Trump Announces Fragile Israel-Iran Ceasefire, 5% UK Defense Spending
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This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Tuesday the 24th of June here in London. I'm Caroline Hepker. And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, Iran and Israel head toward a pause in fighting as US President Donald Trump announces a ceasefire. The UK will commit to spending 5% of GDP on security by 2035 as leaders gather for a crucial NATO summit.

Plus, swallowing a bitter pill. Ireland's finance minister tells us that US pharmaceutical tariffs could cost the economy 75,000 jobs. Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

Iran and Israel may be nearing a pause in their 12-day war after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire on social media. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aghraqi said also on social media that his country would stop firing so long as Israel does and that the final decision will be made later.

While Israeli officials remained silent overnight, a senior White House official said Trump brokered the ceasefire in a direct conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Robert Jordan is the former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia. A lot depends on the Israelis. There is some tension, I think, between the Trump administration and Netanyahu's cabinet right now. They may feel pressure in Israel to continue some sort of strikes.

But my hope is that we'll see an opportunity for diplomacy. Robert Jordan speaking there. Israel was still striking targets in Iran earlier today, but according to reports, the explosions in Tehran seemed to stop at about 4 a.m. local time. Meanwhile, Israel's military said it identified three waves of missiles launched from Iran in the early hours of this morning.

Well, the developments come less than 12 hours after Iran fired missiles at one of its closest regional partners, Qatar, where the United States has its Middle East headquarters. Qatar said that the Iranian missile barrage was intercepted and that the U.S. Central Command base had been evacuated in advance. We heard earlier from former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, retired General Wesley Clark.

Iran did sort of the minimum they could do. And the market kind of anticipated that. You know, the market has a lot of common sense when you look at the collective response. And what they saw was an Israeli regime that's continuing to attack all

powerful U.S. military capacities with a president who would use them and an Iranian regime on its back heels, a concern, but trying to show that it could do something in order to impress its domestic opponents and try to maintain itself in power.

Retired four-star Army General Wesley Clark speaking earlier to Bloomberg. Iran's mostly symbolic response followed the US suddenly entering the conflict directly, launching a major bombing operation against Iranian nuclear facilities. President Trump said that the strikes completely and totally obliterated those sites, though battle damage assessments are ongoing and the whereabouts of Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles remain.

remain unknown. Oil prices have slumped after President Trump announced the tentative ceasefire. The global benchmark Brent crude slid by almost 5% in early Asian trading before paring some of those losses. The plunge briefly took prices below the level they were before of the day before Israel attacked Iran. Bloomberg Energy reporter Stephen Stapchinsky says oil traders are seeing less risk in the market.

The oil market is really discounting this recent flare up and you can see it through the prices, right? Clearly, oil prices are back below the June 12 level. You're seeing the market take a large sigh of relief. And that is largely because while we've been through potentially the worst flare up in US-Iranian conflict in decades, oil kept flowing and trade via the Strait of Hormuz was not affected.

Bloomberg's Stephen Schapsecki speaking after days of turmoil in oil markets on concerns of disruption in a region that pumps around a third of the world's crude oil. Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer will pledge to spend 5% of GDP on security by 2035 without providing a path as to how to get there. Starmer will sign up to the ambitious NATO target of spending 3.5% on defence

and 1.5% on wider security-related areas. US President Donald Trump has pushed for that new goal, saying that Europe has taken advantage of America's security umbrella. NATO Secretary General Mark Rotter says a ramp-up in spending would be a, quote, quantum leap. As the world becomes more dangerous, allied leaders will take bold decisions to strengthen our collective defence.

making NATO a stronger, a fairer and a more lethal alliance. Rota's new target hasn't won the approval of all NATO members. Spain is fighting for an opt-out that could derail talks taking place in The Hague today. Another key hurdle is the timeline, with the UK successfully pushing the deadline back to 2035, while Germany will hit the target before the end of this decade.

Ukraine's president has warned that Russia could attack a NATO member within five years, echoing the assessments of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and several European intelligence agencies. Vladimir Zelensky says plans for NATO members to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 are too slow.

Starting from 2030, Putin can have significantly greater capabilities. Today, Ukraine is holding him up. He has no time to drill the army. And they are all getting annihilated and wiped out at the battlefield. And 10 years is a very long time. He will have a new army ready by then.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky speaking there. Bloomberg Economics has estimated that war between Russia and NATO would result in mass immigration and loss of life with the cost to global GDP in the region of $1.5 trillion.

