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cover of episode 47. The Big Interview: Phillips O'Brien on Intelligence Leaks, Ukrainian Resolve, and Managing Expectations.

47. The Big Interview: Phillips O'Brien on Intelligence Leaks, Ukrainian Resolve, and Managing Expectations.

2023/5/3
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Phillips O'Brien: 我最近访问了乌克兰，与乌克兰战略研究界、政府和军方人士会面。他们最迫切的需求是弹药，特别是155毫米口径的弹药，以及F-16战机。他们坚信如果获得足够的武器就能赢得战争，但同时也感到疲惫。他们认为这是一场存亡之战，决心打败俄罗斯并加入北约。然而，他们也意识到这场战争的持久性和自身面临的挑战。在谈到五角大楼泄密事件时，O'Brien教授认为其对乌克兰影响不大，因为泄露的信息并非最新情报，而且俄罗斯早已被美国情报机构渗透。关于巴赫穆特的战斗，他认为乌克兰的策略是正确的，其目的是消耗俄军力量，为即将到来的反攻做准备。他认为俄罗斯军队未能从战争中的错误中吸取教训，其作战能力远低于预期。他还分析了对北溪管道爆炸事件的调查结果，认为有确凿证据表明俄罗斯应对事件负责。最后，他谈到了和平谈判的可能性，认为目前俄乌双方都不想要和平，任何和平谈判的倡议都不太可能成功。 Saul David: 作为主持人，David主要负责引导访谈，提出问题，并对O'Brien教授的观点进行总结和评论。他表达了对乌克兰人决心的肯定，并就情报泄露事件、反攻的预期以及西方对俄乌战争的评论声音进行了讨论。

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Professor O'Brien discusses his visit to Ukraine, highlighting the determination and fatigue of Ukrainians, their need for ammunition and F-16s, and their belief in their ability to win the war with proper support.

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Joining Saul to discuss a wide range of topics - from the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage - to Russia's failure to learn from its mistakes, is one of the most incisive commentators on the war - Professor Phillips O’Brien, head of the School of International Relations at the University of St Andrews. 

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Producer: James Hodgson

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