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imagined closer media. Hello, hi, welcome to Better off line. I'm your host and they try.
For weeks now, i've been writing and speaking about what I believe to be an inevitable and possibly imminent collapse in generate AI. In the last episode, I talked about the early signs of the squire, particularly among investors. We are growing increasingly uncomfortable about the many billions being spent by microsoft, google and others to support an industry that does not appear to make anyone much money and cost so much more than that makes.
And I believe that this is a moment for the taking industry to a tone and to learn and to change in the wake of what I think is in one hundred billion dollar group psychosis, a big nasty I waste that I will now get to in organizing detail, generate F. A. I was always unsustainable, and IT was always dependent on reams of training data that necessary stealing from millions of people with its utility, vae, and its ubiquity over state, the media in the markets of tolerated a technology that, while not inherently bad, was implemented away.
So no, furiously and wastefully that is necessary is theft. Billions of dollars in cash, the double digit percent increase in hyperscore e as emissions, the desperation for the tech industry to have something new has LED to such ruinous success. And if this bubble collapses, it'll be a result of a shared by opie in both big tech dim with its like satcher adeler and sunup is shy and silicon valley power players like read hofman, sam altman, brian cheque and of course, mark and Jason.
The people proper up this bubble no longer experience human problems, and thus I don't think they can be trusted anymore to solve them. Ultimately, this is a story of wasted ignorance and greed, of wasted money and have wasted opportunity. Because, let's face IT, a fraction of the money spent by microsoft, a loan chasing the genre of AI bolshie chine could have been spent in many other in society, useful ways.
And it's a story of take executives that are so desperate to them in the future but is so disconnected from actually building IT. And this arms race is a monument to the lack of curiosity right in the highest ranks of the tech industry. They refuse to do the hard work to create, to be curious, to be excited about the things they're building and the people they're serving.
And so they spent billions of dollars to eliminate the risk they even might have to do any of those things ever again. They just wanted the machine to do IT for them. Had sunup the shy looked at mark soft investment and OpenAI and twenty thousand and no thanks, but you did.
At the matter of of us, by the way, it's likely that none of this would have happened. But a combined hunger for growth and a lack of any natural predators means that big take no longer knows how to make a competitive or useful product, and thus they can only see what their competitors are doing and say, yeah, yeah, that's that's what that is. That's what we're all doing now before the r hype, bom maxara burg was once so disconnecting for matters work on A I that he literally had no idea what break through.
Sundara shared, complimented him on in a meeting they had together mere months before met a zone. Obsession with the A I truly began. And none of these guys seem to have any idea what's going on.
And why are they having these trump little meetings? These aren't competitors, the coke inspirator. They just people meeting to say, what's the latest khan? We're all jumping on.
What's the latest market that we're all gonna monopolize. I can't wait for the monopoly episode. And these companies, they're too large. There are too unwilled that too disconnected, and they do too much.
They lacked the focus that makes a truly competitive business, and they lack any kind of cohesive culture, the kinds that are built on solving real human problems or real business problems that humans have. These are not companies built for anything other than growth. And none of them, not even apple, have built something truly innovative and life changing in the best part of a decade.
With the exception perhaps, that may be contactless mobile payments, which are actually really cool. These companies are run by raw economists, and they have these disconnected, chaotic cultures of these little freedoms. We're established technologies, the rat fuck by management goes when they try to make their products Better instead of making them more money and the depressing things that they really don't need to be that way.
Seriously, there's a world where these companies just make a billion dollars a quarter and they don't even have to fire people every time they do so. And there's one where these companies actually solve real problems too, and then they still make incredibly launch amounts of money for doing so. The problem is the greedy, they run by greedy idiots, and they are addicted to growth and are incapable of doing anything other than following what the last guy did.
And what's funny is this is very jack welch from the shareholders supremacy. They just see a market. And like, what if we put money in that? Can we take the money from the market that all they can do? Now sound of shi is a terrible executive, but he's a really good jack welch clone.
And by the way, if you don't know who jack welch is, please go back to the show, the supremacy episode. It's important because you really need to see who fucked LED this up 不？ okay.
So where were we? What happens next? Well, there's enough money sloshing around right now. The OpenAI probably can be bankrolled a little further.