Now, the European Union and Canada have signed a security pact that paves the way for joint defence contracts. The deal sets out dozens of areas of cooperation and it is the first step towards accessing the EU's 800 billion euro procurement fund. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney says that the rules-based global order is under threat. We can nostalgically look back and long for the old order.

to somehow return, or we can build a new one with purpose and partnership. And as the most European of the non-European countries, Canada looks first to the European Union to build a better world.

The Canadian leaders deal marks a pivot away from the US for Canada, where it currently spends the vast majority of its defence dollars. The EU also signed a security pact with the UK last month, five years after Brexit. Well, in the UK, the Prime Minister Keir Starmer has welcomed a three-year programme by Amazon to invest £40 billion in the UK. Bloomberg's Ewan Potts has the details.

The Business and Trade Department says Amazon's £40 billion investment will create thousands of new jobs nationwide, including 2,000 at a previously announced warehouse in Hull and another 2,000 in Northamptonshire. The online retailer's plans are in line with its pace of investment in recent years. The company says it invested more than £12 billion in Britain in 2023.

Nonetheless, the size of the package will come as a boost to the government. The Prime Minister calling it a massive vote of confidence in the UK as the best place to do business. In London, I'm Ewan Potts, Bloomberg Radio. So those are our top stories for you this morning. Looking at the markets, we've had oil prices slumping 2.7% lower for Brent crude futures. So it's currently trading at $69.55. We have retraced over the course of this morning Asian markets.

markets when we were trading in early hours saw Brent crude sliding almost 5%. So, we're now down back below the levels of June the 12th when Israel first attacked Iran's nuclear sites. This, as we see the dollar also down this morning on the ratcheting down perhaps of tensions in the Middle East. So, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down three-tenths of 1%. U.S.

Stock futures surging 0.6% of 1%. US Euro stocks 50 futures also up by 1.3% this morning. The ECB's Christine Lagarde talking about being well positioned to manage the heightened economic and political uncertainty monitoring the oil price swing. So that's a look at the markets this hour. In a moment we'll bring you the latest on the Israel-Iran conflict. Donald Trump's been posting on social media that the ceasefire is now in effect.

and appealing to parties not to violate it. So more on that in a moment, plus we'll be talking about the NATO summit in The Hague as well.

But this is, of course, on a day where we're watching so much is happening in the Middle East as well. And we're thinking, too, about how that's affecting other parts of the global economy as well. Yeah, indeed. So we'll get to those big conversations in a moment. But there's another event that I would like to mention this morning. First, Stephen, you were in Ireland yesterday to speak to the Irish finance minister and the Eurogroup president, Pascal Donoghue. Yeah, Pascal Donoghue was in our new offices in Dublin for a future finance event at a

really interesting time for Ireland because it's one of the European countries most exposed to US tariffs because of its large technology and pharmaceutical industries. And that was a large part of the conversation I was having with Pascal Donoghue with his two hats. One is Ireland's finance minister, but the other is the chairman of the meeting of Euro area finance ministers.

Two, he talked about how Ireland could be affected by tariffs, particularly the threat of pharmaceutical sector specific tariffs we're waiting on news for. Donald Trump has promised they'll come very soon as well. Scenarios that the Irish government has outlined could, in a worst case scenario, see up to 75,000 jobs being lost if there are tariffs imposed on the pharmaceutical industry at a high level.

Pascal Donoghue, though, pointing out that the strong economic position that Ireland has been in will help to cushion some of those blows and downturns as well. Of course, they've had massive corporate tax receipts, which has been part of the story, partly around stockpiling, but also in general, global tax changes that have led more companies, US-based companies in Ireland, to pay more corporate tax as well.

Also, though, talking about how the government would approach a big downturn in growth and the lessons that were learned from the previous crises in Ireland, you said the government's going to still invest in infrastructure and housing issues that are really big and a limit on economic growth in Ireland as well. And we're going to bring you a little bit of that conversation later on. Yeah, absolutely. I saw some of the photographs. They look absolutely amazing. And in fact...

The Dublin office is now Bloomberg's biggest in the EU. Almost. They're almost there, but they're on track for running it as well. There are 150 people working in the Dublin office, actually mostly on the engineering side of things. It's a technology hub for Bloomberg as well. And it's now just slightly...

Frankfurt as one of our hubs, but they're planning to expand more. And that's part of the conversation that even at a time of such uncertainty, both with happening in the Middle East, but also on the trade front as well, that was something that we heard from a lot of the financial industry leaders that were at this event in our offices yesterday too. They're planning on hiring more people. They're still seeing, despite the global uncertainty and many of those issues, still seeing reasons to invest and to expand more.

