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cover of episode Uncertainty Brews Ahead of Trump Tariff Rollout

Uncertainty Brews Ahead of Trump Tariff Rollout

2025/4/2
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
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David Finnerty
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Jeff Grills
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David Finnerty: 我认为即将实施的关税是关税博弈的第一阶段，其他国家很可能会报复，导致关税升级，市场不确定性主要在于关税的最终高度和持续时间。短期内，股市将是主要的晴雨表，其反应会影响其他市场。日元和欧元值得关注，因为它们可能分别受益于避险情绪和潜在的欧洲对关税的回应。美元的走势则相对不明朗，人民币则可能面临贬值压力，但中国央行可能短期内维持汇率稳定。 Jeff Grills: 新兴市场债券市场表现相对稳定，这主要是因为市场对关税的不确定性，以及特朗普可能实施普遍性关税的可能性，这可能会导致通货膨胀和失业率上升，形成滞胀局面。虽然滞胀的可能性存在，但目前概率不高。新兴市场受关税影响有限，主要风险来自财政赤字，高信用评级和强劲资产负债表将是应对风险的关键。受关税影响较大的行业包括出口导向型产业和能源行业，而金属和矿业可能表现相对较好。目前市场活动有所放缓，这可能是暂时的，一旦市场恢复清晰，情况可能会好转。我不认为目前新兴市场债务违约风险会显著增加。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the potential effects of the announced US tariffs on Asian markets. Experts discuss the immediate market reactions, the possibility of retaliatory measures from other countries, and the potential impact on various sectors including equities, fixed income, and currencies.
  • Asian markets show initial skittishness with small declines in Japan and South Korea.
  • The equity market is seen as a key barometer of risk sentiment.
  • There's a possibility of a tariff spiral with retaliatory measures from other countries.
  • The impact on the US dollar and other safe haven currencies is uncertain.
  • The Chinese Yuan is expected to weaken gradually.

Shownotes Transcript

President Donald Trump’s deliberations over his plans to impose reciprocal tariffs are coming down to the wire, with his team said to be still finalizing the size and scope of the new levies he is slated to unveil on Wednesday afternoon. Asian stocks edged lower as traders grapple with how to position themselves ahead of the planned 4pm Eastern time White House announcement. We speak with David Finnerty, Bloomberg FX and Rates Strategist in Singapore.

Plus - how those new tariffs may stand to affect the risk landscape in emerging markets. We get some perspective from Jeff Grills, Head of EM Debt at Aegon Asset Management.

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