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cover of episode Daybreak Weekend: US Home Sales, Europe Stocks, Softbank Investment

Daybreak Weekend: US Home Sales, Europe Stocks, Softbank Investment

2024/12/21
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript
People
C
Catherine Thorbeck
D
Doug Krisner
D
Drew Redding
L
Lucy Baldwin
M
Mary Ross Gilbert
M
Michael Masika
S
Stephen Carroll
T
Tom Busby
Topics
Tom Busby: 本节目首先关注美国50万亿美元的住房市场。2024年，由于房价高企、贷款利率居高不下以及房屋供应短缺，住房市场表现低迷。然而，11月的新房销售数据可能带来转机，并且对2025年的市场前景持乐观态度。 Drew Redding: 新房市场表现好于预期，但仍有放缓迹象。南方地区受飓风影响较大，但预计会反弹。Lenar公司的订单低于预期，也表明市场正在放缓。2025年，市场将呈现区域差异，全国都面临承受能力和高利率的挑战，但南方地区的供应问题更为突出。南方地区现有房屋供应量增加，达到甚至超过2019年的水平。佛罗里达州和德克萨斯州等热门房地产市场的库存上升，可能意味着市场饱和。由于现有房屋供应增加，建筑商可能需要采取更积极的定价和激励措施，这可能会对当地市场的房价造成压力。不同价位段的房屋激励措施有所不同，低端市场主要采用融资激励，高端市场则倾向于提供房屋升级。尽管美联储三次降息，但30年期抵押贷款利率仍超过7%，这与市场预期不符，原因是经济依然强劲，以及新政府的政策可能导致通货膨胀。 Mary Ross Gilbert: 美国零售业在圣诞节购物季表现良好，消费者支出强劲推动了GDP增长。Aritzia和Abercrombie & Fitch等专业服装零售商以及Nordstrom等百货公司在假日季表现出色。Kohl's公司由于商品问题面临业绩下滑的风险。折扣店在假日季销售强劲，预计将成为业绩优异者。高通胀导致消费者购物习惯发生变化，高收入人群也开始光顾折扣店和沃尔玛等平价商店。沃尔玛通过提供送货服务和Walmart Plus会员计划等方式提升了消费者体验，从而获得了市场份额。过去一年，许多零售商关闭门店或申请破产，小型零售商面临越来越大的压力。零售商的经营状况取决于其自身的经营策略和财务状况，负债过高且经营不善的零售商更容易面临困境。Kohl's公司经营不善，导致业绩下滑，需要时间才能扭转局面。Nordstrom公司通过加强全线业务和发展折扣业务提升了业绩。Macy's公司计划关闭约150家门店。 Stephen Carroll: 2024年欧洲政治局势动荡，对欧洲股市造成影响，投资者关注2025年的前景。欧洲股市今年表现逊于美国股市，预计2025年欧洲斯托克600指数涨幅将不到3%，而标普500指数涨幅预计为7.5%。尽管斯托克600指数12月有所上涨，但今年整体表现不佳。尽管存在不确定性，一些投资者仍然对欧洲股市持乐观态度。 Lucy Baldwin: 美国政策可能推动美国经济增长，但同时也可能导致通货膨胀，因此预计美国股市将继续跑赢欧洲股市。建议投资者将美国和欧洲股市进行组合投资，以分散风险。欧洲央行降息、冲突解决以及中国刺激措施等因素可能成为欧洲股市的催化剂。预计中国将在2025年采取财政刺激措施，这将有利于欧洲股市。中国需要谨慎处理房地产市场问题，同时实施刺激措施。预计中国财政刺激措施将有利于欧洲的某些行业，例如奢侈品行业。除了与中国相关的奢侈品行业外，欧洲股市还有哪些其他增长点？乌克兰重建、对美国经济的积极影响以及潜在的贸易谈判等因素可能成为欧洲股市的增长点。美国可能要求欧洲汽车制造商在美国投资建厂，以换取进入美国市场的准入。美国经济是2025年欧洲股市的最大不确定因素。 Michael Masika: 大多数策略师预计斯托克600指数将在2025年收于530点以上。欧洲2025年的每股收益增长预期为8%，略低于美国。欧洲股市面临政治不稳定和与美国股市相比表现不佳的问题。2025年欧洲政治动荡可能持续存在，对股市造成影响。欧洲政治不稳定通常是暂时的，但欧洲似乎有反复出现这种情况的倾向。欧洲经济增长缓慢，需要采取更多措施来刺激增长。美国股市，特别是与人工智能相关的股票，表现强劲，吸引了投资者的兴趣，而欧洲股市相对逊色。被动型投资导致资金流向美国股市，对欧洲股市不利。与美国股市相比，欧洲股市估值较低，存在潜在的投资机会。欧洲股市估值较低，存在潜在的投资机会，但需要催化剂来缩小与美国股市的估值差距。由于行业构成差异，欧洲股市与美国股市的估值差距不可能完全消除，但在某些行业仍存在缩小差距的可能性。欧洲奢侈品和制药行业在2025年的前景如何？奢侈品行业未来的增长将取决于中国消费者的需求，而制药行业的前景则取决于美国的政策。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What are the expectations for November new home sales in the US, and how do they compare to the overall 2024 housing market?

November new home sales are expected to show a sequential bump, similar to the rise in housing starts. This is partly due to a snapback in the South, which saw a 30% decline last month due to hurricane disruptions. However, the new home market has slowed due to high lending rates and affordability issues, making 2024 one of the slowest years for home sales in decades.

Why is the US retail sector performing well despite high inflation and economic uncertainty?

The US retail sector is performing well because consumer spending remains strong, as evidenced by the 3.2% GDP growth, which exceeded estimates. Specialty apparel retailers like Aritzia and Abercrombie & Fitch are outperforming, and off-price retailers like Nordstrom and Walmart are attracting a broader range of consumers, including higher-income shoppers.

What are the key factors driving the performance of European equities in 2025, and what are the risks?

European equities are expected to underperform US equities, with the Stoxx 600 forecast to gain less than 3% by the end of 2025. Key factors include political instability in France and Germany, looming elections, and trade tariffs. However, potential Chinese stimulus, ECB rate cuts, and a resolution of global conflicts could provide support.

What is SoftBank's $100 billion investment in the US, and where will the funds come from?

SoftBank's CEO, Masayoshi Son, has pledged to invest $100 billion in the US over the next four years, primarily in artificial intelligence and related infrastructure. The funds are not currently available on SoftBank's balance sheet, and Son may need to raise the money or sell assets in the portfolio. This investment was announced alongside President-elect Trump at Mar-a-Lago, and it is unclear how much of it was pre-planned.

What are the potential benefits and challenges of a merger between Honda and Nissan?

A merger between Honda and Nissan could create the world's third-largest carmaker, enhancing their global competitiveness, especially against Toyota. The merger would help them address excess capacity in Japan due to a declining domestic market and intensify efforts in electric vehicle (EV) development. However, they face competition from China in the EV market, and they may need to adapt their manufacturing processes to be more EV-focused.

Shownotes Transcript

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

  • In the US – a preview of new home sales and retail outlook.
  • In the UK – a look at what’s on the horizon for the European stock markets.
  • In Asia – a look at Softbank’s pledge to invest $100 billion in the U-S over the next four years, and a look at a potential merger between Honda and Nissan.

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