We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
Daybreak Weekend: Housing Data, German Elections, Alibaba Earnings
2025/2/14
Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
C
Catherine Lim
D
Doug Krisner
D
Drew Redding
E
Elise Badoi
O
Oliver Crook
S
Stephen Carroll
S
Steve Mann
Drew Redding: 我认为目前美国房地产市场面临诸多挑战。首先，1月份的房屋开工量预计将下降约7%，未来几个月仍将波动，因为大型公共建筑商正在根据需求调整产量。由于利率上升，市场对销量增长的预期不如几个月前强劲，1月份的需求也比典型的季节性模式弱。其次，小型建筑商在获得增长资本方面持续面临困难，尤其是在不确定的环境中，他们通常依赖区域和地方银行进行融资。再次，我预计近期房屋销售将继续面临压力，因为利率已经回升到7.15%左右，房价在全国大部分地区持续上涨，目前市场缺乏紧迫性。此外，建筑商难以获得足够的技术工人的问题已经持续了很长时间，虽然最近几个季度有所改善，但移民政策仍然对建筑业构成威胁。如果出现大规模驱逐计划，建筑商可能会面临产品建设问题，并且预计成本会上升。最后，房地产市场仍然疲软，房屋负担能力接近历史最低水平，待售房屋销售数据显示，上个月下降了约4%，比去年下降了约6%。越来越多的房屋首次上市，但未售出的时间是五年以来最长的，房屋的高昂价格和7%的利率是主要原因。竞争环境正在发生变化，许多关键市场的活跃房源现在远高于2019年的水平，尤其是在佛罗里达州和德克萨斯州，这可能会对销量和定价都构成压力。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes the January US housing data, focusing on housing starts and existing home sales. The discussion covers factors impacting the market, including cold weather, wildfires, interest rates, affordability, and labor issues like immigration policy and skilled labor shortages. Experts predict continued pressure on sales in the near term.
- January housing starts are expected to be down 7%
- Existing home sales are expected to remain pressured due to high interest rates and prices
- Builders are cautious due to weaker demand and uncertainty regarding growth capital
- Labor shortages, particularly skilled trades, remain a concern, exacerbated by potential immigration policy changes
- Increased inventory and competition are impacting builder strategies and pricing
Shownotes Transcript