So an interesting time at a country that, as I say, is sort of on the front line of the exposure to the tariffs. How some of the industry leaders there and politicians are thinking about those challenges and still remaining optimistic despite it all. OK. Yeah. And also the photographs were lovely of you in the office. I mean, Bloomberg offices are always...

an experience to visit. I think Pascal Dunne, who actually has seen more of them than I have, I think we established during the conversation yesterday, he was listing off all the Bloomberg offices. Well, yeah, well, he's put a post on social media with some really great pictures. Anyway, if you want to see Stephen in action, lovely. Well, we're very pleased to have you back in the London studio and interested to hear about Ireland.

Well, let's now go back to our top stories. There is uncertainty and there isn't much detail, but it does appear that Iran and Israel may pause hostilities after Iran chose to respond to the U.S.'s bombing of its nuclear sites by firing missiles at Qatar, one of the

US's key regional partners. And we're just hearing, as Stephen mentioned, the US president posting in the past few minutes that the ceasefire is now in effect. Do not violate it, says President Trump. Joining us now is Bloomberg TV's Horizons Middle East and Africa anchor, Jamala Basetchi. Jamala, thank you so much for rushing over to the microphone to discuss this. President Donald Trump announcing this surprise ceasefire between Israel and Iran. What do we know about how this has come about?

Yeah, well, this is the second time he's announced it in the last six hours. I've got to say, at this point, it is unclear whether the ceasefire actually has gone into effect yet.

Donald Trump is saying that the ceasefire is in effect. Please do not violate it. But what we're hearing from the ground contradicts that. Just in the last couple of hours, the IDF have reported that there's been a sixth wave of ballistic missiles directed towards Israel from Iran. Sirens were sounding a couple of hours ago in anticipation of those missile launches. AP reporting a short while ago that the air skies above Israel have also been closed too.

And we've also yet to hear an official comment from Israeli officials as to whether or not they've signed up to this ceasefire. So really uncertain at this point. From the Iranian perspective, the foreign minister put up a post on X a couple of hours ago saying that there was no ceasefire agreement, but that his country had no intention to keep responding to Israeli attacks after 4 a.m. Tehran time. Obviously, that was hours ago.

And the evidence would suggest otherwise because the volley of attacks have continued. And even over Tehran, their own air defense system has also been activated as well. So question marks about whether the ceasefire has gone into effect as of now.

And you allude to the disjointed nature of this announcement as well. As you say, we haven't heard from the Israeli side yet. What does that tell us about the U.S.-Israeli relationship through this crisis?

So we're trying to piece together the details of exactly how this ceasefire was brokered. According to our own reporting, Trump did have a direct conversation with the Prime Minister, Netanyahu, on Monday. That is also per a senior White House official.

And also our own reporting does confirm that the vice president, JD Vance, the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and the special envoy, Steve Witkoff, all have indirectly or directly been speaking to the Iranians about the proposal.

And then overnight, President Trump also credited Qatar, remember Qatar, the site of yesterday's attacks, the U.S. base in Qatar, for having mediated and brought about, again, bringing the Iranians to the table for the ceasefire proposal as well. So it feels like there was a three-pronged approach of Trump speaking perhaps directly to the Israelis and then via mediators, in this case Qatar, with the Iranians.

Going back to also the chain of events, it looks like the US avoided Iran's nuclear reactors in the recent bombing. And we still also don't know where the enriched uranium might be. That remains unaccounted for. And so the thoughts remain around...

what Iran is doing with its nuclear program now? Yeah, I think one of the big overarching questions is going to be what does Iran do from here? And I'm not in terms of just signing up to the ceasefire, but what their plans are with the nuclear program. Do they come back to the negotiating table? And if they do come back to the negotiating table, are they more inclined to accept more stringent concessions that the U.S. will be asking for and

potentially a zero enrichment policy. In the past, they have said that that is a complete red line. Earlier on in the show, on our show, we were speaking to an Iranian analyst and he said even with the setbacks that the Iranian regime has faced over the past week, it's still unlikely that they will sign on to the zero enrichment criteria. Why? Because it's about the survival of the regime. They've placed their whole...

raison d'etre around the nuclear program serving as a deterrent. And therefore, for them to give that up freely could put the regime at risk. So from here onwards, it's going to be really crucial to see how that path to diplomacy moves forwards and what the terms are going to be for a potential nuclear deal, if indeed it actually does come into fruition.

Okay, Jemana Bursac here, Horizons Middle East and Africa anchor. Thank you very much for joining us with the latest. Hey, it's Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. Now, I was looking for fun ways to tell you that Mint's offer of unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month is back. So I thought it would be fun if we made $15 bills. But it turns out...

