Daybreak Weekend: Nvidia Preview, Poland Election, BOK Decision
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This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our daybreak anchors all around the world. And straight ahead on the program, we'll look ahead to some key economic data here in the U.S. and how that may impact Fed policy. I'm Tom Busby in New York. I'm Caroline Hepka in London, where we're looking ahead to Poland's presidential election and a populist challenger. I'm Doug Krisner with a preview of next week's rate decision from the Bank of Korea.

That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. On Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 99.1 Washington, D.C., Bloomberg 92.9 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, Sirius XM 121, and around the world on BloombergRadio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. ♪

Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby. We begin today's program with some key economic data in the U.S., a second read on U.S. GDP for the first quarter that comes out on Thursday, and the next day, a read on inflation with the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the PCE, for April. Now, for more on what to expect and how it could impact Fed policy, we're joined by Stuart Paul, U.S. economist with Bloomberg Economics. Stuart, thank you for being here.

Let's start with what you're expecting to see in the second read, the second read on gross domestic product for the first three months of this year, because the first one was quite a shock, wasn't it? That's right. In the first quarter, we saw GDP growth decline at an annualized pace of 0.3%. That was a modest downside surprise. Now, a lot of attention has been given to this decline in economic activity in the first quarter, and a lot of spokespeople for the administration are coming out and saying that we should anticipate an up

revision to the GDP data. Personally, I think that's a bit optimistic. And I think that maybe on a good day, an upward revision of, let's say, inventories within the GDP tabulation could be enough to lift the estimate of first quarter growth, but just to about 0%. So still not a very good reading. A lot of folks are really focused on this calculation, this accounting for GDP. And they're basically saying, look,

Trade weighed on first quarter growth because there was a surge in imports. But those imports are either being held as inventories or they were consumed or they were used in fixed investment or machinery or computers, et cetera. And so the drag or the subtraction that we get from the trade component should just be offsetting what's added by the domestic components. But I think that when the administration officials and when economic commentators are

on that accounting, they're missing the forest for the trees. There was more growth in demand for and utilization of stuff from abroad than there was in stuff produced and used and created domestically. And I think that that's really what's most important. And even if we do see this upward revision as a consequence of

better estimates of inventory growth, for example, that just means that inventories are likely to subtract from growth in the quarters ahead. So undoubtedly, the trade tensions and the higher trade barriers, higher economic policy uncertainty is weighing on domestic activity. And as you said, this revision, at

at best could just be flat. I think so. I think that it's going to be a pretty soft reading for first quarter growth. And looking ahead, we see weakening PMIs. We see elevated economic policy uncertainty. There is this sort of relief wave, especially showing up in financial markets.

of the temporarily lowered trade barriers, but everything is just on a 90-day delay, and that's going to weigh on fixed investment plans and hiring plans. And there's also inflation we have to talk about, because on Friday is April's PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of consumer inflation. Earlier this month, the April consumer price index rose just slightly, but it still rose 0.2%.

That was from March, a third month in a row. So what are you expecting to see in the PCE? Will it be anything different? This is going to be one of those readings where you really need to look under the hood and dissect what's going on. As you said, the CPI reading was about a touch over 0.2%. The PCE reading, especially the core PCE reading, which matters most for the Federal Reserve, is likely to show just 0.1% growth.

in prices. So the Fed's preferred price measure is just going to show 0.1% price growth during the month, and that might allow people to breathe a sigh of relief. But what's really going on in that core PCE price index is that core goods prices are rising because there is some pass-through from tariffs,

But services prices, especially excluding housing, retreated during the month. So we estimate that core PCE services, excluding housing, declined about 0.1% during the month, offsetting the effect of higher goods prices. And one of the reasons why services prices fell is because the cost of financial services and portfolio management services declined in the past couple months.

And that was due in large part to the stock market retreat when trade barriers were going up. Now, the rebound that we've seen more recently, especially in late April and early May, is just going to mean that those services prices are going to start catching up in the months ahead, likely two, three months ahead as we get deeper into the spring at a time when firms are also starting to pass through higher costs of tariffs and higher input costs. And so even if we see a weak rebound,

reading for the headline and for the core in the aggregate when it comes to these inflation measures, I think the details under the hood are going to be foreshadowing a further deterioration of the economic landscape and higher prices, especially in the months ahead. Well, a second read on first quarter GDP out this Thursday. PCE for April out on Friday. Our thanks to Stuart Paul, U.S. economist with Bloomberg Economics.