And and like i've mentioned in the previous episode, IT will need to be, as IT needs, another five lion dollars, if not ten billion dollars, to make IT to the end, twenty, twenty five, that very large amount of monkeys going to have to come from somewhere. And I think that they gonna have be reduced going to the kingdom, sdi arabia or soft bank, probably taking on private debt. And that last one, i'm just really not sure, is gonna happen.
And those suis, they're going to be quite as generous with their terms and they won't give them a devil deal like microsoft did, which, as I previously argued, across multiple news letters and podcasts, effectively owns all of opening is researched and intellectual property sample man is a terrible deal make, by the way. While the venture capital system theoretically could afford to prop up OpenAI for another year or so, they limit in partners who are people funding the they are probably still little soft in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two when massive amounts of money went into nothing, not to mention the sudden n rapid rise in interest rates. And they're probably bulk at the amounts that can need.
We're talking multiple, probably ten hundred million dollars cks or two hundred million dollars cks. OpenAI need so much more money, then the VC system is ready to give to one company and IT really will only take one person blinking to create a panic in both the public and the private markets. OpenAI may still be able to raise money, but investors have no real path of liquidity, as OpenAI most assuredly will not be able to go public.
And in the process of investing, these vcs will likely find out exactly how bad things are there. While there is a chance we get one more around of a dead cat bound situation, it's honestly a little tough to imagine how IT keeps going, even if OpenAI raises another ten billion dollars. But how does the collapse happen? Well, as I said last time, there is the obvious one, OpenAI or anthropic shuts down.
But I think that the shutting down is very unlikely. Based on the corporate structure, OpenAI o anthropic collapsing will be more like the character A I deal an attempt hide the ugly mess where a big tech firm absorbs the in and just goes down. Now, the A I division, you saw a version of this, by the way, when sammon got fired from OpenAI, he was like the head of A I at microsoft, two minutes.
But if I had to guess, anthropic s most likely home would be with amazon, which completed its four billion dollar investment into the company earlier this year and also has a profit share with them. In any case where this happens, even if the entity anthropic a OpenAI keeps going without the key people in power, such as anthropic E O doma going in house, amazon or google again, IT doesn't really matter. They will eventually die.
And raising around for a generate A I company in this market is likely going to be quite difficult, if not impossible. The narrative shifted, and the people with the money to invest don't really know what they talking about, technologically speaking. So they're investing based on how everybody else is feeling, what the vibes are in the air, what they they sniff each other as asses and they so fuck is A I good or bird? Now I don't really know.
And when we really strip away everyone, everything, we strip away all of the the lies in the marketing just get down to incentives. And you think, well, they just want money, right? If that's all they want, that really is just the problem because fundamentally, this tech really isn't that exciting.
I'm sorry, is a generative A I, is not the A I from iron man IT is not the magical future computer is a generative A I that picture of gun field with a gun? Or could we do sitting on top of a rocket? Those aren't useful.
That's not the future. That's just image creation. I'm sure some very insufferable freak is going to email me off this big like when i'm set up generative A I in all of these ways.
May I appreciate your time? Thank you for mAiling me. I'm sure you don't even sound like that. The point i'm not making is that this is useless.
The point of making is IT is not even in the same galaxy of usefulness that IT requires to go forward to be worthy of this money. And on top of that, it's boring. It's so good than boring.
It's so I am so bored. IT doesn't even do my boring business. stop.
I have A P, R business in my day job. I would love IT dink K, A, I to move my shit around. I can't even do that.
I wanted to help me, and I won't do IT. And if you say, ed, your stupid edia, you are more on. You have the brain of a bird or a dog or a dog bird hybrid.
You draw all the time because your brain cannot keep your mouth close. All these things are true, but it's not my job to sell, generate eye to myself. It's the companies. And the idea of a super smart friend that knows everything about me is exciting.
Don't get me wrong, as is the idea of all made a away jury, all of my spread sheet and documents, for example, but generate if A I does not do these things, putting aside any personal feelings I may have, IT does not change my life or even like slightly improved IT. And i'm a guy who loves using tech and he's willing to put hours. Hours into finding solutions, the ultimate or mitigate very small problems that I only really deal with occasionally.