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Well, amid the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties, the leaders of the 32 NATO countries are meeting in The Hague. The organisation is in turmoil. The Secretary General, Mark Rutter, wants a new minimum spending target of 5% of GDP on defence. President Trump's

commitment to mutual defence though remains uncertain. Let's bring in our correspondent Oliver Crook who is in The Hague and covering the NATO meeting today. Ollie, good morning. Can Rutter wrangle all the members to commit to higher spending?

Listen, that is going to be the sort of base expectation for NATO, that they're going to be able to get everybody over the line here over that 5%. We should say that they basically did manage to get everybody to commit to 5%, with basically the exception of Spain. That has been a sort of active debate over the last few days. We were speaking with Mark Bronte yesterday in a press conference. He was asked many times about this.

about basically whether there would be a carve out for Spain, would there be some fudging for Spain, all these sort of details. And of course, if Spain were to be given this concession, it would, of course, create precedent to break ranks for other NATO members. And that is not at all what the alliance wants to do overall with President Trump set to arrive here in a couple of weeks.

hours time, he has demanded a 5% minimum spend for NATO allies. The United States has said in the past that it itself will also hit 5%. And so that is going to be the expectation here. And of course, I think that this is part of the NATO playbook and sort of appeasing of Trump. A big, beautiful number, easy to understand.

5% spending on defense. The reality of that 5% number is actually only 3.5% of that is going to be on these sort of hard military spend, guns and ammunition, that sort of thing. And then the 1.5% is going to be a bit of a fudge. It's going to be things that sort of support the defense industry. So we could be talking about infrastructure. For example, if you need to carry tanks across Germany, you need roads and rails that can carry that, cybersecurity, those sorts of things. So those are going to be kind of the conversations over the next 24 hours as everybody awaits Donald Trump to arrive in

later this evening. Is it going to be enough, though, to convince President Trump to commit to collective defence and essentially the future of NATO as an organisation?

Yeah, I mean, this is something that is sort of a thought exercise I've been doing with myself over the last few days and some of the people I've been speaking to, which is, you know, what is the best case scenario outcome here? Let's say that NATO says, OK, we will agree to 5 percent spend. We will agree to do it over a reasonable period of time. We will agree to do it with largely because there's no other option buying U.S. military kit. What is the best case scenario of what Donald Trump is going to say to that? Is he going to say, listen, we are, you know, very, very thrilled about this. We recommit to NATO. We're, you know,

intensely happy with this and you can rely on us going forward. Probably not. He's going to see the leverage that he has over the organization. Again, there have been moments when Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, has come to Europe and basically said, listen, our commitment to NATO is still ironclad. But again, I think

that this is probably an opportunity for Trump to get again to begin to flex his muscle. And, you know, as far as NATO is concerned, he really is in the position he likes to be in, which is basically, you know, the sort of the monarch of the organization and everybody else that is a sort of part of it is sort of auditioning to keep the job that they already have. So listen, I think at the end of the day, if he gives any sort of positive indication that listen, that the NATO alliance is still strong. But the reality of the situation, Stephen, is the thing that hangs over this

is the potential for the United States to draw down much of its military presence in Europe. There are about 84,000 American troops that are all over Europe. And the reality of the situation, I spoke to the Dutch finance minister yesterday, is the expectation is that they're going to begin to draw those down in the coming months and years.

Okay, which would be immensely significant indeed. And the Ukrainian leader, Vladimir Zelensky, also does appear to have been somewhat sidelined at this event despite the fourth year of Russia's war in Ukraine. Thank you so much, Olly, for being with us.

...Oliver Crook there in The Hague ahead of the NATO summit today. I will also point listeners to Bloomberg's big take story this morning. If you want a hair-raising read, this is it. It models a Russian attack on NATO countries. It focuses on the Baltics. It estimates that that would cost...

$1.5 trillion just in the first year. Were that to happen with many, many people killed? And it plays out a number of scenarios, but it's been done with some in-depth reporting by Bloomberg. So look at that on the Bloomberg terminal today. While those debates are taking place in The Hague today, countries across Europe are still trying to parse what Donald Trump's trade policies are going to mean for them. Ireland chief

chief among those, one of the most exposed countries in Europe because of its large technology and pharmaceutical sectors. Ireland's Finance Minister, Pascal Donoghue, has said that if tariffs in a worst-case scenario were to be applied in the pharmaceutical sector, that could result in the potential loss of up to 75,000 jobs.

in Ireland. I was speaking to Pascal Donoghue, who's also president of the Eurogroup Forum of Euro Area Finance Ministers at Bloomberg's Future of Finance event in Dublin. And I started by asking him for his reaction to events in the Middle East and the potential economic risks that that could pose for Europe.

