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In the next two episodes, I want to present you with a theory about why they take industry is felt so weird for the last few years and why there are so many products that have popped up that don't seem to really do anything or be thinks the people have actually answer for. And IT comes down to a few simple questions.
G film, what if the next big thing in take is actually years or decades 之外? What if the era of hyper growth in tech is over? As I mentioned before, I believe the raw economy is to blame for a love. This is a growth at all cost mindset that sits at the core of pretty much everything i've written or spoken about.
It's this force that draws businesses to grow bigger rather than Better, make products to conquer markets and show growth to the public markets rather than fixing a problem that you are I might have or a business might have or provide a necessary service that was nevertheless the pillar and profitable. And the world economy doesn't feel like any other economic period i've seen. It's not like say, I know post two thousand and eight financial crisis or that stagnation that linked IT afterwards.
And once different was there isn't really a single obvious event that started the decline of the services were using or the companies that make them. And there's not really like a leman brothers creator. We can point out and say they go.
That's the thing. The closest stuck can come is kind of F T X, which was the big crypto crash, the big massive ponzi game that no one really so coming other than many people who are looking behind the scenes. But other than that, that was kind of what crushed crypto.
And maybe IT was the end of the zero interest three year where interest rates went up and IT was harder to get money. But that was no one thing you could point out. But I do want to to try, and I have one airport, C, I think for when the raw economy kind of took over and at one a point to the last point of the twenty tens, think about IT, like really think about IT for a second.
Sometime after twenty nineteen, the taking the street can lost its zeal. There were new gadget, there were new ads, new services, but take, start to feel iterative rather than innovative. Yet they were making more money than ever.
And by twenty twenty one, even the pretense of any gradual improvement was really dropped. I felt like I don't know. They were trying to sell list things that didn't really exist. We were told that nfs would replace physical, tangible collectibles and the crypt to currency would replace regular money.
Will also immanent pate customers and unstoppable market force like inflation or big tech because, of course, script currency came with a the idea and I mean idea of the central software. And this was all meant to get rid of rent seeking middle men that were taking parts of every purchase despite the very same middle men investing in crypt or currency. Yet the actual services that came out of these movements didn't really seem to do anything or improve our lives in any meaningful way.
And we were told at one point that our futures were in the meet of us, and we d lived in this massive, interconnected coach new internet. When we actually got there, IT was just this really one key V R virtual reality space that mark zuck burg is somehow burned thirty billion dollars on. It's also weird.
And today we're told that we have this glorious AI powered future that's just imminent. Yet what we've actually got is this unprofitable, unsustainable or generate AI that has this horrible, unassailable problem of fluctuation. Rit spits out incorrect to information authority timely, which worrying ly google CEO under phair has said in an interview of the verge, is an inherent feature of a technology that he's now pack into google search, which means it's generating these horrible answers.
The queries based on the links of a search engine that sound up a shy has helped decay. It's all just very frustrating and it's also quite useless, kind of illogical too. And at the forefront of this A I boom is sam altman and his eighty billion dollar jorgen or OpenAI, a company that claims it's going to build artificial general intelligence.
One, the experience is human like cognition, an which is just not possible with generate AI. The tech he is selling today is not going to give us agi. I just want to be abundantly clear about that. Any time you read sam moon talking about A G I, he is talking about tech. The OpenAI does not have and is not building.
They may claim the building IT behind the scenes, but they're only working on generate if A I and the frustration you hear in my voice, you might affect yourself, you might not have, but it's this prevAiling sense of you keep telling me the future is here. But when I look at what the future is, IT isn't even close and the products you're selling me, i'm actually useful. Let me give you another example.
Windows laptops will soon integrate and A I powered search feature called recall that allows you to search everything you've ever done on your computer in the last three months. And IT does so by recording everything, everything from the meetings you've been into to the things you've written. I should be clear.
I don't think anybody actually asked for a future like this. And it's also inherently invasive. IT directly encroaches on your privacy, in your security.
And IT takes screen shots of your machine every few seconds and stores them along with A, I generate inferences in a locally held database. This isn't good, and the fact that they're not sending anywhere doesn't really make IT Better. IT is, in essence, a preinstalled screen, the kind of thing that hacky install on a victim's computer. And if an attack gains access to IT, it's obvious how catastrophe the ramifications are.
