottest st product. IT was like all the food ingredient companies were shifting to plant face proteins, and they were building plant space protein business categories. And IT was a big hot thing.

And then they came out there like, way to second. This isn't going as we thought. What happens if people try him out and they're like, that's a cool thing.

I want to do good for the planet, but would I rather pay five books for do good for the planet burger that cana doesn't taste that? Or what, I rather pay three box for a burger that takes really good. And what happens?

B, B, I have choose option b.

yeah and so the most people, right? And so almost all people and I that's the point. I've i've always red.

I said it's not going to win the heart and minds of the world unless it's cheaper and it's takes Better and healthier and the and doesn't damage your health, doesn't make you worse. exactly. So the more chAllenging technical solution is the other two categories.

The second category is, can you sympathize animal proteins using recombined DNA? So this is where you take the DNA that codes for the protein, whether it's the milk protein or the egg protein or the cheese protein, and you put IT in a bacterial cell or youth cell that are used to format that we used to make wine, that we used to make beer, and they each sugar, and then they spit out a product. And in the case of wine and beer, they each sugar from grape or from Miller, whatever, and they spit out alcohol.

And genentech was the first company to really pine your recommended D. N. A. At the mass ale. They basically use recommended DNA to make insulin.

So they took the D, N, A from humans that that codes for insulin, the gene, for instance. And they put an eco I bacteria. And they put the eco I bacteria in a big tank.

And that equal, I started to duplicate and they make all this insulin. And that's how we make all the world's insulin today, is using that bio manufacturing process. And it's how we make all of biologic drugs, all anybody drugs are made this way. It's a three hundred billion dollar your market just in drugs. So when crisp r kind of came about in twenty twelve, suddenly the tool kit to go in and do a much Better job and a much cheaper job of editing the genomes of little microbe to make a more efficient at making these proteins became standard. And everyone said, let's go use this new category of being called synthetic biology, simba, to make all these animal proteins that we use animals to get today.

So so can I just ask a question, is the idea that if you use recombined D N A in this process, IT would takes Better and be healthier .

in all this time? identical. So it's the exact same protein. I understand .

the exact same under a microscope or whatever.

But what IT taste the same case, exact same totally.

I so that that that the guess .

that is the protein. So whether get protein from the cow.

you get the protein from the east of.

And so the key metric in that second category is productivity, grams per leader per day. How well can you get that little micro organism to make that protein? The more protein that makes per day, the cheaper the Price per protein. And we're still a far ways off from getting this to be Price competitive. So that's A, A chAllenge category right now. There's a lot of i'm invested in a couple of companies in the space where we're trying to make IT faster and cheaper to do that, train engineering to edit the genome up front and make them make those little cells more productive to bring the Price program down and hopefully make IT compete ultimately with the traditional market for eggs, cheese, milk.

tea. But what is the constraints? Is that an energy constraints, or is a natural.

biological and capability? The great thing is, on our first principles basis, the biosphere sics indicates this should make proteins cheaper. And that is good for the planet. It's good for human health.

It's good for everything we should be able to make, eggs, cheese, milk, all this stuff exactly the same as what you get from an animal without the animal. Because the bio physics of a single cell making IT is Better than the bio physics of a whole animal. Think about a chicken.

IT grows feathers at clock, IT walks around that has energy, makes. So the chicken as a system is not that energy efficient, but a little cell that just each sugar and its program to do one thing and one thing on each gar make protein, each sugar make protein and spit as much without you feel you can make IT way more efficient. exactly. Now we're making great progress, but we're not there yet. We're not a commodity .

Price point of why. I'm trying to ask why where the feature there .

is two failure points. Sorry, I should I should say there are three. The first to train engineering, which is, you want to shuffle all the other genes in organism to stop doing things like growing a bigger cell wall, or, you know, taking your time to duplicate.

You want to change the of the cell to get IT to do stuff faster. The second stage is process engineering. When you put that cell in a tank, you're changing the sugar, the method, C, O, two, the oxygen, the P, H.