I'm not lazy, i'm efficient least that's what I tell my doctor. And I don't know a single person that is meaningful ly changed their workflow or life as a result of generate AI outside of being able to integrate IT to speed up some part of their already existing system. I've literally never met or spoken to someone over the one guy on twitter who was talked about using this every day in a way that truly changes things.
And I should, as an aside, I do occasionally get someone on twitter and is always a blue check. And they always say, oh yeah, what is changed the way I code sheep? He allows me to code so much faster. They then get eighteen responses of something, think i'm an engineer and this is very unstable and IT really feels like general of a is just can not for the truly insert ous. I don't anna say lazy because so I think everyone is kind of lazy on some level, when you want things to be easier, we really do.
And there is, when IT comes to creativity, a degree where the problems you face, making something on what makes IT, what IT is, the struggles i've had writing and reading the script, or what make me a Better orator or a Better writer. That process is important, but it's hard and it's knowing. And you have to suck a few times.
You have to write crap. You have to retake things three or four times in a poor edit. South, I sit in a good night.
If you read that paraca times, you must the same one up. But it's fun. This is what curiosity is. And I don't think these people have in these people don't want to solve software problems.
They want to type a thing into a computer, he enter, and then the problem is solved, never understanding why they did IT. And this isn't the same thing is calculated by the way i'd arg yourself for development is all but that's a separate thing. And ultimately, this whole movement just doesn't even feel real.
Nothing about IT really feel real. It's just a fast IT costs so much money and it's still costing so much money today. And the promises of our official intelligence will not be kept through the pursuit of generate AI as generate A I is a dead and technology that has peaked and IT costs too much, both financially and socially, to keep IT going or to justify its continued existence.
There's no heroic story here. There are few people who are scarey cheering for these companies to win. Of course, don't have a tangible financial return banking on the value of OpenAI.
Or there are one of the hundred different guys claiming the heaven A I newsletter. And let's be honest, nobody really loves this. Do that.
Nobody really uses ChatGPT and has that oh shit moment you got when you first use my phone, when you first send a file with drop box, those little times when you really fell in love with technology again and again. And there's no magic in IT, there's no winsey. There's no joy in and any of these large language models and then not really helping enough people to make IT worthwhile.
I nearly said they're not helping anybody, but there are users. There are all people who actually care about this. How much do they really care? And does any of that outweight the costs and the environmental damage? The answer is now, by the way, and their pet is always demand that.
We just give him another minute as they burn billions of dollars to get nowhere. And the general public has known the problems and limitations of generate A I for months. I constantly get emails from Better off line listeners, artists, engineers, teachers, machinist, poison makers, journalists, consultants, cleanest and copy editors, all saying the same thing.
This all seems like a crock shit. And the outputs are terrible because people who actually make things respect the output and the production itself, and they can see how bad this stuff is generally, if they are IT was also not pedal as a solution to any problem other than takes lack of a hyper growth market. And it's the kind of bet the only attack industry devoid of natural election truly baLance none of these big take firms.
And I to argue, venture capitalists really take risks anymore because they don't want to end up looking stupid and they want to follow each other. And regular people know they know google is worse, they know facebook is borrowing and unusable. They know the generative A I does not do anything obviously useful at scale and that these companies have never made more money than they are making today as they fuck the customer again and again.
And I believe we're in the beginnings of a true revolt against big tech and they're rotten little promises that looks run out. And these formless private equity vehicles dressed up a software companies are no longer bread to create new things. We're all sitting in staring at innovations corp, stabbed full of holes by mckinsey veterans and slimmy on artists.
And it's time for men like sunder shi an satcher della to a tune because that big bt looks like a dragani waste once. So obviously written from the beginning that they've never been able to tell any anyone that they have never had a plan beyond through money at IT. And eventually IT will do something, or we will do this as long as the other guy does IT too.
This is a big, ugly mess, a monument to the access that burn more than two hundred billion dollars and allowed equally lazy and uncreative people to replace real people with shooting facial ties. That are just good enough. But do you want to be more than good enough? Do you want to excel in all things? Our demand of all my listeners then buy one of the following products, which as usual, will reflect my exact beliefs once and needs.
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And with back, and now that i'm back, I wants to say something to my peace in the media. It's time for a fundamental reevaluation of how we treat big tech, and it's time to question the promises of those who sought to pedal this generative nonsense. It's no longer time to ask max ochberg about his chain.
