We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
Government-Proofing Your Portfolio
2025/6/13
Barron's Streetwise
A
Alexis
J
Jack Howe
J
Joseph Davis
M
Mark Haefele
Joseph Davis: 作为Vanguard的全球投资策略主管，我认为人工智能（AI）和美国财政赤字是影响未来投资组合表现的两大关键因素。尽管AI具有巨大的增长潜力，但其对经济的实际影响仍存在不确定性。如果AI未能显著提升经济增长，而美国又未能有效控制财政赤字，那么我们可能会面临一个增长放缓、利率上升和股市表现不佳的局面。因此，投资者需要密切关注这两个因素之间的相互作用，并据此调整其投资策略。我建议适度超配短期固定收益资产，并考虑增加海外投资，以实现投资组合的多元化，降低风险。
Mark Haefele: 作为瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官，我认为投资者应该关注政府的实际支出方向，而不是试图预测政府的政策议程。数字化、脱碳和人口结构变化是推动政府支出的三大主题，投资者可以通过优先考虑这些主题来进行资产配置。我认为，资产配置比选股更为重要，全球配置是大多数投资者的理想选择。同时，我也强调多元化是投资中唯一免费的午餐，投资者应该通过多元化来降低风险，提高投资组合的稳健性。
Deep Dive
This chapter uses the example of two ETFs, MAGA and DEMS, to illustrate that investing based on political affiliation is illogical and often yields poor results. The performance difference is mainly due to industry weightings rather than political ideology.
- Investing based on politics is unreliable.
- ETF performance differences are often due to industry weightings, not political ideology.
- The example of MAGA and DEMS ETFs demonstrates the futility of political stock picking.
Shownotes Transcript