Everything about the tank and the condition of the tank have to be adJusting. So there's about sixty variables, and those sixty variables all need to be tuned and tweet before you optimize the performance of production. The third category is the artist, which is scale manufacturing.

There's about a hundred million leaders of bio manufacturing capacity on earth today. Ninety five million leaders is owned and Operated by companies that use. And when I say, by manufacture capacity and talking about big stainless steel tanks, you pour water, you pour sugar, you pour yourself ells in make copies, and they make your stuff.

Of that hundred million leaders, ninety five million is owned and Operated by companies. Five million is available for rent. Of that five million leaders, four million is rented for its entire life span by some company, usually a biologic drug company, because very little of this is being done in food today. So there's only a million leaders left to red, and there's two hundred cin BIOS startups try to make animal proteins and theyve all competed for this this capacity. So the capacity cost has .

gone up by four fold. But IT sounds like the latter two you can overcome with capital. But the first plan is really bounded by science.

It's more engineering because what you track is kind of what's called the title curve, which is grants per leader. And the more experiments you do, the higher that number goes. And so if you can increase your experimental .

rate and the few the few grams that IT does produce today, when when a Normal person taste, they're like yet this taste same as A A W R. I.

no. So remember i'm talking about proteins, right? I'm not talking about to sell you me. I want to talk about sell you me last, which is the hardest category, which is what you're talking about. I'm talking about taking that protein and then using IT to make a product like like a cheese for you know, using IT is a network place, place that kind of it's the same protein is what you will get .

from eggs or milk or what have you.

This sounds so hard, was a big problem, and it's a lot of money. So is a problem excelling or two hundred billion dollars a year? I mean, the method released from cows is one of the largest contributors to global warming.

It's a it's a real problem. Also.

we're going to need to solve this.

We're onze Venus. What do you need to get food there?

I just ask question, like if you if you go after the high emission categories first, do you give yourself room to leave these things because you're doing so much already? Just a question.

Animal agriculture emissions are one of the largest and unfortunately one of the biggest drivers because these people's GDP per capital increments. The first thing they spend .

money on a prone I get IT. I'm saying something different, which is if we just invented Better heat pus, you'd have industrial heating and cooling, which represents like almost a third of all Greens as emissions. You get that off and you give yourself a lot of time in space, in room, and maybe you would let the cows room and belt and birth because the meat just says Better and you don't have to spend a bunch of time.

And I don't I think an and I think we should be doing all these things. And I think that I I am a big believer s as you guys know, in markets. So i'm not a believer in transition for the sake of you know carbon saving because people aren't going to pay a premium, as we've seen with the kind of alternative me, I fifteen dollars.

People want cheaper. Hamburger markets want cheaper, cheaper, cheaper. So if you can make protein cheaper, it's also a great or you can make money doing this and the market will buy IT because it's cheaper protein.

And I just want I just want to hit on this. We I like no. But the third category, ori, is the one of the article is about which is cellular meat. So sallus meat is where you're trying to make your walk, you or your shrimp or your fish.

You're trying to make cells, not just proteins, but entire cells, and those cells stick together and they look and cook and feel and taste like cellar meat, like, like muscle, like what you eat when you eat Fisher or be for whatever. And the problem there is you're trying to take a cell and cells Normally grow on your bones and on tissue. And so there's scaffolding and all these systems that hold all the cells together.

And so to get sells, to grow in a tank and stick together and replicate without other cells signal them, turns out to be really expensive. There was an executive at merk I spoke to a few months ago, and he said we're going to sell feeld bovine serum, which is basically like this liquid that they get from the fetuses of cows. And this is how cellular meat started.

They took a cell from a cow. They put in a tank with feet ove serum, and the cell started to replicate and duplicate. And then they could take those cells and try and tournament into a beef, into a burger and sell IT or or try IT.

That was the million dollar of burger, if you remember that a couple years ago. And feeder, both in service market, has gone through the roof because so many companies are trying to make saluer meat. And the mark exact was like we're onna sell a billion dollars of feedback and and they are going to sell zero because no one's going to be able to make money.

