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cover of episode US Jobs Report Buoys Sentiment; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

US Jobs Report Buoys Sentiment; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

2025/7/4
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

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Rob Hayworth
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Scott Bessent
特朗普提名的财政部长候选人,曾任乔治·索罗斯对冲基金高级管理人,推崇减少预算赤字、放松监管和增加能源生产的经济政策。
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Rob Hayworth: 今天公布的就业数据确实令人意外地强劲,这表明美国经济具有韧性。虽然14.7万的新增非农就业人数并非近期最高,但远超预期。我认为这表明我们看到了一个有弹性的经济体,这与我们在PMI数据和本周公布的职位空缺数据中看到的情况一致。市场对此反应积极。我认为这使得美联储处于观望模式,正如鲍威尔主席在本周欧洲央行会议上暗示的那样。这可能意味着他们今年将进行两次降息,但这取决于数据的表现。我们尚未看到关税对通胀或利润率产生重大影响。和解法案对经济的益处可能要到今年晚些时候或明年初才能显现,这为美联储降息提供了空间。我认为,关税最终会导致消费者或企业承担成本,前者会导致通货膨胀,后者会挤压利润率,从而对劳动力市场产生不利影响。因此,我认为最大的不利因素是公司可能无法像他们希望的那样快速增长,消费者将面临一些通胀压力,这可能会暂时减缓经济活动。普遍的经济学家预计,由于消费者面临通胀压力或企业面临利润率压力,2025年的平均增长率将在1%到1.5%之间。尽管估值偏高,但股市仍存在机会,因为消费者支出和企业盈利增长依然积极。我们对市场仍然持乐观态度,但担心容错空间不大,消费者支出和企业盈利增长是利好因素。在投资组合中应强调多元化,关注美国以外的投资机会,并分散对科技股的过度依赖,关注工业、金融和公用事业等板块。

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Asian equities were set to climb Friday following fresh highs for US stocks as strong jobs data eased concerns the economy slowing down. Treasuries fell and the dollar rose Thursday in a sign traders see less pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates after US jobs growth exceeded expectations in June. Swap traders saw almost no chance of a July Fed cut, compared with a roughly 25% probability seen before the data. The chance of a move in September ebbed to about 70%. We get reaction from Rob Haworth, Senior Vice President and Senior Investment Strategy Director at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group.

Plus - US markets closed prior to the House passing President Donald Trump's tax bill that had weeks earlier sparked concerns over rising deficits. Separately, Trump also said his administration may begin sending out letters to trading partners as soon as Friday setting unilateral tariff rates ahead of a July 9 deadline for negotiations. Before the vote, we heard from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He spoke with Bloomberg's Romaine Bostick and Matt Miller.

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