It's time to ask him how long he intends to burn tens of billions of dollars on nothing and why the website that made him so many billions of dollars is falling apart at the scenes pumping of content created by the big stupid bullshit machine he's helped popularize. It's no longer time to gingerly cool without sun up to show he's looking at my smart phone. It's time to ask him how german I is going to make a profit and what IT is that IT will do impress him again and again and again and again and again until he talks about why google searches so bad.
Now it's no longer time to let sachin adela, associate from referendums, own capitalists in twenty twenty, delaying of tens of thousands of people in twenty twenty three. It's time to ask him if he's prepared to bank rawl open aye, to the tune of the thirty billion dollars, and refuse to leave the conversation without committing to a number. These men have burned hundreds of billions of dollars on a machine that boy likes to make the most media version of the past.
These men are not supporting innovation, their regressive forces who scared to piece off the markets to actually change the world. Domesticated animals that fear no natural predators and thus have no hunger for something new, they proved up, generate A I because they follow us, rather than leaders that are paid hundreds of millions of dollars to empower a nale tic kind of growth capitalism. The dresses up monopoly as disruption.
They have propped up generate A I because building the future is hard and expensive. And in both taking risk and making sure that you have a culture that doesn't expect the answer to a question in the fastest amount of time possible. Innovation is an efficient it's loss IT has indeterminate time scales and requires both capital investment and space required for great people to think of actual solutions.
The problems that involve them talking to and caring about the lives of real people, fire catching the dollar of microsoft. Fire, sound up a shy of google and walk out a way to fire maxara a matter. These men are unworthy.
They do not find any of this exciting or meaningful. They have no curiosity, their private equity guys dressed up as software guys, they are connote st. They are running their products into the ground, and they're making more money than ever.
Big tech has been overcome with nassim. Annalisa and IT must change its ways to not eventually face pediment. I am fucking serious. Do you think these people have a backup plan?
Do you think they're going all of this money on such a mediocre, wasteful solution because they're got other Better ideas? No, they're all out. Big tech does not have another thing.
Google doesn't have any ideas. Matter is so out of ideas that they changed. They named to another worst idea, one sociate with mark zc bug, burning forty five billion dollars for no reason.
In fact, there's a yahoo finance story about the fact that all of that money that legally going to meet us is just organisational loss, is a horribly, I run, the management constantly changes. These are down people. And amazon theyve never really been in the ideas business that the founder of a cloud storage cartel with microsoft, oracle and google, they worked together to set the Prices.
If everyone wins, accept anyone who wasn't them. And big tech is lazy because theyve all agreed to compete only a little bit, never coLoring too far out the lines, because doing so might expose them to an actual risk, like regulation, having to hire people that build new things verses finding increasingly more annoying ways to exploit their current customers. And I really am sure that there's a societal shift coming against big tech, the natural result of years of accessing bulls shit of the loudest people in tech, trying to convince people that a large language model that can generate text and images that kind of suck is basically the same thing as an iphone.
I have no idea how quickly the shift comes, but it's coming. It's inevitable. This lack of big profitable ideas will eventually lead to some sort of reckoning or collapse in big teg healthy, well run companies.
They don't do things like this that learn several different trillion dollar companies, all bumbling in to each level of of the three stogies billions of dollars of cash falling out their pockets. It's an absolute disGrace. I will say, if the A I bubble really does pop, this is a great time to point and laugh.
Regular people like your self could see this was bullshit from the beginning. Most people find generative A I either briefly interesting or somewhat disgusting. And they are capable of seeing that stealing the entire internet so you could spend a hundred billion dollars making a shitty a version of the past is kind of a stupid idea.
The utility really hasn't been there from the beginning. Describing what ChatGPT is is actually kind of difficult. And any technology that's gonna worth trillions of dollars should not have the user saying, why? What does this do exactly? And I really feel like regular people know is this, if this was as magically is is IT was regular people would be lining up to use IT.
And while IT has a lot of users, I don't know anyone who's fanatical over other than A I phonetics is just very sad, but regular people are in the only ones. And I have criticize journalists for missing this, but I want to call some people out in a good way. Economists, analysts and journalists have been saying this isn't the future.