Doing this is just impossibly not to sell five hundred or burgers. So the technical chAllenge there is you have to edit the cells to get them to duplicate. You have to get them to grow in suspension, meaning in a tank instead of growing on bones and growing next to each other and scape ting. And then you have to change the feedstock so that you're creating all these other proteins and signaling factors and hormones that you pour into the tank that triggered ourselves to grow.

Is there any chance that, after all, this IT actually just tastes slightly different? There are Better IT may.

yeah IT may, but likely not. I mean, let's be honest, these are you're taking .

A A cow sell or a salmon cell and I know maybe depending on where the water that they drink, the actual grass that they eat, the meat does taste different. And that part .

of the the.

I mean, look at the a corn fed cows that beat that. We used to have a poker .

before austerity measures. Life was so good and twenty twenty one well.

that's that. No, we can't get IT anymore.

Yeah I know we're on a budget. I get IT. No.

not us. We can't get IT anymore because they said through one channel um but yeah like I did the so good at the variation you're .

talking about this, I is obviously at an echelon in a class of eating to math that's probably not mainstay like you know the thirty thousand dollar a year mcDonald's burger and chicken nugget either is probably happy to take to a .

chicken because if you go to hold foods and you actually buy like A U S D top salon, there's a certain tax that IT has that things that are not U S D A don't have. So even even at like the most basic blair of the food, you can differentiate on taste based on the same this one. I think I think it's just a very complicated long gunna process.

And I just wonder if the people that are in these businesses. If they actually love food or not, I understand why they love the science. I get IT, and why they would love to save the planet.

I get that too. But unless some of these people are are, are also food lovers, they're gonna miss. I think the thing word all dies anyway.

I just want to restate again for the final time, these these are identical cells and identical proteins to what you're getting from the animal. So they are not like what we talked about in that first category. We are trying to get other stuff to sort a taste like meat. You're literally trying to create the meat and create the protein using these systems.

And I just trying to tell you that salmon, two pieces of salmon can takes totally different depending on where. Sm.

right? And I guess what I could say probably yeah you could probably adjust the conditions in the tank if needed to change the characteristic with my point.

like you don't even know where to start. How is that? The fucking kelp in the atlantic ocean?

Like what do you change? I look, I don't know what help effects on the salmon.

Mon, this is my point.

nobody.

This is why we pay so much for the a corn fed beef.

I get IT. But most beef is not kept from the atlantic ocean. Its animals grown in very large feedlots fed corn on water. That's IT. Let me just say that again, ninety percent, ninety five percent a animal protein consumed is cows, pigs and chickens growing feed lots that corners soybeans and water. And that's IT right?

But if you if you go to different countries and taste the meat that fat in that exact same way, IT tastes different. So for example, if you go to argentina.

I I appreciate what you think, but the point animals you can recreate, whatever the system is that you're talking about. So I want to just get back to the unit economics, the cost per kilogram or the cost per gram of the protein. We are still many orders of magnetite away on cellar meat.

So the problems you're laying out are really down the road, problems of optimization right now. We've got more fundamental problems on how do you actually get this stuff to be cost competitive. Now fortunately, the tools of crisp r and since crisp r guest came out ten years ago, there are now hundreds of variants that are open source, I P free, royalty free and use very broadly in generally and D N A sequences, costs continued decline.

Those are the two basic tools that are being used by biochemists and engineers to do rapid evolutionary iteration needed to produce the recombined production of proteins, to produce the new cell, to produce the feed stock for those tanks. And there's a cost curve that we're trying to get over. It's not happening overnight.

Hundreds of millions dollars and in several cases, billions of dollars have gone into these systems, and it's very likely that these companies may need several more years and several billion dollars. We are gonna there. The technology is progressing.

The rate of progress is a little slower and it's a little more chAllenges, I think then the first round of investors had hoped. But I do think that scientifically and first principles, IT is absolutely feasible is a function of engineering our way there to giving to math. And everyone else see these programs and chicken and nuggets thing that they want, hopefully at a lower .

