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cover of episode Nvidia Delivers Solid Earnings; Musk Distances Himself From DC

Nvidia Delivers Solid Earnings; Musk Distances Himself From DC

2025/5/28
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Bloomberg Businessweek
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E
Elon Musk
以长期主义为指导，推动太空探索、电动汽车和可再生能源革命的企业家和创新者。
E
Emily Graffeo
J
Jay Goldberg
技术分析师和评论家，专注于半导体和技术行业的财务表现和市场策略。
M
Max Chafkin
V
Vildana Hajric
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Jay Goldberg：我认为英伟达的增长空间有限，下行风险仍然存在。英伟达虽然是一家好公司，运营良好，但发展太快，可能无法保持过去三年的增长速度，并且面临越来越多的阻力。我对人工智能的长期发展存在不确定性，现在人们开始质疑大规模GPU投资的回报。ChatGPT是一项了不起的技术成就，但尚未完全改变人们的日常生活。对于普通人来说，ChatGPT的用处还不太明显。我认为人工智能的潜力远不止于此，只有出现更令人兴奋的应用时，它才能真正腾飞。我怀疑现在还有多少需求。我想知道为什么没有人购买H20产品，以及人们是否暂停评估人工智能的用途。即使英伟达的股票上涨了很多，我仍然坚持我的卖出评级。英伟达的CEO是一位出色的营销人员，但他所说的内容仍然有很多疑问。在中国，美国政府的政策变化莫测，这是一个很大的不确定因素，但长期来看，我对人工智能的需求以及未来的发展方向存在疑问。人工智能在降低成本方面有帮助，但这并不足以证明英伟达持续增长所需的巨额投资是合理的。我是一个技术乐观主义者，人工智能会对劳动力市场造成 disruption，但长期来看也会带来新的机会。某些工作会受到挑战，但经济仍将继续增长，我们应该找到利用这些工具做新事情的方法。现在谈论人工智能的巨大影响还为时过早，因为我们日常使用的东西还没有完全到位。我们尚未真正掌握人工智能的全部潜力以及它将要做的事情。如果英伟达失去市场份额，那么它的客户，如超大规模企业、微软和谷歌，将从中受益，而博通将通过帮助这些企业将芯片推向市场而赚取大量资金。我认为谷歌的TPU已经非常出色，其他公司也将开始看到它的好处并效仿。我认为超大规模企业仍然有很大的需求，沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和科威特等海湾国家也在建设大量数据中心。我想知道明年资本支出是否还能维持在目前的水平。我认为英伟达的关键领域是推理计算和机器人技术。我认为英伟达在模型构建的训练方面占据主导地位，但推理问题仍然悬而未决。当我们与人工智能互动时，这些芯片在哪里？是在我们的手机里还是在数据中心里？

Deep Dive

Chapters
Nvidia's Q1 2024 earnings are analyzed, revealing a mixed bag of results. While revenue exceeded expectations, EPS and gross margin fell short. The impact of export controls on revenue from China is discussed, along with the company's upbeat forecast for Q2.
  • Q1 adjusted EPS of 81 cents (missed estimates of 93 cents)
  • Q1 revenue of $44.1 billion (beat estimates of $43.29 billion)
  • Q2 revenue forecast of $45 billion +/- 2%
  • $8 billion in lost H20 revenue due to export controls

Shownotes Transcript

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Nvidia Corp., the world’s most valuable chipmaker, gave an upbeat revenue forecast for the current period, even as a slowdown in China weighed on results.Sales will be about $45 billion in the second fiscal quarter, which runs through July, the company said on Wednesday. That included the loss of roughly $8 billion in revenue from China because of export controls. The forecast was in line with analysts’ estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The outlook shows that Nvidia is ramping up production of Blackwell, its latest semiconductor design. The chipmaker — now the world’s largest by revenue — dominates the market for AI accelerators, the components that help develop and run artificial intelligence models. And an ever-broader lineup of hardware and software is letting Nvidia sell more products to customers. As part of that push, the company is increasingly offering its chips as part of whole computer systems — a move it says is necessary to speed up the deployment of more complex and powerful technology. Nvidia expects AI infrastructure to eventually transform much of the economy, part of what Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang refers to as a new industrial revolution.Today's show features:

  • Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners on Nvidia earnings
  • Bloomberg Businessweek Senior Reporter Max Chafkin
  • Bloomberg News Cross-Asset Reporters Emily Graffeo and Vildana Hajric

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