Luck, said. SHE were A V day in march twenty twenty three, three months after the ChatGPT launch, said IT wasn't magic. For example, in the washer ton post share the goat alex countries and Douglas gan reported in August fifteen, twenty twenty three that ChatGPT isn't good enough to take jobs and it's unlikely to cause mass layoffs. The hot takes have run into reality little bit early, but you correct paris Marks called the ChatGPT revolution another take fantasy in july to twenty twenty three, and gary Marcus worried about generate I being a dud in August twenty twenty three.
While this is by no means an exhaustive list, is important to note that people have been saying this, people with big platforms and the markets chose to ignore them as an a side a year later, when many outlets were still tripping over themselves to say that generate of A I was the future sure of the day of the washington post, asked if these chat botts are supposed to be magical, why are so many of them? As Thomas rocks, it's important to call out when a national newspaper actually does the work that needs to be done to critic the powerful good work era open insight to come on the show. At this point, IT seems inevitable that the bubble will burst, that the acceleration has stopped, the funding won't be there, and that the markets taste for the billion of dollars it's gna take to make generate aai some indeterminate level of Better.
Just really isn't there. By all means. Tell me i'm wrong. You certainly do on twitter and you certain ly do on email. And i'd be genuinely intrigued to see how OpenAI regles out of this jam, especially because IT would made they made a meaningful product that makes money when they don't have the chips to train GPT five, a model likely still wouldn't change the game enough to matter.
I mean, what if I have a new architecture, I guess, but I refuse to give them credit for something I haven't done yet. And in the event that open a air anthropic is able to raise again, will see the cycle continue another quarter. I'm confident at which point something crazy would need to happen to make any of this worth.
If these companies can actually raise, we'll keep the bubble inflated, but IT really is borrowed time. There's enough money to fund them both maybe one more time and after that, where is the profit? Where's this going? And it's really worth considering that the narrative is bad and that there is very little that anyone can really do to change IT outside of something truly incredible.
These companies can play for time, hope that satcher a deLance on that pushes stand. Patents say that they have great faith in the process of ai, but I really don't think they get another series of earnings for big tech like this. In many ways, though, this is sam moran's greatest ampt, and so much lies on open a eyes back.
As a result, this is the moment we find out a sam altman is really guy out, whether it's worth agonizing and ringing our hands about how scary he is or whether he's just able to hoodwink and enough credulous billion's that have their hands well did to eternal money printers. Impress me, Samuel. Wake up, sami, mr.
alt. men. Bring me the technology. Show me what you've got. Show me your great works. Show me the works you have buried in that non profit for proper.
You've used to trick other visionless power brokers into giving you their entire futures for a dead and friend best known for an absent tears. And that rankled his peers and some of the stops he was supposed to nurture. Show me what you've got, sam.
Show us all. You are so smart you allegedly can solve problems in a single phone call. Everyone talks about your big brain.
What's the big play? Big guy? You've got maybe six months, and that's the most general estimate i've got.
What is that? What's the plan? Wait, what's that surge? GPT surge GPT.
Sam, you're crazy. You're crazy. mr. Roman, there's no way you can build a google search competence.
Trust me. I know. No, really. I worked with them. I spent a few hours looking up. Google's financial reports have lost decade or so trying to figure out how much the company spends an Operating costs and capital expedit relate IT to search alone due to the way google structures its financials.
I had to make some guesses, some more informed than others, but I record IT cost google about thirty billion dollars a year to run their search product, and that's not taken into account the cost of the general AI powered surge. Summarize, alright, and here we are. So that thirty billion dollars a year to create something that can scale to the size of google search.
And that's just the start. You with me, men, things do not get easier. You see you're not just building a google search competitive with search GPT, as you also have to build the outtake infrastructure to actually make money off of that, which you are not good at.
okay? But you gotta copy features from companies like double, like, which good look wide in two thousand and seven, three point one billion dollars, and pretty much time to pinch the whole Operation. Or maybe you have to build something like edit wards, which google got when IT acquired applied semantics, two thousand and three.
You will need something like both of these, and that's gona cost you in the best light in the best day ever, about three billion. Or you're going to have to outsource IT, which will make IT worse and less profitable because outsource companies are going to take a cut of your revenue, thus reducing gins, which are already really bad. Then you've got to hire experienced personnel and use that ad, take infrastructure.