Or let's be honest, domestic abuse people at work, there are people who can get on your computer force access by forcing you or just getting your password, and they can now see everything you've done, despite this being an inherently A I power of feature IT just, I can't distinguish between irregular computer usage and say, sensitive information, passwords, health information, trade secrets, the very obvious stuff you would not want your computer recording IT treats like an email from your doctor with the same level of concern and copying as IT would like youtube or a chat conversation. It's just really bad. And already why IT has security researchers.
They've create a proof concept, nowa applications that can pull sensitive data obtained or generated by microsoft, your computer and with pretty minimal effort. And now the U. K, S. Information commissioner office, the nation's privacy watchdog, by the way, they can actually do quite steep fines. It's not great.
They are now pRobing whether the attack actually presents an unacceptable risk of consumers, which is anyone who thinks about IT for more than twelve seconds or even five can confirm IT does. It's just very frustrating. And who asked for this? Who actually asked for this?
Now every major take company, they're integrating A I into their products and services underneath the hood. The A I integrating doesn't actually seem to do anything new, will generate a profit or solve anyone's actual needs. Even the companies themselves seem incapable of explain why A I is such a big deal.
To the point, the microsoft superb commercial for A I powered copilot assistance featured multiple things that I cannot do, like generate the code for an open world game when you buy the way you type in the prompt, which in the commercial list 3, generate the code for open world 3d game and you type that in。 And I will give you a list of things you should do to build a an open world game. It's so strange, and it's so strange how so many of these companies just can't really explain why this is the next best thing I just need you to believe, and maybe that might actually be the problem.
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For decades, the tech industry in its various venture capital founders, they've been remarkably good at coming up with both innovate new products and ways to turn them into huge new markets for hyper growth, hundred billion, trillion dollar markets that they get them sell in to investing companies within actual industries.
He had search engine, digital maps, smart phones and apps, social media, cloud computing, suffered as a service elector, cars, streaming audio, video. And also another thing, in the period between two thousand and five and twenty twenty four, we've triple to the amount of people in the internet. Now over five billion people use IT.
And that's also another problem will get to. And a little bit, there were obvious meaningful markets to move into wates to connect people, ways to get people content. They wanted algorithms to present IT to them, waste to sell people, things that solve problems that they had, or either for the first time or solving them faster, like the transition from physical to digital media, and problems that were both important to solve and actually solve, take has perpetually succeeded.
Building things, new things that needed create these new markets. And they're been incentivize by both the public and private markets in growing these companies as fast and as big as possible to dominate these new markets with the assumption that would always be more of them, more massive, multibillion and multi trillion dollar markets to conquer. And I must be clear, you should never ask you anything.
Between twenty and twenty two and twenty twenty three, only one hundred million additional people got online, which is the slowest rate of growth in the last eighteen years. And that's not because the need to bring connectivity to the masses is actually solved, especially in the global south. IT hasn't been.
And as of the most recent figures from the U. S. International telecoms union shows thirty three percent of the world's population, or that two points, six billion people have never actually used the internet. But I have more worrying stuff. I've received some data from similar web that shows that the majority of the internet top one hundred web properties have seen significant declines in traffic since twenty one.
In the years since the world slowly emerged from lock down, google doc commercy of decline of five point three percent in web visits, as as youtube, which lost three point eight percent of its traffic, facebook, which lost a remarkable twenty seven point seven percent, twitter, which lost three point five percent, and amazon, which lost seven point six percent, twitch dot T V, seventeen point five percent lost that they are on by amazon, sadly. Wikipedia, which lost twenty four point eight percent of this traffic, and is the thing that really worried me. Porn sites like x videos, twenty seven point four percent loss.
And point hub, seventeen point one percent loss. When the pounds down, that's that's when you start worrying that you might be tempted to dismiss this all as a result of life returning to Normal in the tradition of office base environments and particularly conducive to a crafty mid dayanand, you shouldn't the trend actually began earlier with similar web data shown the decline starting in twenty nineteen. My analysis focuses on twenty twenty one to twenty twenty four because that's the one I have the most detailed months by months in, year by year breakdancing.
And by the way, i'm gonna put in the episode notes, links two things that you can all see. This, I want you to know, this state is very worrying. But don't trust me, trust the data from similar web. When you look at the trajectory of the web's most valuable properties on a year over a year basis, things look quite bleak.