So I'm always very conscious that when we are talking about economics, as critically as important as it is, we're also talking about people losing their lives. We're talking about stability as such a critical part of the world and what that could mean for all the countries, the communities who are there.

So while recognising that, of course, I do have to acknowledge the economic risks that are there. There are two in particular. The first one that you've just identified there is what could happen from an energy and trade perspective, the price of energy, ability of access for goods to move around the world. At

two of our more recent crises from the pandemic to the aftermath of the pandemic. We've seen what is the effect on the world economy when the price of energy and supply chains don't function. And of course, exactly at the moment in which global sentiment with regard to trade is already in a low place, an event like this again creates a further risk with regard to that.

But Stephen, from a European and Irish perspective, it's important as we respond back to that, we focus in on what we can control ourselves. We focus in on the policy instruments that are available to us.

and we've an increasingly clear understanding of what that is within the European Union, which we're working to deliver. And from an Irish point of view, we can't influence what's going to happen with global trade, but we can influence how competitive our economy is, the investment decisions that we make, and the very qualities that Mike highlighted in his address there regarding the premium and value that we place on openness. So we can focus on that and we can do a good job and a better job than that in the time ahead.

This is of course a risk added on top of the other upheaval that's happened in the global economic order when it comes to trade tariffs coming out of the United States and the response that's being formulated by the European Union to that with negotiations ongoing as well.

How do you see Ireland being particularly exposed to those risks, given all of the tries that we have to US companies and the US companies that are based here as well? So, of course, it is a benefit of the strength. It is a consequence of the strength of the relationship in the first place.

that if that relationship from a trade point of view changes in any way, the consequence of what it can mean for a very open economy like the Irish economy are very well known. And everybody in this room will be aware of what they will be from a trade point of view, an investment perspective. They will be aware of how that could affect us. But again, I think it's important as we look at those risks to be aware of the strengths the Irish economy does have in dealing with them.

We've never had more people at work in Ireland than we do at the moment. When I started off studying economics, we had a persistently durable long-term unemployment rate of 14%. We're now at 4%. We've public finances that are in surplus.

And we have a foreign direct investment relationship with America that's responsible for well over 100,000 jobs within America. Lots of investment in America. And we have a very diversified set of companies now present in Ireland here as well. And they've been present here for decades. So there are challenges, but we are well placed to deal with them and we will.

The pharma tariffs is one thing that, you know, President Trump has promised that those will come very soon. He said that last week. That's a sector where we know that Ireland has particular exposure as well. How are you quantifying those risks? How serious do you see that as being potential damage to the Irish economy? So it's very difficult to quantify what the risks could be while a decision has yet to be made regarding what America may do. From a general point of view, the macroeconomic modelling we've done for the Irish economy

would indicate that there could be approximately 75,000 jobs that could be affected by it across the medium term, with 20 to 25 of those affected across next year.

And it's indicated that from a growth perspective, there could be one to one and a half points of growth that we can lose across the medium term. But again, to put that in the context of what our strengths are, with 2.7 million people at work, and we have a growth outlook for our economy even now of two, maybe even more than 2% per year.

So those risks could materialise, they will become clearer in the time ahead. But the reason why these companies have part of their global supply chains here in Ireland is because we've the skill, the experience and the competitiveness built up to keep them in our country.

And we will look then at how we can maintain that, even if the trade environment around it does begin to change. What sort of tools would you be looking at? I mean, if you're talking about there being a potential of 75,000 job losses? Well, in terms of the job losses, it's not really jobs that could be lost or that could happen. It could also be jobs that might otherwise not be created.

And again, looking at all of that, we still believe if that were to happen, it would happen at a time in which the number of people at work in Ireland would still be by our standards at a historic high. In terms of the decisions that are available to us to respond back,

It is many of the matters we're working on at the moment. How we can increase investment levels within our economy. If you look at Mike's article in the Business Post yesterday about Ireland, he talked about our strengths, but he also pointed to the need to invest. He also talked about the need to maintain openness within our economy.

And Minister Chambers and I, who as you know is the Minister who focuses a lot on our public expenditure, are looking at the investment decisions we can make in energy, in infrastructure in the next few years that could strengthen our economy at a moment of change. So they're the big decisions that we're looking at at the moment.

This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio, the Bloomberg Business App and Bloomberg.com.

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