Price if you put them on the curve of, uh, self driving cars. You know we have cruise doing some automated taxes and like a very constrained area in south cisco, but we don't have IT everywhere. Where do you put this .

on the curve is a question. So so what happened, by the way, as we've gotten down the cost curve, we are unlocking new markets. So new products are being produced existing proteins that are come from animals.

As a good example of person, it's uh, extracted from pigs today. It's very expensive somewhere how we used to make insulin and we're replacing the sourcing of that product. We replaced insulin, which we used to get from pigs plains.

Uh, we now make up recommended. We're now replacing pepin. We're replacing the the rented that used to make cheese. Uh, so as we moved down the costco of these high we are called high value proteins are the first to fall.

Those markets collapse because we now make them commented they were sorry, the collapse in Price because they're now cheaper using their combined systems instead taken for animals and eventually will get to that cost curve where their ubiquitous all proteins or for all types of cells. In the meantime, there are pretty sizable markets to go after. These are multi billion dollar markets that are getting knocked down.

We don't talk about IT everyday doesn't show up in the news, but it's really profound and interesting to see that this technology is working. It's overturning multibillion dollar. It's making progress. And you know hopefully it'll get to the point that you know everything from the chicken and nugget to the kelp with salmon can have .

you guys tried to beyond burger or an impossible burger. I've had IT. I've tried them a long time ago but have not tried them recently.

They're like it's like eating something machi that's sixty percent of a average MBA ger. It's not worth paying double for certainly for somebody who's a hamburger ger either. So while we were talking, by the way, amazon's results came out, they crushed IT earning per share thirty once sense verses eleven and stock ten percent off .

hours and IT .

was up four percent today where the insider traders make you feel .

about your recession prediction.

I'm sticking by IT. I think we're looking at a recession, but IT is an interesting paradox. Xx here. So I think there is only a couple possibilities. Either tech is sort of a you or the forecasts down so much. They were so conservative, their forecasts thinking we're going to be in a recession that IT was easy to beat or look, I could be wrong about the recession, but palaces IT and pale saying if it's not a recession, can be less than one percent growth is me rounding air to recession.

So it's not credible.

So I am not revising my forecast. Well, I think pal is credible when he's giving us bad news because they are intent of is always to fu IT up and make IT sound Better than IT is. So when he's telling you things look bad, maybe they're looking really bad.

No men but I look .

at the tilted cities right now.

I mean, the big tech company, he seems to be doing really well. So it's it's definitely a paradox.

Yeah all right.

everybody with the whole arf k thing .

OK topic yeah great. Top head.

I think we should tell people like what he's about. I think he gave a terrific announcement speech and this give me background for the Younger views who may not know. So Robert f.

Kennedy has father ran for democratic nomination one thousand nine hundred sixty eight after his brother john f. Kennedy had been present sassine ated, as we know, and the only one thousand nine hundred and sixty what happened is at this time, before the one thousand and sixty election, linna e. Johnson was the income of democratic president, and everyone thought that he be the party's nome and he was going to get reelected.

And he was brought down by an extremely unpopular war, the vietnam war. And he was rk juniors father who was a great critical of the vietnamese AR. And he ran the democratic nomination. And I think he very likely would have gone n IT. On the night that he won the california primary.

he was assassinated.

Hh, yeah, if you go back and the things that he was saying in that campaign, he really was saying a lot of beautiful things that, or in his son's ad, that I think would be worth playing here. But I I think you have maybe the set up for a similar situation here. You've got an income of democratic president who is sort of not that popular.

He sort of old and out of IT nink coherent. He's presiding over a war that is rapidly becoming a debacle. You don't hear so much about the spring counter defensive anymore. These new pentagon papers that were leak show that the ukraine casualties are at least five times greater that have been publicly admitting IT looks like russia certainly not losing the war the way they used to be.

They have captured ninety percent of box mode, which has been the most violent, bloody battle of the war, and by, at this point, has no strategy to bring that to an end. In fact, he is rejected multiple attempts at a peace deal. And so now IT looks like it's the chinese who are in the driver seat, potentially putting together some sort of matic.