We turn now to earnings, and this week we get first quarter results from the last of Big Tech's magnificent seven AI chipmaker, NVIDIA. The $3.25 trillion semiconductor giant has been facing some of the same challenges a lot of other firms are, like the impact of President Trump's tariff wars.

Brief worries about a pullback in enterprise spending and an uncertain economy. It's also had to navigate severe restrictions on exports to China and other nations. And for more on that and what to expect from NVIDIA this week, we're joined by Kunjan Subani, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Semiconductor Analyst.

Boy, there is a lot to unpack about what NVIDIA has been through the last three months. So we know that they've talked about a massive charge they're taking because of those export restrictions. What are you expecting to see in its results this coming Wednesday?

Yeah, I mean, this has been the most noisiest three months coming into an earnings call for Nvidia over the last two, three years. But despite everything, both negative and positive, we think still, again, the results will still be similar to what we have seen from them, which is a strong beat and raise. We don't expect any weakness in the reporting numbers or the guidance at all.

No, no change then. The trajectory, despite what we've seen the last three months, the stock losing almost 30 percent of its value and then coming back. I mean, what do you attribute that to? Is it the new Blackwell chips, which we know did gangbusters in the fourth quarter of last year?

Yeah, it's going to be primarily driven by the strength in Blackwell. And we can unpack a little bit the negatives and how those are sort of not impacting the fundamentals right now. So a couple of concerns, right? This year, we are starting with the Blackwell. There were some hiccups in the GB200, which is their first full rack level Blackwell chip or solution that they're shipping right now.

Those concerns from our channel checks seems to be mostly abated. Shipments are sort of back on track. Everything is flowing in, you know, and the second big concern was the China restrictions, as you pointed out, which for the whole year, the estimate of that impact is supposed to be $15 billion. Now,

Having said that, we think they have other avenues to ship Blackwell to other customers as back on time. Again, remember, they're also still shipping the Hopper series, the new H200 to other customers. And this product was supply constraints last year, which is not this year. So they can ship a lot more of that if they wanted to meet the number. So they have different levers.

to pull right now to at least get to the numbers that the state is guiding to. And even though they've said there could be a charge of up to $5.5 billion just from the export restrictions, you still think it's going to be a clear beat?

Well, the charge is sort of a known quantity. So I'm taking into consideration the account that it's a one time charge not impacting, you know, non-GAAP numbers, which is what most of the investors really focus on. So when you look beyond the charge, having already baked that into the numbers, the new sort of baked in numbers don't seem to at risk. Also, you know, these headwinds,

are likely to become tailwinds in the second half. The company is working, has announced that it's working on a new China variant chip. In the past, they have been slapped with these sanctions almost three to four times now. And every time they've come out, designed a new chip, which is

restriction compliant and started shipping to China very soon, really offsetting the loss of revenue. So we think they will still gain back some of these $15 billion in the second half when they start shipping the new China variant. Now, speaking of new chips, we just wrapped up the NVIDIA's GTC 2025 conference. What is the latest on the Blackwell Ultra, also the Rubin and the Rubin Ultra?

Yeah, I mean, they've laid out a really impressive roadmap for almost a three year roadmap for their next coming chips, which you just highlighted. More recent than the black GTC was the Computex conference, which is actually happening or have started this week in Asia, where they made a

even newer announcements about new product line. One of the key ones I want to highlight is that they're opening up their NVLink scale up connectivity system to the rest of the semiconductor world, which is a big thing.

And just to give some context, one of the biggest concerns or risk or pushback from NVIDIA's customers is that it's a proprietary closed system where you have to use NVIDIA GPUs and connect them with the NVIDIA's proprietary NVLink to connect all of these GPUs together into a cluster. What they have done now is basically opened that for the world where you can use someone else's CPU to work with NVIDIA GPUs. You can use your own ASICs.

and still get this technology, the switching gear from NVIDIA, use that technology to customize your rack. What this does is a couple of things. One, it removes these risks and concerns about proprietorship and vendor lock-in. Two, it opens up a brand new

ham for NVIDIA, where they are still part of the ecosystem. Even if the worst case scenario, which is ASICs taking over GPU comes through, they still get some wallet share out of the hyperscalers and the other customers, and they're not completely removed from the stack. NVIDIA earnings out this Wednesday, just after Wall Street's closing bell. Our thanks to Kunjan Subbani, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Semiconductor Analyst.

And coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, we'll look ahead to Poland's presidential runoff election. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg.

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This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up later in our program, a look ahead to South Korea's central bank meeting. But first, a presidential election in Poland will determine whether that country can restore political stability and remain a reliable partner in the European Union. That's after nearly a decade of divisive right-wing populism. For more, let's get to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline Hepker.

Tom, the Nationalist Law and Justice Party governed Poland for eight years under Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his pro-EU coalition unexpectedly swept into power towards the end of 2023. Now Tusk is hoping that centrist ally and Warsaw mayor, Rafal Czaskowski, from his civic coalition will win the presidential presidency.

poll and helped to secure his policy agenda. Cheskovsky edged out law and justice rival Karol Navrocki in the first round vote with the two men now set to take part in a runoff vote on the 1st of June. It's a

ballot that will be keenly watched across the EU as more of the bloc's members see growing populist support. In a moment, we'll discuss what is at stake for the Polish presidential election. But first, listen to this snippet of Europe's top diplomat. Kaya Kalas puts the issue for Europe clearly, given the conflicts in the Middle East.

The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The aid that Israel has allowed in is of course welcomed, but it's a drop in the ocean. Aid must flow immediately without obstruction and at scale because this is what is needed.

I've made these points also with my talks with Israelis, also I've had talks with UN and the regional leaders as well. Pressure is necessary to change the situation. It is clear from today's discussion that there is a strong majority in favor of review of Article 2 of our association agreement with Israel. So we will launch this exercise.

And in the meantime, it is up to Israel to unblock the humanitarian aid. Saving lives must be our top priority.

So that was the EU's top diplomat, Kaya Callas, speaking to the press after the recent EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting. So which direction will Poland head in next and how will its choice affect its neighbours and the EU as an institution? Joining me to discuss is Bloomberg's Brussels Deputy Bureau Chief, Ewa Krakowska, and our Poland-based reporter, Wojtek Moskwa. Welcome to both of you and thank you for being with me today.

Wojtek, can I start with you firstly? You get the sense that this is a crossroad moment for Poland. Can you talk us through what's at stake? This is a big test for liberal Europe and for liberal Poland.

At stake are two different versions of what Poland can be and should be within Europe. One vision of Prime Minister Tusk and his candidate is for increased cooperation, especially on defence. The other vision is for a halt to further integration and for Poland's security to lie solely in the hands of

NATO and the US. The first round in the election was actually incredibly close. So what do you think we're expecting this time round? It's going to be quite difficult for the Warsaw Mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, to

to pull this out, it seems, because the way that the vote has split up in the first round, the far right candidates got more than 20% of the vote. And these are candidates which are generally against the EU. They are more likely to back the conservative candidate, Karol Navrotsky, in the second round.

On the other hand, the Warsaw mayor is looking to gather more moderate and left-of-centre voters. Ewa, so that's the picture within the country and the voting, but what is Poland's position actually in the EU currently? Because Prime Minister Donald Tusk

He's had obviously an illustrious history and career within the EU. He's now leading Poland, but we don't know who he's going to be partnered with in terms of the president. Has that contributed, do you think, Tusk's history within the EU to the country's influence within Europe? Let's step back for a moment. Tusk was at the helm of the European Council for five years between 2014 and 2019.

And that is one of the most important roles in the EU. It involves turning meetings of national leaders and basically setting the political tone for the bloc's agenda. So PUSK understands very well the inner workings of Brussels, the political nuances and the balance of power.

Worth noting that he belongs to the European People's Party, the biggest political group in the EU. That's also the political family of the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as well as the leaders of Sweden, Greece, Finland and Austria, to name just a few.

Poland is among the biggest countries in the EU, which matters a lot in the EU voting system. In a nutshell, the bigger the population, the more weight a nation has in votes on EU laws, and the more it matters for other countries when it comes to building political alliances.