E with google, which lost that point nine percent, youtube lost about four point four percent, facebook, seven point seven percent lost, twitter, six point two percent loss, twitch, seven point nine percent loss and amazon, two point seven percent loss, all still seeing significant declines. Only a few sites like redit, which saw a thirty one point three percent growth, tiktok, seven point six percent growth and instagram, nine point nine percent growth, but trending down every year since two thousand and also linked in up seventeen point nine percent that are the only ones are really seeing good year of a year growth. And while it's important to note that these are visits rather than active users, and in fairness, this data only covers visits way through a braza rather'n APP, this is still a truly astounding trend that suggests, for the most part, that the web lot platforms are seeing kind of a digital recession.
While there might be revenue coming to these companies, they might still be acquiring no users. There's really no good way to spin the fact that traffic to platforms like amazon, google has pluto then declined. Something shifting downwards is been doing so since twenty nine.
Perhaps this explains why platforms like google and facebook of kept making changes to make each user journey create more engagement and make IT more profitable to sustain growth. Because you are people than ever actually visiting the platforms. I believe at the end of something I called the rot com boom, the tech industry's hyper growth cycle. But there were so many new lands to conquer, so many new wae to pay money to, so many new innovative, useful ideas that IT felt like every tech company could experience perpetual growth just by throwing money at a problem. He also explains why so many take products, youtube, google search, facebook, and someone feel like there are the trapped in Amber, or like they have got tangibly worse.
Because when you think about IT, when there's no incentive to improve the things you've already built, why would you you should just be working on the next big thing or new ways to produce the thing you have right now to keep people coming back now maybe, but to keep people on the platform, sometimes by monopolizing an industry that they have nowhere else to go. And that's the thing. All of these companies, facebook, go goal, amazon, I mean, all of them, i've all built themselves on this very simple idea that they'd always be the next big thing.
And i'm not even saying that they won't be, but theyve assumed. And the problem that they're facing right now is that they would always be one around the corner. This belief, the exponential growth is not just the reasonable expectation, but a requirement, is central to the core of the rotten attack industry.
And as these were, practice demands run into reality. Sorry, I to say that the rock com bubble is gonna flight. And as we speak, the tech industry, they grappling with somewhat of a midlife crisis, and they are desperately searching for that next hyper growth market and eagerly pushing customers and businesses to adopt this technology that nobody actually asked for. They must keep the raw economy alive because if they don't, they are going to have to face the fact that they've built pretty unsustainable businesses even though they're profitable, even though they keep growing. The only thing that grows forever is cancer.
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The raw economy and takes growth last IT isn't new though venture capital has been incentivising a monolithic rock for over a decade. A mark Andrews advocate in twenty eleven that we should look to expand the number of innovative new software companies created rather than constantly questioning their valuations. Yet just a year earlier, in much twenty ten, is partner ben horror advocated for fat startups.
Now link to that in the notes, saying that you can't save your way to winning the market and that start up pergamo is when you don't go bankrupt, but you're fail to build the number one product in the space and have zero chance of becoming a high growth company. Which, by the way, horis describe this, says a worse than start up hell because you are, and I coach, stuck with the small company even if it's cash flow positive at the time. This might have made sense to them because this mindset made them quite rich, even though there's something inherently abNormal about describing being a stable, profitable company as being in a state that's worse than hell.
Anyway, I want you to take a step back in time with me now and think about how much is changed in the last ten years, fifteen years. Think about IT for a second. In twenty ten, IT felt like we were just making our first steps into the digital world.
IT was still pretty new. Twenty ten, there was no instagram t, there was no zoom, no snapp chat, no lift, no tinder, no slack, no snowflake, no door dh, no tiktok, no, no coin base, no Robin hood. And there wasn't any vee, was there either?
Tesla, facebook linked in abb ba, oba square, alasia xr MongoDB work by palter networks assign U. I path spotify they have even gone public. Instagram was still independently, wasn't part of facebook yeah and consumer drones, they don't reach ubiquity.
Voice assistants hadn't even been launched full G, L, T. networks. They were brand new. And amazon web services, one of the most profitable things in the world, as i'll get to, was on course to make six hundred million dollars in revenue in twenty ten, which is, by the way, two point five percent of the twenty four billion A W S. On its own, made in the first score of twenty twenty four.
