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Daybreak Weekend: Jobs Preview, France Conference, China-Iran Relations
2025/6/27
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
A
Aditi Rashkina
A
Alan Katz
J
Javier Blas
J
Jean d'Albart
J
Jenny Marsh
N
Nicolas Erronimus
S
Stephen Carroll
S
Stuart Paul
Stuart Paul: 五月份的个人收入和支出报告显示出滞胀的迹象，个人支出下降，收入增长低于预期，但核心通胀略高于预期。关税转嫁导致消费者减少支出，尤其是在可自由支配的服务类别上。虽然劳动收入仍然强劲，但转移支付大幅下降，消费者感到收入减少的压力。我预计六月份的就业报告将增加12万个工作岗位，但风险偏向下行，失业率可能上升至4.3%。
Javier Blas: 目前原油价格合理，市场认为中东的动荡已经过去，伊朗的石油产量将继续，霍尔木兹海峡没有关闭的风险，OPEC石油卡特尔将继续在夏季增加产量。石油供应过剩，随着OPEC向市场投放更多石油，石油供应过剩肯定会增加。以色列和伊朗冲突期间的高油价促使美国页岩油生产商锁定高价进行对冲，美国石油产量可能会高于预期，这将加剧石油供应过剩。我们有足够的石油，可能石油太多了，到夏季末，全球经济将沉浸在石油中。
Tom Busby: 感谢两位专家的分析，就业数据和原油市场对经济走向至关重要。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes the May personal income and outlays report, revealing a stagflationary trend with declining spending and income, and slightly higher core inflation. The impact of tariffs, particularly on consumer spending and the auto industry, is discussed, along with expectations for the upcoming June jobs report, which is anticipated to show slower hiring and a rise in the unemployment rate.
- May personal income and outlays report showed declining spending and income, higher core inflation
- Tariffs, especially on China, impacted consumer spending
- June jobs report expected to show around 120,000 jobs added, unemployment rate to rise to 4.3%
Shownotes Transcript