If you combine all those factors, Poland with Tusk at the helm of the government is definitely influential. Okay, influential. And so what do you think of the standing of Tusk's chosen candidate, Czaskowski, versus his rival, Karol Nawrocki? Does he have allies? How are they positioned, those two people?

First of all, Trzaskowski already has some experience in the government. He was a minister in the previous government of Donald Tusk. Nawrocki is a relatively new candidate. Nobody really knows him.

His party belongs to the group of European conservatives and reformists, which is the fourth biggest political family in the European Parliament. It's also the group where Italian Prime Minister Giulia Meloni belongs to. But make no mistake, even if very few people know Nawrocki now, if he wins the elections, he will become the president of one of the biggest EU nations.

Wow. So Wojtek, in terms of then the campaigning and the battleground, I imagine Poland's relationship with the EU has come up.

a lot. What is the view within Poland? Yes, the EU has been a big campaign topic, as has security. Poland is bordering Ukraine, and the Ukraine conflict has already kind of spread into Poland. Poland is home to more than a million Ukrainian refugees. The main topic is whether the European Union can provide

a sort of security that's needed at a time that US President Donald Trump said he wants Europe to take greater care for itself instead of the US providing such guarantees. The other key issue is whether Poland will be able to undo some of the justice reforms that the previous populist government did that have been blocked for the last two years. If the government will not have

this president as an ally, that's not likely. So there may be a Navrotsky victory is likely to lead to more tensions between Poland and the EU. In terms of the other campaigning issues, Wojtek, can you talk us through what the economic propositions on both sides are, what the other topics are?

are that have emerged in terms of the campaigning? Poland has one of the fastest growing economies in Europe. It's growing around 3% a year. But interestingly, we haven't really seen that much of a feel-good factor coming with fast economic growth because inflation remains stubbornly high around 5%.

And a lot of the talk during this campaign has been about lowering costs for self-employed, payroll costs, deregulation, increasing tax cuts. So these are some of the themes that economically Poland is looking at. And I think both of the candidates

are generally aligned behind lower taxes. It's a question of how they plan to get there. So that's the domestic issue then, perhaps, or some of the domestic issues.

Eva, what's at stake for Brussels in terms of this election? I mean, could the eventual winner end up wielding significant power? How do you think Brussels is thinking about this election? I mean, I mentioned the fact that populism is there within Europe, but has been rising. This will surely be another test of that. First, let's try to put it in a sort of broader context.

Whoever wins the elections in Poland will have only a limited say on European politics. That's because the role of the president under the Polish law is largely symbolic. But as Wojtek said, he has a say, he has the power of a veto.

So when it comes to domestic legislation, some of the domestic legislation will be based on what the EU decides. EU decisions, Brussels decision will have to be translated into national laws. And if we have a Eurosceptic candidate, he may, of course, block it. There could be also implications for wider European security, given that the president in Poland has a say on defence.

Poland emerged as a key supply route for Western arms and aid to Ukraine after the Russian invasion. And Tusk's approach has been to seek stronger ties with key European allies and also try to stay on Trump's side by buying American arms and nuclear power technology. Duda, the current president, enjoyed a warm relationship with Trump,

So if Nawrocki wins or if Trzaskowski wins, their challenge will be to maintain those ties. Hmm.

Okay, so thinking about the US and President Trump. Are there any concerns about free and fair voting in the upcoming election? I mean, you mentioned at the start, democratic standards and the concerns that the EU has had in recent years with those standards in Poland. What about the election in and of itself?

No, there really hasn't been any. There were a lot of concerns about the elections when five years ago when Poland held them during the COVID pandemic. But this time around, there is a independent election commission which is running and counting the votes. So that is not a concern at this time.

Wojciech, just lastly, thinking about what may come in the future and what's at risk perhaps in this election, how are you thinking about it? If the government does not get its ally into the presidential palace, it raises a question of whether the pro-European alliance that Donald Tusk currently controls will be able to hold on to power in the next parliamentary elections in 2027.

So the key thing for European watchers is if Poland's pro-EU tilt is to continue, he needs his own person in the presidential palace. And if he doesn't get that, there's a big question mark over Poland beyond 2027. My thanks to Bloomberg's Brussels Deputy Bureau Chief Ewa Krufkowska and to our Poland-based reporter Wojtek Moskwa for joining me.