Google and apple stock Prices were worth less than a tenth of what they are to stay in n video. A K. Now worth over a thousand dollars, traded IT under three dollars a share between two thousand and five and two thousand and eighteen. We saw this incredible surge of innovation and take valuations and this kind of seemingly unstoppable period of growth and big, sexy ideas that create big, sexy and new markets.
While applications existed in two thousand and eight, apple's APP store and the perpetual nature of connection that we get from smart phones, IT, consumer ized, the concept of distinct service based apps as well as the overall concept of software eco systems, which has become a multi trillion dollar philosophical and economic force. And it's changed just about everything about how we communicate and even do business. It's remarkable and also was a new market just sitting there waiting for the hardware and software to catch up with the end for someone to come up with.
The idea, of course, connecting people digitally through social media, voice, video and so on is being central to the hypocrites cycle with innovations like connectivity and cloud infrastructure, allowing multiple companies to carve out these hundred billion and trillion dollar ecosystems. On some level, big tech companies could put money through research and development and investment and or acquisitions, whatever they needed to, as a means of making the future reality. And thanks to the effect that interest rates rock bottom, there was a lot of private money going into startup.
S. S they were never really sure of cash to do so. At some point, I began to outpace innovation. And while there were new ideas, the actual fundamental technology required to actually innovate may not actually exist, making a lot of these ideas theoretical and so far behind the cart that you may as well shoot the horse dead.
When mark ark burg, we named facebook to matter, he told case in un, who buy the way should feel nothing but shame for accepting this in good faith, that he believed the metaverse was an embodied internet that was a persistent synchronous environment that would resemble social, but also be an environment where you're embodied in IT. It's that's a real quote, by the way. This is, of course, total nonsense, total word salad that will make you throw up, conjured up by somebody without any real ideas that knows that they won't receive any push back on the, anyway, not even from those whose bodies to scrutinize the tech industry and asked a difficult question so that people don't buy stupid shit anyway.
What socket book had actually built by, which for the most part, I mean acquired, was a half virtual world access through niche virtual reality technology that nobody asked for, that already kind of existed, that made people sick and the meta actually build. And what Marks ochberg wanted to do was built the successor to the mobile international, in the hopes that quote of the metius would be another hyper growth industry where people would buy land which they didn't, or hang out on mass, which they didn't, or have meetings, which they did not, all while sharing data and watching ads served by meter. And other companies that matter could sell ads to in the cynical, horrible version of the future, the internet neutral standards based drop by no single company would be transformed into a platform, a federal system where meta would set the rules and exacta car from each engagement, interaction and transaction.
IT was quite plainly a power grab, the likes of which the internet hasn't seen since the bleak days of internet. Explore r six and active ex. And if you don't know what microsoft has to eval things in the past, the tech, however, I was never there.
Max ochberg sold everybody on the concept of a ready player. One met to us. And putting aside for a second, that ready player one is a poorly written dystopia.
A this vision hinges heavily on the idea of technology that completely immerse the user and their senses and makes them feel like they actually in a world which is just insane. If it's not possible, it's not even close to possible. We're talking about full sensory takeover and the ability to reverse the digital world somehow without moving.
This would be a revolution, both in cloud computing, because just the raw data would be insane, but also immersive technology. Just what was everyone doing accepting this idea? And let's be honest, the reality was just so much worse.
You had these nosier inducing headsets that let you into this horrible clunk y cartoon world that wasn't fun or practical or useful. And tens of billions of dollars of R N D costs developing headsets that lose money on every sale. It's just insane.
By the way, mox arco has spent ten of billion of dollars really. Sometimes people don't lock IT when to get yelly, and I apologize. But where has the thirty billion dollars gone? What has mox talk about done with IT? Where is IT going? I done, know i'm not accusing anyone of anything, but the whole thing just feels like a con and sucked.
Berg glossy metaverse video, the first one published when they returned facebook to matter. IT was significant in quite a few ways. First of all, the most disgusting bulcher i've ever seen a tech company put out just complete lies.
But IT was also a demonstration of the company's future ambitions and directions. And IT showed exactly what they hoped they could build. And had buckberg actually done so, I would say that would have been a success, but said success would have been predicated on th Epace o f i nnovation t hat w e h aven't h ad i n o ver a d ecade o r l onger.
