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cover of episode US Trade Negotiations Continue This Week

US Trade Negotiations Continue This Week

2025/4/21
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
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Alicia Garcia Herrero
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Austan Goolsbee
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Doug Krisner
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Naomi Fink
Topics
Doug Krisner: 本周市场情绪将主要取决于特朗普政府的贸易政策。 Naomi Fink: 美日贸易谈判结果难以预测，可能旷日持久，即使达成协议也可能需要重新谈判。关税对美国消费者影响最大，可能导致通货紧缩甚至滞胀。建议投资者分散投资，关注亚洲等盈余经济体的内需增长潜力以及黄金等资产。长期投资者应保持冷静，采用美元成本平均法，避免根据市场波动进行交易，并关注中国市场。美元走弱，日元走强，日元汇率可能在年底达到1.30，但日元突然升值可能扰乱企业计划，而逐渐升值则允许经济有时间调整。 Austan Goolsbee: 经济学家普遍认为，货币政策独立于政治干预非常重要，缺乏货币独立性的国家通常通胀率更高、增长更慢、就业市场更差。 Alicia Garcia Herrero: 特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评增加了市场波动风险，因为美联储在应对经济危机方面发挥了重要作用，其拥有降低长期利率的能力，这对于特朗普来说是一个“诱人的机会”。特朗普的政策可能会通过影响投资和劳动力市场来影响经济增长，从而增加美联储对经济增长的担忧。全球经济是否陷入衰退取决于关税政策的长期影响以及市场对额外关税成本的反应，市场下跌可能会阻止特朗普实施更多导致全球衰退的政策。美国国债的避险地位受到质疑，投资者转向欧元等其他货币寻求安全，但欧元大幅升值也可能损害欧洲经济。美国在美中贸易争端中更有可能先让步，因为美国民众没有做好应对贸易战的准备，而中国民众已经做好了准备。中国在刺激经济方面需要谨慎，快速降息可能会导致人民币贬值和资本外流。美国制造业PMI数据显示悲观情绪，这与制造商面临的关税有关。

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Shownotes Transcript

Officials from Japan and South Korea are slated to begin trade negotiations with the United States this week. Early Monday, China's Ministry of Commerce said it firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests. Those comments came as China claims Washington is using tariffs to coerce other countries to restrict economic and trade exchanges with Beijing. We get more perspective from Naomi Fink, Chief Global Strategist at Nikko Asset Management. She speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Paul Allen.

Plus - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned against efforts to curtail the central bank’s independence, days after President Donald Trump expressed his displeasure with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Last week, Trump posted on Truth Social that Powell’s “termination cannot come fast enough!” He hasn’t clarified whether that means he intends to find a way to fire the Fed chief, or is simply eager for Powell’s term to end as scheduled in May 2026. We get reaction from Alicia Garcia Herrero, Chief APAC Economist at Natixis.

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