And we will have full coverage of the results of that Polish vote. I'm Caroline Hepka here in London. You can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, beginning at 6 a.m. in London. That's 1 a.m. on Wall Street. Tom. Thank you, Caroline. And coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, we'll look ahead to South Korea's central bank meeting and what it means for monetary policy moving forward. I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. ♪

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This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York.

South Korea's central bank meets this week amid growing economic strain. New U.S. tariffs are rattling exporters, and the data is already showing some cracks. Can monetary policy offer some support? Well, for a closer look, let's get to the host of the Daybreak Asia podcast, Doug Krisner. Tom, the latest trade data for South Korea shows a sharp drop in shipments to the U.S. Vehicle exports were down for a second straight month. Now,

Now, on the other hand, there was a jump in sales of semiconductors. Still, the broader outlook does remain a little shaky. And to help unpack what it all means for the Bank of Korea, I'm joined now by Hyosung Kwon. He covers Korea for Bloomberg Economics from our bureau in Seoul. Thank you so much for making time to chat with me, Hyosung. Before we get to what the BOK may do at its next meeting, can you help me understand what

the current macro situation in South Korea, especially given the fact that these U.S. tariffs are in place right now? First of all, thanks for having me, Doug. South Korea's economy is under great strain now. Growth momentum has weakened significantly due to political instability sparked by former President Yoon Seok-yool's

controversial martial law attempt, which eroded consumer and business confidence, delaying consumption investment, and the vacuum of leadership made it difficult for the government to respond to economic challenges. On top of this, the baggage of Trump tariffs hit the economy. South Korea's economy is highly dependent on

exports and the u.s economy is one of the largest destination of south korean exports so higher tariffs on trump administration on south korea's key exports such as automobile and automotive parts and also steel and potential uh the imposition of tariffs on semiconductors would

a way on South Korea's exports and South Korea's growth. I'm curious, Hyosung, how has the Korean won, the currency, been holding up during this period of stress, as you put it? Korean won was under...

severe downward pressure since actually September last year when there was in the US the winning possibility of Trump is growing then South Korea's won started to get downward pressure and then after that the depreciation pressure spiked

after the Yoon Seok-yeol declared martial law last December. But recently, Korean won is gaining slightly as there's a global sentiment that U.S. dollar

is weakening, possibly due to the ongoing currency talks with the U.S. and its trading partners. During that period of weakness in the currency, did inflation pick up in a meaningful way to the extent that the Bank of Korea may have become a little concerned? Inflation was relatively stable.

Actually, as I mentioned, the weaker Korean won would have an inflationary pressure through higher import costs. But as I mentioned before, South Korea's domestic demand is very weak. That weak domestic demand pressure

probably mitigated the increase in the inflation pressure by import costs. But still, I think inflation is slightly higher than, well, compared to its economic conditions. I mean, the weak domestic demand. So given weak domestic demand, does that necessarily mean that household debt hasn't been growing as quickly, that consumers have become a lot more conservative?

So even if the domestic demand was weak, the household debt was increasing recently because that was driven by the expectation that housing prices in the Seoul metropolitan area, especially in Gangnam area, could rise.

So it was driven by the speculation of housing price increases, even with a weak domestic demand. That's very interesting because I recall in the past, the Bank of Korea has been very concerned about the extent to which the property market in South Korea has been very robust, almost too hot for comfort. Is that still the case outside of Seoul?

Outside Seoul, the demand for housing is weakening or weak, but demand for housing in Seoul is still very strong. So it is a kind of two-speed economy, the Seoul metropolitan area and other areas. I think a lot when I think of South Korea about the trade relationship with China, not just the U.S.,

So the China side of the trade story, how has that been impacting South Korean exports to China? Well, recently we saw from data that exports to China is also declining, possibly a

First of all, China's economy is also slowing down. And secondly, the export to China was mainly due to the export to the U.S. after assembling intermediate parts in China. So that means that U.S.-China trade tension would also affect South Korea's export to China in a direct way. And thirdly, the competitiveness of China

