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Trump Tariff Deadline Rattles APAC Markets

2025/7/2
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Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
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Jeff Grylls
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Shehzad Qazi
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Shehzad Qazi: 我认为尽管六月份的数据显示中国经济有所放缓，但中国政府对当前的中美贸易战局势持有自信态度。我们不认为这一个月的疲软数据会引起中国共产党或习近平主席的特别关注，他们对自己在中美贸易战中的地位感到相当自信。我认为中国领导人认为他们在稀土出口管制方面占据优势。同时，中国可能还会有一轮提前出口，制造业可能从中受益，整体而言，他们感觉自己目前处于有利地位。中国的出口订单正在放缓，特别是来自美国的订单，仍处于收缩状态。很多对美国的出口可能通过东南亚的第三方国家进行，因此对美直接出口数据可能在一段时间内不会很强劲，目前制造业表现平淡。中国的国内需求已经相当疲软，年初因中国新年和五一假期有所增长，但之后由于贸易补贴到期和缺乏刺激消费的活动，数据表现疲软。近几个月来，中国房地产市场的部分涨幅正在被逆转。中国就业市场有所放缓，但情况并不令人担忧。长期来看，中国劳动力市场存在问题，但就目前而言，就业情况并不令人担忧。目前科技革命对中国经济的重大影响尚未显现。中国科技行业的繁荣景象有所减弱，其对整体经济的影响可能需要几年时间才能显现。临近秋季，除非贸易方面出现问题，否则中国的出口可能会有所增长，同时集装箱船短缺的问题也将得到缓解。中国需要加大刺激力度，目前财政活动有所增加，如果继续放松政策，可能会有所帮助，同时需要找到更可持续的方式来刺激消费。我认为中国经济既没有巨大的增长，也没有迫在眉睫的灾难。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the state of the Chinese economy, focusing on the latest flash data reading from China Beige Book International which showed a slowdown in June. Despite this, the discussion suggests that Beijing may not be as concerned as outsiders think, given the context of the trade war with the US. The discussion delves into various sectors, such as manufacturing, domestic demand, the property market, and the job market, providing insights into their current performance and future outlook.
  • June data showed soft or concerning data across the Chinese economy.
  • Despite this, the CCP and President Xi are confident about their position in the US-China trade war.
  • Export orders have slowed, especially from the US.
  • Domestic demand has softened after a positive start to the year.
  • The property market shows signs of reversing recent gains.
  • The job market has slowed but remains a less significant worry than other sectors.
  • The impact of China's technological revolution on the broader economy is yet to be seen.

Shownotes Transcript

Asian shares edged lower at the Wednesday open after President Donald Trump said he won't delay the July 9 deadline for imposing higher levies on trading partners, ratcheting up trade tensions yet again.

Back in June, China and the US reaffirmed their May trade truce, sustaining a rebound in trade flows and propelling China's economic momentum. Bloomberg Economics says consumption also showed signs of revival, but the trend is unlikely to last without continuous policy efforts that promote domestic demand. We take a look at the state of the Chinese economy with Shehzad Qazi, Chief Operating Officer and Managing Director at China Beige Book International.

Plus - US job openings hit the highest since November, largely fueled by leisure and hospitality, and layoffs declined. Federal Reserve policymakers have consistently characterized labor-market conditions as strong in recent weeks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeated that the US central bank probably would have cut rates further this year absent Trump's expanded use of tariffs, although he didn't rule out easing at its meeting later this month. We get market insights from Jeff Grills, Head of EM Debt at Aegon Asset Management.

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