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cover of episode Japan Edges Higher on US Trade Negotiation Hopes

Japan Edges Higher on US Trade Negotiation Hopes

2025/4/18
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
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J
James Demert
M
Mary Nicola
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Mary Nicola: 日本的通货膨胀率上升，但由于贸易不确定性，加息周期可能会延迟。美国对日本的贸易政策，特别是关税问题，对日本经济，特别是钢铁和汽车行业造成负面影响。即使日美达成贸易协议，中美贸易紧张关系仍将对全球经济，特别是亚洲出口导向型经济体造成负面影响。美国希望日元贬值，但这对日本经济不利。特朗普质疑美联储独立性，加剧了债券市场压力，并可能导致资金从美元资产流出。由于政策不确定性，资金正在从美国资产流向欧元、日元和瑞士法郎等资产。中国第一季度GDP强劲增长，但主要是因为关税实施前的出口提前，未来中国经济面临压力，需要更多实际的政策支持。人民币将继续温和贬值，但政策制定者不希望出现大幅贬值导致的市场动荡。 James Demert: 市场急需调整，关税的出台比预期更剧烈，导致股市下跌，但最糟糕的情况可能已经过去。通胀冲击和衰退的风险被夸大了，关税对GDP增长的影响有限，美联储有足够的工具来应对经济放缓。投资者应该避免受关税影响严重的工业类股票，例如卡特彼勒和汽车类股票，而关注受关税影响较小的金融、电信和制药等行业。当前市场环境下，选择性投资能够找到在关税环境下表现良好或受益的股票。由于流动性好，我更青睐发达市场的股票，例如日本和中国的股票，特别是那些在国内市场占有重要份额的优质公司。特朗普政府的贸易政策损害了美国与其亚洲盟友之间的关系和投资者信心。目前投资不足20%，将利用市场波动寻找价值投资机会。

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Japanese stocks rose in the early Friday session as expectations for progress in trade negotiations between the US and the European Union supported automotive-related sectors. Most Asian markets are shut for the Good Friday holiday. Data released Friday showed Japan's consumer inflation advanced last month, supporting the central bank's stance on a gradual rate hike path before US tariff measures clouded the economic outlook. We speak with Mary Nicola, Bloomberg MLIV Strategist in Singapore.

Stateside - a rebound in US stocks evaporated this week after Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on the idea of the Federal Reserve stepping in to bolster markets, rankling President Donald Trump who touted a smattering of deals Thursday. We cap off the trading week with insights from James Demmert, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Main Street Research.

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