China is also increased, meaning that China's demand for South Korea's intermediate part probably declined. When I recall that South Korea is very much allied with the United States, and they were one of the first countries, I think, along with Japan to come to the negotiating table shortly after the tariffs were imposed by the Trump administration, it was a hopeful sign, I think, for many economists that cover South Korea that there would be some type of

resolution in the short term. Is that still very much the expectations that we'll see some type of trade agreement between Washington and Seoul soon? I think that's unlikely because even as you mentioned that the delegations of South Korea went to Washington to have trade talks earlier than other

trading partners of the U.S. Actually, the delegates at that time, the finance minister, Choi Sang-mo, said that their objective was to pave ways for, you know, a trade deal or trade negotiations with the U.S. After the new administration established after the president's election on June 3, which means that they

know try to have a trade talks with the us but they actually didn't want to rush into any trade deal so that's still the case so i think it is very unlikely we south korea will have trade deal with the us in the near time

Hyo Sung, we've touched on some of the macroeconomic elements, which helps us kind of set the stage for this decision that the Bank of Korea confronts. What do you believe policymakers will do at their next meeting?

The Bank of Korea will cut interest rate 25 basis point in May, resuming a very cautious easing cycle. So as I told you before, the growth momentum has weakened significantly, but inflation remained relatively stable around Bank of Korea's 2% target. So the Bank of Korea will move to

to boost the economy.

Can you take me inside the HSBC asset management morning meeting? How much consensus is there right now? I know there are so many different points of view. It's a very mercurial world that we're living in right now. Is there much in the way of consensus in your shop? Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, that's a great question. And you're quite right, because we're living in unusual times, ultra high policy uncertainty, many different dimensions to the investment market equation at this point in time. So we tend to run an approach to think about investment markets based around scenarios, right?

And normally we like to have three scenarios in mind. Juggling more scenarios than that becomes quite difficult mental exercise. And it means then you've got less time to really kind of develop and think about what the data flow and investment market action might look like under different scenarios.

The central theme that we've had is what I call spinning around. So lots of policy uncertainty, high volatility in markets, a big challenge to US exceptionalism, rotation into other global stock markets, policy support in Europe and China, and a situation then where the rest of the world equities, EFI equities can outperform the US.

But clearly with the tariffs, with the Doge fiscal agenda to a degree as well, some of the themes around immigration policy in the U.S., there's a left-hand scenario which we've been also highly attuned to, particularly colleagues in the fixed income area, highly attuned to this idea of

big challenges around the growth inflation mix, recession worries elevated still. And that has a slightly different set of prognoses in terms of how investment markets then behave. And on the right hand side, you know, investors in our equity area, growth, more growth focused investors still want to think about technology and the importance of AI, which

is the most positive, most bullish scenario in the chessboard. And again, that would have a slightly different set of consequences for markets as we think through the scenario. So we like to think in terms of that framework,

And most of our discussions are focused on a central scenario of spinning around lots of volatility, but a way forward for markets over the course of the next 12 to 18 months or a more adverse negative scenario. Worries about recession risk being a big feature of a lot of our conversations. And, of course, we're tracking the data very closely to monitor that risk.

Is there some counterintuitive intuition that you have right now that you would be willing to share? Something that you believe the market may be overlooking that you think will develop in a way that represents opportunity?

So there are some very interesting positive fixed income stories. And there's a lot to focus on in the Asia region as well. India fixed income, China stock markets. I think a lot of these themes tend to be a little bit overlooked by global investors because the story around U.S. markets, U.S. exceptionalism, which has been that dominant meme over the last decade,

has sucked all of the interest and oxygen out of these other themes. As that breaks, as the fault lines appear in US exceptionalism, then it gives oxygen to some of these other stories. So big opportunity for rotation, a big opportunity to look at themes in Europe and Asia over the next 12 to 18 months. But extending a time horizon rather than just focusing on the very near term is probably the best advice at this juncture.

That is Joe Little, Chief Global Strategist at HSBC Asset Management. And I'm Doug Krisner. You can catch us weekdays for the Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available wherever you get your podcast. Tom? Thanks, Doug. And that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at 5 a.m. Wall Street time for the latest on markets overseas and the news you need to start your day. I'm Tom Busby. Stay with us. Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.

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