You build that right to enter a market. Google will use the entire cartel power to kick you out of wait. What was that same? Wait, what? right? right?
You're going to make money and daily more of IT than you spend something. As i've mentioned, you have some issues with, like I said, google search costs an absolute IT on to on thirty billion dollars. easy.
And that's with decades of optimization, a coding language that they invented, thousands of miles of underground cables, and decades of experience in doing a thing you are just leading to do. And I have P. H.
S. Specialized that have been at the company decades. You did all that.
wow. Okay, Simon impressed. You're on a roll. You can do this.
I believe in you, mister altmann. Now just chicken. How many ad sales people do you have? What's that? none. You'll have any ad sales people for your search engine, so you're gonna them.
Google had over thirty thousand and sales people before its last round of layoffs are not going to make this thing profitable without ads. In fact, I don't think, sam, you going to make the search profitable at all. But you know what? May or may not be profitable. One of our advertisers who will soon in vita living room car or are the place you listen to podcast filling of their rivers, they hold their bounty.
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All right, right back and now dispense with the sam alon ben. So when I was looking at up google financials, as I mentioned, I was able to make a few educated guesses. And i've got a hunch that google has about thirty five percent profit margin, which is pretty good.
But that's with over two decades of infrastructure, a near monopoly on the search market. OpenAI has a none of those things. They aren't really on their infrastructure at all, as I mentioned.
And it's gonna relying entirely on GPT, for the most part, which is insanely power and computer intensive and thus cost a lot more. And as i've said a billion times already, GPT, another transformer based architecture is deeply unprofitable, unsustainable. And that's before you even get to the halcyon, the fluctuations that underpin your search engine.
You need to be profitable, which is profitable. Boy, this is really bad for them. Assuming the bulk of the cost associated running google search comes from the vast number of service required to actually power, it's hard to imagine how anything OpenAI does could even ever reach a profit, even if they had the monopoly google has.
Now i'm confident the open a eyes is trying to raise capital right now on the idea that search GPT is able to create a meaningful to the most profitable software business ever made, one that google will likely protect with various monopolistic weapons like a stretcher trover pants. Well, the department of justice did just declare that google are monopolies of the search market. And okay to that in an upcoming an episode, IT will take years for things to move on that front.
And nothing about this situation fixes any of open a problems. On top of that, google spends, as I previously mentioned, billions of dollars and hardware in property and OpenAI would likely have to build the infrastructure, the dorce, even the outlays of generate eye to scale, a search engine that could handle even hundreds of millions that alone on the billions of people that use google search, IT could get microsoft to build or lease IT from the likes of oracle, and microsoft could probably pay for IT too. But that would be another massive prison capital expenditure, the time when the markets are waiting for the stuff to make money rather than the comply to spend more money on them.
And I also should note, the microsoft recently described OpenAI as a competitor in the search business, and it's unlikely to kill being which is being profitable since two thousand sixteen. Let's beyond slow. This is all fan fection.
OpenAI isn't competing with google search. IT would cost too much money, and the underlying technologies is neither good enough nor efficient enough to actually support a search and in its scale. And even if IT was, is IT Better? Probably not.
What about ChatGPT says that it's going to be more reliable than google search? And god, all of this is such a boring fuck and fast. We're not watching startups mess around silicon valley experiment in ways to fix weird problems.
We're watching big tech outsource their research and development costs to one of a few hand selected gone ice that they will dropped the second that wall straight gets P. C. Why even pretend anymore thropps is prop top by google and amazon or invested billion of dollars in cloud credits.
Microsoft props up OpenAI to the point the invidia chips crisis effect today, because daddy microsoft is buying them for OpenAI to use. And google, amazon, microsoft are all making their own models to the point that microsoft has already reported. Luka said that they see open a eyes as a competitor.
It's just it's just also craven big tech funded a cloud dependent product, the cost so much more than anything else in the market based on a spacious hype about what artificial intelligence could or could not do. They do so as a means of selling a new product, one that, while not particularly useful, also means that they can charge a lot for the cloud compute service. IT runs on creating demand for a product that pays the money just for existing, allowing them to vastly expand their physical data and allocations, further enforcing them in a police over the cloud storage industry.
