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Daybreak Weekend: US CPI, Paris AI Summit, Trade War
2025/2/7
Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
C
Caroline Hepker
D
Doug Krisner
K
Karishma Vaswani
M
Michael Halen
P
Parmi Olson
S
Stephanie Leung
S
Stuart Paul
Tom Busby:我们关注美国关键经济数据,如CPI和零售销售,以了解消费者状况及其对美联储政策的影响。
Stuart Paul:我对1月份就业报告的解读是好坏参半。虽然新增就业岗位低于预期,且过去几个月的数据被向下修正,但失业率有所下降。这使得整体情况变得复杂。我预计1月份的CPI环比增长0.3%,核心通胀率小幅下降至3.1%,但仍然居高不下。零售销售数据可能受到极地涡旋的影响,预计总体零售额将下降约0.4%。通货紧缩并不存在,而这通常是美国过去十年的特征。总体而言,就业报告好坏参半,通货膨胀仍然顽固,零售销售受到天气影响,我对经济前景持谨慎态度。
Stuart Paul:我对一月份就业报告的解读是好坏参半。新增就业岗位低于预期,过去几个月的数据也被向下修正,但失业率有所下降。这使得整体情况变得复杂。预计1月份的CPI环比增长0.3%,核心通胀率小幅下降至3.1%,但仍然居高不下。零售销售数据可能受到极地涡旋的影响,预计总体零售额将下降约0.4%。商品通货紧缩并不存在,而这通常是美国过去十年的特征。总体而言,就业报告好坏参半,通货膨胀仍然顽固,零售销售受到天气影响,我对经济前景持谨慎态度。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes the January jobs report, revealing a mixed picture of the US labor market. Payroll growth is slowing, but the unemployment rate is falling. The discussion then shifts to upcoming CPI and retail sales data, anticipating a slowdown in headline inflation but persistent core inflation.
- January job growth was below estimates at 143,000.
- Downward revisions to past months' data were less steep than expected.
- Unemployment rate inched lower.
- Headline inflation is expected to register 0.3% monthly, core inflation at 0.3%.
- Retail sales are expected to decline by 0.4% due to negative weather impacts and lower auto sales.
Shownotes Transcript