Warren Buffett, aged 94, has announced a donation of $1.2 billion in Berkshire Hathaway stock to four family foundations. His three children, aged 66 to 71, will gradually distribute his Berkshire holdings. Buffett owns about 14% of Berkshire Hathaway stock, with double that voting power due to super-voting A shares. Over time, the influence of the Buffett children will diminish, but initially, they will effectively control the company. Buffett has decreed that future philanthropic decisions must be unanimous among his children.
Greg Abel, who heads Berkshire Hathaway's non-insurance operations, is the likely successor to Warren Buffett. Abel has been with Berkshire for about 20 years and is well-regarded by Buffett. He is seen as a more hands-on manager compared to Buffett's hands-off approach. Ajit Jain, head of the insurance operations, may retire soon, leading to potential changes in the executive ranks.
Berkshire Hathaway is selling its Apple and Bank of America shares as part of Warren Buffett's increasing caution about the market. Buffett believes the stocks are at record levels and wants to build cash, which now exceeds $300 billion. He may also be concerned about the market outlook and the richly priced Apple stock. Additionally, reducing the Bank of America stake below 10% could avoid regulatory issues.
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, has become the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, owning almost 2% of the total Bitcoin supply, approximately 400,000 coins. The company finances its Bitcoin purchases through equity and debt, including no-yield bonds. As long as MicroStrategy's stock trades richly, it makes sense for the company to issue stock or bonds to buy more Bitcoin. The strategy is to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible.
International stocks have underperformed U.S. stocks by about 20 percentage points this year. There may be better opportunities in markets like Germany, the U.K., Japan, and France, which have struggled recently. The U.S. market dominates globally, but international markets could offer more attractive valuations and growth potential in the coming year.
The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation measure is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation. It is expected to rise 2.3% year-over-year for October, up from 2.1%. The Fed is closely watching this number as it considers future rate cuts. The PCE data will be a key market-moving indicator, reflecting the strength of the economy and inflation trends.
The Buffett Indicator compares the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks to the size of the economy. Currently, the ratio is at a record high, signaling potential overvaluation. The U.S. market dominates globally, with the S&P 500 alone exceeding $50 trillion in market cap. This dominance, combined with low interest rates and globalization, has driven the indicator to historic levels, raising concerns about a potential market bubble.
NVIDIA is expected to remain volatile in the coming year, with potential ups and downs as the market assesses various factors, including competition, valuation, and geopolitical risks like trade relations with China. While the company is dominant in the AI space, the easy money has likely been made, and the stock could face challenges as it transitions to new technologies like Blackwell.
Barron's Senior Managing Editor Lauren R. Rublin and Deputy Editor Ben Levisohn speak with Associate Editor Andrew Bary about the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks.