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cover of episode S&P 500 Sets Fresh Record; US-Vietnam Deal Signals New Pressure on Beijing

S&P 500 Sets Fresh Record; US-Vietnam Deal Signals New Pressure on Beijing

2025/7/3
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
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Brian Krause
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Jill Disis
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Brian Krause: 目前标普的估值已经达到了95%，很难证明其合理性，而且考虑到关税可能带来的巨大变化，市场仍然存在很多不确定性。股市在经历了大幅下跌后又迅速反弹，这种疯狂的走势使得在当前估值下，即使有关税方面的利好消息，也很难证明其合理性。美联储面临着关税和医疗保健等潜在风险，这些因素可能会影响通货膨胀和经济。劳动力市场疲软可能会降低通货膨胀，让美联储采取行动，但关税和医疗保健问题仍然存在，需要关注。 人工智能如果能提高生产力，可能会成为一种通货紧缩的力量，对劳动力市场产生影响。人工智能已经对就业市场产生了影响，对新毕业的大学生来说，找工作变得更加困难。人工智能肯定会变得非常重要，但投资者可能有些过于乐观，尤其是在那些市值较低、投机性较强的公司上。像甲骨文和微软这样的公司将会是赢家，只是估值倍数的问题，对于投机性较强的公司要非常谨慎。 银行通常不是我们喜欢的优质公司，但银行的好消息和储备金要求的降低可能会提高其质量，人工智能也有助于金融业的发展。在金融领域，我们更喜欢保险和保险经纪，Visa和Fiserv也是我们喜欢的名字，金融业总体上会继续表现良好。硅谷的年轻工程师们突然发现自己很难找到工作，这是一种非常大的变化，自2008年以来就没有听说过这种情况了。即使在科技股上涨的今天，许多年轻人仍然难以找到工作，这很可能是因为人工智能以及科技公司将资金投入到资本投资而非劳动力上。科技公司将资金投入到资本投资而非劳动力上，这确实影响了就业市场。 如果削减医疗补助，可能会导致更多的人没有保险，从而导致更高的医疗保健通货膨胀。医疗保健通货膨胀会影响普通美国人，因为他们主要关心的是食物、住房和医疗保健。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Despite reaching record highs, the S&P 500's valuation is high and market uncertainty remains. Concerns include tariffs, healthcare costs, and the impact of AI on the labor market. The recent ADP employment report showed a decline in private sector jobs.
  • S&P 500 at 95th percentile on valuation
  • Uncertainty remains in the market despite record highs
  • Concerns about tariffs (potentially 10-20% aggregate impact), healthcare costs, and AI's impact on jobs

Shownotes Transcript

A rally in several big tech companies fueled gains in US stocks, with the market extending its advance as President Donald Trump said he reached a trade deal with Vietnam. Treasuries fell as a selloff in UK bonds underscored deficit worries. Following earlier losses driven by weak jobs data, the S&P 500 rose to fresh all-time highs. In the run-up to the jobs report, economists forecast employers added 110,000 jobs in June — the fewest in four months — amid a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report is due Thursday, a day earlier than usual because of the Independence Day holiday. We get reaction to the day's market moves from Brian Krawez, President at Scharf Investments.

Plus - the trade truce between Washington and Beijing may be holding for now, but China is increasingly wary about what's happening elsewhere: US efforts to forge deals that could isolate Chinese firms from global supply chains. Ahead of a July 9 deadline, US officials are deep in talks with major trading partners in Asia and Europe, pushing for new agreements that would include restrictions on Chinese content, or secure commitments to counter what Washington sees as China's unfair trade practices. In the first such deal, President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a tiered tariff agreement with Vietnam. Exports to the US from the Southeast Asian nation will be charged a 20% rate, Trump said in a social-media post, with 40% levied on any goods deemed to be transshipped through the country. We get the latest from Jill Disis, Bloomberg News Desk Editor in Hong Kong. She speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts on The Asia Trade.

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