I don't actually know how we get to anything close to what Marks about selling, but four billion dollars later, the metaverse is just nowhere near close to existing. And yet he keeps burning cash in the hopes that you can get just one more hit of hyper growth, man, as all Marks OK up these, just one more head brother scheme, a little more growth opp. OK as where I won't need any in the future put in that inside.
I really think this is why zuker g is so full force on generate AI. He shifted into every men a platform now regardless less of whether IT doesn't thing useful, whether it's doing anything weird like commenting on a parenting group that IT has a gifted child and telling parents we had to take the kids it's just so weird. And it's the same reason that sundara shine is read a forcing, generate A I into google search even as IT misinformed customers.
And it's recommending people put glue on a pizon, eat rocks and is climbing the our obama is a muslim and regulatory stories from the onion as in dispute fact. And it's just it's very frustrating. You can hear IT in my voice, but IT all comes down to a simple problem, which is the tech industries is getting withdraw symptoms that realizing there might not be any massive new markets, they might not be another way to create another billion dollar ARM of a trillion dollar enterprise.
And on some level, I believe that the industry wide alignment around this unprofitable, unsustainable A I tour is just proof that they're getting desperate and that some of them might be irradiated, ably washed. Why else would sam altman spend most of the time talking about what A I might do? Why else with sam Allen talk so often about building artificial general intelligence? A thing that, as I have mentioned, is totally and actually impossible to build with any of the general avi tech his company makes unlikely, requires kinds of computing that do not exist yet.
It's really frustrating. And the road com bubble bursting is it's gonna be nasty a bit tech. It's gonna wash out at least one of these companies and IT might take years to happen, but the growth trend is reversing.
Every single one of these companies, with a few exceptions, I realize is seeing traffic declines and they're not improving. Perhaps they will find new ways, but where are they? Gonna find them. What are the things they are going to do? What happens when none of this stuff actually is the future?
What happens when google search tell tells someone to actually do something that kills them? How to clean up a chemical fire incorrectly, for example? There were very real ways that these things are going to hurt people. But putting that aside, even if they don't, they're not gonna make them the kind of money and get them the kind of customers that they need to perpetual show, perpetual growth.
As I said last episode, two episodes ago, facebook is dying and facebook's dying, because I actually believe maxara begue is quite innovative about one thing, which is he can smell blood in the water, except now he can smell his, I think mox oc berg realized that this was happening many years before everybody else. And that's why he pushed the met of us in two and one. That's why he was talking about web three and twenty one.
That was a very, very easy year to get money. And IT was a year when people were aggressively buying things. So IT was a great time to sell new ideas. Also, I think you ready, ready play one actually like that, which is so strange.
But either way, I do think the box an innovator because he's realized that the hyper growth era is over and he's really trying to create the next best thing now. Now is I didn't say something good or something useful. That's just not in socker G D N A, and it's not in under picture sample mono such a dellis either.
Microsoft, amazon matter. These companies not innovative anymore because they are no longer engineer to be when the living was free and easy, when there were tons of these markets to attack and grow and eat shit out the other way and make money from. They just needed a management consulting mindset.
IT was growth at all cost. IT was growth all the time, because all they had to do was thrown more money at the problem. And I always keep growing until they credit they have been.
But mark my words, they're not going to grow forever. And they don't have a next trick. They don't have the next one billion user product.
They don't have the next innovation. And I don't think they're na have IT for a long time. And this is why all of this stuff feels kind of weird.
It's why all of this stuff doesn't seem to be solving a need that you are I have or they even a business has. And it's why so often IT feels like they're pleading with us to believe that this is the future. Companies that build useful things that people need don't need to talk about what they are build in the future.
You can see IT in the things they are selling you today. You could see in the early days of cloud computing how you be a restorage like drop box or box might have existed. I was seen neft.
Thank thank god for drop box on esty. But seriously, you could see why these things were the future. And in the next episode, i'm going to walk you through how the tech injust freeze promises. No, I actually seem to match the ability to build things and how this desperation i've been discussing shows that were close to the rock on bubble bursting. Thanks for listening.
Thank you for listening to Better off offline. The editor um composer of the battery off line theme song is matter sales I you can check out more of his music and audio projects a meta salesi dot com M A T T O S O W S K I dot com, you can email me are easy at Better off line 点 com or visit Better off line 点 com to find more podcast links and of course my newsletter。
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