Microsoft, google or meta and amazon created a new way to turn money into more money. Investing in to take that requires you to pay them all a lot of money for cloud computing services to an unlock, a said. The problem that seems was that none of them, we're willing to consider a world where this stuff never really turned into anything remarkable other than its waste and a lack of creativity.
In the toledo towers of the value in redmond has allowed the Richard's men in the industry to become ned by a snake oil machine that loses billion of billions of dollars. To be clear, there's nothing wrong on its face inherently with generate A I IT does interesting things with documents, and I fully believe they'll be some low five version of generative A I that plugs around silently once the hyper scale is pissed off. My problem is that it's so horribly to put all of this money into these large language models, the ones that steal everything that require so much energy creates a little in return.
Now, the reason I brought up previously the whole calculation of OpenAI needing five to ten million dollars to survive, because I wanted to make IT clear how expensive them staying in places, that is, the money they will need to continue building the thing they are doing today. They don't have anything in reserve. I am confident about that.
Maybe they can survive, maybe they can surprise me, maybe that can happen, but I just don't really see that happening. Great broke man gonna, I mean, he's just another on nal guy. What onna happy? Think maybe more is going to come up something you think sorrow is gna do IT, no, they don't have anything.
And I realize it's so strange to say this, especially if you, you remember of the media, listen to this. And I was strange to accept this. But what if they just full of here? What if this is the best we've gone? How do we deal with this? And I think we start by accepting that all of this was completely and uttley ridiculous.
We live incredible times. We had a boiling point in the tech industry y's history where these signs of excess and this total lack of vision of cripple, big texian ly to make new things, things have been too easy to comfortable and too frictionless for too long for people like Sarah shine, sin adella and even people like Larry patient surgical. Brin, with the only two people who can fire standard from google take, needs to go back to creating interesting and cool things and having companies run by people that actually care about building them.
Technology is capable of solving real problems, or at least IT has been in the past and proven time and time again how profitable IT can be to do so. And I believe I can do just fine without having four or five companies that do every single thing that technology can do at the same time in hopes that they can monopolize IT. I don't think the most powerful people and take, realize how frustrated people are, how deeply affected by technology everyone is, even those who don't identify as technology or enthusiasts.
And I think men like sunder p. Shi and saatchi adeler are deeply unaware of how ready people offer a change, how discussed that they are about the catering quality of the average take product at a time when executives have never been richer. Regular consumers know that google search socks, they know that facebook sucks.
They know that websites are worse that they visit. So once this eighteen pop ups in your phones really hard, they know that their iphones are randomly trying to make them buy apple news, and they know that there are people responsible to me. Cook A D, Q.
Apple, by the way, welcome to come on the show. But guys, stop trying to. Apple, make me less.
I have to message. But moving on, there are real targets, said, there are people that need to go to fix things. Sd, shine, sai della must go.
They are no longer trust what the students of the future of inspired hundreds of billions of dollars of waste and hearts are equally mayo pic competitors. These men do not care about their customers. They don't fear competition.
And the government should break every single hyper scale up. Google, meta, amazon, apple, oracle, all of them, and find ways to stop them ever growing so large in the future. Maybe we shouldn't have such large tech companies.
Maybe we don't need multiple trillion dollar jugg on to do everything in a shitty way. Maybe we don't need companies that do online advertising and also provide a platform because that kind of monopoly leads to insane incentives like you're seeing with google search and facebook. And we all deserve Better.
And the way to get there is to say the names of those responsible to document a disGraceful acts and call for accountability again and again and again and again, until something actually happens in changes and IT is changing, the narrative is changing. And soon that will shift more aggressively and more violence against big tech. And I think this is a great thing for the world and ultimately to take industry at large.
Now as we see the bubble, the A I bubble, collapse, and must be clear, none of this is a Victory lap for me. This is not actually how I wish this went. I wish this couple of burst earlier IT would, of course, less harm to the environment, to the markets, to the free anc's, and lose their jobs to the artist.
Email me every week. IT would wasted less money, taking less attention away from the rest of the industry, and allowed sam altman to accumulate less money and power. Instead, this bubble has been allowed to swell. So launch that IT will only emphasize how the ref tive ideas big tech has become, and the consequences are a growing distant against tech from the general public. And this era was ultimately the result of a lack of fear in the hunts of big tech and deeply held belief that their positions were permanent and their customers were trapped.