So I think, listen, if the economy ends up going into recession and this war ends up becoming, the fiasco is increasingly looking like you could ever set up like one thousand nine sixty eight, where people are wondering why the hell this guy are nominee and let me tell you, R F K juniors already pulling at nine percent, which I think is pretty good concerning he just came out the gate and people don't even know the substance this campaign yet. Marian Williams, ince, nine percent. So if he dropped out, you will be at twenty eight percent for the alternative. And I think he could go up from here. And I think if you, if you watch the speech gave, I thought there was a lot of really beautiful sentiments in there.

good.

He said that bitter is mean ukraine, a pn in a geological battle that has put the flower of ukraine's youth into an avatar of death. In order to exhaust russia, he channeled america's anti war traditions. He quitted jungen cy atoms that america, chicago, abroad, in search of monsters to destroy.

He quoted Martin luther king, junior. There is a direct link tween poverty and violence and oppression at home and war abroad. He talked about the role of CIA during his uncles administration, where he said that joan Kitty eventually realized that the purpose the CIA had become to create a steady pipeline of wars to feed the military industrial complex.

And he talks about how J, F, K. Came to distrust the sea and realized that he was lying to him. And the biggest apolline of his speech was when he quoted gfk province saying that he wanted to take the CIA and shatters into a thousand pieces and scattered to the winds.

And there's very same week that he gave the speech, we found out that five former CIA directors had participated in giant hooks on the american people by claiming that this, another biden story, was russian to information they knew I was not, they knew was not. The information on the hard drive was real. IT showed that ho biden received multimillion dollar payments from foreign governments, including china and ukraine.

O and regards of what you think of that story, IT should not have been suppressed by social media, and IT certainly should not have been suppressed in a siop by fifty one former intelligence officials, including five former directors, the CIA. And if that's the way they're going to behave, if there's going to medal in american politics that way, I think we do need to start over. We do not need to ask what's going on with the security state. They're not be metal in american politics that way. So I think if this is the way they are going to act, I say shatter away, scattered that thing into a thousand pieces.

Hi cathode, i've offer.

And he's called out the insanity .

of covell lockdowns. And one thing they .

are trying to .

position and does .

the so and if you go back and .

look at his record, he basically the land, I remember of some events for IT. They wanted to clean the hutt and up and they just bought the land and didn't people donate the land and they bought IT. They raise ed money.

And the hutt in today has like, you know, the that is flourishing, amazing. And he is directly responsible for that. He was a big .

critic of the way that corporate gree could leads big companies to engage and environmental pollution. At a certain point, he realized that big farmer had a similar incentive. Now I don't know if he is right about those vaccines, but I do know that he's right.

In the case of coffee, they is incentive to push this dubious a shot on us so that we get boosted as ilian times. And he is right about that. He was right about the fact that this should never been Mandates.

We should have lockdowns. And you know, what in is nomination speech or is declaration? The word vaccine was only mentioned once. So this is not what his campaign is about.

I look for to have .

the mom yeah and to be honest, I mean, look at all the other things that were doing to be conspiracy theories .

that ended up being true monster.

That right?

Where could be embarrassing? Let me see that sex. If I was vers trade of offer.

vers process.

I'm not going to take .

a position on .

the general year, but in the democratize y i'm definitely endorsing R, F, K, junior in primary.

Okay, voted the demotic. I.

well, public, if I could, i'll do an events. Him.

heart, everybody, I, to all the amazing people who got together for the episode one hundred twenty five, unbelievable, over forty or fifty. And ray, great job.

Shut out to. Ray, shout to, right? I died into a bunch of them in, I think, to europe. And I don't know.

all over the place. No one got rock marked.

hopeful. Ly, I don't know, they in seca is no bear spray in and said.

good have been turned out to marina.

the marina right for the sult of science, the dictator itself and the mouth. And brand and the modern.

We open sources to the fans and .

just got crazy with.

You should all get a room.

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