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cover of episode Daybreak Weekend: CPI Preview, Reeves Statement, BYD Earnings

Daybreak Weekend: CPI Preview, Reeves Statement, BYD Earnings

2025/3/21
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
C
Caroline Hepker
D
Danny Lee
D
Drew Redding
J
Jo Mayes
R
Rachel Reeves
S
Stuart Paul
Topics
Stuart Paul: 我认为美国经济在2024年第四季度保持了健康的增长势头，主要受到强劲的消费者支出的推动。然而，一月份的消费者支出数据令人失望，但预计二月份会有所反弹。通货膨胀方面，我们预计二月份的核心PCE通胀率将达到35个基点，这将推动同比核心通胀率上升至近2.8%。尽管CPI数据有所下降，但核心PCE通胀率可能上升，部分原因是金融服务、食品服务和医疗保健成本的上升以及商品通胀的增加。 Drew Redding: 美国房屋建筑业面临着高房价、高利率、消费者信心下降以及关税等多重挑战。对墨西哥、加拿大和中国的商品征收关税将对美国房屋建筑业产生重大影响，特别是对木材、电器和石膏板等建材的影响。这些关税可能会使建房成本增加高达1万美元，建商可能会将部分成本转嫁给消费者，但这可能会对房屋销售产生负面影响。二月份新屋开工数量大幅增加，可能部分原因是一月份恶劣天气造成的延误。但建筑许可证数量下降，表明建筑商正在采取更为谨慎的做法。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the US economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, focusing on consumer spending and the impact of potential trade tensions. It also discusses the outlook for the first quarter of 2025 and the implications for the Fed's monetary policy.
  • The US economy grew at a 2.3% annualized pace in Q4 2024, driven by robust consumer spending.
  • Consumer spending showed a significant pullback in January 2025 but is expected to rebound in February.
  • Core PCE inflation is expected to be high, potentially justifying the Fed holding rates steady.

Shownotes Transcript

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

  • In the US – a preview of U.S CPI and PCE data, along with a look at the impact of tariffs on housing.
  • In the UK – a preview of UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spring statement.
  • In Asia – a preview of Chinese EV Maker BYD’s earnings.

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