My purpose, documenting this and what feels at times like narrating the end of the world and not looking to be a panda or a talk in in head, or a person who wants to be given credit for calling count the bubble, is none of these serve you, the customer, the listener or history itself. What I say maybe in perfect, but IT exists to try and give you a clear understanding of what's happening. Yes, it's a little emotionally charged and very clear in its biases.
I believe that the tech industry has lost its love and curiosity, and I find that disgusting. And the best way to fight back is the studies. They explain things as they happen, from my perspective at length, but with, I hope, a clarity that doesn't require a ton of technical knowledge as things of accelerating become a little more inro's cate about the role of my podcast, my newsroom and my posts.
I don't have a particularly profound conclusion. Other than that, I believe that I have a brevity and clarity about the second industry. The many down and I also find that i'm extremely ly fast at writing and I also find this all very interesting because of a horrible little goblin and I don't talk for nearly two hours or right thousands of words because I desperately leave the attention, which I do love.
I do IT for the thrill. I'd like covering this stuff. And because if I don't see these things out loud, the cats in my brain will eventually try and emerge.
But seriously though, I do these things, I need to, this is important to me. Maybe i'm fighting back. Maybe I just like crying. I don't really know. This is me processing, watching an industry I care deeply about get ransacked again and again by people who don't seem to actually care about technology.
The internet made me who I am, connecting me, and in many cases, introducing me to the people I hold dear to my heart, and let me run a successful P. R. business.
Despite having a learning disability, despite the errors is called in america, development to coordination disorder that makes IT difficult for me to write words with a pen and thrive. Despite being regularly told in secondary school that I wouldn't amount too much, any of you less, then I fuck herself. I believe that there are many, many, many people that have been allowed to live Better, full or more meaningful lives as a result of technology.
And I believe that the people who built the tools that allowed them to do so no longer control the future. And that makes me really fucked and annoyed. I refused to watch this bullet happened in silence.
And I encourage you, as I have before, to fill social media and conversations with the names of those responsible section, a delay of microsoft, sound up a shy of google, max ZARA burg of meta, andy Jessie of amazon, saml of a ated, kins mirra C. T. O of OpenAI and read hofman, the venture capitalist who seems to always benefit over the next bullshit machine, or responsible for this echoing nyl ism that created the general of a IBM.
All of these people will be fine, by the way, when this collapses, all of these people will be just fine. Multibillionaire will be just fine. But the people won't be are the people they will lay off. The people have invested and lost money in these things.
The people that may have even come to rely on ChatGPT in some small way who won't be able to afford IT when IT goes tits up or gets jacked up Price wise because that's the only way to make IT affordable for the company. Or maybe all of this just disappears in these customers. Left with nothing. But sometimes I understand you might feel little domed, the dome, or in you. Someone recently called me a douma, which really pissed me off because i'm not i'm angry and I know some of you might be too.
I won't say you're angry that isn't fair but based on the emails again, st, some of you seem pretty pissed and i'm not speaking for you here, but I may agree because I know that tech can be cool and Better and more interesting, that there are real problems of poverty and climate change, of the myriad systems that don't connect very well on every laptop and phone ways, that things can be Better, problems that can be solved. But right now they need to put tens of billions of dollars into generate A I, come on, man, we can do Better than this. And while there might be little you can do to them directly, I encourage you to say these names to your friends on social media.
Proper aga reg van, remember him from google, tell people all about him too. I encourage you to let anybody and everybody you know know who's responsible for this. Because ultimately, what may pop the AI bubble is a narrative, a narratives shift. And narratives are shifted by word of mouth. And they shift because of people like you and like me who never shut up.
Thank you for listening to battle offline. The editorial composer of the Better offline theme song is matter sales cape. You can check out more of his music and audio projects.
A meta salty dot com M A T T O S O W S K I dot com, you can email me are easy at Better off line 点 com or visit Better off line 点 com to find more podcast links。 And of course, my newsletter, I also really recommend you go to chat that with your ed, or at to visit the discord and go to ask lash betroth line to check out our read IT. Thank you so much for listening. Better off line is a production of coal zone media. For more from coal zone media, visit our website, calls on me, get a dot com, or check us out on the I heart radio up apple podcast or whatever you get your podcast.
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