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cover of episode Global Markets Bracing for Volatility Ahead of US Reciprocal Tariffs

Global Markets Bracing for Volatility Ahead of US Reciprocal Tariffs

2025/4/1
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Aoifinn Devitt
B
Brad Bernstein
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Brad Bernstein: 我认为市场在周三或周四总统公布政府将如何处理关税信息后，有超过50%的可能性会出现反弹。现在是投资的好时机，特别是当市场比高点低10%的时候。我们建议客户继续持有多元化投资组合，并认为从现在到年底，美国市场将跑赢全球市场。我避免投资商品，因为我认为当市场转向时，表现良好的资产将表现不佳。我们认为今年不会出现经济衰退，美国经济将增长约2%。我们认为今年将会有两到三次降息，关税对增长的负面影响有限，对通货膨胀的影响也不大。今年欧洲市场表现优异，但我们认为从目前的水平来看，美国市场在今年剩余时间内的吸引力将超过世界其他地区。 Aoifinn Devitt: 我们目前专注于短期，因为最近的关税新闻和噪音都是短期性的，并且已经出现逆转。我们正在加强我们的全球配置，并且对非美国股票持积极看法。我们更关注发达市场而不是新兴市场，因为新兴市场面临着越来越大的风险。我们认为目前最大的风险是消费者信心不足，这可能会影响所有股票市场。我们认为中小型股票（特别是中小型股票）比小型股票更能抵御关税的影响。我们对债券市场持谨慎态度，因为我们看到债券市场出现了很大的波动，并且利率的变动在世界各地将会大相径庭。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the market's response to the anticipated US reciprocal tariffs. It includes an interview with Brad Bernstein of UBS Private Wealth Management, who discusses the market rally despite initial declines, factors influencing the price action, investment strategies given the uncertainty, and the outlook for the US economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.
  • Market rallied despite initial decline of 1.7% in S&P 500
  • Defensive stocks performed well, such as Consumer Staples Index
  • Recommendation to maintain diversified portfolios
  • US markets predicted to outperform global markets in the second half of the year
  • Two or three rate cuts expected from the Fed
  • Avoidance of commodities and gold as markets turn

Shownotes Transcript

On today's episode, a discussion on how the latest bouts of market volatility ahead of new reciprocal tariffs from the Trump White House may be giving investors pause. We speak with Brad Bernstein, Managing Director at UBS Private Wealth Management.Plus - how the rollout of those tariffs later this week may drive emerging-market volatility, and why Asian markets may be at risk given the large trade imbalance with the United States. We hear from Aoifinn Devitt, Chief Global Market Strategist at Moneta Group Investment Advisors.

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