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cover of episode China Vows to Fight US Tariffs As APAC Markets Recover

China Vows to Fight US Tariffs As APAC Markets Recover

2025/4/8
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
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A
Ahmed Riesgo
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Stephanie Leung
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Stephanie Leung: 我认为我们正处于全面的贸易战之中。中方态度强硬，但其强硬程度可能受到周边国家反应的影响，例如日本、韩国和台湾等国已开始与美国进行谈判。中国政府需要在民族自豪感和经济担忧之间取得微妙的平衡。目前，中国避免使用人民币贬值，因为这将进一步升级贸易战。中国可能已经预料到关税上调，但关税的计算方式和幅度可能出乎意料。中国可能会提前实施已有的经济刺激计划，并尝试通过各种方式来减轻关税的影响，例如将TikTok作为与美国谈判的筹码。美国和中国之间的贸易战的不确定性可能会导致市场大幅下跌。短期内企业难以迅速转移供应链，但长期来看，供应链将更加多元化。中国经济复苏仍处于初期阶段，贸易战升级可能会对其造成负面影响，但中国有能力通过刺激措施来应对冲击。中国经济复苏仍处于初期阶段，通货膨胀和房地产价格仍在下降。中国科技发展（例如AI）为其经济提供了支撑。中国需要采取多种措施，包括大规模刺激计划和可能的人民币贬值来应对贸易战，但这两种方法都存在风险。 Ahmed Riesgo: 美国政府关注的是长期债券收益率，希望将其压低。债券收益率上涨可能是由于市场对美联储降息幅度的重新评估。新关税将导致通货膨胀，但美联储可能对此视而不见。如果贸易战升级，美联储可能会暂停降息。美国经济目前面临衰退的风险，衰退的严重程度将决定其对全球经济的影响。目前还不是降低风险资产配置的时候，风险资产可能还会进一步下跌，但这可能是政策导致的，政策也可能迅速扭转局面。目前金融体系运转良好，没有迹象表明存在金融危机风险。目前投资机会主要集中在长期债券和发达市场货币。如果标普500指数下跌25%，将考虑买入风险资产。特朗普可能利用贸易战策略促使其他国家进行谈判，但预测未来走势仍需谨慎。需要根据新的信息不断调整投资策略。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Stephanie Leung, Chief Investment Officer at StashAway, discusses the escalating trade war between the US and China. She analyzes China's firm stance against US tariffs and the potential impact on Asian Pacific countries. The discussion also touches upon the balancing act between national identity and economic concerns for China and the potential use of currency devaluation as a tool.
  • China vows to fight US tariffs and retaliate if necessary.
  • Other Asian countries are negotiating with the US, unlike China.
  • China's response is firm but measured, avoiding major currency devaluation.
  • Companies are reconsidering supply chains and diversifying away from China.
  • China's economic recovery is still in early stages; stimulus may be needed.

Shownotes Transcript

Asian shares bounced back after a record selloff, as Japan lead gains on expectations that it will get priority in trade talks with US President Donald Trump’s administration. China slammed the US for threatening to raise its tariffs and pledged to retaliate if Washington follows through, raising the stakes of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. We get some market perspective from Stephanie Leung, Chief Investment Officer at StashAway.

On Monday, Trump threatened to slap additional 50% import taxes on China, while readying negotiations with Japan and Israel, leaving markets struggling to grasp his intentions for his sweeping tariff plans. Fears of an economic downturn led to sharp swings in US markets with the S&P 500 index nearing a bear market before finishing slightly down as investors absorbed further tariff news. We unpack the stateside reaction with Ahmed Riesgo, Chief Investment Officer at Insigneo.

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