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cover of episode What Trump’s presidency means for banking

What Trump’s presidency means for banking

2024/12/11
logo of podcast Behind the Money

Behind the Money
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
B
Brooke Masters
M
Michael Klimes
O
Ortenca Aliaj
Topics
Michela Tendera: 我主持了此次小组讨论,我们讨论了唐纳德·特朗普第二任期对银行业的影响。 Brooke Masters: 美国银行对特朗普的当选感到高兴,因为他们认为这将带来放松监管,特别是针对银行兼并的限制。这将有利于小型银行寻找合作伙伴,并促进交易。此外,气候相关的监管措施可能会被取消,针对加密货币、托管和外包的更严格规定也可能被取消。巴塞尔协议III的最终版本也可能被修改或取消。 Ortenca Aliaj: 贸易战可能导致通货膨胀和经济问题,对银行产生负面影响。然而,它也可能促使各国生产更多本地商品,并寻找新的贸易路线,这可能为银行创造新的机会。通货膨胀的再次出现是银行面临的另一个重大风险。 Michael Klimes: 特朗普政府可能对信用卡利率进行限制,这将损害许多美国银行的商业模式。不可预测的事件是银行面临的重大风险,这些事件可能对经济造成重大冲击。大规模驱逐出境可能会对美国经济造成负面影响,因为这会减少劳动力,并推高商品和服务的价格。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the reasons behind the positive reaction of US banks to Trump's re-election. The panelists discuss deregulation, the potential increase in deal-making, and the implications for regional banks and mergers.
  • Republicans are generally deregulatory.
  • The Biden administration was seen as heavy-handed in its regulation.
  • Regional bank index shot up 10 percent compared to 3 percent for the S&P 500 overall.
  • Expectation of increased dealmaking, potentially including some opportunistic moves by foreign banks, but unlikely large-scale acquisitions.

Shownotes Transcript

This week, Michela joins live from the FT’s Global Banking Summit in London. She sits down with three reporters and editors to analyse how the banking industry will shape up during Donald Trump’s second term in the White House. She’s joined by the FT’s US financial editor Brooke Masters and banking editor Ortenca Aliaj alongside Michael Klimes, investment banking and capital markets editor at The Banker. They discuss what banks stand to gain and lose, and what the industry may look like four years from now. 

The conversation was recorded on December 3 2024. 

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For further reading:

A Wall Street giddy over Trump should remember history)

In Donald Trump, Wall Street will get what it wanted — and what it did not)

Trump 2.0: winners, losers and Elon)

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Michela recently joined Bluesky, follow her there: @mtindera.bsky.social), Her guests are also on Bluesky: Brooke Masters (@brookeamasters.bsky.social)) and Ortenca Aliaj (@ortenca.bsky.social)), or follow Michael Klimes reporting at FT’s The Banker (@thebanker.bsky.social)) 

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy) for more information.